Early Voting Rate Hits Record High.

• 23.5%. The Democratic Party interpreted it as “the people’s will to judge rebellion,” while the People Power Party framed it as “judgment against the Democratic Party and the Lee Jae-myung administration.”
• In 2022, the rate was 20.6%.
• High early voting rates were recorded in competitive districts: 23.8% in Seoul and 25.6% in Busan Buk-gap.
• Pyeongtaek-eul’s 18.4% was attributed to the “Hwang Kyo-ahn (Freedom and Innovation candidate) effect,” with analysis suggesting his claims of early voting being “electoral fraud” suppressed turnout.
• Lee Jae-myung (President) posted on X, “The price of political apathy is being ruled by the worst kind of scum,” adding, “If any politicians or political groups find this statement uncomfortable, they are the very corrupt vested interests.” Critics argue this constitutes election interference rather than mere voter encouragement.
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What Matters Now.

“Is Half a Mark Acceptable?” Controversy.

• “Is it acceptable if the circle mark is incomplete, only half-filled?”
• Lee Jae-myung (President) was caught on camera gesturing and calling out while holding a ballot paper during voting. Though the paper was visible, the vote itself was not.
• When a polling official said, “You shouldn’t show the ballot,” he asked, “Is it okay if it’s only marked like this?” and “Won’t it be invalid?”
• He returned immediately, but the People Power Party protested, claiming, “The principle of secret voting was violated.”
• An election commission official countered, “The marked section wasn’t exposed, and the official didn’t see it.”

“A President 100x More Competent Than the ‘Prison Trio’.”.

• Jeong Ho-seong (Democratic Party leader) said this during a campaign rally. The “Prison Trio” refers to Lee Myung-bak (former president), Park Geun-hye (former president), and Yoon Suk-yeol (former president).
• Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party leader) said, “We ask for your judgment to prevent dictatorship.”
• A People Power Party lawmaker interviewed by *The Hankyoreh* said, “It will be effective in mobilizing the traditional conservative base in the Yeongnam region and bringing them to the polls,” but added, “Its scalability is questionable. Whether it can sway the swing voters—moderates who decide elections—remains uncertain.”
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You Never Know Until You Open the Lid.

• MBC PollM’s final aggregated survey shows the Democratic Party overwhelmingly leading, yet many districts remain tight.
• In Busan Buk-gap, both Han Dong-hoon (independent candidate) and Ha Jeong-woo (Democratic Party candidate) saw their support rise, splitting the base that previously backed Park Min-sik (People Power Party candidate).
• In Pyeongtaek-eul, Cho Kuk (Innovation Party candidate) surged to the lead. Though still within the margin of error, the decline in Kim Yong-nam’s (Democratic Party candidate) support did not fully transfer to Cho.
• Gyeonggi Province’s gap widened. Choo Mi-ae (Democratic Party candidate) holds a commanding lead. Busan’s gap also widened, with Jeon Jae-soo (Democratic Party candidate) pulling far ahead.
• Jeollabuk-do’s gap narrowed, making it uncertain whether Kim Kwan-young (independent candidate) will win.
• In Seoul, both Jeong Won-o (Democratic Party candidate) and Oh Se-hoon (People Power Party candidate) gained support, but the gap widened. Moderates are making up their minds, and base voters are consolidating. The margin is 3.8 percentage points.
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Deep Dive.

Trump Rejects Tentative Agreement.

• “I’ll make the final decision,” he convened a meeting, then abruptly canceled it. The sticking points remain the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and uranium exports.
• Pete Hegseth (U.S. Secretary of Defense) said, “We’re prepared to intervene again if necessary.”

‘AI for All,’ Service to Launch by Year’s End.

• Developing a sovereign AI foundation model under the banner of a “national AI.” Among four companies—LGAI Research Institute, SK Telecom, Upstage, and Motif Technologies—two will be selected as finalists.
• Initially, the service will be free for all citizens until 2028.

Starbucks No Longer Cool: Can Jeong Yong-jin Hold On?

• Refunds for prepaid balances begin today. The key question is how much of the 4.275 trillion won (as of late last year) will be withdrawn.
• The bigger issue is brand value. Where Starbucks once was a place people visited despite its high prices, it has now become one where customers feel judged by others.
• Starbucks Korea’s MD (merchandise) sales amount to around 280 billion won annually. Tumbler sales alone reach 3 million units per year. While beverage operating margins hover around 5–7%, MD margins exceed 20%. If the summer Frequent Buyer Event is canceled due to the ‘Tank Day’ controversy, the company could turn a loss this year.
• Jeong Yong-jin (E-Mart chairman)’s apology changed nothing.

Another Take.

How Much Has Jeong Yong-jin Profited from Starbucks?

• Starbucks Korea paid annual dividends of 106.2 billion won for the past three consecutive years. Total: 318.6 billion won.
• Emart, which holds 67.5% of Starbucks Korea, received 215 billion won. Emart also paid dividends of 53.6 billion won, 53.6 billion won, and 67 billion won over the past three years. Total: 174.1 billion won.
• Jeong Yong-jin (Chairman of Emart), who holds 29% of Emart, received 19.3 billion won in dividends last year alone.
• The story goes: the more we drink Starbucks, the more money flows to Emart, and the more Emart pays in dividends, the more Jeong Yong-jin profits.
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“Real Estate Isn’t Bread.”.

• It’s not something you can churn out at will. Chae Sang-wook (CEO of Connected Ground) warned, “The 2028 general election is at risk.” More dangerous than home prices are jeonse prices. Lessons must be learned from the failures of the Moon Jae-in administration.
• Even in a government where the president is the main driver, real estate remains a tough nut to crack for Lee Jae-myung. “Even if supply is increased immediately, it’ll take years—and amateurish measures, like putting out a fire at a hotteok shop, won’t suffice.”
• Criticism has grown so sharp that JoongAng Ilbo declared, “Even pro-government voices have turned.”
• Chae Sang-wook emphasized, “Increase rentals, not sales,” adding, “If we commit to building rental housing, there’s no reason not to offer floor-area-ratio incentives.” The call is for bold supply-side solutions.
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Deaths Rise, Funeral Homes Decline.

• Last year, deaths reached 363,000—up sharply from 318,000 in 2021.
• Funeral homes decreased from 1,107 to 1,075 in the same period.
• A three-day funeral now costs around 15 million won.
• Increasingly, families opt for two-day “no-casket” funerals, costing about 3 million won.
• Deaths are rising, but funeral costs are up, mourners are fewer, and the growth of single-person households and unclaimed deaths have squeezed funeral businesses’ profits.

The Fix.

Mandatory Closures for Big-box Stores Shifted to Weekdays.

• KDI report. Whether big-box stores close on weekdays or weekends, sales at nearby traditional markets have not decreased.
• Big-box store sales have rebounded. A natural outcome, as more customers visit on weekends than weekdays.
• Big-box stores are not substitutes for traditional markets. In fact, online consumption decreased after the weekday shift. The idea is that demand previously met online when stores were closed shifted to weekend shopping.
• Lee Jin-kook (KDI Senior Research Fellow) argued, “Discussions about the weekday shift should go beyond simple deregulation and consider how to foster a symbiotic structure for local distribution ecosystems.”
• Related Link.
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90,000 Public Rental Units? Only 3,200 So Far.

• Critics argue the target of 90,000 units by next year is unrealistic at the current pace. These are public rental homes where Korea Land & Housing Corporation and others purchase existing housing and resell it below market rates.
• The September 7th policy pledged to supply 140,000 new public rental units over five years—but progress remains sluggish.

Real GDP Up 3.6%, Real Income Just 0.4%.

• Household nominal income was 5.38 million won, real income 4.63 million won—up 2.4% and 0.4% respectively. After adjusting for inflation, it’s essentially stagnant.
• In Q1 this year, the bottom 20% ran a monthly deficit of 438,000 won, while the top 20% had a 3.445 million won surplus.
• The equivalized disposable income ratio between the top and bottom 20% widened to 6.6x.
• Woo Suk-jin (Myongji University Professor) analyzed, “In the past, export-driven conglomerates’ performance directly boosted domestic investment and consumption, but now the lag time has lengthened.”
• Related Link.

“If Information Warfare Had Breached North Korea, It Wouldn’t Exist Today.”.

• “They ignored my advice and failed.” These are the words of Oh Kong-dan (former Brookings Institution researcher), interviewed by Chosun Ilbo. He is regarded as a first-generation North Korea expert.
• Oh has long advocated focusing on information warfare to incite social revolution among North Koreans. “One plane’s worth of funding could run information campaigns. Of course, I only earned scorn. In the 40 years since, North Korea became a nuclear-armed state with multiple warheads.”
• Oh believes seeds of resistance exist in North Korea. He reportedly urged South Korean presidents to brainstorm with defectors—but it never happened.
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ICYMI.

NVIDIA Chips in Windows PCs.

• NVIDIA posted on X, “A new era of PC.”
• A horse with a shoe? Microsoft already tried and failed to create an AI PC—now NVIDIA claims it will succeed.
• Related Link.

UN Running on Empty.

• The U.S. and China have withheld $4.28 billion and $460 million in dues, respectively. The two countries, which cover 22% and 20% of the UN budget, are pulling out, pushing the organization toward bankruptcy.
• António Guterres (UN Secretary-General) stated, “The possibility of financial collapse is very real.”

24-Hour Foreign Exchange Trading Begins July 6.

• It’s part of the won’s globalization. The move also eases regulations to help Korea join Morgan Stanley’s developed-nation index.
• Large U.S. news could now trigger sharper won volatility.

Garlic Production and Consumption Both Decline.

• Jeju garlic procurement prices fell from 4,300 won last year to 3,800 won this year (per 1kg).
• Jeju garlic—over 90% of which is the Namdo variety used for kimchi seasoning—suffered as kimchi consumption dropped. Garlic cultivation area in Jeju shrank from 1,879 hectares in 2020 to 909 hectares last year.

Foreigners Spent Over 1 Trillion Won Monthly on Cards.

• In April alone, they spent 1.1532 trillion won. 1.56 million foreign tourists spent 740,000 won each.
• Shopping accounted for 45%, medical services 25%, food and beverages 13%, and accommodations 11%.

Worth Reading.

Does Chung Yong-jin Have the Right to Be Outraged?

• Chung Yong-jin (E-Mart Chairman) holds no legal authority over Starbucks Korea.
• Starbucks Korea is jointly controlled by E-Mart and GIC (Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund), which own 67.5% and 32.5% respectively. Chung holds only 28.9% of E-Mart and is an unregistered executive.
• The authority to dismiss Starbucks Korea’s CEO lies with its board of directors. Since Chung is not a board member, he holds no such authority.
• Lee Bong-hyun (Research Fellow at The Hankyoreh Economic and Social Research Institute) noted, “It’s not a norm but an abnormality for a board to fail in its independent role and merely act as a rubber stamp for controlling shareholders.”
• Related Link.

A Nation That Impeached a Failed President Twice.

• Nahm Yoon-kyung (Yonsei University Professor) predicted, “Even without political intervention, citizens will be resolute against a failed corporate leader.”
• Nahm defined the Starbucks Tank Day controversy as “the chairman’s ‘accumulated antics’ being read by employees as a license for immorality—so the issue isn’t systemic failure but leadership failure.”
• Meryl Streep (actor) once criticized Trump (then president-elect), saying, “When those in power mock and target people with far less privilege, power, or ability to fight back, we all lose.”
• “When those with immense power misuse it to humiliate minorities, victims, or the vulnerable, it’s read by some in a ‘brain rot’ state as permission to do the same to others. That’s how a ‘domino effect of immorality’ begins in a society.”
• Trump was re-elected, but South Koreans won’t tolerate such behavior. Will Chung Yong-jin hold out?
• Related Link.

Redistribution or Investment?

• Ministers clash over semiconductor industry profit allocation.
• Koo Yoon-cheol (Minister of Economy and Finance) stated, “Investing in semiconductor R&D is priority number one.”
• Park Hong-geun (Minister of Planning and Budget) emphasized, “We must invest properly while the tide is in.”
• Kim Jeong-gwan (Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy) also stressed, “What’s needed is not dispersion but concentration.”
• Kim Young-hoon (Minister of Employment and Labor) insisted, “We must resolve the polarized structure where performance-sharing is limited to regular workers and primary contractors.”
• In an editorial, The Hankyoreh pointed out, “This is not a matter of choosing between reinvestment and redistribution—we must find a rational balance.”
• Related Link.

Thank You, Samsung Electronics Union.

• Yoon Hong-sik (Inha University Professor) noted, “It is unfair to demand only Samsung Electronics workers provide social solidarity.”
• “It is irresponsible to turn Korean society into a ruthless jungle of every-man-for-himself and then demand workers suddenly become class-conscious laborers who care for the whole society’s well-being,” he added.
• Yoon Hong-sik emphasized, “Do not expect kinder workers—build broader systems.”
• A question Korean society has long ignored remains: “Who deserves the fruits of growth? It is time for the government and society to answer.”
• Related Link.

The Trap Thucydides Doesn’t Mention.

• The war between Athens and Sparta may have seemed like the world’s center, but Greece was a periphery under Persian dominance—and ultimately, the Persians, who brokered the peace treaty between the two, were the real winners.
• Yoon Bi (Sungkyunkwan University Professor) warned, “The spectacle of Athens and Sparta was absurd, but the fate of other city-states that took sides and fought to the death was even more tragic,” adding, “If we fail to see beyond what’s immediately visible, we risk losing what truly matters.”
• When Xi Jinping (Chinese President) met Donald Trump (U.S. President-elect), he declared, “There is no Thucydides Trap,” proposing to avoid conflict—but this made South Korea’s stance all the more critical. Yoon Bi cautioned, “A country like South Korea, standing between clashing U.S. and Chinese powers, risks grave danger if it acts rashly.”
• “This is an era where South Korea is projected to achieve $1 trillion in exports and rank among the world’s top five trading powers. Its responsibilities in the current international order have grown accordingly—not just to sell more goods.”
• Related Link.