“The War Is Almost Over.”.

• “Very Complete.”
• International oil prices plummeted from $119 to $85 per barrel on a single remark by Donald Trump (U.S. President).
• The G7 countries’ announcement that they were “ready to release emergency oil reserves” also had a significant effect.
• U.S. stock markets rebounded too. The S&P 500 index, which had fallen by 1.5% at one point, closed up 0.8%.
• As the U.S. situation keeps changing, newspapers often become obsolete by the next day. This morning’s front pages were filled with cries of Black Monday, yet today’s market sentiment could be different.
• [ADDITIONAL] Trump changed his tone after the stock market closed. At a gathering of Republican lawmakers, he said, “We have won, but it is not enough,” adding, “We go forward more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory that will end this long-running danger once and for all.”
• When asked by reporters if this would end this week, he simply replied, “No, very soon.”
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Gasoline Hits 1,900 Won per Liter.

• There were forecasts of a fourth oil shock.
• Kim Jeong-gwan (Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy) convened a crisis meeting with heads of the four major refiners and the Korea Petroleum Association.
• The Fair Trade Commission began on-site investigations. It takes 2–3 weeks for international oil prices to reflect in domestic prices. The government believes refiners raised prices prematurely.

First-Ever Oil Price Cap.

• Introducing a maximum price system. An emergency measure never activated since oil price liberalization in 1997.
• The government will set prices, with violations punishable by up to two years in prison or a fine of up to 20 million won.
• Shin Hyun-don (Inha University professor) pointed out, “South Korea spends over 200 trillion won annually on energy and mineral imports but barely invests in resource development,” adding, “Japan secures over 40% of its oil and gas through domestic technology and capital.”
• Private reserves stand at 73 million barrels, set to deplete in two months.
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“A Small Price for Global Safety”?

• Donald Trump (U.S. President) said this.
• Goldman Sachs warned, “Oil prices could rise to $147 if supply remains constrained for an extended period.”
• The Strait of Hormuz is effectively blockaded. Oil production could drop by 9 million barrels per day—about 10% of global demand.
• While concerns persist about global stagflation, oil dependency has diminished compared to the past.
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Will Kharg Be Attacked?

• Kharg Island is home to Iran’s largest oil export terminal. It spans 25 km²—one-third the size of Ulleungdo. 90% of Iran’s crude exports pass through this terminal.
• Though a critical facility, it has not yet been attacked. But crossing this final redline remains possible. If the U.S. or Israel strikes Kharg, Iran would gain justification to target other Gulf states’ oil infrastructure.
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What Matters Now.

Rollercoaster Stock Market.

• Crash followed by surge, then crash again. It plummeted 18.4% on the 3rd and 4th, soared 9.6% on the 5th, and fell 6.0% yesterday.
• Since breaking 5,000 on the KOSPI, individual investors have net-purchased 23.4 trillion won. Foreigners have sold off 33.5 trillion won. Margin trading balances of individual investors have reached 33.7 trillion won. If retail sentiment collapses, it could trigger panic selling. If prices drop today, ‘debt-fueled investments’ may face forced liquidations, flooding the market with sell-offs.
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Exchange Rate Hits 1,495.5 Won.

• Highest level in 17 years. Tops since the 2009 global financial crisis.
• Could surpass 1,500 won today.
• Won has plummeted nearly 4% since the outbreak of war.

Iran’s Next Leader: Mojtaba Khamenei.

• Positioning Ayatollah Khamenei’s son signals a resolve to fight the U.S. to the death. Some analysts suggest the regime is invoking martyrdom narratives to consolidate power.
• The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared, “We pledge our loyalty.”
• Trump’s Venezuela model is dead in the water.

Firing with Lives on the Line.

• Iran’s missile launch sites are hidden underground. Pressing the launch button takes 15–20 seconds before firing—making the moment of button-pressing a target for airstrikes.
• The U.S. still estimates Iran has around 100–200 operational missile launchers.

Netanyahu and Trump’s Growing Frustration.

• Israel attacked Iran’s oil storage facilities. According to Axios, Trump was deeply surprised and sent a strong protest message to Israel.
• Israel insists the Iranian regime must be completely dismantled, but Trump still refuses to abandon the Venezuela model.
• The BBC analyzed, “Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Prime Minister) would actually welcome chaos and crisis in Iran, but Trump has much to lose.”

Deep Dive.

Long Overdue Opposition to “Yoon’s Return.”.

• Yoon Suk-yeol’s return was never likely, yet he was used to seize party power. Only after reaching the point where “we cannot run the election like this” emerged did Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party Leader) reverse course.
• Yesterday, People Power Party lawmakers issued a resolution. It explicitly opposed “any demands for Yoon Suk-yeol’s political return” and declared, “We will advance toward the future with the people, as if we were reborn.”
• Speculation grows that Oh Se-hoon (Seoul Mayor) will register as a candidate.
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U.S. Investment Bill Passes Committee, Stripping Corporate Funding Clause.

• It’s 200 billion + 1.5 trillion (shipbuilding) dollars.
• A Korea-U.S. Strategic Investment Corporation with 2 trillion won in capital will be established. The government is the 100% shareholder.
• Prior reporting to the National Assembly is required before any investment.
• Park Soo-young (People Power Party lawmaker) said, “Concerns that we would twist corporate arms to secure funds were so high that we removed the corporate funding clause.”

A Goal Scored by Foul Play, Cancellation Is Only Fair.

• The Democratic Party is pushing to dismiss charges in Lee Jae-myung’s (President) Daejang-dong case and others. A ruling party official met by Chosun Ilbo stated, “Our position is that the prosecution was clearly fabricated.”
• “A goal scored by foul play must be canceled,” said Jung Chung-rae (Democratic Party Leader). “Charges brought by foul play must be dismissed,” he added, “and we will push for a state investigation followed immediately by a special prosecutor.”
• Sung Han-yong (Senior Reporter, Hankyoreh) pointed out, “There are two issues.”
• First, it’s questionable whether dismissing charges is appropriate when the trial is already suspended due to the defendant being a sitting president.
• Second, it could politically backfire. When the Democratic Party pushed for a presidential trial suspension law last November, the Blue House had already intervened to mediate. The stance remains that legislation isn’t necessary for a trial already halted.
• JoongAng Ilbo criticized, “Democratic Party hardliners are crossing the line.” A senior government official met by JoongAng Ilbo remarked, “Figures like Kim Yong-min (Democratic Party lawmaker), who effectively want to abolish the prosecution system, are undermining the investigative framework.”
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“Reform Is Like Surgery.”.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) has again taken charge of traffic control. His emphasis that “we must not burn down the thatched cottage to kill the bedbugs” was directed at the direction of judicial reform. He stressed, “To solve problems, we must accurately identify the causes and clearly distinguish the good from the bad.”
• He noted, “They say reform is harder than revolution. Even if it’s tedious and complex, we cannot stage a revolution.”
• There are three major points of disagreement between the president and the Democratic Party’s hardliners.
• Lee Jae-myung’s first position is that supplementary investigations by the prosecution service are necessary. Second, he sees no issue with referring to the head of the prosecution service as the prosecutor general. Third, the government’s plan is to establish a system of local-high-level-national prosecution offices, but the Democratic Party hardliners want to eliminate the high-level tier.

Fair Trade Commission to Raise Collusion Fines 20-Fold.

• Fines will rise from 0.5% of relevant sales to 10%.
• For extremely serious violations, the rate will increase to 18%. Reductions will be cut from 30% to 10%, and repeat offenders will face penalties up to 100% higher.
• Kim Keun-sung (Fair Trade Commission Hearing Manager) stated, “We will ensure that lawbreaking does not become a corporate ‘strategy.’”
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Another Take.

AI Revolution, Youth Jobs Vanishing First.

• Hiring is shrinking before layoffs. Kim Hyun-chul (Yonsei University Medical School Professor) analyzed it as “seniority-biased technological change.”
• What should we prepare? Kim proposed four points.
• First, analyze the labor market. Track and observe employment changes based on AI exposure.
• Second, do not neglect the youth. Tax incentives could be given to companies that maintain new hiring or expand internships.
• Third, distribution matters. AI adoption increases productivity by 1.4% but reduces employment by 0.7%. Corporate taxes could be raised and a digital tax introduced.
• Fourth, the crisis is already here. Fiscal scenarios must be prepared and readiness ensured.

The Fix.

Yellow Envelope Law in Effect Today.

• Subcontract workers can now demand negotiations with primary contractors. Damages from strike lawsuits will also decrease. Legitimate union activities under the Labor Union Act will not incur liability for compensation.
• Kim Deok-ho (Sungkyunkwan University Professor) noted, “Key issues such as employer status determination, separation of bargaining units, and scope of disputes all remain open to interpretation, so conflicts and disputes will likely follow in the early stages.”
• Kim Young-hoon (Minister of Labor) emphasized, “Rather than overestimating potential conflicts that have not yet occurred, it is important to resolve issues through labor-management dialogue and consultation.”

Conditions for Successful Metropolitan Integration.

• Following Gwangju-Jeonnam, discussions are underway for Daejeon-Chungnam, Daegu-Gyeongbuk, and Busan-Gyeongnam. Ji Joo-hyung (Professor, Kyungnam University) warns, “There is a risk of undermining democratic self-governance and the principle of subsidiarity.” The “regional competition-fueling framework” is also problematic.
• Ji Joo-hyung emphasized three conditions.
• First, active state intervention is necessary. Suppress capital region-centric developmentalism, restructure the hierarchy between central and local governments, and relocate the presidential office to Sejong City.
• Second, integration must lead to regional economic and social cohesion. Integration of labor and consumer markets, along with transportation networks and infrastructure expansion, is essential.
• Third, autonomy must be strengthened at the grassroots level.
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Removing Utility Poles Brought Black-Crowned Cranes.

• In 1996, there were only 79. The number grew to 339 in 2007, 1,432 in 2015, and 8,606 last year.
• Globally, there are about 10,000, and most spend winter in Suncheon, South Korea.
• Since 2008, Suncheon City has promoted itself as an “ecological capital” and worked to build an eco-friendly city. It removed 282 utility poles and designated 62 hectares as a black-crowned crane agricultural zone. Farmers left rice grains as winter feed for migratory birds after harvest.
• Annual visitors to Suncheon Bay have increased to 4 million.
• Hwang Seon-mi (Suncheon Bay Conservation Team Leader) assessed, “The Suncheon Bay miracle, which began with small human concessions, is advancing as an ecosystem restoration model that truly aids wild self-reliance.”
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ICYMI.

NATO Arms Imports Surge 143%, South Korea Second in Exports.

• The United States accounts for 58%, South Korea 9%, and Israel 8%.
• In global market share, the United States leads at 42%, followed by France (19%) and Russia (7%), with South Korea at 3% in ninth place.

Lee Sedol’s 10-Minute Surrender.

• To mark the 10th anniversary of the AlphaGo match, he played against an AI again on the same site.
• Lee Sedol (9-dan professional Go player) created a Go application using AI startup Enhance’s AI OS and played against it in an event. The app took about 20 minutes to develop.
• The result? A crushing defeat.
• Lee Sedol assessed, “It’s at a level surpassing AlphaGo.” This is the era of vibe coding—programming without coding, through speech.
• “If AI can teach Go, the barrier to entry for the game will drop significantly,” he said.
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Worth Reading.

The Pottery Shop Rule.

• Colin Powell (former U.S. Secretary of State) once said: If you break the pottery, you must pay for it. George W. Bush (former U.S. President), who plunged into the Iraq War, ended up bearing an enormous burden through Iraq’s reconstruction.
• The same applies to Trump. Whether continuing the war or fleeing, there is no happy ending anywhere. Lee Dae-geun (Professor, Woosuk University) pointed out, “This war should never have started.”
• “The world is now being sucked into the deep darkness of violence and destruction by those who use war not as a last resort but as a first resort. This is the true nature of the ‘imminent threat.’ The urgent task is not removing Khamenei but ousting Trump, not replacing the Iranian regime but replacing the U.S. regime.”
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Who Decides War?

• No evidence has emerged to support Trump’s claim of an “imminent threat.”
• The American public also opposes the war. In a CNN poll, 59% opposed it; in PBS and NPR polls, 56% did.
• The dominant view is that this war was a crisis-management gamble by Trump from the start. Seo Bok-kyung (Director, The Possible Research Institute) pointed out, “The paradox is that the leader began the war gamble because he lacked public support, and continues it for the same reason.”
• Congress failed to stop it. A resolution to halt the war was defeated 47-53 in the Senate. Seo analyzed, “The only remaining method is worsening public opinion, louder and stronger citizen opposition.”
• South Korea must also draw lessons. When elected leaders betray the public will, are there means to control them? Though Yoon Suk-yeol was ousted, many gaps remain.
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F8 Emerges as Pro-Myung Regime Revival Looms.

• Baek Seong-gyu (political editor, Chosun Ilbo) analyzes: If the Democratic Party wins big in local elections, the pro-Myung faction will seize hegemony.
• Lee Jae-myung cannot ignore the post-retirement phase. To revive a pro-Myung regime, he must block lame-duck politics and maintain control over state affairs. Though the term still has over four years, the People Power Party’s weakness allows for long-term projections.
• Lee Jae-myung could wield absolute power until the 2028 general election—a level of authority no post-democratization government has held. Kim Eo-jun (CEO, Ddanzi Ilbo)’s diminished influence also makes sense in this context.
• The next power F8 includes: Jeong Cheong-rae (Democratic Party leader) vs. Kim Min-seok (Prime Minister) rivalry, with Song Young-gil (former Democratic Party leader), Woo Won-shik (National Assembly Speaker), Kang Hoon-sik (Chief of Staff to the President), Park Chan-dae (former Democratic Party floor leader), Jeong Won-o (Seongdong District Mayor), and Cho Kuk (leader, Cho Kuk Innovation Party). A ruling party insider met by Baek Seong-gyu assessed, “The plan is to avoid designating a number-two figure until the term’s end and instead fuel loyalty competition.”
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We’d Also Like to See “Lee Jae-myung Won’t Do It.”.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) is undeniably skilled. He’s had good luck, but his drive and organizational management are strong.
• Lee Young-tae (Korea Ilbo columnist) noted, “Yet there’s still a precariousness, as if the glass is only half-full—because we only see ‘I will do it,’ but rarely ‘I won’t do it.’”
• From Lee Young-tae’s perspective, Lee Jae-myung needs to clearly declare just two things he won’t do.
• First, he must stop favor-driven, backroom appointments. Already, lawyers from Daejang-dong have taken positions everywhere. The ‘local aunt’ controversy remains submerged.
• Second, he must cut ties with self-inflicted legal risks. He cannot ignore or tolerate the prosecution dismissal lobbying group. While wrongful indictments may feel unjust, “If the president can do what citizens cannot, it’s a clear privatization of power.”
• The advice is that declaring ‘I won’t do it’ could fill the rest of the glass. Of course, it won’t be easy.
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