Toppled 13 Years of Dictatorship in 3 Hours.

• The U.S. deployed special forces to the Venezuelan presidential palace and kidnapped Nicolás Maduro (Venezuelan President).
• Donald Trump (U.S. President) said, “We will run Venezuela until power is properly transferred”—a declaration of interim governance.
• The operation was codenamed ‘Absolute Resolve.’ It mobilized over 150 military aircraft, including F-22s, and deployed Delta Force.
• Though it violates the UN Charter prohibiting force against sovereign states, Trump claims Maduro lacks legitimacy due to election fraud.

The Kidnapping of Maduro Was About Oil.

• Trump said at a press conference, “We will not allow the plundering of the American people”—referring to companies like ExxonMobil, which were expelled after entering Venezuela in 2007. He also denounced the nationalization of the oil industry as “the biggest theft in history.”
• “Venezuela’s oil industry has long been in complete disarray. We aim to deploy U.S. energy companies to invest in infrastructure recovery and more.”
• Venezuela is the country with the largest oil reserves. Its crude is heavy, viscous, and high in impurities—extremely low-grade oil that generates significant pollution and costs during processing. Since its production share is only about 1%, many analysts argue its impact on global oil prices would be limited.

Trump’s Monroe Doctrine 2.0: The Core Is the U.S.-China Hegemony War.

• James Monroe (former U.S. President) emphasized U.S. hegemony in the Americas—a policy known as the Monroe Doctrine. “Monroe” here is a portmanteau of Donald + Monroe, reflecting Trump’s resolve to restore U.S. unilateral hegemony.
• The U.S. has sanctioned Venezuela since 2019, but China supported the country by importing 80% of its crude oil exports.
• Venezuela is not the only case. According to the Andrés Bello Report, China has lent $136 billion to Latin America, with Venezuela alone accounting for $62 billion.

What Matters Now.

Not a Fire on the Other Side of the River.

• Hankyoreh headlined, “Armed Invasion of a Sovereign State” on its front page. Chosun Ilbo’s front-page title was “Trump’s Display of Power Politics.”
• JoongAng Ilbo warned in an editorial, “This could mark the beginning of an era of so-called ‘great-power collusion,’ where the U.S. tacitly accepts Russian influence in Europe and Chinese influence in Asia to a certain extent.”
• KyeongHyang Shinmun assessed, “The U.S. has ushered in an era of ‘rogue superpower.’” Its editorial analyzed, “America’s military action legitimizes Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and sends the wrong signal to a threatening China over Taiwan.”
• Segye Ilbo pointed out in an editorial, “The Maduro regime’s dictatorship should have been halted not by U.S. force but by the Venezuelan people’s own power.”
• Donga Ilbo emphasized in its editorial, “We must prepare for an era where power and national interest grow even more brutal.”
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The South Korean Government Did Not Condemn Trump’s Aggression.

• The international community’s response is divided into four main categories.
• First, strong condemnation of the U.S.: including China, Russia, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay, Iran, Belarus, and Nicaragua.
• Second, emphasizing peaceful resolution without criticizing the U.S.: including South Korea, Germany, the UK, Denmark, Canada, Paraguay, the Czech Republic, Colombia, and Italy.
• Third, supporting the U.S.: including Israel and Argentina.
• Fourth, neither supporting nor condemning the U.S. while criticizing Maduro: including Spain, France, Panama, and Ecuador.
• South Korea’s Foreign Ministry limited its statement to urging “all parties to make maximum efforts to ease tensions.” It added, “We hope for the swift stabilization of Venezuela through dialogue, with democracy restored while respecting the will of the Venezuelan people”—but did not criticize the U.S. government.
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What Lies Ahead for Venezuela?

• Analysts widely expect Venezuela’s military to resist surrender. The Washington Post noted, “A large-scale occupation would expose U.S. troops to greater danger than a night raid.”
• Delsi Rodríguez (Venezuelan Vice President) took the presidential oath. Trump claimed, “Delsi Rodríguez will help the U.S.,” but immediately after his press conference, Rodríguez stated, “Maduro is Venezuela’s only president” and urged, “The international community must recognize that Trump’s goal is Venezuela’s oil resources.”
• He added, “We have not contacted María Corina Machado (Venezuelan opposition leader, Nobel Peace Prize laureate). ‘Machado lacks support in Venezuela. She’s a very good person, but she lacks support.’”
• Tim Kaine (Democratic Senator) remarked:
• “Where next? Deploy troops to Iran? To enforce an unstable ceasefire in Gaza? To fight terrorists in Nigeria? To occupy Greenland or the Panama Canal? To suppress Americans who oppose his policies? Trump has threatened to do all this and more, and he feels no need to seek legal approval from the elected legislature before endangering soldiers.”
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Deep Dive.

Will Xi Jinping Present Four Demands?

• Taiwan’s Lianhebao reported that China presented a “4 Demands, 4 Responses” (4要4答) to South Korea. The South Korean government denied this.
• First, to agree with Beijing’s “One-China” principle,
• Second, to refrain from operating U.S.-made defense weapons in the Indo-Pacific region,
• Third, to reject U.S. requests to deploy intermediate-range missile systems,
• Fourth, to oppose expanding the role of U.S. troops stationed in South Korea.
• If South Korea accepts these four demands,
• First, Beijing would lift sanctions on Hanwha Ocean’s subsidiary,
• Second, abolish the “anti-Korea” cultural restrictions (Hanhanling),
• Third, increase Chinese tourist visits to South Korea up to fivefold,
• Fourth, reportedly offer cooperation in facilitating dialogue with Kim Jong-un (North Korean Chairman of the State Affairs Commission).
• Today’s (5th) South Korea-China summit is underway.
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North Korea Launches Ballistic Missile.

• Timing is suspiciously coincidental. It could be a message that North Korea is different from Venezuela—or an attempt to counterbalance the mention of North Korean denuclearization at the Sino-Korean summit.
• Two Hwasong-11 type missiles were fired. They traveled 900 km before crashing into the East Sea.
• Some analysts speculate that Kim Jong-un (North Korean State Affairs Commissioner) may be reliving fears of regime change. The conviction that nuclear weapons are the only path to survival might have hardened.

Trump’s Dollar Diplomacy vs. Xi’s Multilateralism.

• Trump views the Americas, including Venezuela, as his front yard. Xi has steadily expanded anti-U.S. alliances. The Sino-South Korean summit opens as U.S.-China tensions erupt.
• Lee Byung-chul (Kyungnam University professor) analyzed, “There’s a risk of appearing to defect from the U.S. bloc,” adding, “The importance of diplomatic tightrope-walking has reached its peak.”
• Kang Jun-young (Hankuk University of Foreign Studies professor) stated, “In a situation where openly criticizing the U.S. or staying silent on Chinese provocations is equally difficult, South Korea must refine its principled stance—adherence to international norms and support for peaceful resolution—with precision.”
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Another Take.

Low Growth, Poor Distribution: Heading Toward Anglo-American Capitalism.

• Lee Keun (Chung-Ang University professor) pointed out, “While expanded AI investment could act as a catalyst for short-term economic recovery, the growing gap between growth and distribution is the real issue.” His analysis: “The content of growth matters more than growth itself.”
• The solution? Shift from low-tax, low-welfare to medium-tax, medium-welfare. South Korea has weak tax-based redistribution. Its tax burden rate is 18.6%, less than half the OECD average of 25.4%.
• Lee Keun criticized, “If the Yoon Suk-yeol government increased national debt through tax cuts, the Lee Jae-myung administration fell into a fiscal trilemma by expanding spending without broadening the tax base.” High welfare, low tax burden, and low national debt cannot coexist.
• He argues the government should have introduced a financial investment income tax (금투세) early in its term—a warning that rising national bond interest rates could pose long-term risks.

Kim Byung-ki’s Petition Was Received by Kim Hyun-ji.

• Kim Byung-ki (former Democratic Party floor leader) faced allegations of receiving nomination funds, and a petition detailing these suspicions was delivered to Kim Hyun-ji (then aide to Rep. Lee Jae-myung) ahead of last year’s general election.
• The key issue is whether Lee Jae-myung (then Democratic Party leader) was aware.
• Cho Seung-rae (Democratic Party secretary-general) stated, “We view this as an individual’s deviation rather than a systemic issue,” adding, “We have no plans to investigate the entire nomination process.”
• According to Chosun Ilbo, Lee Soo-jin (former Democratic Party lawmaker) possesses a recording in which she says, “I reported it to the party leader (Lee Jae-myung).”
• Jo Seung-woo (People Power Party lawmaker) claimed, “Only Lee Jae-myung and Kim Hyun-ji could have suppressed the petition.” Park Seong-hoon (People Power Party spokesperson) pointed out, “The core issue has shifted from who received the money to who covered it up.”
• According to JoongAng Ilbo, the Democratic Party is abandoning Kim Byung-ki and Kang Seon-woo while protecting Lee Hye-hoon. They have also imposed a gag order on the Lee Hye-hoon issue. Some suggest this reflects the president’s strong will.
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Lee Hye-hoon’s Failed Vetting? Is This the People Power Party’s Line?

• Pressure to resign mounts over allegations of abuse of power and real estate speculation.
• Lee Hye-hoon (Minister of Planning and Budget nominee) has received five nominations from the People Power Party.
• Cho Seung-rae (Democratic Party Secretary-General) said, “Instead of criticizing the Blue House’s vetting, they should apologize for failing to vet her themselves.”
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The Fix.

Real Estate Speculation: Corporations Must Be Tackled First.

• Seoul’s real estate market capitalization grew from 752 trillion won in 2015 to 1,957 trillion won in 2025.
• Jin Sung-jun (Democratic Party lawmaker) argues, “Without resolving the real estate issue, we cannot secure reform momentum in other sectors.” He co-authored a policy report with the Land+Liberty Institute, proposing three measures.
• First, without strengthening property taxes, housing prices cannot be stabilized nor inequality reduced.
• Second, real estate speculation by corporations must be curbed. Among Korean firms’ fixed asset investments, the ratio of land purchases is nine times the OECD average.
• Third, land-lease public housing must be expanded. This refers to public housing where the government retains land ownership while selling only the buildings. It serves to recapture development gains and mitigate inequality.
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Build 120,000 Public Rental Homes.

• It’s a proposal by Cho Kuk (Representative of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party). “Starting from a reflection on the Moon Jae-in administration,” he argued, “Creating large-scale public rental housing complexes in prime areas of the capital region could significantly resolve housing issues.”
• The proposal suggests utilizing sites such as the Taereung Golf Course, the Army Academy grounds, and the Seoul Airport site.

Landfill Waste in the Capital Region Drops from 1,907 Tons to 330 Tons.

• Starting this year, it is no longer permitted to bury general waste bags in landfills. With direct landfill bans in effect, only incinerated or recycled residue can be disposed of.
• As of January 2, waste deliveries to the capital region landfill were nearly 83% lower than the same date a year ago.
• Last year, 500,000 tons of waste were delivered to the capital region landfill.

Seoul’s Waste: Paying Premiums to Ship to Chungcheong Province.

• Direct landfill bans were decided in 2021, but five years were wasted. Seoul failed to expand a single public incinerator.
• In a rush, the city struck deals with private waste firms in Chungnam’s Gongju and Seosan, but disposal costs jumped from 110,000 won to 150,000 won per ton.
• Tokyo has 22 incinerators for its 23 wards.

Reevaluating the Yongin Semiconductor Complex: It’s Not Too Late.

• Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix require 9GW and 6GW respectively, but have secured only about 6GW.
• An SK Hynix official who spoke with Hankyoreh said, “The risks are too great to rely solely on the government, so we’re exploring multiple possibilities.” This implies they’re keeping the option of relocating to a different region open.
• Jeon Young-hwan (Hongik University professor) stated, “The government must face the reality that even if it orders Korea Electric Power Corporation to supply electricity and build transmission lines, implementation is not guaranteed,” adding, “They should now concretely demand conditions necessary for relocation.”
• Kwak Jung-soo (Hankyoreh senior reporter) argued, “If not just semiconductors but other companies also relocate, regions facing population decline and industrial hollowing-out could stretch and revive,” urging, “The government must overcome fears of ‘special treatment’ accusations and push for bold support.”
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ICYMI.

Why the National AI Showcase Fell Short.

• Five companies held the first presentation session, but none properly demonstrated benchmark metrics.
• Being good at Korean cannot be a competitive advantage—when tasked with solving college entrance exam problems, their scores were significantly lower than overseas models.
• Kang Da-eun (Chosun Ilbo Silicon Valley correspondent) pointed out, “We cannot gloss over this with vague praise like ‘everyone did well.’”
• It’s unrealistic to expect perfection from the first attempt or to match Google’s capabilities, but there must be transparent disclosure of how close these models are to stated goals.
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KTX Suanbo Hot Springs Station Sees 65 Daily Passengers.

• Immediately after opening in 2024, monthly ridership was 3,487—by September last year, it had dropped to 1,948. Such is the reality of Suanbo Hot Springs, once visited by 3 million annually.
• The 150 billion won project to remodel the Waikiki Resort has been suspended.
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Capital Region vs. Non-Capital Region: A 1.04 Million Population Gap.

• Capital region: 26.08 million, non-capital region: 25.04 million.
• Registered population has declined for six consecutive years. Those aged 65+ account for 21%.
• By 2040, one in three Seoul residents will be 65 or older.

School-Age Population Drops 18%, Private Education Costs Surge 60%.

• From 18 trillion won a decade ago to 29 trillion won today. Student numbers fell from 6.28 million to 5.13 million.
• Monthly private education spending per student is 470,000 won.

Examining South Korea’s Wealth Rankings.

• Self-made billionaires have surged. Among Forbes’ top 50, numbers rose from 9 in 2005 to 23 in 2025.
• Total assets of the top 50 grew from 23 trillion won in 2005 to 143 trillion won in 2025.
• On Bloomberg’s real-time Billionaires Index (as of January 4), only two Koreans appear: Lee Jae-yong (Samsung Electronics Chairman) at 143rd and Jo Jung-ho (Meritz Financial Group Chairman) at 457th. Kim Byung-joo (MBK Partners CEO) at 381st holds U.S. citizenship.

Worth Reading.

“No Hope.”.

• Kim Kwang-il (Chosun Ilbo editorial editor) views, “The traitor’s noose has shackled conservatives’ feet for the past decade.” His analysis: from Yu Seung-min (former Saenuri Party floor leader) to Han Dong-hoon (former People Power Party leader), the traitor stigma has eroded conservative energy like a virus.
• The “rigged election noose,” the “insurrection noose,” and the “Yoon Again noose” are no different. Once entangled, escape is difficult. “Yoon Again” is not an alternative narrative but a product of cognitive dissonance—and has become a weaponized taunt for the opposition.
• Reflecting Chosun Ilbo’s current tone, the column offers no redemption. Kim Kwang-il warns, “Conservatives will eventually flail in the swamp of their own contradictions and completely lose public trust.”
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When Administrative Experts Do Politics.

• No one opposes boosting stock prices, raising growth rates, or increasing jobs. Exports must grow, and money must flow.
• Yoon Bi (Sungkyunkwan University professor) warned, “Administrative power must not devour politics,” explaining, “Because the national interest that administrative authority pursues cannot be as self-evident, neutral, or objective as a mathematical formula.”
• In countries with authoritarian legacies and intense political strife, there’s often exaggerated faith in smart elite bureaucrats. But administration and politics are distinct. There are times when conflicts must be mediated, priorities shifted, and opposition overcome.
• Yoon Bi pointed out, “Much of what we generally accept as national interest is merely a loose consensus formed through the clash and blending of various public interests and values.”
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What Makes a Successful President?

• Pragmatism alone is insufficient. Yoon Hong-sik (Inha University professor) noted, “Nothing is more precarious than a bureaucrat toiling tirelessly without direction.”
• “Because there is no way to alleviate the crises facing people’s livelihoods while continuing ‘growth without employment and distribution’ as we see now.”
• Yoon Hong-sik emphasized, “Pragmatism must become the means to realize alternatives and strategies.”
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Who’s Next After Lee Hye-hoon?

• Lee Hye-hoon (Minister of Planning and Budget nominee) would not be meaningless even if she falls. After all, she apologized for her past collusion with the insurrection and succeeded in isolating the ‘Yoon Again’ faction.
• Lee Jae-o (former chairman of the Democratic Movement Memorial Foundation) being floated as a candidate for Anti-Corruption and Civil Rights Commission chief also stems from this reasoning. It could become a strategy to shake the conservative camp and expand the center.
• Kang Byung-han (Kyunghyang Shinmun political editor) emphasized, “Clearing the insurrection goes beyond condemning Yoon Suk-yeol’s faction,” adding, “The ‘Yoon Again’ group must be ghettoized, and those opposing the insurrection should establish themselves as the majority coalition in Korean society.”
• The message is clear: “The true overcoming of insurrection lies in ensuring anti-constitutional forces never set foot in politics again.”
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Unification Church Special Prosecutor and Nomination Donation Special Prosecutor.

• Jeong Cheong-rae (Democratic Party leader) decided to pursue a special prosecutor for the Unification Church but not for the nomination donation scandal involving Kim Byung-gi (former Democratic Party floor leader) and Kang Seon-woo (Democratic Party lawmaker).
• Lee Chun-jae (Hankyoreh editorial writer) pointed out, “The Democratic Party’s ‘halfway special prosecutor’ strategy could be a double-edged sword.” While it might yield immediate effects, he warned that it risks falling into a ‘do-as-I-say-not-as-I-do’ trap—much like how the Moon Jae-in administration’s anti-corruption investigations were later weaponized against the ruling party.
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Hyundai Motor’s Violation of the Broadcasting Act.

• Article 4, Clause 2 of the Broadcasting Act: “No one may impose any regulation or interference on broadcasting programming except as prescribed by this Act or other laws.”
• Jeong Yeon-woo (Professor at Semyung University) pointed out that if pressure was applied to broadcasters like SBS and YTN to tone down articles about Jung Ji-seon (Hyundai Motor Chairman)’s son Jung Jang-cheol’s drunk driving incident from four years ago, it could constitute a violation of the Broadcasting Act.
• It’s not just broadcasters. The Segye Ilbo and Newsis completely deleted the articles, while Yonhap News, News1, CBS, Seoul Shinmun, Hankyoreh, and Hankook Ilbo changed references to Hyundai Motor to “H Group” or “a conglomerate” and omitted Jung Ji-seon’s name.
• Jeong Yeon-woo argued, “Legal responsibility must be strictly imposed under the Broadcasting Act on Hyundai Motor, which infringed on press freedom, and on internal collaborators with strong suspicion of complicity.”
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