What Trump Did Not Say.

• Sometimes what is not said is more important than what is said.
• There were speculations that Donald Trump (U.S. President) would declare an end to the war, but his Truth Social posts did not go beyond what he had already written.
• Trump mentioned four points: First, the war was necessary. Second, the U.S. had already won. Third, the war must continue. Fourth, the war will end soon.
• These four points contradict each other. Trump did not explain how to end it or how to negotiate.
• “The U.S. will return Iran to the Stone Age within 2-3 weeks” was also a statement made on Truth Social.
• He said “it will end soon” a month ago and repeated it 13 times over the month. The lack of new statements means there is no plan.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

What Matters Now.

“Let the Disappointed Nations Unclog Hormuz.”.

• “Once the war ends, the Strait of Hormuz will open,” while insisting, “countries buying oil from this region must take the lead.” The U.S. is signaling it wants out.
• “If you need oil, buy it from the U.S.,” was another suggestion.

Is This Considered a Short War?

• It dates back to World War I.
• World War I lasted 4 years and 4 months, but the U.S. involvement was only 1 year and 7 months.
• World War II lasted 3 years and 8 months, the Korean War 3 years and 1 month.
• The Vietnam War lasted 19 years and 5 months, the Iraq War 8 years and 8 months.
• The Iran war is now at 32 days—shorter than others, but it’s too early to say.
• Trump once criticized George H.W. Bush (former U.S. President), calling the Iraq War “a colossal mistake.” He also said, “I will stop the war within 24 hours of being elected.” Yet the U.S. started the dumbest war in history and failed to end it.
• Related Link.

Trump’s Misconception: The U.S. Has Plenty of Oil.

• Paul Krugman (New York City University professor) refuted this point by point.
• The U.S. is the world’s top oil producer, but it still imports gasoline and diesel.
• Gasoline prices have risen, and diesel prices have surged even more. It costs an additional $100 billion annually. Fertilizer prices have also climbed, as have polyethylene prices. Plastic prices follow suit.
• Rising costs make interest rate cuts harder. The risk of economic recession grows.
• Related Link.

Oil Prices Surge, Stocks Plummet.

• Oil prices began to spike as soon as Trump started speaking.
• The KOSPI index dropped 4.5%.
• U.S. stocks initially plummeted but rebounded. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq closed at -0.11%, -0.13%, and +0.18%, respectively.
• Related Link.

America’s Weakness Exposed.

• Iran maintains it will not engage in negotiations, viewing the U.S. as cornered. Even if talks occur, deep distrust persists that America could renege.
• The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued this statement: “This war will continue until it leads to your disgrace, humiliation, eternal regret, and surrender.”

The Iranian President’s Letter.

• It was a dignified letter. “The choice between confrontation and cooperation is a substantive and critical one that will determine the fate of future generations,” it emphasized, highlighting three points.
• First, Iran harbors no hostility. It is a product of great powers’ need to create enemies to dominate markets.
• Second, there is a fundamental question of whether this war truly represents the interests of the American people. Exaggerated threats have tarnished America’s image.
• Third, is this not an attack on Iran orchestrated by Israel? This war is inconsistent with America First principles.
• The post has garnered 15.88 million views on X.
• Related Link.

Deep Dive.

Is the Hormuz Transit Fee $1 Per Barrel?

• Bloomberg analysis. It is said to be received in yuan or stablecoins.
• Last year, South Korea imported 717 million barrels of crude oil from the Middle East. Even a $1 surcharge would add 1.09 trillion won in costs.
• The Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) has stated that pre-war oil prices are unlikely for some time. Even if the war ends quickly, prices could reach $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter of next year, $117 if prolonged, and surge to $174 if energy infrastructure is targeted.
• Related Link.

Not a Shower, but a Storm Is Coming.

• This was what President Lee Jae-myung (President) said in yesterday’s National Assembly policy address. Originally scheduled for the morning, it was postponed to the afternoon due to Trump’s speech.
• “This supplementary budget will be a breakwater protecting people’s lives from the waves of crisis,” he said. Given the circumstances, a significant number of People Power Party lawmakers remained in their seats.
• He emphasized two points.
• First, the more severe the crisis, the more robustly we must protect the socially vulnerable.
• Second, we must not miss the golden time for economic recovery.

Hong Joon-pyo’s Endorsement of Kim Bu-gyeom.

• “If Daegu is to leap forward, it cannot avoid seeking help from the Lee Jae-myung government,” he wrote, later clarifying amid controversy, “I meant support for Kim Bu-gyeom, not the Democratic Party.”
• He also noted, “Daegu votes recklessly, so it’s treated as a discarded child by the regime.”
• Koo Hye-young (The Kyunghyang Shinmun columnist) assessed, “Hong Joon-pyo responded to Kim Bu-gyeom’s desperate plea: ‘Only by abandoning the People Power Party can Daegu survive.’”
• Related Link.

People Power Party to Re-Run Chungcheongbuk-do Governor Primary.

• Kim Young-hwan (Chungcheongbuk-do Governor), previously cut off, is returning and disrupting the schedule.
• The process will now involve preliminary primaries, with finalists facing Kim after he was reinstated.
• The Daegu mayoral nomination remains pending as Joo Ho-young (People Power Party lawmaker) has filed for a provisional injunction.
• Gyeonggi Province has yet to finalize its nomination method. They are pushing for Yoo Seung-min (former Saenuri Party lawmaker), who has not yet relocated. The deadline for address change is today (3rd).
• Related Link.

First Recognition of Employer Status Under the Yellow Envelope Law.

• Accepted the claims of the subcontractor union at the Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety. The first case since the Yellow Envelope Law took effect on the 10th of last month.
• 153 applications requesting a determination of employer status remain pending at the Labor Commission.

Jeon Jae-soo’s Busan Bid, Will Ha Jung-woo Fill the Void?

• Jeon Jae-soo (Democratic Party lawmaker), who resigned as Minister of Oceans and Fisheries amid allegations of receiving funds from the Unification Church, is running for Busan mayor.
• If Jeon steps down from his parliamentary seat, the Busan Buk-gap constituency will become vacant.
• Jeon said, “I look forward to the emergence of a new generation like Ha Jung-woo (Chief of AI Future Planning, Blue House).”
• Speculation about Ha Jung-woo’s potential candidacy has indeed gained traction.
• Last December, Lee Jae-myung (President) remarked during a Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries briefing in Busan, “Isn’t Ha GPT’s hometown Busan? Why not stay here instead of coming and going?”

Another Take.

America Has Become a Rogue State.

• This is the assessment of Stephen Walt (Harvard University professor). “It may seem like a victory for now, but it will leave the U.S. poorer, less secure, and with diminished influence,” he predicted.
• Stephen Walt advised, “When dealing with unreliable partners, it’s prudent to reduce dependence on them, even if it incurs some cost.”
• Kim Ji-eun (Hankyoreh International News Team Leader) evaluated, “We are witnessing the irreversible collapse of the values and norms the international community has built since World War II.” The implication: what distinguishes the U.S. from those countries it once called rogue states?
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

A Single Prosecutor Handles 600 Cases.

• Unsolved cases are piling up ahead of the prosecution service’s abolition in October.
• 233 prosecutors have left the service since last year until March of this year—over 10% of the total 2,292 authorized positions.
• Chosun Ilbo noted, “The prosecution’s incapacitation is no longer just about weakened investigative power—it’s now directly harming the public.”
• Related Link.

“30 Years of Loyalty, This Is the Gratitude?”.

• Kim Bu-gyeom (former Prime Minister), running for Daegu mayor, made this remark.
• He publicly shared his phone number, now receiving 200 calls daily.
• Text messages exceeded 1,000 within two days.
• While speculation suggests a potential presidential bid if elected, he drew a line: “Daegu mayor is the final chapter of my political career.”
• Related Link.

“When the Enemy Makes Mistakes, Don’t Interfere.”.

• The Economist cited Napoleon’s words in its cover story.
• China is relishing this situation. If the U.S. remains bogged down in the Middle East, it’s not bad for Beijing. As American power wanes, Chinese influence grows. It even strengthens the justification for bolstering security.
• What if demand for renewable energy—solar panels, batteries—rises? China, which dominates these markets, stands to gain.
• However, if the U.S. economy falters, China cannot avoid collateral damage.
• A full-scale invasion of Taiwan is likely to be reconsidered more cautiously.
• Related Link.

The Fix.

“Nuclear Power Is Inevitable in the Current Situation.”.

• Kim Sung-hwan (Minister of Climate, Energy, and Environment) made this statement. He emphasized that the government will take a different path from the Moon Jae-in administration.
• South Korea’s renewable energy generation was 37GW last year. To meet the 2030 target of 100GW, the country must add over 10GW annually.
• “We could say we’ll go 100% renewable, but that would mean the entire cost burden falls on electricity rates. If we refuse nuclear power, we’ll end up with a ‘Phase 2’ of the Moon administration’s nuclear phase-out. That debate could consume all our time, leaving us unable to phase out coal or expand renewables. We must break free from that framework.”

Automotive Triumvirate Unions Propose Dialogue.

• Anxiety looms large over AI and humanoid integration. The metalworkers’ union-affiliated triad of automotive unions has proposed forming a tripartite consultative body.
• The government has yet to respond.
• In an editorial, Hankyoreh warned, “If the employment ecosystem collapses by short-sightedly chasing profits while excluding labor’s value, the resulting social costs will snowball.”
• Related Link.

ICYMI.

Apple’s 50-Year Journey: Siphoning Japanese Craftsmanship to Build Chinese Might.

• When producing 100,000 units, a 1% defect rate is manageable. But with 50 million units, 1% becomes a critical issue.
• Steve Jobs (Apple co-founder) once believed “locking geniuses in a room would yield brilliant products,” but after being ousted and returning, his perspective shifted.
• Dispersed suppliers force alignment to the lowest common denominator, degrading quality. Apple thus identified top suppliers, invested heavily, absorbed their expertise, and secured patents—strategically dismantling supplier monopolies.
• For the iPod Classic, Japanese artisans’ manual processes were filmed, analyzed, converted into mathematical codes, and automated in Chinese factories.
• BYD’s rise to a global EV leader—while supplying Apple’s metal casings—was no coincidence.
• Apple’s engagement with Sharp is telling. Approaching the struggling company (lagging behind Korean rivals), Apple invested $1 billion and converted its TV factory into a smartphone panel plant. Reports claim Apple staff operated a secret office in Sharp’s facility, accessing manufacturing methods and cost structures.
• When needed, Sharp’s factories ran at over 90% capacity; when not, they halted. “They swallowed a poisoned apple,” critics said. Japan’s top tech firms became anonymous Apple subcontractors.
• The Financial Times analyzed, “Apple didn’t just outsource production—it played a central role in building China’s industrial capabilities.”
• Apple makes one-fifth of global smartphones, but not without China. Beyond assembly, Chinese firms absorbed tacit knowledge, building manufacturing prowess. They now hold 50% of the smartphone market.
• While Apple pursued the high-margin “smile curve” (focusing on design and marketing), China embraced the “grimy curve,” dominating low-margin manufacturing.
• Apple’s once-competitive global supply chain is now a liability. It no longer controls it.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

College Students Are Switching Majors.

• Results from the Lumina Foundation survey. 47% of U.S. college students said they’ve considered changing their major. Female students and male students stood at 38% and 60%, respectively.
• 16% actually changed their major.
• Related Link.

Artemis II Launch Success.

• It’s a 1.1 million km flight to survey the far side of the Moon. The journey takes ten days: two orbits around Earth, a close lunar approach, and a return.
• The trajectory approaches within 6,500 km of the Moon. It arrives near the Moon on day six and returns on day eleven.
• After passing the Moon, it performs a slingshot maneuver—changing direction using gravity without fuel. Even if propulsion systems fail, it can still return.
• The Moon contains valuable minerals like helium-3. One gram of helium-3 equals the energy of 40 tons of coal. The Moon holds one million tons of helium-3. Some analyses suggest the Moon’s economic value could reach $127.3 billion by 2050. Is the era of “lunanomics” dawning?

Worth Reading.

The Era of ‘Just-in-Time’ Fades, Giving Way to ‘Expensive Safety’.

• Just-in-Time refers to a system of producing and supplying exactly what is needed, when it is needed, and in the required quantity.
• Kim Hak-kyun (Center Head of ShinYoung Securities Research) analyzed that the Just-in-Time era has hit three major obstacles.
• First, political backlash against globalization. As countries prioritize domestic interests, survival has taken precedence over efficiency.
• Second, supply chains have become weaponized. The perception that it’s safer to stockpile—even at higher cost—has solidified.
• Third, economics no longer operates independently from politics. Secure value alliances determine corporate survival.
• Hence, the shift from Just-in-Time to Just-in-Case (prepared for contingencies). Trends include increasing inventory and investing in supply chain resilience.
• As redundant investments and excess stockpiles are accepted, prices rise.
• “The cheap and fast world promised by JIT is receding; now, we must choose supply chains that never break—even if they are expensive,” goes the narrative.
• Related Link.

Monthly Interest Alone: $1 Trillion, America’s Aging Abyss.

• U.S. national debt has surpassed $39 trillion. Monthly interest payments alone exceed $1 trillion.
• Lee Jeong-eun (Deputy Head of The Dong-A Ilbo) noted, “Fiscal pressure will lead to attempts to fill empty coffers in other ways,” adding, “Re-escalating tariff pressures on major trading partners is a foreseeable scenario.”
• The U.S. is no longer a hegemon with limitless fiscal capacity. The story is that America’s crisis will ricochet as a massive shock to allies’ security and markets.
• Related Link.

Bubble or Not?

• Kim Young-ik (Hanyang University Professor) is closely watching three signals.
• First, there is excessive capital concentration in AI companies.
• Second, inflationary pressures make interest rate cuts difficult.
• Third, the private credit market is unstable.
• The core issue is not price but credit. If the credit market collapses, it will mark a completely different phase.
• “Innovation attracts capital, capital expands credit, credit drives up prices. Rising prices breed overconfidence, and that overconfidence leads to collapse. The most critical variable in this process is not technology but human psychology. Bull markets create conviction, conviction justifies leverage. And the phrase that enables this justification is ‘This time is different.’”
• Will this time be different? It could be. Still, Kim Young-ik advises preparing for the worst-case scenario: “Reducing leverage, securing liquidity, protecting cash flow, understanding the structure, and waiting—this simple principle becomes the most powerful strategy in moments of crisis.”
• Related Link.