Houthi Entry into the Conflict.

• The Houthi rebels, Yemen’s armed group, have joined the US-Iran war.
• Concerns grow that the Red Sea route to the Suez Canal will be blocked. A detour via Africa would add 9,000 km and 10–15 days to voyages. Logistics costs would rise by 20%.
• If the Houthis escalate, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are likely to intervene. Both nations view the Houthis as a direct threat.
• Related Link.

This Is Not a Show of Strength, but a Hit-and-Run.

• Donald Trump (US President) said on the 21st that he would show hell in 48 hours.
• Two days later, on the 23rd, he gave an additional five days.
• Four days later, on the 26th, he postponed it by 10 days.
• The day he said would take 4–6 weeks is approaching.
• Trump named the operation against Iran “Epic Fury.” The New Yorker assessed, “This is not hegemony, but a hit-and-run.”
• The phrase “fire first, then find the target” has emerged. The Economist evaluated, “No achievements have been made for a month.”
• There is criticism that “this is a crisis Trump meticulously designed to block his own political path.”
• 3,500 US Navy and Marine personnel have arrived midway. Speculation suggests a ground war is imminent, but assessments dominate that success is unlikely.
• Choi Hee-jin (Kyunghyang Shinmun International Affairs Editor) pointed out, “Trump may have intended to express ‘epic fury’ and return home, but after raging without a plan, consequences inevitably follow.”
• Related Link.
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Who Drops Missiles Faster?

• The US spent over 10,000 rounds of ammunition in 16 days—worth 39 trillion won.
• It fired 200 of its 600 THAAD missiles and over 400 Patriot missiles. Replenishing these stocks would take 3–8 years for THAAD and 1–2 years for Patriots.
• Though the US has over 2,000 Tomahawk missiles remaining, they are not deployable. Each costs $3.6 million, with a 2-year production cycle from order to delivery.
• Iran is estimated to have used about half its missile stockpile, firing 1,641 rounds and still retaining a similar number.
• Ali Jahangshahi (Iranian Army Commander) warned, “They will pay a far greater price from which they cannot recover.” Iran claims to have mobilized a 1-million-strong force.
• Min Kyung-hoon (Professor, National Diplomatic Academy) analyzed, “Both the US and Iran have the will to reach a negotiated settlement.”

Why the US and Israel Cannot Defeat Iran and the Houthis.

• Yemen’s Houthis are in a strategic alliance with Iran. Though often called rebels, they are a state-like force controlling the capital, Sana’a.
• If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthis seize the Bab al-Mandeb, 50% of Suez Canal trade would be halted.
• The Houthis’ delayed entry after the US attacked Iran may have been a calculated wait for the right timing.
• The US cannot simultaneously attack Iran and the Houthis. With the Houthis involved, extricating forces becomes more complex. Saudi Arabia and the UAE (United Arab Emirates) also hold differing positions. The Houthis are now eyeing separatist independence.
• Moon Byung-jun (former Dubai Consul General) noted, “A scenario of eliminating the Houthis is less realistic than one of managing or binding them through negotiation.”
• Related Link.

What Matters Now.

The Worst Supply Chain Crisis in History.

• It has already surpassed the scale of the Russia-Ukraine war.
• Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) have surged 49% and 41%, respectively.
• The immediate need to import Russian naphtha is being opposed by the European Union.
• Analysis suggests Qatar’s LNG facilities will take three years to repair.
• Kenneth Rogoff (Harvard Professor) called it “the biggest stagflation shock in 50 years.”
• Beyond oil, helium shortages are critical—Qatar is the sole viable source for the helium required in semiconductor processes.
• Sulfur, a key component in electric vehicle batteries, is also in short supply.
• Hospitals worry about IV bag shortages—naphtha is the raw material, and stockpiles are low. South Korea relies on imports for 50% of its IV bag demand, 60% of which comes from the Middle East.
• In rural areas, farmers say they can’t plant crops without plastic mulch. Prices for agricultural mulch film have risen 40%, and hoarding is increasing.
• If oil prices hit $120, the government plans to expand the five-day driving restriction to private vehicles.

Trump’s 15-Minute “Attack Delay,” Insider Whale Bets.

• Someone wagered hundreds of millions on crude oil futures and S&P futures—betting on a drop and a rise, respectively. Estimates suggest tens of millions were made. It was a reckless bet only an insider could have pulled off.
• Paul Krugman (New York City University Professor) condemned it as “treason, leveraging national security decisions for profit.”

The Limits of Diplomatic Amateurs: In-Law and Friend Diplomacy.

• It’s a situation where the president is juggling in-laws and friends. Trump’s envoys for nuclear talks with Iran are Steve Biegun (friend) and Jared Kushner (son-in-law)—both holding no official titles.
• These two negotiated with Iran in the morning and with Russia-Ukraine in the afternoon.
• Meanwhile, Antony Blinken (US Secretary of State) has been sidelined.
• Observers suggest this stems from Trump’s distrust of professional diplomats. Of 195 ambassadorial posts abroad, 102 have remained vacant for over a year.
• Related Link.

‘No Kings’ Protests Reach Historic Scale.

• 8 million people participated. Calls to condemn the Trump administration’s total failure—reckless war, soaring prices, and hardline immigration policies—are growing louder.
• More than the 7 million who joined last October.

Deep Dive.

Jang Dong-hyeok’s Dilemma: People Power Party Support Plummets to 19%.

• It’s the lowest support rate since Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment, according to Gallup Korea. It’s less than half of the Democratic Party’s. Some are already saying the election is a lost cause.
• Lee Jae-myung (President) holds a 65% approval rating, while the Democratic Party records 46%.
• Oh Se-hoon (Seoul Mayor) said, “I want to wear a red jacket.” These days, People Power Party candidates wear white jackets. When reporters asked, “Will you accept campaign support from Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party Leader)?” he replied, “Come in a transformed form.”
• Bae Hyun-jin (People Power Party Seoul Committee Chair) also stated, “We will block Jang Dong-hyeok from visiting any district in Seoul.”
• Jang Dong-hyeok shows no signs of stepping down. “We issued a resolution to sever ties with Yoon, yet support dropped,” he reportedly said. “The Democratic Party sticks together, but why can’t our party?”
• Under Jang’s leadership, party membership increased by over 300,000. There’s an atmosphere where he can’t be easily ousted.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

South Korea’s Growth Forecast Cut from 2.1% to 1.7%.

• It’s from the OECD report. A 0.5 percentage point drop—the second-largest decline after the UK.
• South Korea is particularly vulnerable due to its high external and Middle East dependencies.
• The Bank of Korea and KDI are also likely to revise their forecasts.

“Lee Jae-myung Needs to Confess to Being the Mastermind.”.

• Transcripts from Park Sang-yong (Seoul Central District Prosecutors’ Office prosecutor), who investigated the Ssangbangul North Korea remittance case, have been made public.
• In a call with Lee Hwa-young (former Gyeonggi Province vice governor), he said, “There needs to be a confession where Lee Jae-myung becomes the clear mastermind and Lee Hwa-young the accomplice.”
• The Democratic Party claims prosecutors coerced Lee Hwa-young into false testimony. Kim Dong-ah (Democratic Party lawmaker) noted, “This is clear instigation of perjury and abuse of authority.”
• Park Sang-yong countered, “It was the defense lawyer who proposed a plea bargain, which I rejected.”
• Related Link.

Fixed Mortgage Rates Hit 7%.

• Housing loan rates rose from 3.93–6.23% at the end of last year to 4.41–7.01% as of the 27th.
• The upper rate exceeding 7% is the first time since October 2022.

Another Take.

“Admit It: Conservatives Have Suffered a Crushing Defeat.”.

• JoongAng Ilbo interviewed Lee Myung-bak (former president).
• He lamented, “Conservatives are doing something hopeless,” but offered nothing particularly new.
• He pointed out, “The problem is that people unfit for politics are doing something in the opposition party.”
• Related Link.

Jevons’ Paradox.

• It’s the theory that improved efficiency increases consumption. Does this apply to memory?
• Google’s TurboQuant technology, which compresses data to use only 1/6 of memory, sent shockwaves through the stock market.
• Kim Jeong-ho (KAIST professor) said, “The market was volatile when DeepSeek emerged last year, but it’s rarely mentioned now,” adding, “Whether TurboQuant will fundamentally reshape the landscape remains to be seen.”
• Han Jin-ho (ETRI director) predicted, “Rather than reduced memory demand, the trend is likely to shift toward increased large-scale computations based on high-performance computing.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Why Iran Earns $140 Million Daily by Controlling the Strait of Hormuz.

• Because Iran is the only country that can safely pass through Hormuz. Over the past month, at least 13 Iranian tankers have passed through. Approximately 24 million barrels in scale, with over 90% likely destined for China.
• With rising oil prices, analysis suggests Iran has reaped enormous profits. Though sold below international prices, the scale still reaches $140 million.
• The U.S. is aware. Janet Yellen (U.S. Treasury Secretary) stated, “We hope for smooth global supply,” adding, “We will not raise objections for the time being.”
• Related Link.

Iran’s Resistance Economy.

• A Financial Times reporter found Tehran’s supermarkets stocked with fresh produce. Iran produces 80% of its own food.
• Prospects suggest it won’t collapse easily, having built resilience and self-reliance under U.S. and European sanctions. Steel exports alone reached $7 billion last year. Chemical and food exports are also significant.
• Analysis concludes that while the war will bring immense suffering, the economy itself won’t be the breaking point.
• Related Link.

The Fix.

Acupuncture Hospital “Nailong” Patients Quintupled?

• Medical costs incurred by auto insurance policyholders at acupuncture hospitals reached 1.6972 trillion won. In 2015, this figure was 357.6 billion won.
• During the same period, general hospital medical costs decreased from 1.1981 trillion won to 1.1142 trillion won.
• Last year, acupuncture hospitals accounted for over 60% of traffic accident treatment costs.
• According to the Korea Economic Daily, excessive treatment of minor injury patients is severe. The acupuncture treatment costs for minor injury patients at four property insurers totaled 1.0961 trillion won—over four times the 261.6 billion won for Western medicine.
• Bundled claims are also cited as a factor in insurance payout leakage. Sixty-four percent of medical costs from four insurers involved set claims—prescribing acupuncture, cupping, herbal medicine, and chiropractic therapy simultaneously to contusion patients.
• Jeon Yong-sik (Insurance Research Institute researcher) stated, “Rules like the 8-week limit must be introduced to prevent next year’s insurance premium hikes,” adding, “The government urgently needs to address excessive treatment practices.”
• Related Link.

ICYMI.

Is a 50,000-Seat Arena Truly Necessary?

• Last year, 23,608 performances were held in South Korea, generating 1.7326 trillion won in ticket sales. Of this, 981.7 billion won came from pop music.
• Tokyo Dome in Japan holds 72,000 people. The country also has numerous dedicated venues like Saitama Super Arena and Yokohama Arena.
• South Korea’s largest dedicated venue is Incheon Inspire Arena, which seats 18,000. Large-scale events often borrow Goyang Sports Complex, which holds 43,000. Changdong Seoul Arena, set to open in the first half of next year, will accommodate 28,000.
• Kim Yoon-ji (Senior Researcher, Korea Eximbank) said, “It’s embarrassing that K-pop artists tour overseas without a single large dedicated venue in Korea.” Music critic Kim Jak-ga emphasized, “Some argue ‘they won’t use it even if it exists,’ but the reality is ‘they can’t use it because it doesn’t exist.’”
• Ko Ki-ho (Vice President, Korea Music Performance Industry Association) pointed out, “Even if construction began today, a 50,000-seat arena would take 10 years to complete. Upgrading Jamsil and Goyang is more realistic.” Music critic Lim Jin-mo agreed, “Even a resurrected Michael Jackson would struggle to fill 50,000 seats.” He added, “It’s better to focus existing resources on expanding venues around 10,000 seats.”
• Related Link.

Weekend Baseball Draws 210,000.

• Five stadiums sold out for two consecutive days. Projections suggest this year’s attendance will surpass 13 million.
• Jamsil Stadium is scheduled for demolition next year, making this season’s opening game its last.

“Getting Drunk Isn’t Cool Anymore.”.

• Young adults in their 20s today rarely drink. 56% of respondents aged 19–29 reported drinking once a month or less, according to a survey by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency.
• As of 2024, the drinking rate among 19–29-year-olds stands at 63%—a sharp rise from 38% in 2005.
• The issue isn’t whether they drink or not, but that even if they do, they drink far less.
• In Japan, the term “shirafu (シラフ),” meaning a generation that dislikes alcohol, has become trendy. The neologism “alcohol banare (アルコ―ル離れ),” or distancing from alcohol, is also emerging.
• Koo Jeong-woo (Sungkyunkwan University Professor) described it as “a global cultural shift already mainstream abroad.”
• Related Link.

Trump Was the Toughest to Interpret.

• This is the assessment of Lee Yeon-hyang (former Director of the State Department’s Translation Bureau), who interpreted Korean at the White House for nearly 17 years.
• Obama’s sentences were like legal documents—clauses and phrases strung together.
• Trump’s thought process was fast, seemingly jumping topics, but there were connections. Helping the audience follow those links was part of the interpreter’s role.
• After graduating from Yonsei University’s music school, she lived as a homemaker, later earned a translation degree, taught at Ewha Womans University, and was recruited by the U.S. State Department.
• Related Link.

AI-Powered Journalist Writing 100 Monthly Pieces.

• Nick Lichtenberg (Fortune reporter) wrote 600 articles in six months.
• AI-generated articles account for 20% of Fortune’s web traffic.
• Typically, he inputs headlines into Perplexity or Google NotebookLM, asks for a draft, transfers it to the CMS, and edits.
• For example, he uses prompts like: “Write a 600-word news article on how Oracle addressed key risks in bond trading, referencing their press release.” If needed, he conducts phone interviews, adds or cuts sentences to finalize.
• He claims simple articles take 10 minutes. Though AI is used, the byline remains his—because he writes most of it.
• Nick knows this isn’t traditional journalism. But long-term, AI will likely become routine, like internet research. The final article and accountability still rest with the reporter, not the AI.
• How to handle hallucinations? Nick says, “It’s like a sports car—careless driving can cause accidents.” “You need to drive it like a Formula One racer.”
• Alison Shontell (Fortune editor-in-chief) remarked, “How many superstars do I wish I had—10 of these players? For me, Nick is like having 10 of them.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

The Unease of Brick-Wall Writing.

• That’s not what readers expected from a novel. A British novel called “Sunspring” was halted after it was revealed to be AI-generated.
• The writing was plausible, but every sentence and expression was uniformly homogeneous. It adhered to an average, but that very consistency bred unease. Brick buildings are beautiful, but standardized writing—like identically sized bricks—is painful to read.
• Im Hyun-seok (Dong-A Ilbo Strategic Video Team Leader) emphasized, “The key demand is transparency: if AI was significantly used, that fact must be disclosed.” “Trust is the principle. On that matter, the world hasn’t changed.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Worth Reading.

AI Made the Workload Worse.

• After tracking 200 tech company employees for eight months, those who used AI ended up working more. The analysis suggests this stems from the perception that AI agents can handle even more tasks.
• Productivity gains akin to “shrinking the distance” imply fewer jobs. Skill gaps widen with experience.
• Park Won-ik (The Miilk IP Division Head) emphasized, “Institutional safeguards against AI burnout must be established, and systems redesigned to allow those marginalized by AI technology to coexist with these agents.”
• Related Link.

Was 1994 South Korea a Lesson?

• Raphael Haifaz (Israeli Ambassador to South Korea) said, “The international community’s decision not to act at that time led to North Korea possessing 40–60 nuclear warheads.”
• The narrative is that to avoid repeating historical errors, a preemptive strike on Iran was necessary.
• The reason the U.S. and South Korea refrained from attacking North Korea 32 years ago was the expectation of inevitable massive casualties: predictions estimated 50,000 U.S. military and 490,000 South Korean military fatalities.
• Gil Yun-hyung (Hankyoreh Columnist) noted, “The U.S. and Israel’s rationale for striking Iran is too simplistic: they were certain they would suffer little damage. This is not ‘bold courage’ but ‘disgusting arrogance’—and an ‘unbearable insult’ to the serious diplomacy we pursued at great cost.”
• Related Link.

The Art of the Deal That Didn’t Work.

• Trump’s strategy was to “Think Big” to overwhelm the opponent, “Maximize Options” to maximize unpredictability, and “Use Your Leverage” to seize the opponent’s Achilles’ heel.
• Lee Hyun-sang (JoongAng Ilbo columnist) identifies four reasons why this deal-making approach failed.
• First, business and diplomacy are different. It’s not zero-sum—it must be positive-sum.
• Second, the parties to the deal are different. With the global economy in turmoil, America’s burden grows heavier.
• Third, the emotional variable was overlooked. In medieval European wars, there was an unwritten rule that kings did not kill kings—to keep a negotiating partner alive. Iran is not in a position to back down easily now.
• Fourth, it struck a nerve with MAGA’s grievances. The phrase “this is not what we voted for” is already surfacing.
• Related Link.

The Power of Salty Water and the Power of Fresh Water.

• When Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party Leader) drew a line in the sand by saying, “I will seek reaffirmation from party members,” calls for him to step down receded. They know the power of “salty water.”
• Kim Seung-ryeon (Dong-A Ilbo Editorial Director) assessed, “Out of 44 million voters, just over 2%—1 million people—have accelerated the regression of the orthodox conservative party.”
• In this atmosphere, Jang Dong-hyeok could survive even after local election defeats.
• Kim Seung-ryeon pointed out, “A party leader who can execute reforms can only emerge if the composition of responsible party members changes.” If the ratio of salty to fresh water among the People Power Party’s 1 million responsible members is 6 to 4, over 200,000 additional fresh-water responsible members would be needed to overturn the balance.
• Dilute salty water with fresh? Is it possible?
• Related Link.