Not Lifting the Blockade? Then Neither Are We.

• The U.S. has blockaded the Strait of Hormuz as warned. Ships entering the restricted zone without permission are subject to interception or seizure. Since Iran refuses to unblock the strait, the U.S. is retaliating by cutting off Iran’s financial lifeline.
• International oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel again. Since the war began, Iran has exported 1.85 million barrels per day, earning $4–5 billion.
• If the U.S. blocks Iran’s oil exports, another 2 million barrels per day will be cut from global supply.
• Mark Warner (U.S. Senator) told CNN, “I can’t understand how blockading the strait will pressure Iran to open it.” The battle of endurance has begun: “Who can hold out longer?”
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“You’ll Miss $4.”.

• Iran’s warning as the U.S. moved to blockade the Strait of Hormuz: “Enjoy the current prices.” It means such prices will never be seen again.
• Donald Trump (U.S. President) left room for dialogue: “I expect Iran will come back and give us everything we want.”
• Iran has dug in, while Trump is running out of time.

Hopes for Negotiation Spread Optimism in Stock Markets.

• Expectations persist that a deal will eventually be reached. Speculation also surfaces that a second round of talks could occur within days.
• The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq rose 1.02%, 0.63%, and 1.23% respectively. The S&P 500 has recovered to pre-war levels.
• Tech stocks like Oracle and Palantir led the index gains.
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What Matters Now.

Uranium Enrichment Cessation: The Core Issue.

• The U.S. demands are threefold.
• First, to share control of the Strait of Hormuz with the U.S.
• Second, to remove 60% enriched uranium from Iran.
• Third, to strip Iran of uranium enrichment rights for 20 years.
• The 20-year deprivation doubles the duration the U.S. proposed in February negotiations. From Trump’s perspective, having gone to war, he needs a stronger justification than the February terms.

“We’ll Destroy Everything Like in Gaza.”Israel has no intention of stopping the war. Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Prime Minister) visited southern Lebanon and said, “There’s still work to be done.” Southern Lebanon was a stronghold of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and where Hezbollah established itself. Lebanon’s Hezbollah is both a political and military organization—a state within a state—that operates hospitals, schools, and orphanages. It should not be dismissed as merely an Iranian puppet. Moon Byung-jun (former Dubai Consul General) noted, “Ironically, Hezbollah would not exist if Israel hadn’t invaded,” adding, “Israel created its own greatest enemy.”.

• Israel has no intention of stopping the war. Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Prime Minister) visited southern Lebanon and said, “There’s still work to be done.”
• Southern Lebanon was a stronghold of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and where Hezbollah established itself. Lebanon’s Hezbollah is both a political and military organization—a state within a state—that operates hospitals, schools, and orphanages. It should not be dismissed as merely an Iranian puppet.
• Moon Byung-jun (former Dubai Consul General) noted, “Ironically, Hezbollah would not exist if Israel hadn’t invaded,” adding, “Israel created its own greatest enemy.”
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“We’ll Turn the Nation Blue.”.

• Jung Chung-rae (Democratic Party Leader) said it. Local elections are 50 days away.
• The People Power Party’s keyword is “check on power.” Jeong Hee-yong (People Power Party Secretary-General) said, “If we fail to check the concentration of power, soft dictatorship begins.” Their goal is to hold Seoul, Busan, and Daegu.
• According to polls by Korean Gallup and Ace Research, Democratic Party candidates are leading significantly in Seoul, Busan, and Daegu. Expectations are growing that the Democratic Party will sweep all regions except Gyeongbuk.
• The Kyunghyang Shinmun identified three key variables: ① government approval ratings, ② conservative consolidation, and ③ economic conditions.
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“We Didn’t Even Know He Was Leaving.”.

• Yang Hyang-ja (People Power Party Supreme Council Member) said it.
• Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party Leader) left for a 5-night, 7-day U.S. visit without informing even the Supreme Council members.
• The People Power Party’s unified local election pledge is entirely focused on half-price jeonse (key money deposits) in the capital region.
• The Gyeonggi governor candidate recruitment received no takers—Yoo Seung-min (former Saenuri Party lawmaker), Ahn Cheol-soo (People Power Party lawmaker), and Kim Eun-hye (People Power Party lawmaker) all declined.
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Han Dong-hoon Secures a Home in Busan.

• Han Dong-hoon (former People Power Party Leader) officially announced his candidacy in the Busan Buk-gap by-election, stating, “I have secured a home in Manduk, Buk-gu, Busan.” He plans to run as an independent.
• The Buk-gap race is shaping up as a three-way contest. The Democratic Party plans to recruit Ha Jung-woo (Blue House AI Future Planning Chief). Cho Seung-rae (Democratic Party Secretary-General) said, “The likelihood of his candidacy has passed the 80% mark.” The People Power Party is likely to field Park Min-sik (former Minister of Patriots and Veterans Affairs).
• In a News Tomato poll on the 31st, Park Min-sik led with 24%, followed by Kim Doo-kwan (former Democratic Party lawmaker) at 20%, and Han Dong-hoon at 19%. While within the margin of error (±3.7 percentage points at 95% confidence level), without consolidation, the chances of victory remain slim.
• By-elections and re-elections could expand to as many as 14 constituencies. The local elections are overlapping with a mini-general election scenario.
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Deep Dive.

Britain Rejects U.S. Request—Third Time.

• It’s the third refusal. First, they denied access to military bases, then reversed it. They refused troop deployment. Now, they’ve declined to help block the Strait of Hormuz.
• The UK government stated it would not join the U.S.-led counter-blockade of Hormuz. This follows earlier rejections: denying base access during the war’s opening phase and lukewarm responses to deployment requests.
• Trump claimed, “Britain is sending minesweepers,” but it was untrue.
• Blocking Hormuz requires two carrier strike groups and over a dozen destroyers—roughly a third of the U.S. Navy’s combat fleet.
• Related Link.

NAFTA Prices Are Whatever They’re Called.

• The won-dollar exchange rate has risen again to 1,500 won.
• The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq indices recorded 1.02%, 0.63%, and 1.23% respectively.
• The U.S. consumer sentiment index is 47.6—the lowest since the survey began in 1946. South Korea’s is 107.0.
• NAFTA prices have surged nearly 80% compared to pre-war levels. While reserves can hold until mid-June, “we can’t guarantee supply from July onward,” officials warn.
• PP and PE prices—raw materials for cosmetic containers—have jumped 30%. K-beauty SME ODM manufacturers are bearing the full brunt of delayed deliveries and rising costs. The war is shaking even cosmetic containers and vinyl medicine pouches.
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T’way Air Enters Unpaid Leave.

• T’way Air has implemented unpaid leave for cabin crew, with a debt ratio of 3,483%—the highest among LCCs (low-cost carriers).
• Korean Air and Asiana have also entered emergency management, while Jin Air, Air Busan, and others are reducing unprofitable routes.
• For Korean Air, a $1 increase in international oil prices adds 45.5 billion won in costs, and a 10-won rise in exchange rates adds 55 billion won. With pre-war oil prices at $60–70, the industry now faces additional costs in the trillions of won.
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Another Take.

Swing Voters Trend Hipster—46% of Voters in Their 20s Are Nonpartisan.

• Results from Gallup Korea’s March survey. Up sharply from 33% in January last year.
• Nonpartisan rates among those in their 40s and 50s stand at 16% and 20% respectively. The overall average is 27%.
• Lee Jae-mook (Professor, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies) noted, “Rather than being apolitical (Apoliticals) indifferent or disinterested in politics, today’s 20s are closer to cognitively mobilized nonpartisans (Apartisans) or active nonpartisans who respond nimbly to individual issues like jobs and gender.”
• Lee Sun-woo (Professor, Jeonbuk National University) analyzed, “This reflects a party lag phenomenon—where the two major parties dominating the National Assembly fail to accommodate the demands of young voters in their 20s.”
• Cho Won-bin (Professor, Sungkyunkwan University) pointed out, “Under the single-member district system, where voters have no choice but to support the two major parties to avoid ‘wasted votes,’ the problem has no visible exit.”
• Related Link.

School Violence Insurance Market Swells to 60 Billion Won.

• The number of school violence insurance payouts from five non-life insurers jumped from 231 cases in 2021 to 3,443 cases in 2025.
• Law firms’ “full-package” services—covering school violence committee responses to civil and criminal litigation—cost 20–30 million won.
• The market is estimated at 17–60 billion won, potentially reaching hundreds of billions when litigation costs are included.
• Daelim Law Firm launched a School Violence Response Group, while YK hired former teachers as lawyers to operate its School Violence Center.
• Critics argue that school violence committees have shifted from conflict-resolution forums to legal battlegrounds, weakening responses to severe violence and injury cases.
• Seong Yun-suk (Research Fellow, Korea Youth Policy Institute) stated, “Minor cases should consider separating disciplinary records, and elementary-level reflection programs and relationship-recovery initiatives should be expanded.”
• Related Link.
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China Halts Sulfuric Acid Exports.

• Sulfuric acid is used across industries including copper extraction, phosphate fertilizer production, refining, and batteries. Middle Eastern sulfur accounts for one-third of global sulfur supply.
• As global sulfuric acid supplies tighten, China has cut off exports. Prices surged from 464 yuan per ton (early 2025) to 1,045 yuan (early 2026).
• U.S. trade pressure is another wildcard. Koo Yoon-cheol (Deputy Prime Minister) stated, “We will respond with full force to the U.S. Section 301 investigation.”
• A three-way squeeze: Hormuz cutting energy, China severing materials, and the U.S. applying trade pressure.
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“The Most Important Ally After the U.S.”.

• Donald Tusk (Polish Prime Minister) said this upon meeting Lee Jae-myung (President). The Polish PM’s visit to South Korea marks the first in 27 years.
• South Korea and Poland agreed to elevate their relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and strengthen defense industry cooperation.
• The two countries signed a $44.2 billion arms deal in 2022. Poland accounts for 46.2% of South Korea’s cumulative arms exports from 2020–2024.
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Please Send the Cheongung a Bit Faster.

• Demand for K-defense is surging. According to the New York Times, the Cheongung II intercepted 29 out of 30 Iranian missiles and drones in the UAE.
• Saudi Arabia has requested an accelerated delivery schedule, while the UAE has asked for additional supplies.

Bring the Ukrainian Prisoners Home.

• This is the National Human Rights Commission’s official stance. All 11 commissioners unanimously voted in favor of issuing a “statement of opinion.”
• A “statement of opinion” is a step below a “recommendation.” The Foreign Ministry lowered the intensity after conveying its view that “high-level diplomatic considerations are necessary.”
• The two North Korean soldiers held in Ukraine told Chosun Ilbo in an interview that they wished to go to South Korea.
• Kim Young-mi (independent PD), who interviewed them, said, “They said if they can’t go to South Korea, they have no choice but to die.”
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The Fix.

Carbon Reduction Debate Concludes: “Cut Faster.”.

• Results from the National Assembly’s Climate Crisis Special Committee Deliberation Panel. 78% chose “early reduction”—meaning it should start quickly, not delayed.
• 39% selected global average reduction targets, while 36% argued for even deeper cuts than the average.
• In an editorial, Kyunghyang Shinmun emphasized, “The core spirit of deliberation is for political power and society to respect citizens’ rationality. Now it’s the National Assembly and government’s turn to honor and respond to the public’s considered judgment.”
• Related Link.

Should the Non-Regular Worker Fairness Allowance Go Nationwide?

• It was a system introduced by Lee Jae-myung (President) during his tenure as Gyeonggi Province governor. Non-regular workers received 5–10% of their base pay as a fairness allowance, paid as a lump sum upon resignation.
• Gyeonggi’s fairness allowance ranges from 400,000 won for under two months to 1.54 million won for 11–12 months. This year’s budget for the allowance covers 2,303 workers at 3.1 billion won.
• Expanding it nationwide would affect 2 million public-sector non-regular workers and require over 1 trillion won in annual funding.

ICYMI.

Forced Liquidation of ‘Debt Investments’ Hits 26.2 Billion Won Daily.

• Buying stocks on margin from securities firms and repaying within two trading days is called a margin transaction. If unpaid by the third trading day, it is forcibly liquidated.
• According to the Financial Supervisory Service, losses of debt-investing traders are 2.3 times higher than those of regular investors.
• Related Link.

70% of Seoul Leases Are Now Monthly Rent.

• Statistics from January and February. It has risen rapidly from 61% in 2024 and 65% last year.
• JoongAng Ilbo’s analysis of Zigbang data shows the share of jeonse (lump-sum deposit) leases for Seoul apartments dropped from 72% in 2019 to 52% this year. Monthly rent (wolse) increased from 28% to 48%.
• Seoul apartment jeonse prices have risen for 62 consecutive weeks.
• The average monthly rent for Seoul apartments last month was 1.52 million won.
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Worth Reading.

Prison on the Sea.

• Migrant workers on fishing vessels earn 100,000 won per day. If it rains, they earn nothing. Overtime pay is nonexistent, and crew sign-in records are often omitted. Without proof of work, unpaid wages cannot be claimed.
• Won Ok-geum (Representative of the Migrant Workers’ Center) pointed out, “Under the Employment Permit System, changing workplaces is not a worker’s right but a favor from the employer.”
• A bill allowing migrant workers to change workplaces has been proposed. Won Ok-geum assessed it as “a declaration that Korean society will treat migrant workers not as ‘disposable parts to be used and discarded when needed,’ but as ‘humans with dignity.’”
• Related Link.

The Age of Hyperobjects.

• When machines bypass human judgment, the moral and political responsibility structures of war collapse. This is the reality we are witnessing in the wars in Ukraine and Iran.
• A hyperobject is a reality so spatially dispersed that no single actor can perceive or control it in its entirety.
• Hong Min (Senior Research Fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification) analyzed, “Modern security has become a ‘hyperobject’ combining nuclear multipolarization, AI autonomous weapons, supply chain geopolitics, and cyber battlefields.”
• “Post-Cold War security logic stood on the modernist conviction that identifying threats, calculating capabilities, and designing operations would achieve objectives. However, war in the hyperobject era repeatedly demonstrates that this conviction is a structure of misjudgment.”
• Related Link.

Will the Missile Button Be Pressed? Judgment and Decision-Making Now Handed to AI.

• There is something called the OODA loop, created by John Boyd (fighter pilot). It is a cyclical attack mechanism: Observe – Orient – Decide – Act.
• The first step was mechanizing ‘observation.’ Since the 1960s, reconnaissance satellites have enabled surveillance of adversaries.
• In the 1991 Gulf War, ‘action’ was mechanized. Laser-guided bombs and Tomahawk cruise missiles enabled surgical strikes. A pilot in Nevada could attack targets on the opposite side of the globe.
• The 9/11 attacks were not a failure of ‘observation’ but of ‘judgment.’
• Palantir developed technology to aggregate scattered data, create ontologies, and read patterns. The U.S. Department of Defense’s Maven Project in 2017 compressed ‘judgment’ and ‘decision-making.’
• Kang Sung-hyun (Professor at Sungkonghoe University) explained, “The moment ontology determines ‘which data to access,’ the scope of all subsequent judgments becomes defined.”
• “Every human on the battlefield is converted into an ‘object,’ every relationship is scored as ‘risk level,’ and civilians are reclassified not as protected persons but as ‘objects with low risk scores.’ This is not a problem of tools but of the framework structuring the world.”
• Related Link.

South Korea’s Responsibility.

• How long will this tightrope diplomacy continue? When the time comes to speak, we must speak. Kim Hee-won (Director of News Standards at Korea Ilbo) emphasized, “We need a sophisticated vision to survive in this era of savagery where the law of the jungle prevails,” adding, “We must deliberate deeper principles about which values to endorse and with whom to stand in solidarity.”
• “South Korea must now actively engage in the global order to protect its national interests, rather than restrain itself or evade. It must gain legitimacy and build alliances by supporting universal human values. We must recognize and meet the responsibilities the world expects of us.”
• Related Link.