“Alaska Investment Not Finalized.”.

• South Korea’s government refuted Donald Trump’s (U.S. President) announcement.
• Trump stated, “Today, thanks to agreements concluded between South Korea and our administration, I’m pleased to announce one of the largest energy infrastructure investments in U.S. history.”
• Kim Jeong-gwan’s (Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy) account differs: the $22 billion Texas thermal power plant was agreed upon, but the eight nuclear reactors and Alaska pipeline project remain under review.
• Kim expressed regret over “statements that went beyond the agreement.”
• Related Link.

Will the Alaska Pipeline Turn a Profit?

• An industry ministry official noted, “Even if the pipeline is built somehow, costs will inevitably exceed initial estimates,” adding, “If these increased expenses are passed on to LNG prices, the final cost will become significantly higher.”
• Selling at a high price risks having no buyers, while selling cheaply could lead to unprofitable returns—a classic dilemma.
• Critics also point out that constructing facilities for workers to eat and sleep will be challenging, given the region’s lack of permanent residents.
• Related Link.

Not What the Fact Sheet Said.

• First, commence working on project review contingent on commercial viability.
• Second, support Korean company participation.
• Third, guarantee LNG purchase contracts at economically feasible prices.
• Beyond these three points, nothing else has been agreed upon.
• Kim Jeong-gwan (Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy) emphasized, “Both countries share the understanding that the project will not proceed if it lacks commercial viability.”
• Lee Jae-myung (President) also set the record straight on X, stating, “We agreed to commence ‘working.’”
• Related Link.

Taxpayer Dollars as Chips in a U.S. Election Gamble.

• Chosun Ilbo assessed, “It was a campaign rally for the U.S. Republican Party.” An investment announcement with not a single South Korean official present. “We” referred to Americans, while South Korea was called “they.”
• Howard Lutnick (U.S. Secretary of Commerce) actually stated, “We no longer have to endure daily calls from Dan Sullivan (Republican Senator, Alaska) hounding us.”
• Can South Korea withstand U.S. pressure? Heo Jeong (Sogang University professor) said, “Given the tariff issue, I think the likelihood of eventual acceptance is high.” “It’s electioneering for now, but it’s unlikely to be reversed after the election,” he added.
• An anonymous expert interviewed by Kyunghyang Shinmun said, “It can be seen as a gesture of ‘lip service’ to some extent, so we must strive not to be dragged along contrary to our original judgment.”
• In an editorial, Kyunghyang Shinmun criticized, “This is no less than a diplomatic overreach and coercion.” It emphasized, “Forcing through a project ‘against one’s will’ is unacceptable under any circumstances.”
• Related Link.
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What Matters Now.

Korean Reactors to Be Built First.

• A staggering $120 billion.
• Of the eight reactors, six will be Westinghouse’s AP1000, and the remaining two will be Korea’s APR1400.
• Kim Jeong-gwan (Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy) stated, “There was considerable debate over the construction sequence,” emphasizing, “The Korean model will come first.”
• The construction cost is $100 billion, with a $20 billion contingency fund—even if this is exceeded, no additional burden will apply. Observers note that U.S. construction costs are over three times higher than Korea’s, making it highly likely they will surpass their contingency budget.
• Park Jong-woon (Dongguk University professor) warned, “If existing negotiation terms—such as restrictions on Europe-only participation—remain unchanged, this could become a project where Korea gains nothing but transfers technology to the U.S.”
• Related Link.

Will South Korea Pay Royalties for U.S. Reactors Built by Korean Firms?

• South Korean companies are building reactors in the U.S. with South Korean funds, yet face a situation where they must pay $2 billion per reactor in royalties.
• A proposal to pay Westinghouse $4 billion for two APR1400 units—covering technology fees and nuclear fuel costs—is under discussion.
• Acquiring Westinghouse shares is also critical. Kim Jeong-gwan (Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy) explained, “Adjusting the stake below 10% reflects Westinghouse’s reluctance to allow Korean board representation.”
• The government claims domestic firms could expand participation in the six AP1000 units, but nothing is finalized.
• Related Link.

“An Unexpected Accident.”.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) refrained from elaborating in his Armed Forces Day speech.
• He only said, “I still feel pained thinking of our soldiers who were injured in an unexpected accident in the DMZ recently,” without mentioning landmines or holding North Korea accountable.
• Jeong Jeom-sik (People Power Party floor leader) criticized, “This was a clear provocation by North Korea—using the phrase ‘unexpected accident’ calls into question his qualifications as commander-in-chief.”
• Chosun Ilbo editorialized, “An ‘unexpected accident’ implies unforeseen misfortune like a traffic collision,” questioning, “Is this an attempt to frame the incident as victimless?”
• The Hankyoreh assessed, “This was an appropriate message from the commander-in-chief for crisis management and peaceful resolution.”
• JoongAng Ilbo editorialized, “Why can’t it be defined as a provocation?” and questioned, “How many citizens would agree with this approach of unilaterally lowering tensions toward North Korea?”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
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Cho Hee-dae Did Not Attend.

• He had attended the Armed Forces Day event annually, but yesterday cited health issues and instead reported to the Supreme Court.
• The matter of nominating Supreme Court justices remains stalled.

Farewell to the Prosecutors’ Office.

• D-0, the Prosecutors’ Office closes today. Investigations and prosecutions will be split between the Investigation Agency and the Prosecution Service.
• Many worry preparations remain incomplete.
• A prosecutor who received a passing notice for the Investigation Agency said, “No personnel orders have been issued, so I don’t even know where to report on the 2nd.”
• 160,000 unsolved cases from the Prosecutors’ Office will be transferred to the police and the Investigation Agency.
• A senior prosecutor remarked, “Whereas one lawyer used to suffice, now we may need to hire two or three.”
• Kim Ye-won (lawyer at the Disability Rights Law Center) pointed out, “Victims will now have to personally invest time and money to scrutinize police negligence within limited deadlines—a task the Prosecutors’ Office previously handled for free.”
• Chosun Ilbo criticized in an editorial, “If a private company had operated this way, its executives would have been disciplined, and the institution would have been dissolved or bankrupted.”
• Park Chan-woon (professor at Hanyang University) noted, “October 2nd is not the day prosecutorial reform is completed, but the day its true verification begins.”
• Lee Jae-myung said, “The prosecutorial reform sown during the Participation Government, cultivated under the Moon Jae-in administration, has finally borne fruit under our people-sovereign government.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

One Bad Prosecutor Doesn’t Invalidate All Prosecutors.

• The personnel hearing consent bill for Kim Ji-yong (Investigation Agency chief nominee), who faced pro-Yoon controversies, has been sent to the National Assembly.
• Lee Jae-myung (President) argued, “If we say we shouldn’t use former prosecutors as heads of critical investigative agencies just because they’re ex-prosecutors, that’s akin to destroying the agency.” In a post on X, he emphasized, “Kim Ji-yong is anti-Yoon, not pro-Yoon.”
• Seong Gi-hong (Chief of Presidential Public Communications) claimed, “Just because some bad prosecutors existed doesn’t justify excluding all prosecutors from state functions—this is closer to destruction under the guise of reform.”
• Related Link.

“A Committee to Punish Pro-Japanese Collaborators—With a Collaborator as Chair.”.

• To push through Kim Ji-yong’s appointment, the ruling party must suppress backlash from Democratic Party hardliners.
• Kim Yong-min (Democratic Party lawmaker) argued, “How can we appoint a pro-Japanese collaborator as chair of a committee meant to punish collaborators?”
• Choo Mi-ae (Gyeonggi Province Governor) left a pointed post: “I went to a restaurant recommended as a ‘must-visit’ but found the hygiene deplorable and the staff rude,” adding, “After realizing the signage didn’t match reality, I couldn’t recommend it to others.”
• Related Link.

Policy Chief: Ha Joon-kyung.

• Ha Joon-kyung (Blue House Economic Growth Senior Secretary) was promoted to Policy Chief, with Moon Shin-hak (Vice Minister of Trade, Industry, and Energy) named his successor.
• Ha Joon-kyung is a professor emeritus from Hanyang University. He oversaw the government’s strategy to redirect real estate-focused capital into the stock market.
• Kyeongyang Shinmun assessed, “The appointment emphasizes continuity in economic policy and stable governance.”
• The Hankyoreh pointed out, “Real estate issues will inevitably be his first test.” “He failed to make a distinct mark as Economic Growth Senior Secretary, and his capabilities in real estate remain unproven,” it added.
• A successor for Kang Hoon-sik (former Blue House Chief of Staff) has not yet been decided. Some speculate he may retain his position temporarily, as his resignation has not been formally accepted.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

“Let’s Do It ‘Left-Elegantly’ Together.”.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) wrote this on X. It’s a slang term used among “New Lee Jae-myung” supporters, replacing the “right” (우) in “우아하다” (elegant) with “left” (좌) to reflect progressive values.
• Criticism flooded the Ddanzi Ilbo forum, calling it “Ilbe-level terminology” and “social media addiction.”
• The DC Inside “New Lee Jae-myung” gallery featured positive takes: “The president knows ‘좌아’—truly the king of communication” and “The unity between the president and supporters is insane.”
• Park Jeong-ha (People Power Party lawmaker) criticized, “There’s not a shred of presidential dignity in twisting even millennia-old Korean language solely for the base.”
• The Reform Party issued a statement: “Where’s the president who promised to bridge left and right? Now he’s borrowing hardline supporters’ slang to flaunt ‘left-elegance’?”
• Jeong Woo-sang (Chosun Ilbo columnist) noted, “Less than 0.0001% of citizens would understand ‘좌아하게’—one wonders with whom he’s even trying to communicate.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Thirty Cases in Three Days.

• President Lee Jae-myung’s X is boiling over.
• Kim Yoon-cheol (Kyung Hee University professor) advised, “The messaging is very direct and confrontational—it needs management.” “Even if it’s frustrating, infuriating, or stifling, ‘strategic patience’ is necessary.”
• Lee Jong-hoon (political commentator) pointed out, “The more statements are made, the more frequent mistakes become, and the higher the likelihood of controversy.” “If the president directly addresses every issue, senior Blue House officials and ministers will clam up.”
• Yoon Tae-gon (The More Political Analysis Director) noted, “The president seems to be feeling isolated.”
• Related Link.

Exclusion of Judge Ji Gwi-yeon from Trial.

• Supreme Court issued a judicial research assignment until February next year. It’s a directive to step back from trials.
• Judges have no formal suspension provisions, so their affiliation remains. Ji Gwi-yeon (Seoul Northern District Court Chief Judge) is currently indicted for violating the Anti-Bribery Law.
• Related Link.

Deep Dive.

86 Consecutive Weeks of Rise.

• Home prices broke the Moon Jae-in administration’s record for consecutive increases.
• Critics argue it’s not “leveling” but “upward standardization.” The Hankyoreh called it a “balloon effect.” Some observe the upward trend is slowing.
• Nam Hyuk-woo (Woori Bank researcher) forecasted, “Other ‘Han River Belt areas’ in Seoul—where prices are lower than Gangnam’s three districts and tax burdens are lighter—have significant potential for further increases.”
• Yang Ji-young (Shinhan Premier expert) noted, “Except for some distressed sales in Gangnam’s three districts, asking prices remain high. With jeonse and monthly rents pushing up sale prices across Seoul, the upward trend will likely persist.” She added, “A temporary dip could occur if interest rates rise further, but it’s expected to be short-lived.”
• Kim Hak-ryul (SmartTube Real Estate Research Institute director) cautioned, “Buyers should be cautious about maxing out loan limits, as repaying principal and interest could become burdensome.” Projections suggest the Bank of Korea’s base rate could rise from 3.00% to 3.75% next year.
• Related Link.
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U.S. Treasuries: Selling Begets Selling.

• U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to 5.34%—the highest since 2002.
• U.K. 30-year gilt yields even surpassed 6%.
• Concerns compounded as inflation, fiscal deficits, and increased bond issuance collided. Falling prices triggered panic selling as investors unable to absorb losses dumped bonds, amplifying the decline.
• Mike Bell (RBC BlueBay Asset Management head of market strategy) said, “Many are being forced to cut losses on long positions or simply don’t want to hold bonds as rates keep rising.” The FT labeled it a “vicious loop of selling.”
• Brent crude futures hovered near $100 a barrel, but Dated Brent—reflecting actual delivery prices—hit roughly $121 the previous day.
• Corporate strain intensified. European investment-grade corporate bonds now yield 0.9 percentage points more than government debt.

5% Treasury Yields: The New Normal.

• S&P 500’s 12-month forward P/E ratio is 19.17x, with an earnings yield of approximately 5.22%.
• Kim Ye-seul (IBK Securities researcher) noted that while this means “equity expected returns and Treasury yields are now nearly equal,” the primary reason stocks are holding up is “corporate earnings.”
• Kang Dae-seung (SK Securities researcher) analyzed, “High rates will exacerbate economic slowdowns in non-AI sectors, deepening the AI investment concentration.”
• Related Link.

Four Upsides to Rising Rates.

• Ian Harnett (Absolute Strategy Research chief investment strategist) analyzed it this way.
• First, it could signal stronger growth.
• Second, it makes investing more cautious.
• Third, it may reduce financial transactions relying on cheap money.
• Fourth, it creates alternatives beyond stocks.
• Related Link.

U.S. Economy Proves Resilient.

• U.S. Commerce Department revised Q1 GDP growth upward from 2.1% to 2.5%, and Q2 from 1.5% to 2.2%.
• Corporate investment and consumption outperformed expectations. Business investment rose 9.0%. Corporate profits surged 20.8% year-on-year. Consumption grew faster than income.
• Over 770,000 Americans now hold $1M+ in 401K accounts—a 19% jump in Q2 alone.
• The Wall Street Journal attributed bond yield shocks to “accelerating growth and competition for capital.”
• “U.S. economic vitality remains intact,” it concluded.
• Related Link.

Elliott ISDS Ruling Reversed Again.

• Elliott Management (private equity fund) sued the South Korean government, claiming losses from the merger of Cheil Industries and Samsung C&T.
• Elliott demanded 1 trillion won, but the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) recognized $48.49 million, which grew to $113 million with interest and legal fees. The South Korean government lost the first appeal but won the second. Elliott filed a post-ruling arbitration request, which has now overturned the decision.
• The post-ruling tribunal ruled, “There is a causal relationship between the South Korean government’s interference in the National Pension Service’s voting rights during the merger and Elliott’s damages.” It added, “If the merger would have passed without government intervention, there would have been no reason for senior officials to risk criminal liability by influencing the pension fund’s vote.”
• A Ministry of Justice official stated, “There remains an option to file a cancellation lawsuit.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Another Take.

Micron Operating Profit Surges 80.7%.

• It achieved record-high performance. Revenue and operating profit for June–August were $54.23 billion and $43.75 billion. Revenue grew fivefold, operating profit twelvefold.
• Sanjay Mehrotra (Micron CEO) stated, “We expect demand to outpace supply in both 2027 and 2028” and added, “Supply catching up to demand is not yet in sight.”
• Micron’s stock rose 3.0% yesterday. All three major U.S. indices advanced. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq rose 0.19%, 0.04%, and 0.04%, respectively.
• Related Link.

Samsung Electronics Earnings Forecasts Vary Threefold.

• Consensus refers to a compilation of securities firms’ forecasts.
• Samsung Electronics’ 2025 operating profit consensus is 55.2 trillion won, but the highest (66.2 trillion won) and lowest (34.6 trillion won) estimates differ nearly twofold.
• The 2028 gap widens further: 78.4 trillion won vs. 25.4 billion won.
• Lee Min-hee (BNK Investment & Securities analyst) noted, “Google and Meta are shifting from performance competition to cost-efficiency and energy-saving strategies, while OpenAI and Anthropic are slowing frontier model development to focus on security and reliability” and added, “In contrast, manufacturers remain optimistic about long-term demand and are aggressively expanding capacity.”
• Park Yu-ak (Kiwoom Securities senior analyst) projected, “Commodity memory will face heightened price pressure in market share competition against Chinese firms.”
• Samsung’s Q3 revenue and operating profit consensus stand at 20.2 trillion won and 10.9 trillion won. SK Hynix’s are 9.8 trillion won and 7.7 trillion won.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Halting the Arms Race Requires Knowing Each Other’s Speed.

• Since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, the U.S. and Soviet Union maintained a hotline and arms control framework despite hostility—a shared interest in avoiding mutual destruction.
• The New York Times suggests similar cooperation could emerge in the AI race. Drew Pudenberg (MIT professor) and Andrew Ko (Columbia University professor) proposed two conditions:
• First, competitors must transparently share technological progress. Second, they must agree on what constitutes danger.
• If one side suspects the other is secretly accelerating, it has an incentive to speed up. Conversely, if both confirm neither is crossing a danger threshold, urgency diminishes. Unchecked acceleration by one creates uncontrollable risks for all.
• External monitors verifying corporate capabilities and safety protocols have been discussed. Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO) proposed it; Elon Musk (xAI CEO) and Sam Altman (OpenAI CEO) publicly endorsed it.
• Andrew Ko called it “insufficient to resolve competitive incentives.” Some see imminent catastrophe; others dismiss it as hype. No shared interest in slowing down yet.
• Related Link.

Dragon Breathes Fire.

• As of June this year, 10,118 Japanese companies were based in mainland China. Since 2024, 4,137 have withdrawn. This marks a 30% decrease from 2012 levels.
• Teikoku Databank explained, “Japanese businesses in China are shifting from an expansion phase to a restructuring phase.” The prevailing view is that rather than severing ties entirely, companies aim to diversify supply chains and reduce dependency.
• After Prime Minister (Japan) Sanae Takai’s remarks on Taiwan, China restricted exports of critical minerals. In August this year, the number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan also fell 59% compared to the same month last year.
• Satoru Nagaoka (Hudson Institute research fellow) assessed, “We fed the dragon, and now it breathes fire.”
• Projections suggest the exodus from China will accelerate. Conditions are unfavorable due to plummeting real estate prices, overproduction, and rising labor costs. Companies with factories in China have also suffered significant losses from U.S.-China tensions.
• Related Link.

AI Dividends: Who Bears the Costs Outside the U.S.?

• Sam Altman proposed that major U.S. AI companies contribute 5% equity stakes to a public fund. Bernie Sanders (U.S. Senator) introduced a bill for a national fund to hold 50% stakes in AI giants and distribute profits to citizens.
• Evgeny Morozov (technology critic) criticized the proposal, arguing it could solve U.S. distribution issues while offloading costs onto other countries. “Money is made globally, but profits are shared only with Americans.”
• “There’s an old name for extracting domestic income from foreign land and power: empire.”
• “The AI oligarchy cannot be fixed by solving one injustice while concealing another,” he argued.
• Related Link.

The Fix.

National Medical School to Open in Namwon, Jeollabuk-do.

• Opening in 2030, with an enrollment quota of 100 students. The first graduates will emerge in 2034.
• The state will cover tuition, fees, textbooks, and dormitory costs, but graduates must serve 15 years in public medical or administrative institutions.
• 112 full-time professors are required. Namwon Medical Center will expand from 248 to 500 beds, specializing in geriatric diseases.
• Cho Seung-yeon (head of surgery at Yeongwol Medical Center) said, “112 is the legal minimum—actual operations will require more faculty,” adding, “The government must guarantee treatment standards, research conditions, and present a clear vision to secure talent.”
• Jeong Hyung-joon (policy committee chair of the Health and Medical Coalition) stated, “Long-term support systems—training, career development—must also be established so graduates can continue contributing to public healthcare post-service.”
• Related Link.

Chinese Batteries Powering a 24-Hour Solar Era.

• Chinese batteries dominate 95% of the global ESS (energy storage system) market.
• According to Ember, the price of grid-scale battery packs fell 45% last year. The storage capacity of installed batteries is now 11 times that of five years ago.
• Brent Wanner (Head of the International Energy Agency’s Power Division) said, “Battery storage is like the glue that binds renewable-based systems together.” The idea is to store excess daytime electricity and use it after sunset, reducing reliance on fossil fuel power generation.
• South of Abu Dhabi, a $6 billion solar+battery plant is under construction. It’s designed to supply 1 GW for 24 hours. India has secured 1 GW of solar+storage facilities that provide 24-hour power at lower costs than coal contracts.
• The U.S. has approached batteries as a security issue. It is tightening regulations, citing concerns that Chinese batteries could be remotely controlled or disabled.
• This could create opportunities for Korean companies. Wood Mackenzie forecasts that the U.S. will rely more on alternative suppliers like Samsung SDI and LG Energy Solution.
• There are technical limitations. Costs rise when preparing for prolonged shortages of sunlight and wind. Chinese firms are improving price and duration with sodium batteries and systems storing up to 16 hours.
• Related Link.

Fines Up to 5% of Operating Profit for Three or More Industrial Deaths.

• The revised Industrial Safety and Health Act passed the National Assembly.
• The Ministry of Employment and Labor explained, “The purpose is not to strengthen sanctions but to promote accident prevention by companies.”
• The authority to demand work stoppages has also expanded. If there is an imminent risk of industrial accidents or concerns about such risks, authorities can demand work stoppages from employers, who must comply unless there are exceptional circumstances.
• The Korea Enterprises Federation criticized it as “excessive and unrealistic standards that fail to consider the business environment.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

ICYMI.

Why AI Cannot Replicate Smell.

• Barry Smith (Director of the Institute for the Philosophy of the Mind at University College London) noted, “No matter how good the visuals and sound are, you cannot fully immerse yourself in a digital world if you cannot smell.” The idea is that even if memories are preserved through video and audio, they cannot match real experiences if taste and smell are missing.
• Osmo, a spin-off from Google Brain, is building a data foundation linking molecules to smells. If successful, it could be used to detect diseases or spoiled food.

Monthly Rent for the Water Police Headquarters: 4.6 Billion Won.

• The agency has six office buildings, with rent and management fees totaling 244.8 billion won by December 2031—exceeding 250 billion won when including deposits.
• Park Sang-woong (People Power Party lawmaker) remarked, “How many citizens would agree to demolishing a perfectly functional prosecution service and covering the cost of new offices worth hundreds of billions with taxpayer money?”

Worth Reading.

There Is Room for Dialogue.

• “The most important thing in solving a problem is first, acknowledging that ‘there is a problem.’”
• Gil Yun-hyung (Hankyoreh columnist) said, “Reading Kim Yo-jong’s (North Korea Labor Party Secretary) statement gave me a strange sense of relief.”
• The analysis is that the possibility of inter-Korean dialogue has grown from 0% to around 2–3%.
• Kim Yo-jong emphasized three points:
• First, the fortification of the border is a sovereign act unrelated to military purposes.
• Second, they have never crossed the border.
• Third, baseless accusations are being made.
• The current military demarcation line was drawn on a 1:50,000 scale map in 1953. If the pencil’s thickness is 1mm, it means a 50-meter error occurs.
• Gil Yun-hyung analyzed, “If both Koreas claim they are speaking their own truth, it leads to the conclusion that there is a significant difference in the ‘baseline’ of the military demarcation line each is using.”
• Related Link.

What Has Yoon Suk-yeol Been Doing?

• North Korea began building barriers and laying mines along the border under the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, citing border reinforcement.
• “From April 2024, when North Korea started its border fortification, until October, when the General Staff officially declared the border fortress project, what exactly was the Yoon Suk-yeol government’s defense leadership—from Shin Won-sik (then Minister of National Defense) to Kim Yong-hyun (then Minister of National Defense)—doing?”
• Kim Jong-dae (former Justice Party lawmaker) remarked, “The responsibility for abandoning the frontline during the critical period of 2024 belongs to Yoon Suk-yeol’s security line, which must answer for it in the court of history.”
• Related Link.

From Value Alliance to Extortion Alliance.

• Critics question whether this is investment in the U.S. or aid to the U.S.
• Andrew Yeo (Brookings Institution Korea Chair) warned, “The Alaska gas pipeline project is extremely risky unless the U.S. first invests significant funds in infrastructure and feasibility studies to prove its viability.”
• Kim Ji-hoon (Hankyoreh reporter) noted, “If they could have stopped Trump, who had already made up his mind and pushed forward, we wouldn’t have reached this point,” adding, “It’s nothing but humiliation that an alliance’s interests are so utterly disregarded.”
• Related Link.