12 Years After Sewol.

• 12 years ago today, 304 people left this world in cold waters.
• In an editorial, Kyunghyang Shinmun noted, “The promise to share the burden carried by victims must not end as a mere slogan.”
• The Basic Law on Life Safety, which institutionalizes disaster investigations, has yet to pass a single standing committee.
• Recommendations from the 2022 Special Investigation Committee on Social Disasters remain unimplemented.
• There is still not a single proper memorial space.
• Support for trauma treatment for bereaved families expires next year.
• Related Link.
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What Matters Now.

“Not a small deal, but a grand bargain.”.

• It means a significant and comprehensive agreement is needed. Donald Trump (U.S. President) said, “Something could happen within two days,” adding, “I think we’re close to a conclusion.”
• JD Vance (U.S. Vice President) emphasized, “If Iran is willing to act as a normal state, we are also willing to treat it as a normal state economically.” The offer is, “Abandon nuclear weapons, and we’ll invite you into the global economy.”
• According to Bloomberg, Iran is considering temporarily halting oil shipments to avoid conflict with the U.S.
• On the first day of the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, over 10 ships unrelated to Iran passed through, while 14 ships linked to Iran turned back under U.S. military orders.
• The atmosphere has improved, but the key question remains: Will Iran abandon its nuclear program?
• The 21st is the day the two-week ceasefire period ends.
• Related Link.

Secured Three Months of Crude Oil.

• Kang Hoon-sik (Chief of Staff to the President) secured the volume during his special envoy visits to Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kazakhstan, Qatar, and others. The agreement covers 273 million barrels to be imported by year’s end.
• Naphtha supplies were also secured, up to 2.1 million tons—enough for over a month of use.

Israel-Lebanon Talks After 33 Years.

• The U.S. seeks to separate the Israel-Lebanon issue from U.S.-Iran negotiations.
• They’ve taken seats at the table, but positions remain vastly divergent. With Hezbollah (Lebanese armed faction) absent, Israel’s demand for its disarmament leaves little common ground.

Kim Bu-gyeom: Lee Jin-suk = 44:25.

• Kim Bu-gyeom (former Prime Minister) is projected to win overwhelmingly in a poll. The result assumes Lee Jin-suk (former Chair of the Korea Communications Commission) unifies with the People Power Party candidate for a two-way race.
• If facing Joo Ho-young (Vice Speaker of the National Assembly), the gap widens to 44:16.
• In a multi-candidate race without unification, the gap expands further.
• The data comes from a Korea Research phone interview survey. Response rate: 13.6%, margin of error: ±3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence level.
• Related Link.

“Monetary Policy for Secondary Middle East Risk Fallout.”.

• These were remarks by Shin Hyun-song (Governor of the Bank of Korea nominee) during his confirmation hearing.
• “The core of monetary policy is price stability,” and while “the war’s impact has not yet translated into core inflation,” he added, “if it spreads to core prices or inflation expectations, monetary policy must be deployed.”
• Controversy over foreign currency assets was resolved by liquidating them all and repatriating in won. Regarding the false residency allegations, he stated, “I regret it.”

Deep Dive.

March Import Prices Surge 16.1%.

• Highest increase since the foreign exchange crisis.
• Crude oil and naphtha rose 89% and 46%, respectively.
• Export prices also jumped 16.3%. Diesel and jet fuel soared 121% and 94%.

Creating 10 Seoul National Universities? Start with 4.

• Three regional national universities will be selected for concentrated support of 100 billion won each.
• Branded colleges and AI hub universities will be packaged together.
• The branded college model—like the ‘Dyson Engineering School’ or ‘Rolls-Royce Degree Apprenticeship’—involves corporations developing curricula, supporting R&D, and even guaranteeing employment.

Creating a Regulatory Czar.

• Kim Jeong-gwan (Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy): “Looking at the regulations, the support—someone like a czar who could handle this all at once would be ideal.”
• Lee Jae-myung: “That’s our style. It’s genuinely needed.”
• The exchange occurred yesterday at the Regulatory Rationalization Committee meeting. A ‘czar’ refers to someone with full authority.
• Lee Jae-myung emphasized, “Regulatory rationalization is our destiny.” He proposed, “If the committee thinks it must be done but the ministry concludes it cannot, report it to the Blue House. I’ll settle it.”

Work Hard, But Not Too Hard to Cause Trouble.

• Lee Jae-myung also said this:
• “I came to this position through public evaluation of my proactive administration, but on the other hand, haven’t I been suffering for life because of it? It’s also inappropriate that working hard leads to investigations and audits, while not working hard avoids problems.”
• He added, “The Office for Government Policy Coordination should manage this well.”
• This was likely a reference to cases like Daejang-dong or Seongnam FC.

Why Moon Jae-in’s Regulatory Sandbox Failed.

• Regulatory-free zones were created and regulations relaxed for fixed periods, but without actual legal revisions, projects often halted. Seo Myung-hoon (News1 Deputy General Manager) identifies two causes:
• First, deregulation devolved into a numbers game, and
• Second, businesses failed to engage.
• “The bureaucracy won’t actively innovate when risks remain but rewards vanish,” he notes. The government must absorb risks and offer incentives to build trust and collaboration.
• Related Link.

Youth Unemployment Hits 7.4%.

• Quarterly unemployment rates are the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic. Assessments suggest a job market shock in the information and communications sector has begun.
• Total employment across all ages increased by 180,000, but youth employment (ages 15–29) fell by 160,000.
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Another Take.

“Did Sangju Go to a Karaoke Bar?”.

• Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party Leader) and Kim Min-su (People Power Party Supreme Council Member) posed for a photo in front of the U.S. Capitol in Washington. Both have radiant expressions.
• With 49 days until the election, the People Power Party has yet to secure a Gyeonggi governor candidate.
• Kim Jong-hyeok (former People Power Party Supreme Council Member) criticized, “I don’t want to comment on the photo, but People Power Party candidates running in local elections are in tears.”
• Jo Groothuis (Republican National Committee Chairman), whom Jang Dong-hyeok met, is a proponent of election fraud conspiracy theories.
• Bae Hyun-jin (People Power Party lawmaker) said, “I’m worried they’re giving up on the election.”
• Related Link.
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Claims of $700,000 Paid to North Korean Agent for Visit.

• Bang Yong-cheol (former Ssangbangwool vice chairman) made the statement during a National Assembly hearing. He claims he met Ri Ho-nam (North Korean agent) in the Philippines in July 2019 and that Kim Sung-tae (then Ssangbangwool chairman) personally handed money to Ri.
• The Democratic Party insists this is untrue, citing Ri’s entry and exit records.
• Chosun Ilbo editorialized, “The Democratic Party has predetermined its conclusion and refuses to acknowledge any testimony or evidence that contradicts it, instead browbeating dissent.”
• Park Sang-yong (then lead investigator) argued, “Despite the world changing, Kim Sung-tae and Bang Yong-cheol’s testimony about sending payment for a North Korea visit has not wavered—a sign of its truth.” The alcohol-fueled party, he added, is irrelevant to the core issue.
• Related Link.
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“If Not for the Gangster Rumors, We’d Have Won the 2022 Election.”.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) wrote this on X.
• “It’s old news now, but if not for the gangster rumors, if not for the fabricated corruption claims about Daejang-dong, the election result would have been completely different. The margin was 0.73 percentage points—less than one in a hundred.”
• Lee added, “I assumed those who helped ‘steal’ the election would have been rewarded with money or positions,” citing a Newstapa article titled “ ‘Lee Jae-myung False Accusations’ Gangster Family, City Council Candidate Nomination Immediately After Yoon Suk-yeol’s Victory.”
• The implication: the city council nomination might have been a reward for the smear campaign.
• The People Power Party raised the gangster involvement allegations based on statements by Park Cheol-min (International Mafia Group operative). Park’s lawyer, Jang Young-ha (attorney), was sentenced to one year in prison, suspended for two years, for spreading false information.
• Related Link.
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“Why Can’t He Just Say He Didn’t Take the Cartier?”.

• This is about Jeon Jae-soo (Democratic Party lawmaker), who received the party nomination for Busan mayor. On YTN Radio, when asked, “What’s the story with the Cartier watch?” he replied, “It’s a closed case.”
• Han Dong-hoon (former People Power Party leader), running as an independent in Busan Buk-gap, pointed out, “If Jeon becomes mayor, will he keep public officials who took bribes?”
• Jeon resigned as Minister of Oceans and Fisheries when the Unification Church money controversy emerged. The joint police-prosecutor investigation team closed the case, ruling no charges.
• Within the People Power Party, some argue Han Dong-hoon’s expulsion should be revoked and he should be reinstated. Kwak Gyu-taek (People Power Party Chief Floor Spokesperson) said, “It’s best to unify behind a People Power Party candidate.”

How the Ukraine War Differs from the Iran War.

• Four years ago, low interest rates allowed inflation to be curbed by raising them.
• The situation is far worse now: consumption is sluggish, prices are rising, and interest rates are already high.
• Oh Keon-young (Shinhan Premier Pathfinder Director) noted, “Chronic high inflation is not only difficult to treat but also risks recurring easily even after price stability is achieved.”
• Related Link.

Can South Korea’s Nuclear Submarines Be Guaranteed Not to Use Nuclear Weapons Material?

• Rafael Grossi (IAEA Director General) said this at a press briefing.
• The implication is that building nuclear submarines would require IAEA inspections.
• Cho Jung (Minister of Foreign Affairs) emphasized, “South Korea is a country that has fully fulfilled its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.”

All Incumbent Democratic Governors Fail to Secure Nominations.

• Assessments suggest they were outmaneuvered by candidates backed by hardline party loyalists.
• Observers note that the 50-50 split between public polls and party-member voting disadvantaged moderates.
• All nine People Power Party incumbents secured nominations.

Senior Money: 4,604 Trillion Won.

• Assets of those aged 60+ grew from 3,684 trillion won in 2022 to 4,604 trillion won last year.
• Less than 1% have written wills. The Dong-A Ilbo analyzed, “The scale of wealth transfer has grown, but postmortem planning remains nonexistent.”
• Inheritance disputes quadrupled over 10 years: 771 cases in 2014 vs. 3,075 in 2024.

The Fix.

300 Billion Won Shortfall Forces Company Sale.

• Cheongho Nice is up for sale. After founder Jung Hwi-dong’s death, an inheritance tax of nearly 300 billion won emerged—but the family has no cash.
• The inherited stake is 75%. To pay the tax, they must sell shares.
• Jung Seok-yoon (Hanyang University Business School professor) noted, “South Korea’s inheritance tax cherry-picks the worst aspects of the U.S. and Japan.”
• The U.S. levies an estate tax like Korea’s but exempts the first $13.6 million. Korea? Only 500 million won is deductible.
• Japan’s top inheritance tax rate is 55%, but it taxes based on the heir’s share—not the total estate.
• Many SMEs like Cheongho Nice have surrendered management rights due to inheritance taxes: Seven3, Nongwoo Bio, and Unidus, among others.
• Cho Bong-hyun (IBK Economic Research Institute director) emphasized, “Succession isn’t just wealth transfer—it’s passing on management expertise, corporate value, relationships, and culture. These are accumulated economic assets and responsibilities.”
• Taxes must be paid. But the system should allow payment without destabilizing succession.
• Germany’s business inheritance model could be an alternative: If companies maintain employment and operations for a set period, they receive annual tax reductions.
• A mileage-based system reflecting past corporate tax contributions could also be considered.
• Related Link.

Can’t Tax Over 50 Million Won in Stock Gains?

• When scrapping the 2024 financial investment income tax, Lee Jae-myung (then Democratic Party leader) said, “The stock market is too volatile.”
• Lee So-young (Democratic Party lawmaker) remarked, “If KOSPI stabilizes above 3,000 and reaches 4,000, market participants might accept the new tax.”
• Oh Geon-ho (chair of “Welfare State We Make”) pointed out, “The time is now.”
• As of last year, 14.42 million people invested in stocks—40% of the working-age population. Not every citizen is a stock investor, and the financial investment tax is levied only on the wealthy. Gains up to 50 million won are tax-exempt, so those with smaller profits pay nothing.
• “A young person earning 2 million won monthly pays 20,000 won in income tax each month. Is it fair to grant tax exemptions to financial elites earning hundreds of millions in investment income?”

Civil Servants to Directly Apply for Livelihood Support to Crisis Households.

• Increasing cases of familial murder followed by suicide have highlighted the need to address the limitations of the current application-based system.
• For crisis households with a history of emergency welfare support—especially those with minors or disabled members where obtaining consent is difficult—procedures and regulations will be revised to allow responsible civil servants to apply on their behalf.
• Even if overpayments occur, the civil servants in charge will not be held accountable.

ICYMI.

Why Claude Mythos Cannot Be Disclosed.

• Because it is so powerful that it could be weaponized to exploit security flaws.
• In the U.S., the White House and the Federal Reserve (FED) have begun preparing countermeasures, and in South Korea, the Ministry of Science and ICT convened platform companies for an inspection meeting.
• This is an era where anyone can become a hacker. While discovering vulnerabilities and launching attacks used to take years, now it happens within hours.

A 38.3 Billion Won Jamboree Youth Center Costs 260 Million Won Annually in Maintenance—While Idle for Nearly Two Years.

• A facility left unused for nearly two years, still without a purpose.
• Lee Jung-hyun (co-representative of Jeonbuk Environmental Movement Alliance) stated, “A plan should be found to utilize it as a tourism and leisure facility, as originally intended.”

Upstage Joins the 1 Trillion Won Unicorn Club.

• It has finalized a Series C investment of 180 billion won, bringing cumulative funding to 400 billion won.
• Founded in 2020, Upstage is participating in the National AI Model Project. In January, it signed an MOU to acquire the portal Daum.

Meta’s AI Clone.

• Imagine a CEO going on vacation and leaving work to an AI clone.
• Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg (Meta CEO) clone is designed for that purpose.
• The goal is to develop it to a level where employees cannot detect it’s an AI clone.
• Related Link.

Hangang Bus Co., Ltd.’s Eroding Capital.

• Cumulative operating losses amount to 10.5 billion won. Last year alone, it incurred 9.4 billion won in operating losses.
• Operations began on September 19 but were suspended after just ten days. Service resumed on November 1 but four piers were halted after only fifteen days. All routes normalized again starting March 1.

Worth Reading.

Welfare as an Afterthought? How the Lee Jae-myung Government Handles Social Services.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) continues to emphasize support for vulnerable groups and expanding safety nets.
• However, Woo Suk-jin (Professor at Myongji University) pointed out, “Restoring growth engines is the priority, expanding investment is key, and AI and industrial policy are the future solutions,” adding, “welfare is merely a supplementary device to mitigate shocks that may occur during this process.”
• Woo stressed, “Before discussing labor market flexibility, the government must first prove that ‘even if you lose your job, your life won’t collapse.’”
• Before claiming to overcome polarization, the government must show evidence that welfare—even if not the foremost priority—is not lagging at the very back of the national agenda.
• Expanding employment insurance,
• institutionalizing sick leave benefits,
• strengthening state responsibility for care,
• stabilizing housing for youth and the homeless,
• expanding mid-career job training,
• and integrating platform workers and freelancers into social insurance—these blueprints must be placed at the forefront.
• “The role of politics should not stop at consoling those pushed out by the market. It must lie in collectively sharing the risks the market creates. A government should not just boast about technological and growth speed, but cling to those left behind by change until the end. Growth does not automatically lead to shared prosperity. It is ultimately institutions that fill the gap.”
• Related Link.

Can One Household, One Home Be Achieved Without Lowering Prices?

• It’s not that people can’t buy homes because they don’t exist—it’s that they can’t afford them. Lee Wan (independent researcher) criticized the Lee Jae-myung government for sending unclear messages.
• Housing prices must fall sufficiently for people to afford homes, yet mortgage loans alone increased by 52 trillion won last year. If prices drop, will these borrowers simply stand by?
• There are limits to immediately increasing supply, and as homeownership rates rise, rental supply shrinks and mobility becomes harder.
• Lee Wan questioned, “Even now, no one dares to upset the 15 million shareholders—how can anyone manage the expectations and political power of an even larger class of homeowners?”
• “‘Buying a home’ has become a sacred, untouchable goal that no party dares challenge, yet policies focused on it cause immense harm. If homeownership grows, that harm may worsen.”
• “The priority should be expanding public housing, not punishing multiple homeowners,” he argued.
• Related Link.

After “Complete Investigation Deprivation,” Full Police Autonomy?

• It means moving toward complete monopoly of investigative authority by the police.
• Kim Kyu-hyun (lawyer) pointed out, “Amid fixation on the supplementary investigation debate, discussions on controlling prosecutorial power as a whole have vanished.”
• Some argue, “We can fix side effects later,” but Kim criticized, “The Democratic Party seems to take credit for reform while shifting responsibility to the president.”
• If supplementary investigation authority is abolished, prosecutors must decide indictments based solely on paperwork. Even if police cover up cases or sway investigations, prosecutors or courts have no way to correct them. It doesn’t solve the root problem: prosecutors could still suppress or overindulge in indictments.
• Kim emphasized, “The solution lies not in abolishing supplementary investigations but in civic oversight mechanisms like prosecution review committees.”
• Related Link.

How to Die Well.

• Kim Soo-dong (care activist) sees the essence of “well-dying” as dialogue with family.
• Where one wishes to spend their final days and the extent of medical treatment desired must be discussed with family. Without prior conversation, chaos ensues.
• Typically, when parents broach the topic, children respond, “Don’t say such things, it’s too early.” For children? It’s a topic they struggle to initiate with parents.
• Kim advised, “One must contemplate death before it’s too late and communicate to family the form of passing they desire.”
• Related Link.

Extending Non-Regular Worker Contracts? Restricting Grounds Comes First.

• Tears of fixed-term workers who face layoffs and rehiring every 1 year and 11 months. While the government’s move to resolve a 20-year-old issue is welcome, critics argue that extending contract periods misses the point.
• 24% of all workers are fixed-term. This rose from 19% five years ago.
• Kim Yu-seon (Korea Labor and Society Institute Chairperson) pointed out, “The system allows rampant use of fixed-term contracts even for permanent, ongoing roles.”
• Labor demands have remained unchanged for 20 years: fixed-term contracts should only be permitted exceptionally when objective grounds exist. Without such grounds, contracts should be considered indefinite.
• The argument is that reforms must go beyond lamenting side effects of contract limits and instead dismantle the labor market’s dual structure.

Why Labor Market Reforms Keep Failing.

• Lee Cheol-seung (Sogang University professor) pointed out, “The issue lies not in a simple clash of interests but in a structure where exchange itself cannot occur.”
• Large-company regular workers have no reason to accept uncertain big deals, while small-business workers lack organizational foundations.
• Lee emphasized the need for a system supporting the following three groups:
• First, the unorganized, nominally regular white-collar workers in their late 40s and 50s forced into early retirement from large companies,
• Second, non-regular, dispatched, special-employment, subcontracted, and small-business workers whose contracts may end at any moment,
• Third, young people in their 20s and early 30s without experience in a job market that only hires those with prior careers.
• Lee’s proposals include:
• First, employment insurance criteria should be made more flexible. Job seekers and early retirees should receive support for retraining.
• Second, a skill database and matching system could be developed.
• The idea is to create new jobs without relying on the large-corporation-centric structure.
• Related Link.