Kim Seung-won’s Confirmation Report Passes.

• People Power Party lawmakers walked out en masse as the motion to adopt the confirmation report for Kim Seung-won (nominee for Minister of Justice) was put forward.
• The report stated, “He sufficiently possesses the qualifications and capabilities required of a Minister of Justice.”
• Seo Young-kyo (Democratic Party lawmaker, Judiciary Committee chair) said, “False information spread worldwide, but it seems the truth is now being revealed.”
• Kim Eui-gyeom (Democratic Party lawmaker) said, “The public will understand that the gap in opinions between the People Power Party and the Democratic Party is too wide to easily reconcile.”
• Jeong Jeom-sik (People Power Party floor leader) called it, “A declaration of war on the public to force the dismissal of charges.”
• In an editorial, Chosun Ilbo warned, “The forced appointment of Cho Kuk was the beginning of the end for the Moon Jae-in administration.”
• The Defense Committee also adopted the report for Kang Shin-chul (nominee for Minister of National Defense).
• The Land, Infrastructure and Transport Committee and the Trade, Industry and Energy Committee—both chaired by the People Power Party—canceled their meetings entirely.
• Reports for Lee So-young (nominee for Minister of SMEs and Startups) and Hong Ji-sun (nominee for Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) remain pending.
• The appointment consent motion for Kim Seong-su (Supreme Court justice nominee) passed in the plenary session, with 227 votes in favor out of 268.
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Cho Hee-dae Holds His Ground.

• An Asia-Pacific Chief Justices meeting was held in Seoul. Cho Hee-dae (Chief Justice) stated, “Judicial independence must be upheld no matter what challenges arise.”
• The Blue House requested a re-submission of the appointment nomination for Son Bong-gi (Supreme Court Justice nominee) after initially refusing it, but has received no response.
• Two seats remain vacant, including those of No Tae-ak (former Supreme Court Justice) and Lee Heung-gu (former Supreme Court Justice).
• The Kyunghyang Shinmun editorial criticized, “The issue lies in championing judicial independence while failing to fulfill responsibilities.”
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What Matters Now.

Will the Corruption Investigation Office Launch Without a Chief?

• It is set to open on the 2nd of next month.
• Yoon Ho-jung (Minister of the Interior and Safety) has recommended Kim Ji-yong (nominee for Corruption Investigation Office chief) to Lee Jae-myung (President) for appointment, but has yet to submit a personnel hearing request to the National Assembly.
• The Democratic Party maintains that Kim Ji-yong is unacceptable.
• Kim Ji-yong opposed the prosecution reform bill. In 2020, he also signed a statement by prosecutors opposing the suspension of duties order issued by Choo Mi-ae (then Minister of Justice) to Yoon Seok-youl (then Prosecutor General).
• Kim Yong-min (Democratic Party lawmaker) said, “A figure who positioned himself as a vanguard in defending the prosecution’s investigative power is now seeking to lead the Corruption Investigation Office, a symbol of prosecution reform,” adding, “Even if it means leaving the inaugural chief’s seat temporarily vacant, proper personnel renewal must come first rather than forcing an unfit candidate into the role.”
• According to The Hankyoreh, the Blue House leans toward appointing him. A ruling party insider said, “Most of the raised suspicions have been reported as inconsistent with facts.”
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Key Issues in Lee Jae-myung’s Press Conference Today.

• Two keywords cannot be avoided: constitutional revision for term extension and dismissal of charges.
• Lee Jong-hoon (political commentator) pointed out, “Without an extraordinary explanation that ‘there will be no term extension’ and ‘the right to dismiss charges will not be given to the special prosecutor,’ it will be difficult to reverse public opinion.”
• Yoon Geon-young (Democratic Party lawmaker) said, “The decline in approval ratings is quite serious; support is collapsing without recourse,” adding, “The public has moved from questioning ‘Is the president really like that?’ to outright withdrawing trust.”
• The Kyunghyang Shinmun emphasized in an editorial, “This press conference must be approached with the urgent resolve that it is the last chance to recover governing momentum,” stressing, “Sincerity and humility are the best attitudes for power to gain public support.”
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Patience Is a Virtue.

• Yoon Tae-gon (The Moa Political Analyst) noted, “The president should not be sincere today, as sincerity often leads to emphasizing one’s good intentions and venting frustration.” “Sincerity is usually self-assessed by the speaker, but humility and modesty are judged by the listener.”
• “The president grows impatient when his words and intentions fail to resonate, but when his true feelings are fully exposed, it often backfires. Attempting to shift public perception by strengthening empathy and support usually has the opposite effect. The proper approach is to earn good evaluations and build support through them.”
• Former President Lee Myung-bak once said, “Amid the protesters’ chants, I heard the song ‘Morning Dew,’” and added, “Sitting alone on a dark mountainside, I reproached myself for failing to serve the people with ease,” bowing his head—his approval ratings were at rock bottom.
• Real estate remains an Achilles’ heel. The troop dispatch issue looms. None of these are simple challenges.
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Hormuz Strait Deployment Still Under Review.

• It was supposed to be discussed at yesterday’s NSC (National Security Council) but was postponed. They judged that confirming the U.S. demand level should come first.
• No U.S. investment projects have been finalized yet.
• Woo Won-shik (Democratic Party lawmaker) argued, “The Iran war is a war of U.S. aggression, and our dispatching troops is entirely different from the Korea-U.S. alliance dimension.”
• Kim Joon-hyung (Patriotic Innovation Party lawmaker) said, “There’s a sense that they’ve already decided on deployment and are testing public opinion by leaking information.”
• Park Kwon-il (media sociologist) pointed out, “There is no national interest worth trading for the lives of compatriots.”
• The Zaytun Division, deployed in Iraq, was tasked with post-war reconstruction, but the Hormuz Strait is an active combat zone. The moment a single ship is sent, we become a combatant party and, if defeated, will bear the responsibility for the defeat. Park Kwon-il emphasized, “The reasons why South Korea must never get involved in this war are piled up like mountains.”
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Deep Dive.

The Reckoning of Interest Rates.

• The U.S. raising its benchmark rate has changed everything. Some analysts say, “The world now stands at the threshold of a new era of austerity.”
• Park Jun-woo (Hana Securities analyst) argued, “It’s more accurate to view this as the start of a new rate-hike cycle rather than a one-off adjustment.” The U.S. is expected to raise rates further in December and March next year, reaching a final 4.5%, while the Bank of Korea may hike to 3.25% by year-end and eventually 3.5%.
• Hwang Se-woon (Capital Markets Institute researcher) said, “Households and businesses may face a new level of debt-servicing burden.”
• Mortgage rates could reach up to 8% by year-end.
• Currency forecasts are mixed. Choi Ji-wook (State Street Markets managing director) predicted, “The exchange rate is more likely to rise than fall.” Moon Da-un (Korea Investment & Securities analyst) said, “The initial response to high oil prices may be a strong dollar, but it will eventually shift to a weak dollar.”
• The Bank of Korea may raise rates again. The JoongAng Ilbo reported, “Markets are leaning toward a pause in October, followed by a November hike to 3.25%.”
• In an editorial, the Dong-A Ilbo warned, “Without tightening our belts, we may struggle to survive a long, cold winter.”
• The won-dollar exchange rate rose for six consecutive days, hitting 1,380 won.
• All three major U.S. indices rebounded. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq rose 1.14%, 0.61%, and 1.69%, respectively.
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One-Point Tripartite Dialogue Resumes.

• The last time the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU) left the tripartite committee was in 1999. This one-point dialogue marks a six-year hiatus.
• Yang Kyung-soo (KCTU Chairperson) stated, “We must enter social dialogue to block exceptions to the 52-hour workweek and prevent the push for a ‘white-collar exemption.’”
• Chosun Ilbo emphasized in an editorial, “Easing labor regulations is not a privilege but a matter of national survival.”
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Cracking Down on Speculators, But Hurting Farmers.

• Criticism grows that farmland investigations are unfairly targeting tenant farmers.
• There is the principle of “farmer-owned land.” In South Korea, farmland cannot be leased in principle. Leasing is only permitted in exceptional cases, such as for elderly farmers over 60 who have farmed for at least five years. Illegal leases incur fines.
• Since Lee Jae-myung (President) ordered a full investigation, evicted tenant farmers have increased. Even when land is put up for sale, it often doesn’t sell, and local agricultural cooperatives that lent money against farmland as collateral now fear loan defaults.
• A Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs survey found 2.84 million out of 10.13 million parcels suspected of violating farmland laws—27% of the total.
• A farmer interviewed by Chosun Ilbo listed his land at 200,000 won per pyeong, then dropped it to 100,000, and finally to 60,000. “At my age, should I even pretend to farm land that won’t sell?” he said.
• Jeong Kum-sik (People Power Party floor leader) noted, “The farmland chaos began with a single offhand remark by President Lee Jae-myung in a State Council meeting.”
• Shin Dong-wook (People Power Party supreme council member) criticized it as “a classic case of desk-bound administration with no understanding of local conditions.”
• Kwon Chil-seung (Democratic Party policy chief) acknowledged, “It’s true some farmers are facing inconveniences due to the full farmland investigation.”
• The government is preparing corrective measures. For land used for agriculture but involving illegal leases or minor violations, it will allow formal lease agreements during a grace period.
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Another Take.

Consulting Cartel Exposed.

• Kim Min-seok (Democratic Party leader) stated, “We are checking cases where some polling agencies or consulting firms engaged in abnormal or unethical business practices.”
• Choo Mi-ae (Gyeonggi Governor) spent 2.09 billion won out of her 5.57 billion won election expenses on Park Si-young (political consultant) during the last election. According to News Hada, Choo Mi-ae’s campaign outsourced rally vehicles, billboards, banners, and polling to Park Si-young Inc.
• Hong Eun-kwang (Gyeonggi Province spokesperson) said, “The spending is unproblematic.”
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Land Transaction Permit Zone Residency Requirement Postponed Again.

• Criticism arises that policy consistency is faltering. After a four-month postponement last October, it was extended until year-end in May. Now, it has been delayed another year.
• Lee Eun-hyeong (Research Fellow at the Korea Construction Policy Research Institute) said, “Frequent revisions and supplements can be read as an unprepared policy” and “The government is failing to send consistent signals to the market, such as extending the postponement again after stating in May that ‘the postponement is a temporary measure.’”
• Park Hap-su (Konkuk University Professor) emphasized, “To stabilize the jeonse market, a fundamental policy review is needed, such as lifting land transaction permit zones except in essential areas.”
• Seo Jin-hyeong (Kwangwoon University Professor) pointed out, “If the government’s policy focus on actual residency continues, the rental market will face a reduction in jeonse suppliers.”
• The Hankyoreh explained in an editorial, “While some criticize it as a ‘band-aid solution,’ it is the government’s role to enhance policy effectiveness and mitigate side effects.”
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Silence the Alarm, Dangerous Manual.

• Investigation results of the Safety Engineering fire, which killed 14, have been released. There were 48 fire accidents over five years.
• The alarm sounded and then turned off on the day of the accident.
• A Safety Engineering employee interviewed by Dong-A Ilbo said, “It seems this guideline was issued because they feared production disruptions if everyone evacuated when the alarm rang.”
• The cause was sludge left unattended inside the factory and improper operation of local exhaust systems that remove dust and steam.
• Police applied for arrest warrants for Son Ju-hwan (Safety Engineering CEO) and others, but the court rejected them. The case has been sent to prosecutors for now.
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AI Subscription Fees? Knowledge Service Trade Deficit.

• South Korea’s knowledge service trade balance recorded a $6.44 billion deficit in the first half of this year.
• Park Seong-gon (Head of the Bank of Korea’s Balance of Payments Team) stated, “The absolute amount of AI service subscription fees is not large, but the rate of increase is staggeringly fast.” Based on card spending data, categories including AI services doubled in the first half of this year.
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The Fix.

From 61, Life Returns to Deficit.

• Labor income peaks at 45 at 46.51 million won. The deficit entry has been delayed from age 56 in 2010 to 61 in 2024.
• According to the National Data Service’s National Transfer Accounts statistics, the surplus phase begins at 28 and continues until the 61 age bracket.
• The total lifecycle deficit is 220.1 trillion won.
• Total consumption is 1509.8 trillion won, while labor income is 1289.7 trillion won.
• The elderly deficit is 188.9 trillion won, and the youth deficit is 186.2 trillion won. This is the first time since the 2010 statistics began that the elderly deficit has surpassed the youth deficit.
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Sugar Tax on Cola: Could Cost 175 Won More.

• Kim Sun-min (Lawmaker, Nation Innovation Party) and Lee Soo-jin (Lawmaker, Democratic Party) proposed a sugar tax bill, while Kim Yoon (Lawmaker, Democratic Party) plans to introduce a bill that includes alternative sweetened beverages.
• Based on a 350ml cola can containing 37g of sugar, Kim Yoon’s proposal would add 175 won, Kim Sun-min’s 105 won, and Lee Soo-jin’s 38.5 won.
• A Kim Yoon office official explained, “The goal is not tax revenue expansion but to reduce chronic diseases through beverage desweetening and improve health insurance financial soundness.”
• The UK saw a 47% average reduction in taxed beverages’ sugar content after 2018 implementation, but Thailand’s 11% price increase led to minimal consumption decline.
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ICYMI.

Why Apple Stocks Are Pricier Without AI.

• Apple’s PER (price-to-earnings ratio) is 36 times its projected earnings. Microsoft is at 25x, Alphabet 27x, Meta 21x, and Nvidia 18x. Among the Magnificent 7, only Tesla and Apple are exceptions.
• Robert Armstrong (Financial Times columnist) explained, “Apple sells trust.” The market’s concern that pouring billions into AI infrastructure might not be the best move has made Apple stand out relatively.
• There are analyses questioning how long Apple’s trust premium—rooted in its closed ecosystem—can last.
• For reference, of the world’s 5 billion smartphones, Apple and Samsung account for around 1.4 billion and 1 billion units, respectively.
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Worth Reading.

Trump’s Bullshit.

• Lying requires knowing the difference between truth and falsehood, but ‘bullshit’ is often just random blather to serve one’s purpose.
• Lee Bong-hyun (Research Fellow, Hankyoreh Economic and Social Research Institute) called Trump’s rate-cut claims “economically nonsensical.” It’s a strategy to obscure the ‘truth value’ of his words.
• He’s spouting incoherent claims like: the economy is strong so it deserves lower rates, he’ll distribute $5,000 Trump dividends, tariffs will be paid by China, and trade will halt if rates aren’t cut.
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Prior Consultation Is Key.

• The Chief Justice can nominate, and the President can reject appointments. What if they clash?
• In the worst-case scenario, the Chief Justice could keep nominating while the President keeps rejecting, leading to a standoff. Nomination does not automatically guarantee appointment.
• Park Jong-hyun (Professor, Hanyang University) argues that prior consultation is therefore critical. “It increases the likelihood that the Chief Justice’s formal nomination rights will lead to actual appointments, giving the judiciary both legitimacy and practical benefit,” he explains.
• Park emphasized, “To preserve the nomination system’s original intent of respecting the judiciary while maintaining democratic operation, the Chief Justice must proactively engage in prior consultations.”
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Mixed-Member Majoritarian System Revives Democracy.

• Park Sung-min (political consultant) emphasized, “A paradigm shift is needed: reform the electoral system first, then amend the constitution.”
• Park Sung-min proposed abolishing proportional representation, maintaining the total number of lawmakers at 300, and adopting a mixed-member majoritarian system where 3–4 representatives are elected per district. The plan suggests 60 four-seat districts + 20 three-seat districts, totaling 80 electoral districts.
• Park Sung-min stressed, “A presidential ‘runoff voting system’ and a ‘mixed-member majoritarian system’ for the National Assembly—where ‘coalitions by result’ are possible rather than ‘coalitions for results’—are the path to reviving dying democracy.”
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Directive and Verification Capabilities Matter.

• Directive capability is the ability to translate vague desires into concrete language—pinpointing what is desired and by what standards. Verification capability is the ability to judge whether outcomes align with intent, retrace why they went wrong, and issue revised directives.
• Ahn Jin-ho (CEO, ID Innolab) emphasized, “No matter how capable AI agents are, they remain tools that do not bear responsibility for outcomes like humans do.” “The gap in execution narrows, but the gap in selecting what to execute and judging those outcomes widens instead,” he explained.
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