Early Voting Begins Today for Two Days.

• Voting is available from 6:00 AM to 6:00 PM, and anyone with an ID can vote anywhere.
• There are seven ballot papers. Eight in areas with by-elections or re-elections.
• Jeong Chung-rae (Democratic Party Leader) appeared consecutively on Kim Eo-jun’s News Factory and Mae Bul Show, claiming, “A competent president and competent local governments must work hand in hand.”
• Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party Leader) argued, “A country where the president interferes in every breath and every cup of coffee should not exist.”

What Matters Now.

“They Could Have Raised It This Time.”.

• Bank of Korea froze the benchmark interest rate. Speculation dominates that a hike within this year is highly likely.
• Shin Hyun-song (Bank of Korea Governor) said, “Whether looking at inflation, growth rates, exchange rates, or real estate, the path is clear.” Two out of seven members argued for an increase.
• Analysts overwhelmingly conclude that such a strong message makes a July rate hike highly probable. Speculation also surfaces about multiple increases.
• Growth forecasts for this year and next were raised to 2.6% and 2.7%, respectively—up 0.6 and 0.5 percentage points.
• The Korea Daily praised in an editorial: “Shin Hyun-song, the ‘inflation fighter,’ signals appropriate policy direction.”
• Related Link.

School Trip Accidents: No Gross Negligence, No Liability.

• While the Education Ministry emphasizes “stronger protection for teachers,” the burden remains on teachers to prove no gross negligence.
• Ultimately, immunity determinations fall to investigators and judges.
• This is the third iteration of school trip safety measures. The first promised immunity if “preventive and safety measures were fulfilled,” the second if “safety obligations were met per guidelines.” The third—“no immunity unless proven grossly negligent”—has drawn criticism for narrowing the scope.
• Parents disagree. “Political Moms” called the immunity clause “a loophole to dodge responsibility for systemic reform.”

Income Gap Widens 7-Fold Post-Pandemic.

• The top 20% earn 12.37 million won monthly while the bottom 20% make 1.17 million won.
• The quintile ratio of equalized disposable income reached 6.59.
• Disposable income refers to money left after expenses. The average is 1.24 million won, but the top 20% have 9.65 million won while the bottom 20% are limited to 940,000 won.
• Related Link.

“9 Leads, 6 Toss-Ups, 1 Behind.”.

• The Democratic Party’s view of the local election landscape.
• The People Power Party? They see it as “2 leads, 7 toss-ups, 7 behind.” Both agree on at least six competitive regions.
• Both parties consider Seoul and Busan toss-ups, but differ on Daegu—whether it’s a toss-up or a lead.
• The Democratic Party leads in Daejeon, South Chungcheong, and Gangwon, but the People Power Party insists these are still contested.
• In Ulsan, the Democratic Party and Progressive Party successfully unified their candidate. Kim Sang-wook (Democratic Party candidate) was selected as the single nominee.

“An Interrogation Room?”.

• Spoken by Ha Jung-woo (Democratic Party candidate) to Han Dong-hoon (Independent candidate) at the Busan Buk-gap debate. Han Dong-hoon repeatedly pressured Ha Jung-woo: “Do you support or oppose dropping the indictment?” He also asked, “Who is South Korea’s main enemy?”
• Han Dong-hoon’s approval ratings are rising but remain within the margin of error.

Deep Dive.

Can the Semiconductor Rally Continue?

• Semiconductor sector average PER (price-to-earnings ratio) stands at 26x against 12-month expected earnings—far lower than during the dot-com bubble.
• SanDisk and Intel have surged 5x and 3x respectively this year. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix rose 5x and 10x over the past year. Can they climb higher?
• According to the Wall Street Journal, Nvidia B200 server rental fees have doubled in three months. DDR5 memory prices have also more than doubled since November last year.
• Demand remains, but investor sentiment is key. AI infrastructure transaction volumes shrank from $84.8 billion in Q4 last year to $26.9 billion in Q1 this year. The critical question is when private equity funds will pull out.
• U.S. stock markets rose across the board yesterday. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq gained 0.58%, 0.05%, and 0.91% respectively.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

“To Beijing, South Korea Is a Dagger.”.

• Xavier Brunson (USFK Commander) drew sharp rebuke from Beijing. The Chinese embassy issued an unusually stern statement: “We solemnly warn that a clear line has been crossed.”
• Brunson has repeatedly emphasized using South Korea as a tool to counterbalance China. He once described it as an “aircraft carrier floating between Japan and China.”
• Jeong Han-beom (Professor at the Korea National Defense University) analyzed, “This is an attempt to highlight the strategic importance of US forces in South Korea.”
• Kim Heung-gyu (Professor at Ajou University) noted, “South Korea is in a bind—neither confirming nor refuting Brunson’s remarks is easy” and stressed, “It’s worth noting that escalating tensions or entering a conflict phase does not align with the interests of South Korea, the US, or China.”
• “Brunson is not in a position to comment on matters that should be politically decided by the South Korea-US summit.”
• In an editorial, Kyunghyang Shinmun criticized, “Brunson’s ‘kill web’ concept has never been officially discussed” and questioned, “It’s hard to understand why he keeps making remarks that provoke China and make South Korea uncomfortable.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

KTX Passes Under Seosomun Overpass Five Minutes Before Collapse.

• 181 trains passed beneath the overpass that day.
• At 2:30 a.m., workers halted construction after confirming the girder (support beam) had sunk, but train traffic was not suspended.

Another Take.

Beyond U.S. Dependence.

• Canada has decided to adopt Sweden’s Saab GlobalEye early-warning aircraft. Boeing’s E-7 Wedgetail, a leading contender, was eliminated.
• Canada is also tightening ties with China. Prime Minister Mark Carney remarked, “Relations with Beijing have become more predictable than those with Washington.”
• France has proposed a European security framework—reducing reliance on the U.S. and strengthening independent nuclear deterrence. The UK, Germany, Poland, and others are participating.
• Norway’s declaration to join France’s nuclear umbrella marks a significant shift: If attacked, France could respond with nuclear weapons. Europe is coalescing without the U.S.
• Iceland, long under the U.S. security umbrella, is considering EU membership—a move reflecting the same trend.
• The European Commission plans to triple data-center capacity and reduce dependence on U.S. Big Tech. “This is not protectionism,” they explain, “but a strategic counterweight to safeguard Europe’s interests and values.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

National Pension Service’s Equity Share Rises from 14.9% to 20.8%.

• Concerns over a sell-off have eased, but calls for rebalancing persist.
• Lee Joon-seo (Professor at Dongguk University) argued, “Flexible adjustments are necessary, even for stock market vitality.”
• Choi Jae-won (Professor at Seoul National University) noted, “The focus should not be on maximizing short-term gains but on enhancing long-term sustainability.”

Will Debt Collection Be Licensed?

• Cracking down on predatory finance.
• The Financial Services Commission plans to revise the Loan Business Act, requiring financial institutions to hold over 50% ownership and include at least five professionals like lawyers.
• 911 companies are currently operating, but the top 30 hold 86% of all outstanding debt.

The Fix.

Seoul-Okcheon’s Last Train Departs at 4:54 PM.

• Miss the final train, and you’ll have to take the KTX to Daejeon and find alternative transportation.
• Ha Seung-woo (Director of the Ihu Research Institute), who resides in Okcheon, emphasized, “Maintaining the Mugunghwa line, which runs at 90 km/h, is crucial for securing transportation rights in areas not connected to the KTX.”
• The last bus from Okcheon County to the township stops running at 7:00 PM. Poor public transit increases car ownership, and billions of won in taxes are spent building parking lots.
• In his recent book *For the Mugunghwa*, Ha Seung-woo noted, “The hierarchy between central government, local governments, and citizens persists,” adding, “Despite over 30 years of local autonomy, internal local issues have only worsened.”

Starbucks’ Three Mistakes.

• First, they missed the chance to correct the mistake. They tried to slip away by changing “탁” to “작업 중 딱” (work in progress).
• Second, Jung Yong-sik’s (Shinsegae Chairman) message escalated the issue. Framing it as a “difference in thinking” obscured the real problem.
• Third, the prepaid refund was delayed. They cited the Fair Trade Commission’s terms as an excuse, but the clause lacks enforceability. They later relented, offering unconditional refunds—but trust was already severely damaged.
• Kim In-ah (Hanyang University Professor) emphasized, “Memory is reconstructed within present and future contexts.” She added, “How this incident is addressed and resolved will become a new battle for memory—resisting and confronting the violence of trivializing and commodifying state violence victims.”
• Related Link.

ICYMI.

80mm Promised, 5mm Delivered.

• Forecasters blamed a mobile high-pressure system for the inaccurate predictions. While 20–80mm was forecast, Seoul saw only 3mm and Daegu 8mm.
• Rising sea temperatures this year have increased forecast uncertainty.

Why K-Content is Filmed in Tokyo.

• Simple: They pay, so it’s shot. Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry guarantees up to 50% of production costs, or a maximum of 1 billion yen in cash rebates, under the J-Rock Plus program.
• Eight years ago, when Marvel’s *Black Panther* was filmed, the government offered a 25% rebate—but with annual budgets still capped at 2–4 billion won, a single blockbuster could drain the entire fund.
• Kim Kyung-eun (Deputy Head of the Content Planning Department at Chosun Ilbo) pointed out, “The government cites budget shortages as an excuse, but the real issue is distorted funding structures and bureaucratic indifference.” “Criticism persists,” she added, “that some fund managers and brokers inflate actual investments under the guise of ‘matching funds’ and pad financial documents with fictitious investments to artificially boost paper valuations.”
• Related Link.

A Hankook Ilbo Advisor Vows to Abstain.

• Lee Jun-hee (Hankook Ilbo Advisor) claimed, “This administration’s destruction of the rule of law and fairness has gone too far. This makes them subject to judgment.” Yet he does not see the People Power Party as an alternative. “Their remaining historical role is to dissolve after this election, undergo a cleansing process, and create an opportunity for a new conservative party to emerge,” he argued.
• “I’ll likely lean toward active abstention. That way, I can at least console myself that I refused to make a forced choice that would prick my conscience, regardless of the outcome.”
• Lee previously served as Hankook Ilbo’s editor-in-chief and president. While his convictions are his own, his position warrants caution—this column could easily be misread as reflecting the newspaper’s editorial stance.
• Related Link.

Worth Reading.

Two Questions Left for Trump.

• First, how much more dignity will he lose?
• Second, how many more lies will he tell to cover it up?
• Thomas Friedman (New York Times columnist) urged, “Please stop pretending you’ve achieved a perfect and excellent deal, since Iran will never surrender unconditionally anyway.”
• To make Iran abandon nuclear development, the U.S. would have to promise full sanctions relief—a move as dangerous as nuclear armament.
• Trump proposed the Abraham Accords as an exit strategy, but why would Iran suddenly sign a peace deal with Israel now? Friedman called it “absurdly naive, childish, and completely unverified.”
• Related Link.

They Should Have Asked Zelenskyy.

• Last March, when Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Ukrainian President) was publicly rebuffed and ushered out of the White House, what if Trump had asked this:
• “How has a powerless country like Ukraine managed to hold out so long?”
• Zelenskyy might have offered a clue:
• “Want to know how a $1,000 drone changed warfare?”
• If Trump had been smarter, he should have asked Pete Hegseth (Defense Minister) this:
• “What if Iran, like Ukraine, deployed a few drones to seize the Strait of Hormuz?”
• Trump didn’t ask—and Iran did exactly that.

Three Reasons Trump Is Losing.

• First, the issue of leadership. Trump has only Plan A, no Plan B. After the decapitation strike succeeded, he had no strategy other than ordering continued bombing when Iran refused to submit.
• Second, misread historical lessons. He is realizing too late that this is a war that cannot be won by bombing alone.
• Third, David French (New York Times columnist) argues that the failure of civic education is the decisive factor. The Constitution stipulates that the president must seek congressional approval to wage war. Yet no one asked whether the American people were willing to pay in blood and treasure. The analysis is that U.S. politics has grown too accustomed to bypassing institutions, thus enabling Trump’s recklessness—the real failure lies in the breakdown of constitutional order.
• It’s not just Trump’s mistake, but a failure of the constitutional system itself.
• Related Link.

Stocks at 8,000—So What?

• “Widening income inequality breeds discontent and grievance.”
• Park Byung-ryul (Economy Editor, Kyunghyang Shinmun) emphasized, “There is a golden time to correct it.”
• The argument is that “with growth rates hovering around 3%, the government should consider financial investment taxes and asset-related levies like property taxes that have been deferred.” “That is what governments exist for. If they fail this role, even if stocks hit 10,000, people will say it’s nothing special.”
• In an editorial, The Hankyoreh stressed, “A government that promises ‘growth for all’ must prioritize reducing polarization as its top policy agenda.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Five Key Watchpoints.

• First, the conservative infighting in Busan Buk-gap. It appears to be a Han Dong-hoon-Park Min-sik contest, but it’s actually Han Dong-hoon-Jang Dong-hyeok. If Han Dong-hoon (Independent candidate) takes the Democratic Party seat, Jang Dong-hyeok cannot survive.
• Second, Jeollabuk-do seems like a Kim Kwan-young-Lee Won-taek race, but it’s Kim Kwan-young-Jeong Cheong-rae. If Kim Kwan-young (Independent candidate), who was cut off, returns alive, Jeong Cheong-rae (Democratic Party leader) will struggle to avoid blame.
• Third, Pyeongtaek B is problematic whether won or lost. Park Sung-min (CEO of Political Consulting Min) analyzed, “If Cho Kuk (Cho Kuk Reform Party candidate) wins, the Democratic Party will clearly suffer, but if Kim Yong-nam (Democratic Party candidate) wins, the progressive alliance could collapse.” Yu Si-min (writer) supported Cho Kuk, saying, “Cho Kuk was originally from the Democratic Party but is now fighting against them. Kim Yong-nam came from the other party.”
• Fourth, Kim Bu-gyeom (Daegu mayoral candidate) was hit by friendly fire. Public opinion turned against him after the special prosecution for fabricated indictments, and he’s fighting an uphill battle. The Democratic Party could win all three in Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam. The People Power Party can claim they didn’t lose if they win only Busan.
• Fifth, for the Democratic Party, winning everywhere but losing Seoul would be embarrassing. Jeong Won-o (Democratic Party candidate) must retain all Lee Jae-myung’s presidential votes and attract some Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jun-seok voters to win. Polls show Jeong ahead, but Oh Se-hoon shouldn’t be underestimated.
• Related Link.

Who Will Dominate AI? Not the U.S. or China.

• “Who will be its ultimate master remains an open question (It goes by the name of AI and its future master has yet to be determined.).” Financial Times analysis.
• The U.S. twin deficits each stand at 6% of GDP. America’s public debt is projected to rise from 101% of GDP this year to 120% by 2036. Costs from the U.S.-Iran war alone approach $30 billion. The 30-year Treasury yield hovers near 2.7%—a vote of no confidence in America’s future.
• Xi Jinping’s (President of the People’s Republic of China) warning to Trump about the “Thucydides Trap” revealed ambitions to rival the U.S., but uncertainties abound. A new hegemon might emerge, analysts suggest.
• Related Link.