“All Measures on the Table, Including Emergency Mediation.”.

• Kim Min-seok (Prime Minister) has stepped in.
• Samsung Electronics’ union has set D-Day for the 21st. Today (18th) could be the final negotiation.
• Earlier, Lee Jae-yong (Samsung Electronics Chairman) said, “I’ll take the brunt of the storm” while urging, “Let’s do our best.”
• The union has tentatively accepted a second post-strike mediation—today is the day.
• The National Labor Commission chairperson will attend.
• Related Link.

Emergency Mediation Invoked Four Times.

• 1. The 1969 Korea Shipbuilding Corporation strike saw invocation after 78 days of walkout—resolved by autonomous labor-management agreement.
• 2. The 1993 Hyundai Motor strike saw invocation after 34 days of walkout, also settled by labor-management agreement.
• 3. The 2005 Asiana Airlines and Korean Air strikes ended after 25 and 3 days of walkout respectively, mediated by the National Labor Relations Commission.
• 4. When emergency mediation is invoked, strikes pause for 30 days; if no agreement is reached, the parties must accept the commission’s binding arbitration.

What Matters Now.

Emergency Mediation: Can It Happen or Not?

• Khan and The Hankyoreh argue it cannot.
• Khan’s editorial pointed out, “Restricting the right to strike on the grounds of economic damage is inherently contradictory.” Strikes are inherently a means of pressure through economic harm.
• The Hankyoreh’s editorial noted, “Since it could infringe on the constitutional right to collective action, it must be approached with utmost caution.”
• Other newspapers are pressuring the union.
• The JoongAng Ilbo’s editorial argued, “Emergency mediation is also an unavoidable choice.”
• Chosun Ilbo’s editorial stated, “Demanding hundreds of millions of won per person is hard to interpret as a reasonable claim for labor rights.”
• Donga Ilbo’s editorial warned, “The AI semiconductor boom is an absolute opportunity for the Korean economy to recover its fundamental competitiveness. We cannot let this chance slip away with a self-inflicted own goal of a strike.”
• Kukmin Ilbo’s editorial remarked, “It pours cold water on the Korean economy,” adding, “We must heed analyses that this would open a ‘door of opportunity’ for Chinese semiconductor firms.”
• Related Link.
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46th Anniversary of the May 18th Democratic Uprising.

• Proposal to include the spirit of 5·18 in the constitutional preamble never even reached a vote.
• This year’s commemoration marks the opening of the Jeonnam Provincial Government Building, now fully restored to its original form.
• Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party Leader) was once chased away after visiting the May 18th National Cemetery last year. He will attend today’s ceremony.

Will Trump Abandon Taiwan?

• Xi Jinping (Chinese President) requested Donald Trump (U.S. President) to stop selling weapons to Taiwan.
• Trump told reporters, “It’s a very good bargaining chip for us,” adding, “We might sell, or we might not.”
• This is not just about selling or not selling weapons. It implies the U.S. could withdraw if China attacks Taiwan—shaking a 44-year-old promise.
• Axios analyzed, “This has unsettled not only Taiwan but also South Korea and Japan.”
• Trump said, “China is a very powerful country, and Taiwan is a very small island. We don’t want war. If the status quo is maintained, I think China will accept it. I don’t want someone there saying, ‘The U.S. supports us, so let’s become independent.’ Having someone there who wants independence and attempting it is a dangerous thing.”
• This goes beyond opposing Taiwan’s independence—it suggests Taiwan could be handed over to China. He also said, “I’d love it if all the semiconductor companies in Taiwan came to the U.S.”
• The Dong-A Ilbo’s editorial assessed, “Even promises made with allies take a backseat to U.S. interests in power-brokered deals—a facet of the ‘Trump risk.’”
• The Hankyoreh analyzed, “Previously, the fear was getting dragged into a Taiwan conflict. Now, the terror has shifted: we too could be abandoned like Taiwan.”
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Only One Seoul Mayor Debate.

• It will be held just 7 hours before early voting begins—at 11 PM on the 28th.
• Gyeonggi Province will also hold one debate at 11 PM on the 27th and call it done.
• The People Power Party criticized, “Democratic Party candidates have started ‘bedroom soccer.’”
• “Talk of an ‘upset theater goal’ is an admission they know they’re losing.”
• Related Link.

Is a Unified Candidate Between Han Dong-hoon and Park Min-sik Possible?

• Observers overwhelmingly say it’s highly unlikely.
• With Han Dong-hoon (Independent Candidate) and Park Min-sik (People Power Party Candidate) polling similarly in the Busan Buk-gap by-election, neither has reason to concede.
• Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party Leader) also opposes it. On Facebook, he wrote, “Victory cannot be the sole objective,” adding, “A unification based merely on vote-counting doesn’t align with conservative values.”
• Related Link.

Three Scenarios for Busan Buk-gap.

• Combined support rates for Han Dong-hoon and Park Min-sik exceed Ha Jeong-woo (Democratic Party Candidate), but in hypothetical matchups—Ha Jeong-woo vs. Han Dong-hoon or Ha Jeong-woo vs. Park Min-sik—Ha Jeong-woo wins.
• Seong Han-yong (Senior Reporter, Hankyoreh) analyzed, “People Power Party supporters may actually switch choices after unification.”
• First, if the vote share is Ha Jeong-woo-Han Dong-hoon-Park Min-sik, Jang Dong-hyeok’s leadership could wobble.
• Second, if it’s Ha Jeong-woo-Park Min-sik-Han Dong-hoon, Jang Dong-hyeok might hold on.
• Third, if Han Dong-hoon wins? Jang Dong-hyeok’s system could collapse, and the party might split.
• Related Link.

Deep Dive.

504 Uncontested Wins.

• Hankook Ilbo assessed, “The two major parties’ politics have produced subpar candidates,” adding, “The urgent task is to resolve the major parties’ regionalist power-sharing.”
• In the capital region’s two-seat constituencies, it was common for the Democratic Party and People Power Party to each field one candidate and secure victory. Campaigning halts once an uncontested win is confirmed. Calls to introduce at least a yes/no vote have emerged.
• A total of 7,782 candidates registered, with an average competition ratio of 1.8:1—the lowest in history.
• Related Link.

Ulsan, Seongnam, Gunwi, and Uiseong.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) recently visited these places. The People Power Party protested, calling it “blatant electioneering.”
• Ulsan was to encourage the shipbuilding industry, and Seongnam hosted a New Community Movement Association meeting. Gunwi and Uiseong were to inspect the Daegu-Gyeongbuk airport project.
• In Gunwi, he personally drove a tractor, ate a midday meal with residents, and toasted with makgeolli.
• Lee Kyu-yeon (Chief of Presidential Press) stated, “The president is doing his job and visiting necessary places,” adding, “It has nothing to do with the local elections.”
• Related Link.

Oh Se-hoon + Lee Joon-seok.

• Oh Se-hoon (People Power Party Seoul mayoral candidate) is in a situation where every 1% counts. The possibility of a last-minute unification between Oh Se-hoon and Kim Jung-chul (Reform Party Seoul mayoral candidate) is being discussed.
• Yesterday’s joint site visit by Oh Se-hoon and Lee Joon-seok (Reform Party Leader) was clearly a staged production.
• Depending on the poll, Jeong Won-o (Democratic Party Seoul mayoral candidate) is either leading beyond the margin of error or within it.
• Related Link.

The Tides Are Shifting.

• Hankyoreh analyzed that gaps are narrowing in Seoul, Daejeon, and Busan.
• In a Gallup Korea poll, the Democratic Party and People Power Party’s party support rates are 45% and 23%. Though the gap remains nearly double, it has slightly narrowed. Presidential approval stands at 61%.
• Related Link.

Another Take.

Good News Is No News.

• Wall Street Journal assessed, “No major achievements, but no notable concessions either.”
• The title “The Good-News-Is-No-News” inverts the proverb “No news is good news.” It implies relief that there was no bad news.
• Trump claimed, “China agreed to buy massive amounts of planes and soybeans,” but Beijing made no specific mention.
• They “agreed on the Strait of Hormuz issue,” but China drew a line, stating, “No explicit agreement was reached.”
• China requested the sale of Nvidia chips, but this collapsed. This is the part the Wall Street Journal deemed a relative relief.
• Related Link.

Korean Retail Investors’ U.S. Stock Holdings Top $200 Billion.

• It has surpassed 300 trillion won.
• A brief return-to-office wind in March caused holdings to dip below $150 billion by month-end, but they have since rebounded.
• This month alone, they purchased $620 million worth of Intel shares.
• They poured $480 million into SOXS, dubbed the semiconductor “double inverse ETF,” which profits when chip indices fall.
• Beyond that, individual investors’ U.S. market investments have concentrated on big tech like Micron and Alphabet.
• Related Link.

U.S. Debt Ratio Surpasses 100%.

• The New York Times noted, “The real problem is that there’s no end in sight.”
• The U.S. Congressional Budget Office projects it will hit 175% by 2056.
• The analysis: “No disaster occurred even after surpassing 100%, and doing nothing is far easier than doing something.”
• U.S. Treasury yields have risen from 1% in 2020 to 5.12% this year.
• Ellen Zentner (Morgan Stanley Strategist) says clients ask, “Is this sustainable?” Her answer? “That’s an easy question. No.”
• Of course, Japan’s debt ratio is higher—201% as of 2024. Japan’s situation differs because most of its debt is domestically held.
• Some analyses suggest the U.S. fiscal situation is worse than Italy’s.
• Trump plans to increase next year’s defense budget by 44%. The budget cuts led by Elon Musk amounted to just $1 billion—0.1% of the target.
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North Korean Soccer Team Arrived with Passports.

• This is not a visit—it is an entry. The AFC Women’s Champions League (AWCL) semifinal will be held at Suwon Sports Complex on the 20th.
• The government decided to use passports for identity verification but not issue visas. Issuing a visa would imply recognition as a separate state, conflicting with constitutional provisions.
• In the past, when South and North Korea visited each other, they issued visit certificates.
• This change emerged after North Korea declared in March that it would treat South Korea as a separate state.
• A crowd gathered to welcome them at Incheon Airport, but the North Korean players’ faces remained stern.
• Related Link.
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Tomorrow’s Korea-Japan Summit in Andong.

• They will eat Andong jjimdak and watch talchum mask dance and pansori performances. A concert by Korean-Japanese musician Bang Eun is also prepared.
• After meeting in March in Nara Prefecture, the hometown of former Prime Minister Tachibana Sanae, they agreed to host the summit in President Lee Jae-myung’s hometown.

One Year in Office, 625 Posts: Lee Jae-myung’s Social Media Footprint.

• Kyunghyang Shinmun analyzed the data. 49% of the posts were uploaded after work hours.
• Summit meetings and diplomatic-related posts accounted for 34%, real estate for 6%.
• There is analysis that the president’s messages serve as government briefings. In fact, they often appear faster than official briefings.
• Yoo Seung-chan (CEO of Storydot) pointed out, “Given the weight of the presidential position, a more systematized verification and posting process is needed than what exists now.”

Will the National Pension Service Increase Its Stake in Korean Stocks?

• It has already exceeded the limit by 10 percentage points. The original target portfolio allocates 15% to Korean stocks, 15% to Korean bonds, 37% to overseas stocks, 8% to overseas bonds, and 15% to alternative investments.
• As of the end of February, the share of Korean stocks already approached 25%. This is not due to increased investment but because rising stock prices have boosted valuation.
• The fund stood at 395 trillion won as of the end of February, growing to 469 trillion won as of the 15th.
• The National Pension Service Fund Management Committee is likely to approve an expansion of the stake at its meeting on the 28th.

Seoul’s Jeonse Listings Drop 23%.

• Talk of a “jeonse extinction era” has emerged. As of May 16, listings have fallen 36%.
• The decline stems from blocked gap investments and jeonse properties shifting to the sales market. Demand for non-villa housing has also risen in the wake of jeonse fraud.
• Monthly rent transactions now account for 51%.
• Park Won-gap (KB Kookmin Bank Senior Researcher) noted, “Revisions to the Lease Protection Act are essential, along with expanded public rental housing and housing voucher support.”
• Related Link.

“Why Are Pro-Government Voices Acting Like This?”.

• “The Lee Jae-myung government’s real estate policies seem destined to fail.”
• This is the analysis of Chae Sang-wook (CEO of Connected Ground). In an interview with JoongAng Ilbo, he said, “Many might ask, ‘Why are pro-government voices acting like this?’ but if stabilization measures continue to be inadequately rolled out for over a year as they are now, it’s better not to support the government at all.”
• Seoul apartment sale prices have risen by 3.12% this year.
• Jeonse prices increased by 2.9%, and monthly rents by 0.6%.
• As the rental market destabilizes, rental refugees are multiplying, and FOMO (fear of missing out) is driving speculative buying in mid-to-low-priced apartments on the outskirts.
• Some analysts suggest that disposable income from the stock market boom is poised to flow into real estate.
• Related Link.

The Fix.

Did Smartphones Lower Birth Rates?

• South Korea saw a slight rebound, but over two-thirds of countries now have fertility rates below 2.1.
• It’s not just a developed-world issue: Mexico’s rate is lower than America’s. The trend also appears in Brazil, Tunisia, and Sri Lanka.
• The Financial Times analyzed, “The direct cause is fewer married (or cohabiting) couples,” and “increasing rates of singlehood among economically struggling groups.” Multiple explanations exist.
• First, housing is a major issue—but even couples with homes are having fewer children.
• Second, shifting economic roles between genders may play a part.
• Third, the smartphone theory is the most consistent: nearly every country saw fertility rates plummet after smartphone adoption.
• Young women’s expectations have risen, but ideological divides also widened. While women shifted toward progressive views, men often remained conservative—a gap possibly linked to smartphone use.
• Melissa Kearney (University of Notre Dame Professor) said, “The decline in romantic partnerships due to digital media is a plausible explanation.” In South Korea, face-to-face socializing among young adults halved over 20 years.
• The Financial Times noted, “Incentives to help happy couples have children may fail to address the root problem: many never find a partner in the first place.”
• Related Link.
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Today Is International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia, and Biphobia.

• It marks the day the WHO (World Health Organization) removed homosexuality from its list of mental disorders.
• Sexual minorities experience higher rates of depression, anxiety, and mental health struggles. Yet, those who openly identify as LGBTQ+ report higher subjective happiness than the Korean average.
• Park Han-hee (Attorney at “Hope Lawyers”) emphasized, “The issue is discrimination, not the existence of sexual minorities themselves. The day this obvious truth was officially recognized was May 17, 1990.”

ICYMI.

Why Beam Suntory Is Halting Production Until Next Year.

• There was a time when bourbon whiskey was bottled at a rate of one barrel every 93 seconds, but production has been halted since January this year.
• Americans are drinking less, and exports have also declined.
• The whiskey stockpiled during the COVID-19 pandemic remains at 16.1 million barrels in Kentucky alone—enough for 300 million bottles. Even with factories idle, supply could sustain demand for a decade without strain.
• Related Link.

The Hippos Left Behind by the Drug Kingpin.

• This is the story of Pablo Escobar. He kept four hippos as pets, but when the Medellín Cartel collapsed in 1993, the hippos scattered.
• There are now around 200 of them, and their numbers are expected to exceed 1,000 by 2035. Unlike in Africa, Colombia has no natural predators for hippos.
• They eat so much that there are concerns manatees and capybaras could face extinction. Their waste is also massive, causing severe water pollution. Traffic accidents involving hippos on roads are frequent.
• The Colombian government launched a $2 million project to reduce the hippo population.
• Hippos are strong and large, making sterilization difficult. Capturing one costs $40,000. The government plans to euthanize 80 of the 200 hippos, but it’s not simple.
• An Indian billionaire stepped forward to take them, but capturing 80 hippos and transporting them by ship is a massive undertaking.
• A local resident interviewed by The New York Times said, “They’re just animals. Hippos have nothing to do with Escobar.” In fact, they reportedly contribute significantly to tourism revenue.
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Buldak Daughter-in-Law Ascends to Samyang Foods Chairman.

• Kim Jung-soo (Samyang Foods Vice Chairman) has been promoted to Chairman.
• Over 80% of Samyang Foods’ revenue comes from overseas. The company aims for 3 trillion won in sales this year.
• Products sold under the Buldak brand reached 9 billion units as of last year.
• Operating profit margins exceed 20%.

1 Trillion Won, Hana Financial’s Investment in Dunamu.

• It has secured 6.6% of the shares held by KakaoInvestment.
• Song Chi-hyung (Dunamu Chairman) holds 25.5%, Kim Hyung-nol (Dunamu Vice Chairman) 13.1%, Woori Technology Investment 7.2%, making Hana Financial the fourth-largest shareholder.
• Dunamu is pushing to merge with Naver Financial. Once approved by the Fair Trade Commission, the country’s top financial holding company, leading digital asset exchange, and top fintech firm will form a digital finance alliance.
• KakaoInvestment sold the shares it acquired for 3.5 billion won in 2022 for 1 trillion won, reaping a profit over 300 times its initial investment.
• Related Link.

Why Truth Social Went Silent.

• Trump did not post once during his visit to China. He reportedly avoided using his phone entirely due to hacking concerns.
• Admission badges and disposable smartphones were confiscated and discarded immediately before boarding Air Force One.
• A New York Post reporter stated, “No items received in China could be brought onto the presidential aircraft.”

Everyone Gets an A+ Report.

• Harvard limited A-grade students to 25% two decades ago, but this year it rose to 60%.
• Grade inflation is severe across universities, yet students are said to have only improved their AI utilization skills.
• Handwritten exams or oral response tests have also increased.
• Related Link.
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Warren Buffett’s Luncheon: $9 Million.

• The highest bid was $19 million in 2022. All proceeds go to charities supporting the underprivileged.
• Warren Buffett (Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway) stepped down as CEO last year but remains involved in investment decisions.
• Berkshire Hathaway recently purchased an additional 40 million shares of Alphabet.

Worth Reading.

Is the Right Not to Be Offended Overblown?

• A petition to ban amusement park “magic passes” sparked debate. Many elementary schools now avoid dividing students into winners and losers during sports days. Some even prohibit birthday parties.
• Moon So-young (JoongAng Ilbo columnist) pointed out, “Regulatory standards should not be based on the feelings of the most easily offended person, but on the judgment of a ‘reasonable average person’ as defined in legal theory.”
• “Lest the good intention of creating a society without hurt ultimately produce one devoid of freedom, diversity, or progress through competition, we must now relearn how to endure offense rather than merely how to eliminate it,” the argument goes.
• Related Link.

Sandwich Dilemma at Évian.

• The G7 summit will be held in Évian, France, on the 15th of next month. South Korea, India, Brazil, and Kenya have been invited.
• Trump may present specific demands, such as troop deployment to the Strait of Hormuz, at this meeting. The European Union is likely to propose alternative conditions.
• Yu Geun-hyung (Dong-A Ilbo Paris correspondent) emphasized, “Sophisticated scenario analysis and meticulous preparation for the harsh risks of international politics are essential.”
• Related Link.

Google’s Elusive Semiconductor.

• South Korea holds that semiconductor.
• Sundar Pichai (Google CEO) said, “A shortage of chips has hindered our growth.” Google’s unfulfilled orders due to failed deliveries amount to $462 billion.
• As Kim Yong-beom (Blue House Policy Director) noted, “The dream of becoming the first nation to translate AI-era surplus profits into human welfare—beyond merely supplying AI infrastructure—may not remain a dream.”
• Park Tae-woong (Nokseo Forum Chairman) warned, “If we squander this brief window of opportunity, we’ll face melting job markets and bottomless economic chasms.”
• Related Link.