The Jamsil Protest Is Not Ordinary.

• The rallies protesting the ballot shortage crisis continued throughout the weekend. Citizens have blockaded the counting station set up at the Olympic Park Handball Gymnasium.
• Analysis suggests this differs in nature from election fraud conspiracy theories. Individuals in their 20s and 30s made up about half the participants.
• Large posters reading “No political slogans except for re-election” appeared throughout the site. Many attendees distanced themselves from “Yoon Again” rhetoric.
• Lee Han-sol (Director, Korea Social Housing Association) pointed out, “The real issue is the precarious political response to citizens’ anger.” “The most urgent task for the government and ruling party,” he added, “is to minimize conflict among the public and restore trust.”
• In an editorial, The Korea Daily noted, “It is essential to first understand why young people—often dismissed as apathetic toward real politics—have become so enraged.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Ballot Shortages Began at 4 PM.

• Reports of potential ballot shortages emerged as early as 2 PM on the 3rd, with voting suspensions multiplying from 4 PM onward.
• The National Election Commission only issued a notice at 5:45 PM stating, “Ballots are being transported” and urging, “We hope there will be no misunderstanding that voting cannot proceed due to ballot shortages.”
• Ballots arrived after 8 PM. The number of polling stations forced to suspend voting rose from 14 to 50.

Re-election Is Not an Option.

• “Only when it is acknowledged that the election results were affected” can an election be invalidated. The standard is whether ballot shortages caused errors significant enough to alter the outcome. The National Election Commission has stated, “This does not meet the criteria for a re-election.”
• Lee Jae-myung (President) strongly criticized, “Independent institutions that have lost public trust have no reason to exist.” The Democratic Party has taken the position that if necessary, they will not only introduce a special prosecutor but also completely revise the Election Commission Act and even consider constitutional amendments.
• Kim Min-seok (Prime Minister) held a meeting with university student council representatives, calling it “a challenge to the fundamentals of democracy” and stating, “This is a matter requiring the resignation of all senior officials at the Election Commission.”
• No Tae-ak (National Election Commission Chair) and Heo Cheol-hoon (Commission Secretary-General) have resigned.
• Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party Leader) argued, “Re-election is no longer avoidable.” Lee Jun-seok (Reform Party Leader) pointed out, “Ultimately, this is equivalent to asking Oh Se-hoon (Seoul Mayor) to step down.”
• There are also criticisms that Jang Dong-hyeok may have brought up the re-election card to avoid pressure to resign.

What Matters Now.

Broadcom Shock, Nasdaq Plunges 4.2%.

• AI bubble debates have entered a new phase.
• There were doubts about whether sales could justify such massive investments, but faith emerged after Claude’s success. Now, anxiety is spreading again: is the investment scale too large?
• Broadcom’s stock plummeted despite a 143% sales surge, simply because it avoided aggressive forecasts—a sign the market lacks conviction.
• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index tumbled 10.3%. Intel and Nvidia fell 11% and 6%, respectively.
• Nicholas Forrest (Candriam CIO) analyzed, “Everyone senses it but no one mentions it: if AI performance raises doubts or disappoints, maintaining optimism will be difficult.”
• Related Link.

Largest-Ever Corporate Listings.

• Not one, but three. Stock offerings for big tech firms like Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX are imminent—and the key question is how high their valuations will soar.
• SpaceX targets a $1.78 trillion valuation. Anthropic and OpenAI aim for $965 billion and $852 billion, respectively.
• Rana Foroohar (Financial Times columnist) analyzed, “We may be at the start of a new supercycle.”
• AI, energy, and defense spending is projected to grow from $7 trillion last year to $10 trillion by year-end and $16 trillion by 2030.
• U.S. financial assets now equal 6.5 times GDP. American households hold $68 trillion in stocks—37% of total assets—with $8 trillion parked in money market funds. The ammunition remains plentiful, as they say.
• Related Link.

“U.S. Government Acquiring AI Stakes? Very Good.”.

• Bernie Sanders (U.S. Senator) floated the idea, and Donald Trump (U.S. President) picked it up.
• Trump has also said, “There is not a big difference between us on economic issues.”
• Sanders previously proposed a radical plan: a one-time 50% equity tax on Big Tech companies.
• Sam Altman (OpenAI CEO)’s “Public Wealth Fund” concept is similar. Altman met with Trump to propose transferring $200 billion in company shares to the U.S. government—not as direct state ownership, but as individual stock holdings for citizens.
• The Financial Times analyzed, “MAGA populists are backing this idea.”
• The U.S. already secured a 10% stake in Intel last year with a $9 billion investment.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

100 Days of War in Iran.

• Hormuz Strait has become Iran’s new deterrent.
• Iran’s naval blockade was impactful enough to drag global GDP growth from 3.4% to 2.8%.
• The U.S. and Iran continue to engage in hostilities.
• According to the Financial Times, after Israel’s airstrike on Lebanon Sunday evening, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel—the first attack since the April ceasefire took effect. All missiles were intercepted.
• Related Link.

“The Barking Dog Doesn’t Bite.”.

• This is the title of a 2017 paper by Andreas Krieg (King’s College London professor).
• The Ministry of Defense constructed policy through operations rather than executing operations through policy.
• The State Department responded to crises after the fact instead of preemptively preparing for risks.
• The White House undermined both agencies’ efforts with baseless populist messaging.
• A nine-year-old forecast has become an eerie reality.
• Related Link.

Han Seong-sook Poised to Be Next Prime Minister.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) nominated Han Seong-sook (Minister of SMEs and Startups) as prime minister candidate.
• A former Naver CEO with no legislative experience.
• If confirmed by the National Assembly, she will become the second female prime minister in 20 years, following Han Myeong-sook (former Prime Minister).
• Kang Hoon-sik (Chief of Staff to the President) introduced her as “the right person to seamlessly execute the AI transformation and lead growth for all.”
• She has undergone one confirmation hearing, but multiple home ownership remains an issue—only one of four properties has been sold. Allegations of backdoor inheritance also persist.
• Related Link.

Deep Dive.

Xi Jinping Heads to North Korea Today.

• After last month’s U.S.-China summit, Trump said, “We confirmed the shared goal of North Korea’s denuclearization,” but Beijing made no mention of it.
• Yesterday, Kim Yo-jong (North Korean Party Secretary) emphasized, “The status of a nuclear-armed state is an absolute red line,” a move widely seen as preemptive pressure on Xi. Kim Jong-un’s (North Korean State Affairs Commissioner) public inspection of uranium enrichment facilities can be interpreted in the same context.
• Kim Yong-hyun (Dongguk University professor) analyzed, “China is in an awkward position—neither ignoring UN sanctions nor fully accepting North Korea’s stance,” adding, “It’s likely to use expressions of significant, if not full, agreement.”
• In an editorial, Kyunghyang Shinmun stressed, “Diplomatic efforts must be made to ensure that through close communication with China, it plays a constructive role in Korean Peninsula issues.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

NVIDIA’s Testbed Is South Korea.

• Jensen Huang (NVIDIA CEO) brought four “gifts”: the Vera Rubin, Vera, RTX Spark, and Jetson Thor. The Vera Rubin is an AI chip, and the Vera is the CPU that powers the Vera Rubin. RTX Spark is NVIDIA’s AI laptop, and Jetson Thor is a computer for robots.
• Though called gifts, they are ultimately NVIDIA products, with Korean companies as partners. The Vera Rubin will use memory chips from Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
• A decision was made to establish an AI research center in South Korea. They are currently hiring staff to handle digital twins and robotics.

Jensen Huang’s 3 Nights, 4 Days.

• He met League of Legends star Lee Sang-hyeok (Player) immediately after arriving on the 5th, then had a trilateral meeting with Koo Kwang-mo (LG Chairman), Lee Hae-jin (Naver Chairman), and Choi Tae-won (SK Chairman) at “Hyungnim Jeoyo” near Hongdae that evening.
• On the 6th, he appeared on tvN’s “You Quiz.” That evening, he visited Chebudo Tososokchon Samgyetang with his family.
• Yesterday, he met Chung Eui-sun (Hyundai Motor Chairman) at Uraek in the afternoon, then met with Chang Byung-gyu (Krafton Chairman) and Kim Tae-jin (NC CEO) at a Gangnam PC café. He met again with Choi Tae-won at Kkanbuchikin that evening.
• Today, he will visit Hyundai Motor and Naver before meeting Bae Hyun-joo (Minister of Science and ICT).
• Concerns are growing that South Korea may become overly dependent on NVIDIA’s ecosystem.

Will the Exchange Rate Rise Further?

• It surged to 1,561 won in overnight trading. The cash-buying rate even spiked to 1,564 won.
• It could rise more. Foreign investors continue selling stocks, and interest rate hikes remain possible. There are many factors that could push the exchange rate higher—a self-fulfilling movement reflecting market expectations.
• Moon Da-un (Korea Investment & Securities analyst) explained, “1,480 won right after the emergency martial law now looks comfortable, even low,” adding, “1,560 won might be a comfortable level in 2–3 years.”
• Shin Se-don (Sookmyung Women’s University professor) pointed out, “The exchange rate isn’t falling despite a large current account surplus because the market believes low interest rates will persist,” urging, “The Bank of Korea must send a strong rate-hike signal.”

111 Trillion Won Flows into Stock Market.

• 75 trillion won flowed in during the COVID-19 pandemic’s “Donghak Ant” retail investment boom. This year’s scale is even larger.
• Foreign investors have net-sold 11.3 trillion won worth of stocks this year alone. The implication: individual investors absorbed that outflow.
• Kim Hak-gyun (ShinYoung Securities Research Center Head) analyzed, “Once money enters, it stays at least a year,” adding, “These are people who never invested before deciding to do so—so the trend persists for a while.”
• Kim advised, “It’s better to act with a delay.” For example, set a rule to start selling only after a 20% drop from peak levels.
• “A good market is one where passive investors who bet on indices—not individual stocks—make money,” he emphasized. “As bad companies are replaced by good ones, the index becomes a record of winners. The foundation is systematic index investing.”
• Related Link.

Another Take.

Kim Min-seok: “The Next Mission Is Building a Stronger Democratic Party.”.

• He has officially declared his bid for party leadership. Kim Min-seok (Prime Minister) said, “Unity between the party and government, and a pragmatic expansionist line, is the path to success and continuity.”
• Speculation swirls that Kim Min-seok and Song Young-gil (Democratic Party lawmaker) will form a united front or divide roles strategically.

South Korea’s Potential Growth Rate to Fall to 1.5% by 2027.

• OECD analysis. It projects a decline from 1.85% last year to 1.66% this year, then 1.52% next year.
• Ju Won (Hyundai Economic Research Institute Research Division Head) emphasized, “We must focus on securing new growth engines in preparation for the post-semiconductor boom.”
• Calls also emerge to urgently address labor market duality, respond to population decline, and push for structural reforms like regulatory rationalization.
• Related Link.

Gwanbong-gwon Scandal: A Circuitous Path to No Charges.

• Prosecutors ultimately concluded the case, referred by the special investigation team, with no charges. The explanation: the special team had already drawn a line, stating, “No evidence was found that instructions to destroy evidence were given,” leaving little room for alternative conclusions.
• There were allegations that prosecutors intentionally destroyed Gwanbong-gwon ribbons seized from Jeon Seong-bae’s (Korean Bar Association) home. The Supreme Prosecutors’ Office ruled it an administrative error, and the special team passed the case back to the prosecution.

AI Adoption: Productivity Stagnant Despite Time Savings.

• Bank of Korea analysis. Three years after ChatGPT’s release, AI adoption reduced work hours by an average of 3.8%—about 1 hour and 30 minutes per week.
• Yet the central bank’s survey found no significant productivity gains. The explanation: much of the time saved is diverted to non-productive activities like self-improvement or rest.
• Related Link.

The Fix.

No Need to Learn Driving in Elementary School.

• There is much to learn before that. Choi Pil-su (Sejong University Professor) pointed out, “The issue isn’t that students don’t know how to use AI, but that AI has made them unaware of what they don’t know.”
• “The problem is that foundational experiences needed to form beliefs are disappearing because of AI,” the argument goes.
• The solution? Training should focus not on using AI, but on not using it. Primary knowledge is key. Reading, travel, and study remain essential. Kim Pil-su emphasized, “We must preserve the proportion of subjects that do not use AI.”
• Related Link.

ICYMI.

Samsung Electronics to Pay 20% of Purchases in Local Gift Certificates.

• Event runs for four weeks starting today. Military personnel, police, and firefighters receive an additional 10%, totaling 30%.
• The estimated total value of Onnuri gift certificates to be distributed is 400 billion won.
• This follows a pledge to contribute 5 trillion won to society over five years.
• Related Link.

Americans Are Keeping Cars Longer.

• Average vehicle age has risen to 13 years. That means fewer new cars are selling.
• Automakers are expanding used car sales and aftermarket parts markets. “A sale in the sales department means ten sales in after-service,” goes the saying.
• Competition between dealership shops and independent repair shops has intensified. Repair and maintenance now account for half of dealership revenue.
• Related Link.

Jeong Joon-hee’s “Time to Raise the Club” Remark Sparks Controversy.

• Jeong Joon-hee (Hanyang University Professor) claimed on Mae-bul Show, “The 2030 generation cannot be persuaded rationally—they must be subdued by power.”
• “It is essential to legally raise the club,” he argued.
• Choi Wook (Mae-bul Show host) added, “As Ilbe emerges into the mainstream, these people idolize Chun Doo-hwan,” and insisted, “They should be crushed by tanks online.”
• Related Link.

Worth Reading.

Fraudulent Elections and Poorly Managed Elections Are Not the Same.

• Shortages of ballots can be described as a poorly managed election.
• Ryu Young-jae (Judge, Namyangju Branch of Uijeongbu District Court) noted, “If we conflate poorly managed elections with fraudulent elections and seek measures to prevent fraud, we may instead erode societal trust in the electoral system and regress the level of guaranteed voting rights for citizens.”
• Ryu Young-jae emphasized, “This should expand into a broader effort to transform the weak structure of citizens’ voting rights.”
• Related Link.

Is a Comeback Possible?

• Seong Han-yong (Senior Reporter, The Hankyoreh) analyzed, “If the era of division and hatred continues, an integrationist like Kim Boo-kyum (former Prime Minister) could suddenly be recalled.”
• Kim Dae-jung (former President) and Roh Moo-hyun (former President) also overcame bitter defeats.
• Jeong Won-o (former Seongdong District Mayor) and Kim Kyung-soo (former Gyeongnam Governor) may not be finished here. Both have a high chance of winning if they run in the National Assembly elections two years later. Both are still under 60, and their reputations as “workhorses” do not evaporate easily.
• Related Link.

Lee Jae-myung’s Two Paths.

• One path is to take the election results as bitter medicine and follow public sentiment.
• The other is to push through his agenda before approval ratings fall further.
• The Yoon Suk-yeol effect is over, and while Jang Dong-hyeok’s influence helped this time, it’s now exhausted.
• Yoon Tae-gon (political columnist) stressed, “The president must clarify which path to take.”
• Coincidentally, today marks Lee Jae-myung (President)’s first-year inauguration press conference.
• Related Link.

The Opposition’s Good Fortune Has Ended.

• Lee Hyun-sang (JoongAng Ilbo columnist) pointed out, “If the Cho Kuk scandal was the biggest risk that shook the Moon Jae-in administration, the biggest risk for the current government is the reckless reversal of the president’s judicial issues.”
• Lee Hyun-sang advised looking back to 2018. The Moon Jae-in administration won landslide victories in the local elections in its first year and the general elections in its third year, but failed to secure a second term.
• “The criticism is scathing: even if the prosecution’s case is dismissed, if it leads to losing power, the dismissal itself is likely to be reversed.”
• Lee Se-young (Hankyoreh columnist) wrote a column in a similar vein.
• “A presidential case suspended during a term is less a puzzle knot that can be cleanly severed and more like a Damocles’ sword dangling over the throne, tied by a single horsehair. If one rashly tries to eliminate its existence to escape anxiety, the sword’s tip will begin a free fall straight toward the ruler’s crown.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.