Slow Letter July 23, 2025.

Post-Fire Logging Triggers Landslides.

• Hong Seok-hwan (Professor at Pusan National University) stated, “Heavy rain is the main cause, but logging and temporary forest roads are also factors.” Landslide risk begins five years after logging, when roots decay, and peaks between 10 to 15 years. The risk persists for up to 20 years.
• Cha Kyu-geun (Member of the National Innovation Party) argued, “The investigation of landslides should be handled by the Prime Minister’s Office, not the Korea Forest Service.” The implication is clear: can the Korea Forest Service properly investigate its own actions?
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We Must Increase Drainage Capacity.

• Extreme downpours may occur more frequently and on a larger scale.
• Chae Jin (Professor at Mokwon University) stated, “With rainfall exceeding 100mm per hour, it’s difficult to manage with existing river designs and urban planning standards,” adding, “We need to secure spare capacity to the point it seems excessive.”
• Kim Young-oh (Professor at Seoul National University) emphasized, “We must utilize all spaces where rainwater can flow,” and stressed the need for integrated design of all possible areas, including playgrounds and school idle lands.
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What Matters Now.

Lee Jae-myung Stands by Kang Sun-woo.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) requested the submission of the hearing report by the 24th.
• Moon Jin-seok (Democratic Party Deputy Floor Leader) stirred controversy by claiming, “The relationship between regular employees and lawmakers-aides is different.”
• Lee So-young (Democratic Party lawmaker) posted on Facebook, “I disagree.” Kim Nam-hee (Democratic Party lawmaker) also pointed out, “The core issue is respect for those we work with.”
• Kang Jun-wook (Presidential Office Secretary for National Integration), who was embroiled in controversy for past remarks defending illegal martial law, resigned.

No Explanation Given.

• Woo Sang-ho (Presidential Office Chief of Political Affairs) stated, “The final decision was made by the appointing authority, but no explanation was given for this decision.”
• A Democratic Party lawmaker said, “Voluntary resignation is the least burdensome option for both the president and the party.”
• The Kyunghyang Shinmun editorial noted, “Just as you recognize the greenness of a pine tree when the cold wind blows, it is in difficult times that the principles of governance must be firmly established, and the courage to cut off one’s own arm is needed,” emphasizing that the appointment of Kang Sun-woo should be withdrawn.
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Kim Geon-hee’s Necklace Receipt Traced to Unification Church.

• A Unification Church executive might have given Kim Geon-hee (former First Lady) a necklace worth 60 million won and two Chanel bags through Geonjin Monk (Jeon Seong-bae).
• The special prosecutor is investigating whether the Unification Church sought favors for a Cambodian development project, YTN acquisition, and presidential inauguration invitations. There are also signs of involvement in the People Power Party convention.
• The Unification Church claims it was the personal deviation of an executive named Yoon. Jeon Seong-bae testified that he lost the necklace.
• Ahead of the 2023 People Power Party convention, evidence emerged that the Unification Church distributed party membership applications to its members.
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Deep Dive.

How to Deal with Trump.

• The tariff bomb is ten days away. The Trade Association summarized how other countries are responding.
• Canada is the largest export market for the U.S. with a trade volume of $762.4 billion. The supply chain is deeply intertwined, and prolonged trade conflicts could significantly harm U.S. companies, they warn. There are many bargaining tools, such as drug smuggling prevention, critical mineral supply chains, and defense cooperation.
• The EU emphasizes the principle of proportional response. It has already announced retaliatory tariffs worth €21 billion on cars, agricultural products, and whiskey, and is preparing a second list worth €72 billion, including aircraft and medical devices.
• Japan, with Shigeru Ishiba (Japanese Prime Minister) staking the fate of his administration, sees cars and agriculture as variables. The Japanese government is requesting the exclusion of cars from the tariff list.
• Mexico is pressuring by threatening to halt immigration and security cooperation. Like Canada, Mexico is closely linked with the U.S.
• India’s bet is its domestic market of 1.4 billion people and rapid economic growth. There is room for deals, offering U.S. companies priority in sectors with surging demand like energy, aircraft, and defense.
• Korea also needs negotiation cards, they say.
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Energy Imports Instead of Rice and Beef.

• Gu Yoon-cheol (Minister of Strategy and Finance) and Yeo Han-gu (Head of Trade Negotiations) have left for last-minute trade talks. They will meet with Scott Besant (U.S. Secretary of the Treasury) and Jamison Greer (U.S. Trade Representative).
• For now, rice and beef are off the table.
• They plan to propose an investment package including shipbuilding, automobiles, batteries, and semiconductors as negotiation cards. Expanding energy imports is also a strong card.
• There are speculations that the U.S. has proposed a $400 billion investment fund to Korea. It’s similar in scale to the investment fund Japan proposed to the U.S. first.
• Scott Besant emphasized in a CNBC interview, “What’s important is the quality of the agreement, not the timing.” This implies that it’s Korea, not the U.S., racing against the clock. The message is clear: if Korea doesn’t bring proposals the U.S. wants, they won’t back down.
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If You Seem Weak, They Push You Down.

• Matthew Goodman (Researcher, Council on Foreign Relations) noted, “Trump values the resolve of foreign leaders,” adding, “If he perceives weakness, he may adopt a hardline stance.”
• Shigeru Ishiba even donned a ‘MAGA’ hat to curry favor with Trump, yet still faced the same 25% universal tariff as South Korea, which speaks volumes.
• Lee Jae-myung once said during his candidacy, “I can endure any humiliation or coercion if necessary for the sake of the people, even if it means crawling under someone’s legs.” He remarked, “Diplomacy is not about one-sided gains or losses; that’s exploitation, akin to paying tribute.”
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If Compromise Is Necessary?

• Ryu Jin (Chairman of the Korea Employers Federation) stated, “It’s crucial enough to determine the fate of the Korean economy,” adding, “We should consider what Trump wants and perhaps give a little now for the future, even if it means some loss.”
• The conservative camp is already exerting implicit pressure to protect industries and concede on other fronts. Heo Jeong (Professor at Sogang University) warned in a Dong-A Ilbo column, “We must wisely offer what can be given,” cautioning, “If we delay this decision, the opportunity cost will be billed to companies, jobs, and the growth potential of the Korean economy.”
• The desires of the business community clash with the last line of defense in Korean society. It’s time for the Lee Jae-myung administration to demonstrate competence and unifying leadership.
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Will Trump Chicken Out Again?

• Trump is in a tough spot. The U.S. government can’t ignore fiscal health issues forever. The core of Trump’s big, beautiful bill (OBBBA) is tax cuts. Trump claims tariffs are the solution to tax cuts.
• According to Trump’s calculations, tax cuts would reduce fiscal revenue by $5 trillion over 10 years, but a 10% universal tariff could recover $4.5 trillion.
• Trump Always Chickens Out, they say, but this time might be different.

92% of Companies: “Even a 15% Tariff is Tough.”.

• U.S. exports have dropped significantly but still hover around 19%. Chinese exports have also decreased to a similar level.
• Hyundai and Kia exported 7,156 electric vehicles to the U.S. from January to May this year, compared to 59,705 in the same period last year. That’s an 88% drop.
• A survey by the Federation of Korean Industries found that 92% of export companies said “even a 15% tariff is hard to endure.” Only 42% said they could manage when it’s below 10%.
• Michael Beeman (former Deputy U.S. Trade Representative) predicted, “If Trump achieves what could be considered a successful deal, it might be around 15-18%.” The UK, having already concluded negotiations, faces a 10% tariff, while Vietnam and Indonesia face rates of 20% and 19%, respectively.
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Another Take.

Will Lee Jae-myung Raise Corporate Taxes?

• To fulfill all of Lee Jae-myung’s presidential campaign promises, 210 trillion won is needed over five years.
• Koo Yun-cheol (Minister of Economy and Finance) stated in a confirmation hearing, “We will actively consider restoring the corporate tax rate.”
• Chosun Ilbo noted, “Korea’s corporate tax rate is 2.8 percentage points higher than the OECD average,” but this refers to the highest rate. The top corporate tax rate fell from 34% during the Roh Tae-woo administration to 22% under Lee Myung-bak, and has since risen to 26.4%. (For operating profits: 9% for up to 200 million won, 19% up to 20 billion won, 21% up to 300 billion won, and 24% above that. Local taxes add another 10%.)
• In reality, effective tax rates, which account for deductions and credits, should be compared. According to the National Assembly Budget Office, the effective corporate tax rate for large companies with assets over 10 trillion won was 18.7% in 2023.
• The effective tax rate for the top five companies decreased from 19.3% in 2021 to 13.9% in 2023. For small businesses, it rose from 13.1% to 13.4% and 14.0%, while for medium-sized companies, it increased from 18.3% to 19.6%.
• Woo Seok-jin (Professor at Myongji University) pointed out, “Reducing tax deductions can increase the effective tax rate, meaning companies pay a higher proportion of taxes, allowing for more revenue collection.”
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Urban-Rural Education Gap Widens.

• Education Ministry’s academic achievement assessment results are in. For 9th graders, the percentage achieving average or above in major cities is 72% in Korean, 56% in math, and 69% in English. In rural areas, these figures drop to 59%, 37%, and 50%, respectively, showing a significant gap.
• The rate of students below basic proficiency is also telling. In cities, it’s 8%, 10%, and 5% for each subject, while in rural areas, it nearly doubles to 14%, 18%, and 11%.
• Social skills like collaboration and conflict resolution have declined further compared to a year ago.
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Affordable Healthcare, Dangerous Healthcare.

• While health insurance fees are kept low, fees for medical supplies have often remained unchanged for over a decade.
• The introduction of advanced medical equipment is delayed, halting surgeries for pediatric scoliosis and raising concerns about potential stoppages of heart surgeries and treatments for hydrocephalus.
• A pediatric surgeon noted, “With a gastric surgery catheter, nutritional supply is simple, but now we have to perform open surgery to insert a tube.” There are calls to adopt a reference pricing system where patients pay part of the costs, like in Taiwan.
• The Korea Economic Daily pointed out, “To save the collapsing essential medical supplies market, it’s time to put the health insurance fee system on the operating table.”
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Why ‘Ttaenggyeoyo’ Isn’t Catching On.

• It’s a public delivery app created three years ago.
• A small business owner interviewed by Hankyoreh said, “Baedal Minjok and Coupang Eats account for 98% of delivery orders, while ‘Ttaenggyeoyo’ gets about three or four a month.” The brokerage fee for delivery platforms is 7-8%, but ‘Ttaenggyeoyo’ is around 2%.
• ‘Ttaenggyeoyo’ has about 150,000 registered businesses, half the number of Baedal Minjok. Not only are there fewer franchises, but delivery is often delayed due to slow rider connections.
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What Happens to PA Nurses When Residents Return?

• To fill the medical gap, the hiring of Physician Assistant (PA) nurses has doubled. About 70% of their duties overlap with those of residents.
• Initially operated unofficially, the system was institutionalized alongside the Nursing Act amid medical-political conflicts. It’s estimated there are around 20,000 PAs. The Nursing Act passed, but without subordinate legislation, their scope of work remains unclear.
• Some will be reassigned to different wards, but there’s concern they might be discarded like pawns after use.

Safety Latches Installed, Doors Can Now Be Opened.

• In the jjokbangchon, a single air conditioner in the hallway serves multiple rooms. To let the cool air in, doors need to be open, but female residents had to keep them closed for safety reasons.
• Seoul City resolved this by installing safety latches in the jjokbangchon. Doors can be left open, but the latch must be released from inside for entry.
• Seoul City is also operating a ‘women-only night heat shelter (Eunjeon Sauna)’ starting this year.
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South Korea’s Income Redistribution: Among OECD’s Lowest.

• South Korea’s relative poverty rate is 20.2%, compared to the OECD average of 26.9%. Relative poverty refers to the percentage of people earning less than 50% of the median income.
• However, when considering disposable income, which includes taxes and public transfers like national and basic pensions, the relative poverty rate rises to 14.9%, surpassing the OECD average of 11.5%.
• The National Assembly Budget Office analyzed that, unlike OECD countries that effectively alleviate elderly poverty through public transfer programs, South Korea’s public transfers contribute very little to improving poverty among the elderly.
• Lee Sang-min (Senior Researcher at the Korea Institute of Public Finance) stated, “There is a need to strengthen the fiscal role to effectively reduce income inequality generated in the market.”
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ICYMI.

“Vacation in a Disaster?” Lee Jin-sook’s Leave Rejected.

• The Korea Communications Commission is the disaster broadcast control tower. The Presidential Office rejected Lee Jin-sook’s (Chairperson of the Korea Communications Commission) leave, citing its inappropriateness during a disaster situation.
• The leave was scheduled from the 25th to the 31st. Kang Yoo-jung (Presidential Office Spokesperson) stated, “Both on the 18th, when the leave was requested, and now, it is a disaster situation, so it was rejected at the Chief Secretary’s level.”
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“Promises, Promises: All He Got Was a Ministerial Offer.”.

• Without the alliance between Ahn Cheol-soo (People Power Party lawmaker) and Yoon Seok-yeol, Lee Jae-myung might have won in 2022. Yoon wasn’t particularly grateful to Ahn.
• During the alliance talks, Yoon promised “anything,” yet only offered the Minister of Health and Welfare position. This offer came after two other candidates had already been rejected, so Ahn declined. The first and last time they met in three years was a handshake at an event. A meal was suggested, but no follow-up.
• During the last presidential election, Ahn actively supported Kim Moon-soo (then People Power Party candidate). He reportedly sat for four hours without a bathroom break to avoid an empty campaign office photo during exit polls.
• For three years under Yoon’s administration, it was tough to even have a meal with lawmakers due to Yongsan’s interference. Now, more lawmakers are inviting him for meals.
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Russia Produces 5,000 Kamikaze Drones Monthly.

• The Russia-Ukraine war is a drone war.
• Russia produced 5,337 drones in June alone. The Geran-2 costs about 30 to 45 euros each. That’s around 48,000 to 73,000 won. Russia unusually released footage of its drone production facility.

Disappearing Korean Diners.

• The share of Korean cuisine in the dining industry fell from 45.6% in 2018 to 41.8% last year.
• Chinese cuisine increased from 3.5% to 3.9%, Japanese from 1.5% to 2.6%, and Western from 1.7% to 2.4%.
• Korean restaurants have a higher proportion of costs for ingredients and labor at 71.1%, compared to the average of 69.8%. An analysis showed 54.3% of operating costs are for ingredients. The variety of side dishes is seen as a hindrance.
• While 31.7% of dining businesses use delivery apps, only 21.6% of Korean restaurants do.
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Worth Reading.

The Danger Facing the People Power Party.

• French farmers shout, “Paris doesn’t represent us,” while Italy’s southern poor complain, “The elite only care about the north.”
• Germany’s AfD, the UK’s Reform UK, France’s National Rally, Italy’s Brothers of Italy, and Spain’s Vox are joined by Japan’s Sanseito, which champions “Japan First.” The alternative right, with its anti-immigration, anti-globalization, and anti-feminism stance, is stepping into the political spotlight. At the forefront of this movement is Trump.
• Tae Won-jun (Kookmin Ilbo Editorial Writer) pointed out, “It seems that those who claim to be the alternative right are starting to move in Korea as well.”
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Bang Si-hyuk’s Backdoor Deal.

• During an IPO, major shareholders are locked in and cannot sell shares for a while. This is to protect small shareholders.
• Five years ago, Bang Si-hyuk (Chairman of HYBE) used a private equity fund (PEF) to pull a trick. He funneled shares to the PEF and agreed to take 30% of the profits from selling shares immediately after listing. He even spread rumors about delaying the listing to make existing shareholders sell their shares to the PEF.
• The PEFs started selling shares from the first day of listing, and the stock price, initially 350,000 won, plummeted to the 150,000 won range within a week.
• Bang Si-hyuk did not act alone. Numerous experts were involved and concealed the incident. Cho Jin-hyung (Head of Market Insight at Korea Economic Daily) remarked, “The capital market system did not function at all.”
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How Independent Researchers Endure.

• Cho Hyung-geun (Independent Researcher) resigned from his professorship at Hallym University six years ago.
• There are two types of independent researchers. First, those who move from one temporary position to another, hoping for a permanent role. The door is very narrow. Second, there are researchers who pursue free and critical inquiry. Instead of just publishing journal articles, they form research groups, write books, and give lectures.
• The common issue is, of course, the instability of life. 34% of temporary researchers earn between 1 to 2 million won a month. 68% reported doing part-time jobs. Cho Hyung-geun pointed out, “Korea has become a wealthy country, yet its attitude towards non-profitable studies is exceedingly harsh.”
• “Independence in opposition to power and money has been the essential value of universities since the Middle Ages. That value has greatly contributed to improving human life. Today, independence has become the domain of those pushed out of universities. The Researcher Mutual Aid Association is likely an effort to fulfill that role. There are those who study quietly and speak softly. I believe it is thanks to them that the world becomes a little better.”
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