Iran’s Time War.

• The U.S. and Israel aim to neutralize Iran.
• Iran is expanding fronts and inflating damage to buy time—a cost-effective war of attrition.
• Iran’s Defense Ministry stated, “We have the capability to defend offensively far longer than the war plans declared by our enemies.”
• Since the war began, Iran has launched over 1,000 unmanned aerial vehicles. To intercept a $20,000 Shahed-136 requires firing a $4 million missile. If U.S. air defense missiles are depleted, analysts suggest Iran will strike Israel with reserved hypersonic missiles for lethal damage.
• One analysis estimates the U.S. spent $800 million in a single day on the 28th.

Has Iran Been Underestimated?

• Assessments also suggest the U.S. underestimated Iran.
• Bilal Nasr (Johns Hopkins University professor) noted, “The White House and Israel are belatedly realizing Iran has far greater tolerance for enduring pain.”
• “They haven’t even touched their real weapons” is another emerging narrative. Iran has been preparing for a protracted war since June last year, following the conflict with Israel.
• There is also a possibility that the UAE and Saudi Arabia could join the conflict.

The Staggering Cost of Epic Fury.

• ‘Epic Fury’ was the operational name for Iran’s attack.
• Fortune analyzed that the cost the U.S. must bear could reach up to $210 billion.
• $65 billion for equipment and ammunition, $115 billion in macroeconomic losses.
• Operating two aircraft carrier strike groups costs $18 million per day.
• Over four days, they spent more than $5 billion.
• Related Link.

What Matters Now.

KOSPI Plunges 12.1%.

• KOSDAQ also fell 14.0%.
• South Korea’s decline was especially severe. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 3.6%, and Taiwan’s Taiex fell 4.4%.
• The drop exceeded the historic plunge that followed the 9/11 attacks.

New York Stock Market Rebounds.

• Dow Jones rose 0.5%, S&P 500 gained 0.8%, and Nasdaq climbed 1.4%.
• Tech stocks led the rebound. Micron Technology and AMD surged 5.6% and 5.8%, respectively, while Nvidia rose 1.7%. Tesla and Amazon also gained 3.4% and 3.9%, respectively.
• South Korea’s market today is likely to escape the worst scenario.

Tanker Freight Rates Surge 330%.

• Oil prices rose 4.7%. Brent crude climbed 16% over five days.
• Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped 80%—from 138 ships daily to just 28.
• Freight rates rose faster than oil prices. Charter fees spiked to $400,000 per day. Terms like “war premium” are emerging.
• Concerns are growing that rising oil prices could reignite inflation and monetary tightening.
• Park Sang-hyun (IM Securities analyst) warned, “If Iran isn’t neutralized within a week, the conflict could drag on.” Kim Hak-kyun (Shinyoung Securities research center head) noted, “2022 saw accelerating inflation, but the situation has stabilized since.”

Tanker Escorts? Hardly Feasible.

• Donald Trump (U.S. President) just threw out the idea.
• First, even with U.S. warships, attacks cannot be stopped. Submerged mines, missiles from cliffs, and swarm drone attacks leave them defenseless.
• Second, insurance can be provided, but missiles cannot be blocked. The issue is not insurance—it’s safety.
• Though the narrowest width is 33 km, shallow waters mean the actual navigable area for tankers is only about 3 km wide.

No Ground Troops? Kurdish Mercenaries?

• The Kurds are an anti-regime force in Iran.
• Observers suggest the U.S. aims to avoid ground troop deployment by arming Kurdish militias to incite an uprising.
• Trump cannot ignore the November midterm elections, at least for now.

“No Country Can Act Unilaterally.”.

• Words from China’s most significant political event, the Two Sessions (National People’s Congress and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference).
• Though indirect, it was a warning aimed at the U.S.
• Last year, China achieved its 5% growth target.

South Korea’s Oil Reserves Cover 208 Days.

• Oil reserves are substantial, and LNG dependency on the Middle East is only 20%.
• Demand will decrease starting March, so the immediate shock won’t be severe.

186 South Koreans Stranded Inside the Strait of Hormuz.

• Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has left many ships trapped in the Persian Gulf.
• 26 South Korean-flagged vessels are stuck, carrying 144 South Koreans and 597 total crew.
• An additional 42 South Korean sailors are onboard foreign ships.

Alliances Cracked by Tariffs, Divided by War.

• Spain has notified the U.S. not to use its naval base in Cádiz and the U.S. Air Force base in Seville. Trump pressured, “No free-riding under the security umbrella,” threatening to “cut all trade deals.”
• Britain belatedly agreed to allow the use of its air bases.
• France called the airstrikes on Iran “a violation of international law” but still decided to support air defense systems.
• Kim Jae-cheon (Sogang University professor) noted, “This could happen to Asian allies too,” urging, “New standards and roles for alliances must be discussed.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Deep Dive.

Kim Yong-beom and Wi Sung-lak Will Stay.

• There was speculation that Kang Hoon-sik (Chief of Staff to the President) might run for the Daejeon-Chungnam integrated mayoral election, but he is likely to miss the March 5 resignation deadline.
• Kim Yong-beom (Chief of Staff for Policy) and Wi Sung-lak (National Security Director) will also not run in the local elections.
• The Democratic Party has decided to nominate Park Chan-dae (former floor leader) as its sole candidate for Incheon mayor.
• A proposal to draft Kim Boo-kyum (former prime minister) as a Daegu mayoral candidate is also under discussion. The judgment is that it’s worth a try.

Is Khamenei’s Son the Next Supreme Leader?

• Speculation grows that Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of Ayatollah Khamenei (former Iranian Supreme Leader) killed in the airstrike, is the likely successor.
• If a Mojtaba regime emerges, Iran is likely to return to a hardline anti-American stance.
• The moment he is confirmed as the next leader, he becomes a target for elimination.
• Related Link.

No Evidence Found of Intentional Loss of Sealed Cash Band.

• The special prosecutor’s investigation deadline ends today.
• Prosecutors found no evidence that the sealed cash band was intentionally lost. They claim it was a simple error by a staff member.
• The disputed sealed cash band refers to the 50 million won bundle found at Jeon Seong-bae’s (Geonjin Beopsa) residence. The Democratic Party suspects the money may have originated from the Presidential Office or the National Intelligence Service’s special activity funds—but the missing sealed band has left the origin unconfirmed.

Another Take.

‘New Lee Jae-myung’? There Were Also ‘New Moon Jae-in’ and ‘New Yoon Suk-yeol’.

• It’s not a new phenomenon. The ‘New Moon Jae-in’ wave was even larger in scale.
• Jeong Han-ul (Korean People’s Research Institute director) argues that the ‘New Lee Jae-myung’ phenomenon differs in three ways.
• First, integrative pragmatic politics is broadening the base of support.
• Second, the perceived effectiveness of pragmatic politics is the driving force.
• Third, Lee Jae-myung (president) is embracing both ‘New Lee Jae-myung’ and ‘Old Lee Jae-myung’.
• The ‘pro-Moon anti-Democratic’ faction has stagnated, while the ‘pro-Moon pro-Democratic’ faction—which supports Lee Jae-myung while backing the Democratic Party—is surging.
• Analysis suggests presidential support is translating into ruling party support.
• Jeong Han-ul forecasted, “If the momentum behind the ‘New Lee Jae-myung’ phenomenon is sustained, it’s not impossible to achieve the 20-year ruling possibility that briefly emerged during the Moon Jae-in administration.”
• Related Link.

Women Sources in Korean Media Reports: 27%.

• The findings come from the Journalists’ Union Gender Equality Committee survey. Political coverage featured 18% women sources, economic coverage 16%.
• Kim Soo-ah (Seoul National University professor) noted, “Without deliberate effort to identify and include them, there’s a habitual tendency to prioritize male sources.”

LVMH Reform Not Illegal.

• LVMH sued a luxury repair shop, but the court ruled it did not infringe on trademark rights.
• The first trial was lost, but the second trial was overturned when Park Kyung-shin (Korea University professor) and Kim Chul-sik (Bom Law Firm attorney) joined.
• LTMH (LVMH’s manufacturer) claimed, “Repair services for profit constitute trademark infringement,” but the court concluded, “Personal-use reform is part of realizing an individual’s purpose of use.”
• Open Net emphasized, “This ruling is not just a victory for a single repair business,” adding, “It is a significant judicial affirmation of consumers’ right to freely use and modify their property—the so-called ‘right to reform and use longer.’”
• Related Link.

The Fix.

“Subscribe, Not Necessarily to Us.”.

• Arthur Gregg Sulzberger (New York Times chairman) said this in a podcast ad: “I hope you’ll subscribe to a genuine news institution that does fact-based reporting.”
• It’s an ad that expresses concern about the collapse of the journalism ecosystem while showcasing the New York Times’ confidence.
• “If you support the New York Times, that money will send reporters into the field to uncover facts and context that AI cannot grasp,” he emphasized.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

ICYMI.

Striking from 50km Away: Cheongung II Hits Home at Jamsil Stadium.

• This refers to the domestically developed interceptor missile, Cheongung II. Observers note it played a critical role in blocking Iranian attacks while deployed in the UAE.
• Unlike the Patriot missile, which has a longer maximum range but fixed direction, Cheongung II can respond 360 degrees and is cheaper at around 96 billion won. The Patriot costs 800 billion won.
• Related Link.

Buffet Boom: Value for Money.

• Ashley Queens’ sales grew from 160 billion won in 2022 to 500 billion won last year. It expanded from 59 to 115 locations.
• Makinochaya grew from 4.6 billion won in 2021 to 48 billion won last year. At 72,000 won per adult weekday, it’s pricey but widely regarded as a value-for-money dining spot.
• Vips also saw a 22% increase in membership. Its locations grew from 25 in 2022 to 35.

Worth Reading.

From a World of ‘Diligence and Repetition’ to One of ‘Probability and Anxiety.’.

• There was a time when wages served not just as a means of subsistence but as an indicator for designing the future. Housing, education, and retirement were planned based on recurring wages.
• But with the disappearance of lifelong employment and falling interest rates, the situation changed. Wages failed to keep pace with rising asset prices. Han Sung-hee (Seoul National University professor) pointed out, “Capital income has taken their place.”
• “In a world where roller-coaster-like volatility has become routine, the questions we must ask are not merely about investment strategies. Rather, they concern how to live in a world of probability and how to secure social and institutional stability.”

A Cycle Where Monsters Breed Monsters Must Be Broken.

• “Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party leader) deceived the public, rejected political norms, and willfully ignored the risk of collapse.”
• Jang Dong-hyeok handed the People Power Party over to extremist forces. Kim Kwang-ho (Kyunghyang Shinmun columnist) stressed, “Jang Dong-hyeok’s anti-intellectualism must no longer be tolerated.”
• Related Link.