Invest More in the U.S., Trump’s Changing Tune.

• TSMC has decided to invest an additional $250 billion in the U.S. The U.S. has lowered its reciprocal tariffs on Taiwan to 15%.
• The total package Taiwan has committed to invest in the U.S. amounts to $500 billion.
• Some analyses suggest this accounts for the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The goal is to produce 40% of total output in the U.S.
• Howard Lutnick (U.S. Secretary of Commerce) said, “This could also affect Korean semiconductor companies.” The message is: “They must either pay 100% tariffs or choose to build production facilities in the U.S.”
• Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are each proceeding with investments worth $37 billion and $3.9 billion in Texas and Indiana, respectively.
• Some analyses suggest Trump’s Tariff War Season 2 has begun. A 100% tariff is likely bluffing. He also posted on Truth Social, “The Tariff King.”
• Related Link.

Trump to Impose Tariffs on Greenland Troop-Deploying Nations.

• Donald Trump (U.S. President) is pressuring Greenland.
• He plans to impose 10% tariffs starting next month on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland—countries that have deployed or expressed intent to deploy troops to Greenland—and raise them to 25% from June.
• Trump once told the New York Times, “International law doesn’t matter.” “My morality and my thinking are the only things that can stop me,” he added.

What Yoon Suk-yeol’s 5-Year Sentence Signifies.

• “The nature of the crime is extremely grave.”
• He smirked when the special prosecution requested a death sentence during the rebellion trial, but his expression hardened when sentenced to five years in prison for obstructing arrest.
• It was the first ruling to declare the emergency martial law illegal, and the rebellion trial is likely to reach the same conclusion. Yoon Suk-yeol (former president) might have trusted Judge Ji-gwi-yeon (Seoul Central District Court) but later faced a harsh reality check.
• The court noted, “The Constitution and Martial Law Act were violated,” and “lawful investigations were obstructed while presidential security officers were militarized.”
• The pre-martial law State Council meeting was deemed unlawful, and the post-martial law declaration was judged illegal. More rulings are pending, and the same logic is likely to apply.
• Related Link.

What Matters Now.

Second Special Prosecutors Act Passes.

• 172 votes in favor, 2 against.
• All People Power Party lawmakers walked out.

“Nuclear Power Plants Are Safe” Gains Ground.

• 54% agreed that “new nuclear plants should be built,” while 25% opposed it.
• Compared to past surveys, in 1991, only 23% said “they are safe.” This rose to 32% in 2017, jumped to 64% in 2025, and stood at 63% this year.
• The poll was conducted by Gallup Korea.
• President Yoon’s approval rating is 58%, while the Democratic Party and People Power Party stand at 41% and 24%, respectively.
• Related Link.

The Corruption Investigation Office’s Victory.

• The court recognized the Corruption Investigation Office’s investigation as lawful. It also ruled that the office’s warrant shopping was legal.
• Yoon Suk-yeol (former president) argued that rebellion charges fall outside the Corruption Investigation Office’s jurisdiction. He insisted the arrest warrant was illegal and refused to accept the rebellion trial. The arrest warrant obstruction trial rejected all of Yoon’s claims.
• The Corruption Investigation Office has been inconspicuous for five years. It spent 80 billion won but secured only six indictments. Even its eligibility requirements for prosecutors were lowered from 10 to 5 years of legal practice—yet it remains unpopular among legal professionals. Will this ruling revive the office?
• Related Link.

Yoon Suk-yeol and Kim Keon-hee’s 11 Trials.

• Next ruling: Kim Keon-hee’s Chanel bag case on the 28th. Kim is accused of receiving 82.93 million won in bribes from Jeon Sung-bae (Geonjin Beopsa).
• Kim also faces charges of commissioning free public opinion polls from Myeong Tae-gyun. The Deutsche Motors stock manipulation trial has also begun.

Deep Dive.

“No Escaping the Tide of the Times.”.

• “The President is fully aware of this.” These were the words of Lee Jae-myung (Democratic Party Leader) after meeting Yoon Suk-yeol (President).
• According to Chosun Ilbo, during a private meeting, Yoon stated in essence that all investigative powers cannot be handed over to the police. He argued that supplementary investigative authority should be granted to the prosecution.
• Lee Jae-myung remarked, “The government’s proposal is just a draft, and the authority and responsibility for prosecutorial reform lie with the National Assembly.”
• A ruling party official warned, “If tensions between the party and the Blue House continue to accumulate, there’s no telling when or how they might explode.”
• Lee Jae-myung plans to push again for a one-person, one-vote system.
• Related Link.

Lee Hye-hoon’s Confirmation Hearing May Be Scrapped Today.

• The People Power Party is likely to boycott due to insufficient document submission. Their stance is that she is a subject of investigation, not verification.
• The Democratic Party may unilaterally push ahead with the hearing.
• For the Blue House, this is a win-win. If she passes, they can emphasize a pragmatic government image; even if she fails, they have no loss if she served to trigger conservative infighting.
• Chosun Ilbo assessed that Lee Hye-hoon (Minister of Planning and Budget nominee) has an unusually strong will to power. She inherited the family business of politics as a daughter-in-law in a political dynasty. Most of her assets were gifted by her mother-in-law.
• Only 16% of the public deemed Lee Hye-hoon qualified in a Gallup Korea poll.
• Lim Ee-jaa (National Assembly Strategy and Finance Committee Chair) remarked, “Trample the National Assembly, carry Lee Hye-hoon on your back or put her in a bridal sedan—whatever you choose, the consequences are solely the president’s responsibility.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

KOSPI Nears 5,000 Mark Today.

• Closed at 4,840.74 last Friday.
• 3.3% remains to break the 5,000 threshold.
• Market cap surpassed the symbolic 4,000 trillion won at 4,004.879 trillion won.
• The third Commercial Act revision is also pending passage.

Another Take.

Will Han Dong-hoon Seek a Retrial?

• “Weren’t they the ones who formed the leadership as a ‘single team’? I don’t understand why they’re fighting this hard.” These were the words of a People Power Party official.
• Looking at the current atmosphere within the People Power Party, many criticize Han Dong-hoon (former People Power Party leader) for having many issues, but also point out that Jang Dong-hyeok’s (People Power Party leader) response has been excessive. If Han Dong-hoon had apologized for what needed apologizing and resolved it earlier, things might not have reached this point.
• If Han Dong-hoon does not request a retrial, the ball will be in Jang Dong-hyeok’s court. If he expels Han Dong-hoon? Jang Dong-hyeok’s burden will also grow.
• Han Dong-hoon posted a video resembling an apology on Facebook. “As a responsible politician who led the party, I feel deeply apologetic,” he said. Many evaluations say it lacked sincerity.
• Related Link.

Why Jang Dong-hyeok?

• Chosun Ilbo analyzed, “The strategy is to absorb 20% hardline conservatives as a support base and completely take over the People Power Party.”
• A People Power Party official said, “He’s likely considering not just local elections but also the 2030 presidential race.”
• Jang Dong-hyeok began a hunger strike on the 15th, demanding special prosecutors for nomination irregularities and the Unification Church scandal.
• Related Link.

40 Trillion Won Pledged for Daejeon-Chungnam and Gwangju-Jeonnam Megacities.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) said, “If they don’t integrate this time, support will be so massive they’ll regret it for years.”
• He did not mention funding sources.
• The People Power Party is protesting, calling it “hasty electoral integration.”
• There are widespread speculations that Kang Hoon-sik (Blue House Chief of Staff) will run for the Daejeon-Chungnam mayoral post. Kim Yong-beom (Blue House Policy Chief) is being floated for Gwangju-Jeonnam.
• Dae-gu-Gyeongbuk integration is also under discussion.

South Korea Buys Most U.S. Stocks.

• South Korea purchased $66.3 billion worth of U.S. stocks cumulatively through November last year.
• This includes both individual and institutional investors.
• Norway ranked second with $63.9 billion, followed by Singapore in third with $59.3 billion.

Nobel Prize Offered, But Support Unmoved.

• María Corina Machado (Venezuelan opposition leader) visited the White House to present Trump with her Nobel Prize medal.
• She could hand over the medal but not the Nobel Prize itself. Trump accepted it, posed for a commemorative photo, and merely remarked, “A wonderful gesture of mutual respect,” adding, “Thank you.”
• Trump continues to support Delcy Rodríguez (Venezuelan Vice President).
• Caroline Leavitt (White House spokesperson) stated, “Trump has not changed his existing assessment that Machado lacks sufficient support and respect to govern the country.”

Drone Suspects Linked to Yoon Suk-yeol’s Presidential Office.

• Two individuals who worked as news monitoring agents in the Yoon Suk-yeol government’s spokesperson’s office have turned themselves in.
• One built the drone, the other flew it. They deny conspiracy charges. No mastermind has been identified.
• The two are university seniors and juniors who also co-founded a conservative youth group.

The Fix.

Elderly-Crafted ‘Kind Pizzas’.

• It’s a senior employment project supported by Geumcheon District.
• Selected for the Korea Institute for Senior Human Resources Development program, it secured 69 million won in funding, with Geumcheon District covering 200 million won in building deposit.
• Fourteen seniors work in two-person shifts. They work 2–3 days a week, averaging five hours daily, earning 500,000–600,000 won monthly.

Why Filipino Domestic Workers Buy Stablecoins.

• They can send money to their families in the Philippines without paying fees. With over 10 million Filipinos living abroad, the stablecoin ecosystem developed early—covering everything from utility bills to transportation costs.
• 2024 saw $38.3 billion in personal remittances to the Philippines, accounting for 8% of GDP. Projections suggest this figure will rise in 2025.
• Kang Hee-jung (Director of the East Asia Research Institute at Sogang University) analyzed, “This is the result of a structure where feminized labor migration and reliance on their remittances converge.” “It’s not an asset for investment but a social infrastructure essential for daily life.”
• Related Link.

Organ Donors Continue to Decline.

• Brain-dead organ donors numbered 515 in 2017, dropping to 370 last year.
• As of 2024, 54,789 patients await organ transplants.
• 3,096 patients died last year while waiting for transplants—8.5 patients per day lost their lives awaiting organs.

ICYMI.

Seven Reasons Behind the KOSPI Rally.

• Han Sang-chun’s (The Korea Economic Daily columnist) analysis.
• First, the Lee Jae-myung administration’s intentions worked.
• Second, Trump’s tariff shock wasn’t as severe as feared.
• Third, the U.S. economy wasn’t terrible.
• Fourth, Korea’s economic fundamentals remained solid.
• Fifth, above all, the semiconductor industry revived.
• Sixth, overcoming the rebellion became a source of energy.
• Seventh, positive news kept emerging. If the KOSPI enters the MSCI developed market index preliminary list in June, around 60 trillion won could flow in.
• Some argue the next target should be 10,000, but analysts note semiconductors and autos alone won’t suffice.
• Related Link.

Invest a Quarter Each in Korea, the U.S., China, and India.

• Park Hyun-joo (Chairman of Mirae Asset) in a Chosun Ilbo interview. The U.S. and China account for 27% and 17% of global GDP, respectively, and India is rising to create a tripartite structure. Including Korea, which has a strong manufacturing base, it’s advisable to divide investments equally.
• He advised focusing on high-performing sectors rather than overall indices, as AI drives the market.
• Semiconductors remain promising—it’s not too late to invest—but the growth potential of the space industry and physical AI is significant.
• The tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) is expected to boom. While investing in startups ties up capital for years, tokenizing investments increases liquidity. A new model could emerge to replace Bitcoin.
• He views the holding company system as a dilemma for the Korean economy, limiting growth investments. He proposed a three-tier governance structure—major shareholders, the board, and the CEO—with clear role divisions. Unlocking capital-raising opportunities while ensuring transparency is key.
• Real estate has peaked, according to him. Mirae Asset is indeed continuously selling its properties.
• Related Link.

South Korea’s Unhedged Dollar Assets Exposed to 25x FX Market Volatility.

• This is the IMF’s warning. It signals that exchange rate volatility risks are that significant.
• It refers to dollar-denominated assets held by private entities like pension funds and financial institutions that lack currency hedging.

Kim Jong-un Nearly Reciprocated the Visit.

• Yoon Geon-young (Democratic Party lawmaker) revealed this in the “Panmunjom Project.” After the 2018 Pyongyang Summit, a South Korean reciprocal visit nearly materialized but collapsed. This was the so-called North Korean Mountain Project.
• Accommodations were set at the Banyan Tree Hotel. Plans included a KTX ride to visit Samsung Electronics’ factory, lunch at Yeongdeungpo Times Square, and watching an art troupe performance at Gocheok Dome.
• However, it fell through the day before the announcement due to opposition from Workers’ Party Politburo members. They cited security and safety concerns, but Yoon Geon-young assessed, “It was compliance with U.S. pressure.” The implication was that North Korea–U.S. talks were more urgent.
• Related Link.

Hong Ra-hee Sells 2 Trillion Won Worth of Samsung Electronics Shares.

• She signed a contract to dispose of 15 million shares at 139,000 won each.
• Hong Ra-hee (Honorary Director of Leeum Museum) inherited an estate worth 7 trillion won from Lee Kun-hee (former Samsung Electronics Chairman). The inheritance tax she must pay is 3.1 trillion won.
• Related Link.

South Koreans Spend 80.3 Billion Won Monthly on AI Services.

• Analysis by HanKyung A-Cell Research Team.
• The amount increased from 300.5 billion won in the first half of last year to 448.5 billion won in the second half.
• This is the combined total for seven services including ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude.
• The average payment per transaction is 46,000 won.
• ChatGPT accounts for 72%. Gemini and Claude each account for 11%.
• For reference, Netflix was at 75 billion won monthly as of 2024.
• Related Link.

End the Nuisance Marathon Before 10 AM.

• Mandated departure before 7:30 AM.
• Last year, 142 marathon events were held in Seoul.

Half-Price ChatGPT Plan Emerges.

• Requires watching ads. ‘ChatGPT Go’ offers 10x higher generation limits than the free version at half the price.
• Monthly subscription is $20 for Plus, but ‘Go’ costs $8 per month.
• Related Link.

Gadeokdo Airport Bid Fails Again.

• Hyundai Construction Consortium, selected as the preferred negotiator after four failed bids, withdrew from the project.
• Daewoo Construction Consortium submitted a sole bid, resulting in automatic disqualification—bids require at least two participants.
• The project could be reannounced or proceed via direct negotiation with Daewoo Construction.
• The site faces construction challenges, including potential ground subsidence, and a tight deadline.
• Chosun Ilbo’s editorial urged, “The courage to review fundamental causes must be mustered.”
• Related Link.

Worth Reading.

Yoon’s Apology.

• He is unlikely to fully apologize.
• JoongAng Sunday’s editorial emphasized, “Yoon must sincerely apologize and atone for the national regression, the chaos endured by all citizens, and the massive social costs incurred over the past year.”
• Related Link.

Do Korean Media and YouTube Political Commentary Differ?

• Traditional or modern?
• How should we view the enthusiasm for YouTube channels with far stronger biases from those who criticized mainstream media for being partial and fragmented?
• Lee Jun-ung (Professor at Seoul National University) pointed out, “The tragedy lies in how political commentary YouTube channels are failing in the same areas where traditional mainstream media previously failed—only more brutally.”
• His analysis adds, “The fact that both progressive and conservative channels fail in similar ways adds a grandeur to this tragedy.”
• Related Link.

Why the People Power Party Keeps Sabotaging Itself.

• There’s a sentiment that even if it means losing to the Democratic Party, Oh Se-hoon (Seoul Mayor) is unacceptable.
• Similarly, there’s also a sentiment that Ahn Cheol-soo (People Power Party lawmaker) is unacceptable.
• Sung Han-yong (Senior Reporter at Hankyoreh) analyzed the People Power Party’s subtraction politics as being driven by hatred, jealousy, and projection.
• First, humans are naturally inclined to feel hatred and fear toward other tribes.
• Second, losing to the other side is tolerable, but losing to a rival within the same side is unbearable.
• Third, People Power Party supporters dislike Han Dong-hoon while believing he dislikes them.
• Even if Na Kyung-won (People Power Party lawmaker) runs for Seoul mayor, her chances of winning are slim.
• Looking back, subtraction politics only stops when it reaches its bitter end.
• Related Link.

Goseong-guk Ruined Yoon Suk-yeol—Could Jang Dong-hyeok Be Next?

• “Goseong-guk (political commentator) is the main culprit behind the United Future Party’s collapse. We followed his advice and it backfired spectacularly,” analyzed Park Won-seok (former Justice Party lawmaker).
• Goseong-guk was Yoon Suk-yeol’s mentor. Three days after the emergency martial law declaration, on December 6, Yoon called Goseong-guk five times. His insistence on clinging to the “enlightenment decree” rhetoric until the end likely followed Goseong-guk’s counsel.
• Kang Jun-man (professor at Jeonbuk National University) suggests, “Goseong-guk’s three-strike conservative-bashing home run might succeed.” His analysis: “People Power Party lawmakers remain silent about the party’s conservative shift, fearing Red Guard-style personal attacks from YouTubers.”
• Related Link.