Blackout and Water Cut-Off Orders: Lee Sang-min Sentenced to 7 Years.

• Lee Sang-min (former Minister of the Interior and Safety) faces charges of participating in a major mutiny-related task. On the night of December 3, he instructed Heo Seok-gon (then Fire Agency Commissioner) and others to cut electricity and water to media outlets including Kyunghyang Shinmun and The Hankyoreh.
• Yesterday’s first-instance ruling can be summarized as: first, the illegal emergency martial law constitutes mutiny; second, the blackout and water cut-off orders were acts of participation in mutiny.
• The court ruled, “Despite being a high-ranking official obligated to uphold the liberal democratic order and protect the Constitution and laws, Lee followed the instructions of Yoon Suk-yeol (former president) and Kim Yong-hyun (former Defense Minister) to order the blackout and water cut-off.”
• Heo Seok-gon stated, “I seem to have questioned Lee Sang-min several times.” Heo received the order but did not comply.
• The court noted, “Even if the blackout and water cut-off did not actually occur, responsibility cannot be avoided.”
• The special prosecution requested a 15-year sentence, but the court imposed a lighter term. The reasoning: “There is no evidence of plotting or preparing mutiny, and the act of participation consisted of only one phone call.” In an editorial, The Hankyoreh criticized, “This is a case that should have been punished more severely, not leniently.”
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Han Duck-soo: 15+8 Years, Lee Sang-min: 15-8 Years.

• Han Duck-soo (former Prime Minister) received 8 years added to the prosecution’s request, while Lee Sang-min’s sentence was reduced by 8 years.
• An anonymous senior judge met by Dong-A Ilbo said, “Since mutiny is unprecedented, it’s difficult to establish uniform standards,” adding, “sentences could change through appeals.”
• When Lee Sang-min heard someone in the gallery say, “Dad, it’s okay, I love you,” he turned and smiled. He even waved as he left.
• Yoon Suk-yeol’s sentencing is next Tuesday, the 19th.
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Mutiny Continued Even After Martial Law Rescission Resolution.

• These are the findings of the Constitutional Respect Innovation Task Force. Investigations are underway to identify government officials who colluded in the mutiny.
• It concluded, “Judgments and directives originating from the pinnacle of power were transmitted not only to the military and police with armed force but also to multiple agencies with relevant functions, posing a real risk of undermining constitutional governance.”
• The TF has disciplined 89 individuals, with 82 receiving warnings or reprimands. It plans to refer 110 cases for investigation—108 of whom are military personnel.

What Matters Now.

A Petty Politics Too Narrow to Share a Meal.

• This is the headline from JoongAng Ilbo’s front page. Lee Jae-myung (President) had invited Jeong Cheong-rae (Democratic Party Leader) and Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party Leader) for lunch, but Jang backed out an hour before.
• The Hankook Ilbo assessed, “Only a no-show remains on the co-governance stage.”
• Regarding the Democratic Party’s passage of the trial petition law and Supreme Court justice expansion bill, they stated, “We cannot shake hands with one hand while hiding a knife behind our back with the other.”
• The Blue House commented, “An opportunity for communication and co-governance was missed.”
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Is the National Assembly’s Runaway Train to Blame?

• Chosun Ilbo criticized in an editorial, “It’s because of the Democratic Party’s runaway National Assembly.”
• Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party Leader) reportedly faced strong backlash from senior party members when he tried to attend the presidential luncheon. Chosun Ilbo analyzed, “(Jang) sparked internal backlash by fixating on elevating his status through a meeting with the president.”
• Jeon Han-gil (YouTuber) may have influenced the decision. Jeon lamented, “I’m going to Dongjak Police Station, while Jang Dong-hyeok goes to Cheong Wa Dae,” adding tearfully, “Shouldn’t he be rallying behind me instead of Cheong Wa Dae?”
• One People Power Party lawmaker said, “It’s humiliating to think that even a presidential luncheon is being scrapped just because ‘Yoon Again’ says so.” In a closed-door caucus meeting, criticism arose: “They should have confronted him directly.”
• The People Power Party plans to boycott the plenary session. The U.S. Investment Special Act also collapsed.
• The party appointed Lee Jung-hyun (former Saenuri Party Leader) as local election nominations committee chief—another ‘Yoon Again’ pick. She served as Senior Secretary for Political Affairs and Senior Secretary for Public Relations during Park Geun-hye’s administration.
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Trump’s New Card: “Buy American Coal.”.

• Donald Trump (U.S. President) mentioned South Korea, Japan, and India, stating, “We’ve reached trade agreements that will dramatically increase coal exports.”
• South Korea joined the Beyond Coal Alliance last November and declared it would reduce coal use. Increasing coal consumption is difficult, and while imports from other sources could be redirected to the U.S., most are already locked into long-term contracts.
• Seo Jin-kyo (GS&J Institute Director) said, “Realistically, South Korea could negotiate import substitution with major coal suppliers like Australia, similar to what Australia does.”
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Kim Ju-ae’s Designated Succession Phase.

• South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) analysis suggests Kim Jong-un (North Korean State Affairs Commissioner) may be preparing to transfer power to his daughter, Kim Ju-ae. While previously described as “in the midst of succession training,” the assessment now states she has entered the “designated succession phase.”
• Since late last year, North Korea has elevated Kim Ju-ae to a ceremonial status ranking second in protocol hierarchy.

Lee Jae-myung’s Attacker Linked to Ko Sung-kuk.

• It has been revealed that the terrorist involved in the January 2024 Gadeokdo assault had a phone call with far-right YouTuber Ko Sung-kuk (operator of Ko Sung-kuk TV).
• The National Intelligence Service also confirmed the terrorist visited Ko Sung-kuk TV.
• The terrorist is currently serving a 15-year prison sentence.

Deep Dive.

Prosecutorial Case Dismissal Rally Draws 87 Pro-Lee Lawmakers.

• It is a gathering calling for the suspension of all trials against Lee Jae-myung (President). More than half of the Democratic Party’s 162 lawmakers assembled.
• There are subtle tensions between pro-Lee and pro-Cheong factions. One attending lawmaker said, “We needed a unifying focus, and the case dismissal issue served that purpose.”

Was It a Myeong-Cheong Clash or a Min-Cheong Clash?

• Kang Deuk-gu (Democratic Party Supreme Council Member) posted and later deleted a Facebook post containing several clues.
• The vanished post’s keywords are threefold: First, Hong Ik-pyo (Blue House Political Affairs Chief) said the president also supports unification. Second, the idea is to act after local elections. Third, Kim Min-seok (Prime Minister) and the president seem to differ in their thinking.
• Though explained as “a post inconsistent with facts,” Hong Ik-pyo would not have fabricated statements. If true, Lee Jae-myung and Jeong Cheong-rae’s positions might not differ significantly.
• Son Won-je (Hankyoreh Columnist) analyzed, “The conflict’s nature is thicker between Min-Cheong (Kim Min-seok-Jeong Cheong-rae) than Myeong-Cheong (Lee Jae-myung-Jeong Cheong-rae).” The question arises: Was the pro-Lee faction’s backlash merely a proxy for Kim Min-seok’s power ambitions?
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Fandom Politics in the Name of Party Member Sovereignty.

• Park Young-hwan (Kyunghyang Shinmun Political Affairs Editor) pointed out, “The term ‘party member sovereignty’ itself is inappropriate.”
• “Party members have the right to intervene in a political party’s decision-making, but that right cannot be as absolute or exclusive as national sovereignty,” he argued.
• Jeong Cheong-rae (Democratic Party Leader) attempted to push through a merger with the Cho Kuk Innovation Party via a party member vote. He may have calculated that a one-member-one-vote system could enable his re-election.
• Park Young-hwan analyzed, “This is an attempt to recreate Lee Jae-myung’s success story by leveraging a ‘rights-based member fandom’ under the guise of ‘party member sovereignty.’” Lee Jae-myung consolidated party power during his leadership by increasing the value of rights-based member votes from 1/60 to 1/20 of delegates. Jeong Cheong-rae wants to emulate Lee Jae-myung, but fandom politics does not tolerate two suns.
• Park Young-hwan assessed, “The fandoms of Jeong Cheong-rae, Kim Eo-jun, and Yu Si-min have been overshadowed by the pro-Lee Jae-myung fandom, which has the backing of the current president.”
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“I’ll Do a Big One” Offer Met with “Create a Position.”.

• This is from the arrest warrant applications of Kang Sun-woo (Independent Lawmaker) and Kim Kyung (Seoul City Council Member).
• Kim Kyung told Kang Sun-woo’s aide, “I’ll do a big one,” to which the aide replied, “It’s customary to handle things financially.”
• After Kang Sun-woo received the report, he said, “I’ll think about it,” but a month later instructed, “Create a position.”
• The arrest motion for Kang Sun-woo has been submitted to the National Assembly plenary session. It is likely to be put to a vote after the Lunar New Year holiday.

Another Take.

News Factory Loses 20,000 Subscribers.

• It had 2.31 million subscribers on January 15, but dropped to 2.29 million by February 12.
• The Hankook Ilbo assessed, “Kim Eo-jun (CEO of Ddanzi Ilbo), once called the Democratic Party’s ‘shadow chieftain,’ saw his influence wane, compounded by public backlash from the ruling party.”
• “As the ‘New Lee Jae-myung’ faction solidified, Kim Eo-jun’s support for Jeong Cheong-rae (Democratic Party Leader) faced growing resistance, and the backlash is manifesting as a rejection of Kim,” the analysis continued.
• Pro-government commentators have also multiplied. There are evaluations that the influence of old-guard speakers like Kim Eo-jun and Yu Si-min (writer) has weakened.
• Kim Doo-il (YouTuber) analyzed, “Kim Eo-jun attempted a full-scale campaign to reclaim his role as a kingmaker by promoting Cho Kuk and Jeong Cheong-rae, but failed,” adding, “The era of Kim Eo-jun—the true architect who bolstered Jeong Cheong-rae—will rapidly decline with this failure.”
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1.22 Million More Needed by 2034.

• The economically active population will shrink starting in 2030. By 2034, those aged 65+ will account for 32% of the population. The Ministry of Employment and Labor analyzed that 1.22 million additional workers are needed to maintain a 2.0% economic growth rate.
• Care and health service roles will increase by 230,000 and 220,000 respectively, while retail sales positions will decrease by 200,000.
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To Those Who Think “If I Hold Out, It’ll Work Itself Out.”.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) posted this on X early this morning.
• “A normal society’s core is ensuring rule-abiding citizens don’t lose out, and rule-breakers can’t profit. In a democracy, fairness is the engine of growth and progress.”
• The government is likely to pressure multiple-homeowners by tightening their loans.
• “Is it fair to give additional loan extension benefits to those who still hold multiple homes despite being given opportunities like reduced transfer taxes?”
• According to yesterday’s released heavy transfer tax guidelines, multiple-homeowners must finalize contracts by May 9. Pre-contracts don’t count.
• Homes with tenants have been granted a deferred occupancy obligation until November 2028.
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Kim Yo-jong: “Relieved by Jeong Seong-rak’s Regret.”.

• Jeong Seong-rak (Unification Minister) has received an official response for apologizing to North Korea over the drone incursion. Though the drone was sent by civilians and not the government’s fault, this was the first official apology.
• Kim Yo-jong (North Korean Party Vice Department Director) calling it “relieving that regret was officially expressed” is a positive signal.
• However, Kim Yo-jong stated, “We have no interest in who the mastermind behind the anti-republic drone intrusion is, whether it’s an individual or a civilian group,” adding, “What we take issue with is the fact that the grave sovereignty violation of unauthorized intrusion into our airspace originated from South Korea.”

The Fix.

A $6 Billion Investment to Boost Household Income by $900 Million.

• It is the ambitious challenge of Eric Adams (New York City Mayor).
• Childcare costs in New York average around $2,000 per month per child. Adams has decided to provide free childcare for children under five, regardless of income, for over five days a week. The budget: $6 billion annually.
• Expected effects? If 14,200 mothers enter the workforce, their increased income would amount to $900 million. It doesn’t end there. Reduced childcare costs will boost consumption. Women will seek more challenging jobs, leading to regional economic revitalization. It’s a policy that nurtures two generations: parents and children.
• What about South Korea? Higher education levels correlate with fewer children. Women’s careers and childbirth clash.
• Yang Hyun-ah (Seoul National University Professor) emphasized, “Policies that help educated women and men achieve both careers and families are South Korea’s lifeline.”
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ICYMI.

Koo Kwang-mo Wins Inheritance Lawsuit.

• Koo Kwang-mo (LG Chairman) has won the inheritance dispute. Koo Yeon-kyung (LG Welfare Foundation Representative), Koo Kwang-mo’s sister, and others claimed there was no evidence that Koo Bon-moo (former LG Chairman) intended to pass management assets to Koo Kwang-mo, but their argument was rejected.
• Koo Bon-moo left no will. According to inheritance law, if there is no will, the spouse inherits one-third, and the remaining two-thirds are divided equally among the three siblings.
• The court ruled, “It appears Koo Bon-moo’s notes existed.”
• Koo Bon-moo’s inheritance assets amounted to approximately 2 trillion won. Following his intentions, Koo Kwang-mo received 1.5 trillion won, while the remaining 500 billion won was divided among the three siblings.
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Chun Doo-hwan’s Memoir Confirmed as False.

• The Supreme Court’s final ruling requires Chun Doo-hwan’s son, Chun Jae-guk, to pay 70 million won in damages to the family of Bishop Jo Bio.
• Chun Doo-hwan’s memoir, which labeled the May 18 Gwangju Democratization Movement a riot and claimed North Korean agents participated, cannot be published or distributed.

Only I Don’t Have a Cat.

• Not quite. 29.2% of citizens raise pets, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs survey.
• Dogs outnumber cats. 23.5% responded they raise dogs, 4.2% cats. Fish account for 1.2%.
• The monthly cost to raise one pet is 121,000 won. Feed and snacks cost 40,000 won, grooming and hygiene management 21,000 won, and veterinary bills 37,000 won.
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Why Choi Eun-soon Paid 1.3 Billion Won in Taxes—Belatedly.

• Because her real estate was handed over for public auction. Choi Eun-soon (Yoon Suk-yeol’s mother-in-law) refused to pay 2.5 billion won in surcharges. She is the top delinquent in surcharge payments.
• Gyeonggi Province and Seongnam City commissioned the Korea Asset Management Corporation to auction Choi Eun-soon’s property, and a public auction notice was posted on the 4th of this month. The appraised value of the building is 8 billion won.
• It is customary to cancel the auction if more than half is paid. If the remaining amount is not paid in full, the auction process can be restarted.
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Half the Hikers on Mountains These Days Are Foreigners.

• Among the 121,444 visitors to Bukhansan Mountain Tourist Center last year, 8,677 were foreigners.
• At urban hiking centers, you can rent hiking boots, trekking poles, crampons, etc., for 2,000–5,000 won.
• Seoul’s mountains have strong cellphone reception, well-maintained trails, and are close to subway stations. A round trip takes 2–3 hours—perfect for a Korean-style hike. The classic route: eat kimbap at the summit, then head down for a glass of makgeolli. Many foreigners also enjoy makgeolli and pajeon as post-hike favorites.
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Worth Reading.

Jang Dong-hyeok Is the Avatar of the Hardline Base.

• Sung Han-yong (Senior Reporter, Hankyeoreh) assessed, “There’s no real plan or strategy to speak of.”
• “The hardline party members and supporters don’t move by reason but by emotion, not by logic but by instinct. Even if the outcome is wrong, they don’t take responsibility. Korean politics will remain unpredictable for the time being.”
• The Democratic Party is equally swayed by its hardline base, but there’s a difference: the Democratic Party’s hardliners’ main enemy is the People Power Party, while the People Power Party’s hardliners hate Han Dong-hoon more than the Democratic Party.
• “Will Jang Dong-hyeok be able to cut ties with Yoon Suk-yeol? Can he withstand pressure from Ko Sung-kuk and Jeon Han-gil? It’ll be difficult.”

The People Power Party’s Fourth Failure.

• First, they should have immediately joined the vote to lift martial law after its declaration.
• Second, they should have nominated a candidate who distanced himself from Yoon Suk-yeol in the presidential election and called for restoring conservative values.
• Third, they should have transformed into a rational conservative party.
• After three failures, Jang Dong-hyeok crossed the point of no return by expelling Han Dong-hoon.
• Lee Jun-hee (Hankook Ilbo Advisor) analyzed, “The People Power Party under Jang Dong-hyeok is the sum of compounded failures.”
• Lee Jae-myung summoning Jang Dong-hyeok has two effects: First, it frames Jeong Cheong-rae’s opponent as Jang Dong-hyeok, not Lee Jae-myung. Second, it creates the effect that Jang Dong-hyeok is doing well and should continue as he is.
• Lee Jun-hee evaluated, “Depending on the perspective, it’s a mockery of the Jang Dong-hyeok system.”
• Related Link.

A Giant Cart? No Need to Fear.

• Hearing news of 30,000 layoffs at Amazon makes one think, “This was inevitable,” yet Amazon still employs over 1.5 million people.
• Lee Jae-myung (President)’s warning of “the inevitable end of the world” or Hyundai Motor Union’s resistance—“Not even a single unit”—are premature.
• Hyundai’s factories already have high automation rates and highly skilled workers. Even if Atlas is exceptional, it’s not yet capable of replacing Hyundai’s workforce. The U.S. and South Korea differ in worker skill levels.
• Lee Sang-heon (ILO Employment Policy Director) noted, “We must overcome the binary thinking of victory and defeat.” This isn’t an alien invasion scenario.
• First, robots don’t replace human labor one-to-one. Jobs per unit may decrease, but increased production could create more jobs.
• Second, robots should be deployed first in dangerous or strenuous environments.
• Third, many jobs still require human skill. We must redefine skill frameworks.
• Fourth, we must continue creating quality jobs. In the long term, robots might handle care work.
• “Fear prevents us from seeing things as they truly are,” a line from the novel Don Quixote.
• It’s time to start discussing how to coexist with robots.
• Related Link.