Declaring Self-Victory and Exiting?

• “Iran’s new president just requested a ceasefire with the U.S.,” claimed Donald Trump (U.S. President). It’s unclear who this “new president” refers to. Iran has denied “ever requesting a ceasefire.”
• Masoud Pezeshkian (Iranian President) stated, “Iran harbors no hostility toward the U.S., Europe, or neighboring countries.” Speculation arises that negotiations might be nearing a resolution.
• There’s a possibility of ending the war independently of the Strait of Hormuz. “We have nothing to do with that matter,” while adding, “If France or other countries want oil or gas, they can go directly—we can defend ourselves.”
• With gasoline prices exceeding $4 per gallon, the situation has become increasingly unsustainable. Trump’s approval rating dropped to 33% in an MIT poll.
• A declaration of war’s end could occur during the press conference. Washington time: 9 PM on the 9th; Seoul time: 10 AM today.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

KOSPI Surges 9.4%.

• Recovered to 5,478.7.
• The won-dollar exchange rate, which had spiked to 1,530 won, fell to 1,501 won.
• Korean government bonds saw significant inflows after being included in the World Government Bond Index (WGBI).
• The WGBI consists of bonds from 26 countries, with U.S. bonds at 40.4%, and Chinese and Japanese bonds at 10.7% and 8.5%, respectively. Newly added South Korea accounts for 1.9%.
• Yesterday, U.S. stock markets rose: the S&P 500 gained 0.72%, the Dow 0.48%, and the Nasdaq 1.16%.

War Ends, but Energy Crisis Persists Until Year-End.

• Qatar’s LNG complex is projected to take up to five years for full recovery.
• Energy facilities in Saudi Arabia and the UAE (United Arab Emirates) sustained significant damage. Some forecasts suggest oil prices will struggle to return to pre-war levels for the foreseeable future.

What Matters Now.

No Extensions for Multi-Home Loans in the Capital Region.

• 17,000 households, 4.1 trillion won in volume. This year’s maturing amount is 12,000 households, 2.7 trillion won.
• Lee Won-bok (Financial Services Commission Chairman) stated, “To escape the stigma of a nation-destroying real estate republic, a bold separation of the real estate market and finance is essential.”
• Observers suggest gap-investing multi-homeowners will struggle to hold on. Ham Young-jin (Head of Woori Bank’s Real Estate Research Lab) forecasted, “Highly leveraged investors with weak cash reserves and multi-homeowners in non-core areas will face significant selling pressure.”

Kim Kwan-young’s Cash Envelope Scandal.

• Kim Kwan-young (Governor of North Jeolla Province) was confirmed to have provided money to Democratic Party youth committee members. The party immediately convened a Supreme Council meeting and decided to expel him.
• The released footage is CCTV from a restaurant in November last year. Kim explained, “I paid for a substitute driver.” Amounts ranged from 20,000 won to 100,000 won, totaling over 680,000 won.
• Ahn Ho-young (Democratic Party lawmaker) and Lee Won-taek (Democratic Party lawmaker) are likely to face off in the North Jeolla governor’s race. Both are classified as pro-Myung and pro-Cheong factions, respectively, leading to speculation of a Myung-Cheong rivalry.
• Related Link.

People Power Party’s Nomination Process Unravels.

• Kim Young-hwan (Chungcheongbuk-do Governor), who was cut off, filed a provisional disposition request that was accepted, causing the schedule to unravel.
• The court questioned the additional nomination process, so the likelihood of Kim receiving renomination is low. Kim stated, “I’m also considering running as an independent.”
• Only Yoon Gap-geun (lawyer, former Yoon Suk-yeol’s legal counsel) remains as a candidate.
• Joo Ho-young (People Power Party), who was cut off in Daegu, also filed a provisional disposition request.

No Purchase Limits on Trash Bags.

• Kim Sung-hwan (Minister of Climate and Energy Environment) appeared on Kim Eo-jun’s News Factory and said, “I think we should consider per-person sales limits, like with masks.”
• Lee Jae-myung (President) disagrees. “If City A runs short, they can borrow from City B,” he said.
• Ultimately, no purchase limits will be imposed. The government expects supply instability to ease once Russian naphtha arrives.

March Exports Reach $86.1 Billion.

• Trade surplus was $25.7 billion. Both figures are record highs, thanks to a 151% surge in semiconductor exports.
• The shadow of war looms. Energy imports fell 7%. Exports to the Middle East, including automobiles and petrochemicals, dropped significantly.

Deep Dive.

A Nationwide Farmland Audit: Who’s Nervous?

• 1949’s land reform law was the last time this happened. Under President Lee Jae-myung’s directive, the government formed a task force and began on-site inspections. Phase one allocated 58.8 billion won.
• South Korea’s total farmland spans 1.95 million hectares.
• Last year’s transaction prices ranged from 607,000 won in Gyeonggi to 82,000 won in Jeollanam-do. Yoon Won-seop (Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs policy director) stated, “Speculation is a significant factor,” adding, “This audit demonstrates the government’s resolve to eradicate land speculation.”
• The Kyunghyang Shinmun editorial emphasized, “Farmland policy must be a long-term legacy.”

“America Has Decided Not to Help You Either.”.

• Trump said, “I’m strongly considering withdrawing from NATO.” He is currently venting frustration over allies withdrawing from the U.S.-Iran war.
• Italy refused a U.S. request to use its Sicily air force base.
• Poland rejected a request for Patriot missile support.
• France did not permit overflight of its airspace for weapons transports.

Another Take.

English Kindergartens: No More Than 3 Hours of English Instruction.

• There are 814 early childhood English academies nationwide, with average monthly costs reaching 1.55 million won.
• The government has restricted rote instruction to under three hours and banned it entirely for children under two.
• A Ministry of Education official stated, “The significance lies in the state setting a minimum standard, as cognitive instruction exceeding three hours is deemed inappropriate for child development.”
• The Korean Teachers and Education Workers Union criticized, “Regulations tend to drive activities underground the stricter they become,” adding, “Without curbing fundamental demand, enforcement-focused policies alone cannot prevent the expansion of high-cost private tutoring or irregular shadow education markets.”

People Power Party’s Top Pledge: Half-Price Jeonse in the Capital Region.

• Song Eun-seok (People Power Party floor leader) claimed, “The real estate issue won’t be resolved by suppressing demand.”
• It’s the same old refrain about increasing supply, but no concrete action plan exists. The proposal is to provide long-term jeonse at 50% of market rates.

Political Efficacy: Conservatives Feel Less Empowered.

• “If the ruling power changes, my life could change” received 57% agreement from progressives, but only 42% from conservatives. This implies that neither side has strong motivation to vote in this year’s local elections.
• Jeong Han-ul (Korean People’s Research Institute director) pointed out, “If the People Power Party wants to shift the election landscape, they must find ways to reignite positive expectations and participation motivation among conservatives who have grown disillusioned and withdrawn, rather than repeating reflexive anti-incumbent rhetoric.”
• Related Link.

Public Sector Vehicles Under Odd-Even Rule.

• Starting August 8th. Public parking lots will also switch to a five-day rotation system—29,269 lots, 1.05 million spaces.
• LNG dependency must be reduced. Nuclear power utilization will rise from 70% to 80%, and the 80% cap on coal power generation will be lifted.

The Fix.

If Not Yoon Deok-won, Who Is an Artist?

• Controversy erupted over the rejection of Yoon Deok-won (singer, vocalist of indie band Broccoli You Also)’s application for artist activity certification.
• To qualify for government artist support, applicants must prove a certain level of career achievement—such as number of performances or exhibition history—and income. The approval rate is realistically below 50%.
• Lee Myung-hee (Khan columnist) remarked, “A developed nation should not let artists abandon their dreams due to livelihood struggles.”
• Related Link.

Basic Income Given, Neighbors Moved In.

• Rural basic income pilot projects are underway. Recipients receive regional gift certificates worth 150,000 won monthly.
• The population of 10 pilot regions increased by 12,440 people in four months—43% migrated from the capital region and nearby metropolitan areas, while 38% came from depopulating regions.
• Okcheon County in North Chungcheong saw a population increase of 1,974, with 134 from Yeongdong and 33 from Boeun.
• The Dong-A Ilbo editorial criticized, “Expanding the project without controlling the ‘straw effect’ will render it meaningless.”
• The rural basic income budget consists of 40% national and 60% local funding. Concerns arise that essential service budgets may shrink due to cash-based support prioritization.
• Related Link.

ICYMI.

Yoon Suk-yeol Couple’s Deposited Funds: 1.3 Billion KRW.

• Yoon Suk-yeol received 1.23299 billion KRW, while Kim Keon-hee received 93.05 million KRW. The amounts correspond to 27,410 and 4,554 individual deposits, respectively.
• The legal limit for holding deposited funds is 4 million KRW; excess amounts can be transferred to personal accounts.
• Park Eun-jung (lawmaker, People’s Revolutionary Party) criticized, “This is the appearance of Yoon Suk-yeol, the ringleader of sedition, legally soliciting donations.”

Worth Reading.

Why the ‘Yeon-P’ Trend Is Taking Over.

• According to the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs, 79% of young adults aged 19–24 and 58% of those aged 25–29 are not dating.
• A new term, “Galentine’s Day” (girl + Valentine’s Day), has emerged for when female friends gather to celebrate Valentine’s Day together.
• The flood of eight romance variety shows in four months is not unrelated to this generational sentiment.
• Yang Sung-hee (JoongAng Ilbo columnist) analyzed, “Unlike romance dramas where actors play fictional characters, these unscripted ‘real-life dating stories’ are vividly entertaining and more prone to over-immersion.”
• “In the non-dating era, ‘yeon-p’ sells the illusion of romance as a proxy dating experience. The more fantastical romances overflow in ‘yeon-p,’ the less room there is for ordinary, even humble, real-life relationships. It’s the paradox of the ‘yeon-p’ golden age.”
• Related Link.

A Three-Tiered Energy Security Strategy.

• Proposed by Kwon Hyo-jae (CEO of COR Energy Insight).
• First, a clear signal is needed in the short term. In crisis situations, consumption should be reduced, but essential industries can be subsidized.
• Second, fossil fuels will remain necessary for the time being, but we must not cling to outdated methods. State-owned enterprises should participate in fossil fuel procurement, and expanding storage infrastructure could position Korea as a Northeast Asian energy hub.
• Third, electrification of all sectors must be pursued long-term. The key is to create a system where diverse power sources and energy storage compete to achieve lower costs and higher efficiency.
• Kwon Hyo-jae emphasized, “Short-term measures should focus on reduction and protection, mid-term on procurement and reserves, and long-term on electrification and technological innovation—all unified under a consistent strategy.”
• Related Link.

Is a ‘Waste Bag’ Without Naphtha Possible?

• Mixing polyethylene makes them stretch better and tear less. Is polyethylene indispensable? South Korea has technology to make them from 100% recycled materials, but prioritizing local suppliers has hindered adoption.
• Heo Jeong-won (JoongAng Ilbo reporter) pointed out, “It’s ironic that after years of chanting ‘a post-plastic society,’ we ended up with a waste bag crisis.”
• A company official Heo interviewed said, “A local government we supplied to demanded, ‘Since our local companies can’t use 100% recycled materials, mix in polyethylene,’ or asked, ‘Why buy bags from other regions?’—cutting off the deal.”
• The crisis could have been prevented. It’s not too late to act.
• Related Link.

Feedback.

Teen Suicide Attempts Surge Sevenfold.

• Clarifying an inaccuracy from Monday’s Slowletter:
• Suicides among teens have risen significantly, but suicide attempts have surged even more. The sevenfold increase refers to attempts, not suicides. From 2.0 per 100,000 in 2014, attempts jumped to 12.8 per 100,000 in 2023. Suicides rose from 4.5 to 7.9 per 100,000.
• In 2023, 6,378 teens attempted suicide and 370 died by suicide. Since 2017, female teen suicides have sharply increased.
• Related Link.