The new norm, extreme downpours. 28 dead and missing.

• The death toll stands at 17, with 11 people reported missing.
• It’s a record downpour since weather observations began in 1939.
• The weather bureau describes it as “a probability that could occur once in 200 years.”
• In 95 cities and counties, 13,400 people were evacuated.
• Crops enough to cover 34,000 soccer fields were damaged by floods. And there was a mass death of livestock, over 1.03 million heads.
• Kim Baek-min, a professor at Pukyong National University, observes: “Compared to the 30-year average, it’s an extraordinary rainfall. But in recent years, extreme rains have become an annual event.”
• The instances of torrential rains—over 80mm per hour—have quadrupled in the last decade.

Every year, a space equivalent to 560 soccer fields collapses.

• The onslaught of heavy rain has seen landslides multiply more than threefold over the course of four years.
• Sancheong County’s Buriri and Bangmok Village of Danseong District, where damage was particularly severe, did not lie within a “landslide-prone zone.”
• In Korea, over the last 40 years, landslides of approximately 400 hectares on average have taken place. That’s the equivalent of 560 football fields collapsing.
• In Korea, forests comprise 63% of the national land, of which, alarmingly, 65% are steep slopes exceeding 20 degrees in incline.
• The frequency of landslide-related cases surged from 651 cases between 2016 and 2019, to an overwhelming 2,232 between 2020 and 2025.
• The Dong-A Ilbo [Korean daily newspaper] opined that “we have to adjust the criterions for landslide-vulnerable areas in line with reality and radically overhaul our forestry creation methods.” That is to say, we must strengthen the fields’ natural damming functions by appropriately proportioning deep-rooted trees–that stabilize the ground like stakes–and surface-root plants that catch soil like a net.

What Matters Now.

Lee Jin-sook nomination withdrawn.

• They’ve given up on Lee Jin-sook, nominee for Education Minister. But the prospects of forcing through Kang Sun-woo, nominee for Minister of Gender Equality and Family, are significant.
• Woo Sang-ho, the Presidential Secretary for Political Affairs, said, “Whether the nominee was a member of parliament was not a crucial consideration.”
• A Democratic Party lawmaker voiced, “President Lee Jae-myung is pragmatic. He doesn’t focus on whether someone is ‘good or bad,’ but whether they ‘are capable.’” He added, “The opposition only attacked Kang Sun-woo’s character, but never found a problem in his policy-making capabilities.”
• The Chosun Ilbo assessed, “They weeded out plagiarism, but spared the high-handed.“
• In an editorial, the Hankyoreh pointed out, “Kang Sun-woo should decide his own fate to ease the burden on national affairs.” The Hankook Ilbo also warned in an editorial, “Public sentiment can turn into a raging wave at any time.“

The return of Yu Hong-jun.

• Hong-Jun Yu (Professor at Myongji University) has been appointed as Director of the National Museum of Korea. He was once the Cultural Heritage Administration Chief during the Roh Moo-hyun administration.
• Kim Ui-gyeom (former Democratic Party lawmaker) has been appointed as the Commissioner of the Saemangeum Development Project.

“I will take the fight,” declares Jung Cheong-rae, a candidate on the rise.

• The Democratic Party’s representative elections are underway and in both Chungcheong and Yeongnam, Jeong Cheong-rae (Democratic Party Member of Parliament) has significantly outpaced Park Chan-dae (Democratic Party Member of Parliament), scoring a 63:37 ratio in both regions.
• Jeong Cheong-rae seems to have struck a chord with party members hungry for reforms.
• However, Park Chan-dae is holding out hope to turn the tables in Honam and the metropolitan areas.
• After primaries in Honam and Gyeonggi on the 26th and 27th, the candidate will be selected at the party convention on August 2nd.

United Future Party: Pro-Yoon vs. Absolutely Yoon.

• The party convention awaits on the 22nd of next month.
• On the pro-Yoon front, there is motion stirred up by Kim Moonsu (former Minister of Employment and Labor) and Jang Dong-hyuk (Member of the People Power Party). From those opposing Yoon, the names of Han Dong-hoon (former Representative of the People Power Party) and Ahn Cheol-soo (Member of the People Power Party) are being mentioned.
• The Hankook Ilbo newspaper anticipates “the biggest bone of contention in the party convention will be the severance of Yoon Seok-Yeol.”
• Regarding the admission of Jeon Han-gil, a history instructor spreading conspiracy theories of election fraud, Kim Moonsu stated, “Unless there is a special problem, we should accept him.”

Why Kang Jun-wook?

• The individual who once hailed Yoon Seok-yeol’s martial law as a “non-democratic form of resistance against democratic tyranny” has been appointed the Secretary for National Unity.
• In the book “Democracy of the Savage,” they argued that actions driving the president’s martial-law proclamation, within his rights, towards insurrection amount to “public manipulation,” and that they “do not believe there is any responsibility for the President’s actions”.
• Kang Joon-wook (Secretary for National Unity) told a Hankyoreh reporter, “The President said we should include those with different opinions, and asked to look for someone, which is how I got recommended.”

Deep Dive.

The reason the special prosecutor, Sergeant Chae, searched a pastor’s premises.

• Offices of Yi Cheolgyu (People Power Party member), Kim Janghwan (Far East Broadcasting Company chairman), and Lee Younghoon (Yeouido Full Gospel Church pastor) were raided in connection to the suspicions of lobbying on behalf of Lim Seonggeun (then-commander of the Marine Corps).
• The independent counsel is exploring the possibility that these religious figures acted as conduits between Lim Seonggeun and the presidential office.
• According to OhmyNews, Lim Seonggeun’s lobbying routes were a trident prong. First, allegations exist that he solicited favours from Kim Janghwan and Lee Younghoon—often the esteemed guests of Mr. and Mrs. Yoon Seokyul. Second, he is suspected of approaching Kim Yonghyeon (then-chief bodyguard) through Ko Seok (lawyer) and Yi Cheolgyu. Third, there is evidence suggesting he lobbied Kim Gunhui through Lee Jongho (former head of Black Pearl Investment).
• The person who called Yis Jongsub (then-defense minister) was none other than Yoon Seokyul.

On Prosecutor Geonjin’s smartphone, there’s ‘Geonhee 2’.

• It appears the number registered under Kim Geon-hee’s aide could have been used by Kim herself. Records indicated the number was in use near the office even after work hours.
• The special prosecutor is digging into indications that a Unification Church official offered a bribe to Kim through Jeon Seong-bae (also known as Geon-jin Legal Practitioner), and asked for her favor in return.
• The special prosecutor has secured three years of the Unification Church’s accounting records, attempting to unravel the Geon-jin Legal Practitioner connections. There were also suspicions that the Church tried to push Kwon Sung-dong (a lawmaker from the People Power Party) into the party leadership position. They confirmed an exchange where Yoon (a high-ranking official of the Unification Church) asked Jeon Seong-bae what exactly “Yoon’s mind” entailed, to which Jeon replied, “Yoon’s mind remains steadfastly with Kwon.” Kwon Sung-dong, however, did not run for party leadership and continues to deny any associated facts.

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party’s crushing defeat in the House of Councillors election.

• Japan, operating under a parliamentary cabinet system, rotates half of its 248 councillors every three years, each with a six-year term.
• An exit poll for the councillor elections, which will reelect 125 seats, predicts that the number of LDP seats will drop from 75 to less than 50.
• This means the LDP’s total seat count, previously at 150, is set to drop to around 125.
• The fallout from the tariff war with the United States has been significant. There are even speculations that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s resignation is inevitable. The Asahi Shimbun, however, analyzed that he might continue regardless of the election results. There currently isn’t a clear successor to Abe in sight.

Another Take.

Not attending the Chinese Victory Day event, are we?

• A suggestion has been floated: number two in the diplomatic hierarchy, Woo Won-shik (the Speaker of the National Assembly), could step in. September 3 marks the 80th anniversary of the victory in the war against Japan.
• Woo Won-shik, who visited China last February during Yoon Seok-youl’s impeachment trial, had met Xi Jinping (the President of China), proposing his attendance at the APEC meeting in Gyeongju.

The population implosion of Changwon, a special case city.

• From 1.09 million in 2010 to 990,000 this June, the numbers dwindled. The average age climbed from 36.7 to 45.7. The 19 to 39 age group shrunk by as much as 28%. Channeling sentiments now flooding the scene, the old ones seem to be all that’s left.
• The imbalance between Changwon City and Masan City is pronounced. While 50% of the young population reside in Seongsan-gu and Uichang-gu, a staggering 46% of the elderly is concentrated in Masan Hap-po-gu and Masan Hoewon-gu.
• The slogan of being the central hub of the Yeongnam region rings hollow when financial independence has plummeted from 50% in 2010 to just 29% last year.
• As Ha Hye-soo (professor at Kyungpook National University) pointed out, “it’s less about integration being the root cause, and more about the issues in the process.” The gist? Showering Changwon with privileges, like granting city status and a city hall, without equitable distribution has deepened feelings of isolation among residents of Masan and Jinhae.

Second half loan volume, slaughtered.

• It shrinks nearly 25% annually.
• Fears arise that a loan cliff, reminiscent of last year’s end, is impending.

Jeonse or monthly rent.

• As gap investment fades, the trend of converting jeonse to monthly rent accelerates.
• Jeonse prices jumped 0.33% in a single month, with listings thinning to boot. Rumblings have started about a potential jeonse crunch this fall.
• Professor Ko Jun-seok of Yonsei University warned, “If regulations on jeonse loans tighten, people may shift to semi-jeonse, opening the possibility for both jeonse and monthly rental costs to escalate.”
• Professor Park Hap-soo from Konkuk University pointed out,”The real backlash hasn’t hit yet.” If household loan quotas are slashed by half, all loans could be exhausted before the fourth quarter – even those who meet the requirements might find themselves unable to secure loans. As the story goes, “unless you’re rolling in cash, you could be pushed out not only from the real estate market but even the jeonse scene.”

“The need for conglomerates to negotiate social compacts remains.”

• Professor Ha-Joon Chang (University of London) may sound like a broken record, repeating the same message for over 20 years: “Still, there is a need for a societal grand bargain between conglomerates and Korean society.”
• Although Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-yong’s illegal succession trial recently concluded with an innocent verdict from the Supreme Court, the Achilles’ heel—namely, the revised insurance business law—remains. Korean conglomerates continue to exercise power that far surpasses their ownership levels, leaving them still vulnerable to management control disputes.
• We must not overlook the uncomfortable truth that the urgency of chaebol reform has seemingly faded after passing through the tenure of prominent chaebol reformists like Jang Ha-sung and Kim Sang-jo, former Chiefs of Presidential Policy at the Blue House.

Shareholder capitalism gone overboard? For starters, South Korea could do with increasing dividends.

• Kim Hak-kyun (Head of Shin Young Securities Research Center) begs to differ.
• The extreme logic of shareholder maximization in the U.S., as pointed out by Chang Ha-joon, indeed poses considerable risks. Starbucks and McDonald’s, despite making profits, are eroding their capital. They’re borrowing to increase dividends and buy back their own shares.
• In Kim Hak-kyun’s eyes, Korea is not yet at a stage to be wary of shareholder capitalism. He notes, “It’s premature to discuss the side effects of giving when you’ve never given in the first place.” He insists that Korea should instead heed warnings that its excessively low stock prices may incite hostile shareholder activism.
• Relative to other countries, Korea has a lower dividend propensity and among the lowest Price-to-Book Ratios in the world. Kim Hak-kyun explains that “a low PBR implies ‘a glorious past but a worrying future'”. He adds, “It reflects concerns that while they amassed capital from past profits, future capital growth seems unlikely.”
• The Yoon Seok-youl government may have merely paid lip service, but the Value-Up Project is essential. Institutional investors must step up. The Stewardship Code should be activated. Corporate law amendments have been passed, but one can’t legally dictate the scale of shareholder returns.

The Fix.

The secret to selling electric motorcycles at half their price.

• VeryWise is selling motorcycles at half price in Cambodia.
• Sell a $2,600 electric motorcycle without a battery for $1,600, and you can save approximately 400,000 won ($356) over ten years if you get 15,000 won ($13.36) per ton recognized for your carbon reduction performance. Basically, it turns into a half-priced motorcycle.
• The approach is to sell the carbon reduction performance to the South Korean government and apply it to their National Determined Contributions (NDC) if it is recognized by the Cambodian government. This is likely the first successful internation transfer of mitigation outcomes (ITMO).
• Petrol-burning motorcycles emit 2.68 tons of carbon when driven 30,000km annually, whereas electric motorcycles emit only 0.40 ton. Rather than charging the battery, it is replaced, with a membership system in place.
• Kim Sung-woo, CEO of VeryWise, states he went, “not to sell motorcycles, but to create an ‘international mitigation’ market.”
• Under the Paris Agreement, the South Korean government has to cut carbon emissions by 291 million tons by 2030 compared to 2018. Of this, they plan to reduce 37.5 million tons via ITMO. If the carbon reduction performance reaches 50,000 won ($44.50) per ton, there’s a 2 trillion won ($1.78 billion) market still left to explore.

• VeryWise donated 8,000 electric motorcycles, (worth 20 billion won or $17.8 million), to the Cambodian government and received approval for 680,000 tons of emission reduction. The Cambodian government will set up the battery charging station, and they also have a tax benefit. The official motorcycles are refurbished every two years, which lowers the retail price. Thanks to the ‘international mitigation’ trade, they claim to be able to generate profits even after giving away 8,000 motorcycles for free.
• The keywords are data and ecosystem. Because the carbon reduction performance was proven through data, the ‘international mitigation’ trade was possible, and the battery infrastructure and network ecosystem allowed for the establishment of a business model and barriers to entry.
• In comparison to other Southeast Asian nations, Cambodia’s motorcycle distribution rate is still low, meaning there’s a more substantial margin for emission reductions in this emerging market. VeryWise projects it could achieve a maximum reduction of 11 million tons by 2035.

A steep demise: the dream of energy independence.

• It’s an island off the southern coast of Jeju. From 2012, 14.6 billion KRW was invested in wind and solar power. The renewable energy proportion even soared to 33%, earning accolades as an exemplar of carbon neutrality.
• But the JoongAng Ilbo’s on-site investigation paints a grimmer picture. The renewable energy ratio has plunged below 3%. Dependency on diesel generators is glaring.
• 48 households were given up to 90% support to install solar panels worth 12 million KRW. Yet maintenance was sorely lacking.
• Two wind turbines ceased operation after five years. They’ve been recently cleared away. Accusations fly about the blind provision of subsidies, with little to no concern for upkeep.

ICYMI.

EElon Musk praised Solar Pro 2.

• In findings from an artificial intelligence performance test, it appears that Korea’s Upstage’s Solar Pro2 leads the pack in cost versus performance. Link to the source.
• Ironically, interest in the Solar Pro2 escalated when Tesla CEO Elon Musk referenced the post, contesting that “Groq’s xAI is still number one”. Groq is an AI company owned by Musk himself.
• The critique stands; while xAI has good performance, it commands a hefty price tag.
• “I congratulate xAI on their first-place achievement,” Kim Sung Hoon (Captain of Upstage), left a comment, going on to add that “It won’t last long. We’ll catch up soon.”
• In response, Groq maintained a sportsmanlike stance in an official account statement, asserting “We welcome the competition,” and adding, “It’s good to see Solar’s development.”

From today, the application for life-recovery coupons begins.

• If the last digit of your birth year is 1 or 6, it’s Monday. For 2 and 7, Tuesday. 3 and 8? Wednesday. 4 and 9 take note: it’s Thursday. And for those with 5 and 0? That would be Friday.
• Underage individuals apply accompanied by their household heads. Spouses and direct ascendants/descendants may also apply in proxy.
• The application deadline is September 12th.

Trump changed the taste of Coke.

• Donald Trump, the U.S. president who downs 12 cans of diet cola a day, has asked Coca-Cola to replace corn syrup with cane sugar. They’ve agreed.
• It’s part of the ‘Make America Healthy Again’ campaign.

SK Telecom’s market share has crumbled to 40%.

• As of May, subscribers tallied up to 22.5 million, a whopping 39.3% of all mobile telecommunications subscribers. Compared to April, this reflects a drop of 0.8 percentage points. It’s the first time the number has dipped below 40%.
• KT and LG UPlus recorded 23.8% and 19.5% respectively. An uptick by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points for each.
• The blow of the hacking incident last April likely led to a steeper fall in June. In the wake of the hacking accident, the total number of subscribers nose-dived by 600,000 by June 14th.

Idols that never sleep, nor fall sick, nor age.

• The Wall Street Journal covered the ‘K-pop Demon Hunters’ phenomenon.
• Two of its original sound tracks climbed into the top tiers of Spotify’s most streamed songs. Records that not even BTS or Blackpink have achieved.
• The Wall Street Journal evaluated, stating, “Fictitious musicians have gained popularity more quickly in the U.S. than their human counterparts.”
• Kim Suk-Young, a professor at UCLA, analyzed, “We are seeing the emergence of idols who neither sleep, get ill, nor age,” and added, “the likelihood of copycat versions is high.” But Benny Cha, a composer, argued, “the vulnerability, chemistry, and unpredictability exhibited by real artists cannot be fabricated.”

The difference between stablecoins and casino chips.

• In casinos, they exchange your cash for chips. If you’re not cleaned out, you can exchange them back into cash when you leave.
• The U.S. government’s officially sanctioned stablecoins operate on a similar system. Trump anticipates that stablecoins will increase the demand for U.S. Treasuries, thereby stabilizing the value of the dollar.

Yoon Seok-youl indicted. Finally.

• Despite some time left on his detention, he appears determined to dispute his case in court, remaining taciturn during inquiries. Nine days have passed since his arrest.
• Kim Yong-dae (Drone Operation Commander) was urgently apprehended for his personal safety when a suicide note turned up during a raid. He is under suspicion for falsifying documents in an attempt to cover up the Pyongyang drone operation.

The $10 billion lawsuit between Trump and Murdoch.

• Rupert Murdoch is the world’s biggest media mogul, owning the likes of Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones.
• Trump allegedly sent a risqué painting as a birthday gift to underage sex offender Jeffrey Epstein; when the Wall Street Journal covered this story, Trump is said to have phoned Murdoch on multiple occasions to intimidate him into withdrawing the subsequent articles.
• Gabriel Kahn (professor at USC) evaluated Murdoch as a genuine journalist, “considering the many terrible things he’s done over the last 60 years. He loves news and scoops, less a man to block a story, more one who relishes standing at the heart of it.”
• The Financial Times assessed that a crack has begun to form in the bond between the “two men who have conservatized America.”

Worth Reading.

How about the resignation of 30 People Power Party lawmakers?

• Here’s a proposal from Kim Seung-Ryeon, Editorial Director of Dong-A Ilbo. As it stands, the People Power Party exists devoid of hope.
• The public hearings of Lee Jin-Suk and Kang Sun-Woo passed without a ripple, for this very reason. Do those who once lagged behind during the lifting of martial law and interfered in Yoon Seok-yeol’s arrest have the moral high ground to criticize plagiarism and abuse of power? Must we witness this pathetic spectacle for three years until the next general election?
• Kim Seung-Ryeon’s suggestion goes as follows: If 30 incumbent lawmakers voluntarily resign by this fall, next year’s June local elections could function as a mini general election. The idea is to hand the reigns over to a political newcomer with a grasp of metropolitan politics in the vacant spot left by the ‘real Yoon’.
• Kim Seung-Ryeon acknowledged in his remarks, “I realize the chances are less than 1%,” and emphasized, “Courage is needed to let go when you’re hanging off a cliff.”

Dismantling the prosecution, what would it mean for ordinary citizens?

• In the past, the police would hand over their primary investigation results to the prosecutors, who would then decide whether to indict.
• Kim Ye-won, a lawyer from the Center for Disabled Rights, assessed it as “not an unnecessary redundancy, but a minimal safeguard to ensure the legality of the investigation and secure substantial truth.”
• Since the 2021 restructuring of investigative rights between the prosecutors and the police, the police can now choose not to forward a case at their discretion. Cases not forwarded by the police are only sent to the prosecutor’s office if the plaintiff files an objection.
• The Prosecutor’s Office dismantling bill, which the Democratic Party is pushing forth, restricts the office to merely deciding on indictment.
• Kim Ye-won pointed out, “If this bill is enacted, the first to suffer will be ordinary citizens who lack resources and information, particularly the socially disadvantaged“. She emphasized that “judicial reform should be a functioning system in reality, not just a political slogan.”

It’s about time we stopped using the term “management rights.”

• The term “right to manage” is rather elusive. Kim Woo-jin (a professor at Seoul National University) believes it’s because we still think of corporations as personal property.
• “Abroad, they talk about ‘control contests’ instead of management rights. Jung Eun-sun (Chairman of Hyundai Motor Company) is recognized for his management skills, isn’t he? If an activist fund shows up and demands that Jung steps down, would the ordinary shareholders agree? If he performs well, he stays; if not, he’s out.”
• Kim Woo-jin anticipates that, following amendments to the commercial law, “Now, it will be difficult for a board of directors to rubber-stamp favoritism or mergers with affiliates.” The point being, “The best defense is to manage well and boost the stock price.”
• Kim argues that “the scope of breach of trust should be narrowed under the presumption that the duty of loyalty to shareholders works well.” Anglo-American law does not have a separate crime for breach of trust. It’s a civil matter there.

Eleven years of the Mobile Device Distribution Improvement Act.

• Once upon a time, you could buy a Galaxy S, worth 960,000 won, for a mere 170,000. It was a time when how cheaply you could activate your parents’ smartphone was a measure of filial piety. The criticism poured down: we were being ripped off, victims of an information gap. Thus, was born the “Act on Improving the Distribution Structure of Mobile Communication Terminals,” otherwise known as the Mobile Device Distribution Improvement Act. This Act, after eleven years, has now been repealed.
• Hong Hee-Kyung, an editorial writer at Seoul Newspaper, suggested, “The eleven years following the implementation of the Act could well be remembered as a time when good intentions in the market resulted in adverse effects.”
• The combined operating profits of the three major telcos jumped from 1.6 trillion won in 2014 to 4.4 trillion won in 2023. The number of phone number transfers decreased from 9.8 million in 2012 to 5.61 million in 2023.
• The distribution network has deteriorated. From 25,724 locations in 2018, it dropped to 18,815 in 2023. LG Electronics withdrew from the smartphone business. The operating profit of LG Electronics MC Business Division, which was 311.9 billion won in 2014, turned to a deficit of 1.2591 trillion won in 2016.
• Hong Hee-Kyung pointed out, “Only the bitter lesson remains: the market can collapse in an instant, but reviving it is nothing short of a miracle.”
• Kim Jin-Wook, a reporter at Hankook Ilbo, warned, “They abolished the law to stimulate competition, but without a proper check, the market can quickly fall into a state of lawlessness and confusion.”

It’s time to spend money.

• Woo Seok-jin, a professor at Myongji University, suspects the positive effects of consumer spending coupons – aimed at reviving Korea’s economy, as examined by the Bank of Korea – may have been underrated.
• While the Bank of Korea estimates they add a mere 0.1% to the GDP, Woo counters, “In nations like Korea where self-employed individuals make a large proportion of the workforce, the impact could be much larger.”
• Korea’s self-employment rate based on last year’s data stands at 19.8%. In comparison, the U. S. and Japan are at 6% and 9% respectively.
• Woo emphasizes, “Spending coupons aren’t just simple subsidies; they symbolize cooperation and solidarity towards economic recovery”. This is indeed high time to demonstrate the magic of hotel economics. It’s time, as the saying goes, “for spending to come into its own.”