“Would a Fool Like Me Stage a Coup?” Yoon’s Sentencing Today.

• It is a historic day.
• The leader of an insurrection can only receive the death penalty or life imprisonment. The special prosecutors requested the death penalty during the final hearing.
• Yoon Seok-yeol has maintained that it was a “peaceful public message martial law,” asking, “Does history even record insurrections that last a few hours?” In the trial’s final stages, he argued, “How could such a fool stage a personal coup? One capable of a coup must be quick-witted.”
• There are three key points.
• First, was it an insurrection? The focus is whether there was a riot aimed at disrupting the constitutional order. The trials of Han Duck-soo (former Prime Minister) and Lee Sang-min (former Minister of the Interior and Safety) have already ruled that the martial law declaration constituted an insurrection.
• Second, was the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials’ (CIOHO) investigation lawful? Insurrection is not originally within the CIOHO’s jurisdiction, but it was included as a related crime of abuse of power.
• Third, are there grounds for leniency? Since there has been no repentance, there is no reason for leniency.
• In an MBC poll, 32% of respondents expected the death penalty, while 43% anticipated life imprisonment. In an editorial, The Hankyoreh warned, “The entire nation is watching the judiciary’s resolve to uphold the Constitution.”
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What Matters Now.

President’s Holiday X Politics.

• “Politicians not only tolerate multi-homeowner privileges but also encourage speculation, and even engage in conflicts of interest by seeking excess profits from multiple properties,” it pointed out.
• “If one must single out and condemn social evils, the blame should fall on the politicians who created and implemented these harmful systems,” it emphasized.
• The remark was aimed at Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party leader), who owns six properties. Jang responded, “It is pathetic and concerning to see multi-homeowners being demonized as social evils.”
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Real Estate Sentiment Shifts.

• An MBC poll found 52% believe the government’s real estate policies will be effective.
• An SBS poll showed 57% think “the heavy transfer tax on multiple homeowners will work.”
• The Korea Daily assessed, “Given that real estate has long been seen as the Democratic Party’s Achilles’ heel, this is an unusual result.” Their analysis: “The president is leading the issue, and public opinion is responding.”
• Lee Jae-muk (Hankuk University of Foreign Studies professor) evaluated, “The president’s strategy of specifically targeting multiple homeowners has proven effective.”
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Real Estate Follow-up Measures: RTI Consideration.

• Raising the threshold for rental business loans.
• The government is reviewing the reapplication of RTI (Rental Income-to-Interest Ratio).
• Rental business loans are extended annually after 3–5-year terms.
• Applying RTI would require regulated areas to meet 1.5x coverage, other areas 1.25x, to qualify.
• If annual interest costs 10 million won, rental income must exceed 15 million won in regulated zones.

Japan Begins First-Instalment Investment in the U.S.

• Japan agreed to invest $550 billion, with an initial $36 billion allocated to an LNG power plant in Ohio. The project is valued at $33 billion.
• Investments will also flow into a crude oil export facility in Texas and a diamond production facility in Georgia, worth $2 billion and $600 million respectively.
• Howard Lutnick (U.S. Secretary of Commerce) stated, “Japan provides the capital, infrastructure is built in the U.S.—Japan gains profits, America secures strategic assets.” Whether Japan will actually reap profits remains questionable.
• The New York Times posed a straightforward question: Would Japan have invested without tariff threats? The implication is no.
• South Korea is next in line. Trump is pressuring with threats to raise tariffs to 25%.
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“May Trust Melt Like the Waters of the Taedong River.”.

• Jeong Dong-young (Unification Minister) held a press conference on the final day of the holiday, apologizing again for the North Korean drone incursion.
• He apologized not only for the civilian drone incursion but also for the drone incursion sent by the Yoon Suk-yeol government. It was an official government statement expressing “formal regret.”
• The Ministry of National Defense announced, “We are reviewing measures to partially restore the September 19 military agreement, including the establishment of no-fly zones.”
• Jeong’s repeated messages to North Korea are intended to positively influence the upcoming Workers’ Party of Korea congress. The Hankyoreh analyzed, “It is too early to expect immediate official-public dialogue.”

Deep Dive.

Constitutional Court vs. Supreme Court: The Trial Appeal System Clash.

• The Constitutional Court maintains that a trial appeal system can be introduced without constitutional revision.
• The Supreme Court insists the Constitutional Court must not intervene in judicial proceedings.
• The Constitutional Court first released a Q&A-style document. It argued, “It is difficult to find grounds that a trial appeal would be unconstitutional.” Its stance: “While cases may surge initially, they are expected to decrease once the system stabilizes.”
• The Supreme Court also issued a rebuttal. It claimed, “If the Constitutional Court directly intervenes in specific trial outcomes, judicial proceedings may not remain free from political influence.” It described the proposal as “effectively introducing a fourth trial tier” and warned, “It would lead to false hope and litigation hell.”

“A Man Like My Alter Ego” Kim Yong’s Book Celebration.

• Kim Yong (former Democratic Research Institute deputy director) published a book titled ‘The Usefulness of a President.’ The celebration held at the National Assembly Members’ Office Building was attended by Woo Won-shik (National Assembly Speaker) and Song Young-gil (Democratic Party leader), among 200 others.
• Kim Yong is a close aide whom Lee Jae-myung (president) once called “a man like my alter ego.” Convicted of receiving illegal election funds from a Seongdong developer, he was sentenced to five years in prison at both the first and second trials but remains free on bail. Rumors suggest he may run in a by-election.
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Song Young-gil Returns: Will He Run in Gyeyang?.

• Originally Song Young-gil’s (former Democratic Party leader) constituency. He served five terms in Gyeyang.
• He stepped down after the 2022 election defeat while serving as party leader. He later gave up his seat to run for Seoul mayor but lost. That position was won by Lee Jae-myung, who later became party leader and president.
• After losing the mayoral race, Song was imprisoned in the party convention envelope scandal but acquitted on appeal.
• He applies for reinstatement to the Democratic Party today.
• There were rumors that Kim Nam-joon (Blue House spokesperson) was eyeing Gyeyang, but Song’s return adds uncertainty. Song has already moved his residence to Gyeyang.
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Jang Dong-hyeok’s Choice?

• What message will the People Power Party send after Yoon’s sentencing today?
• Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party leader) drew a line, saying, “What matters more than severance is transition.” He is likely to cling to ‘Yoon Again’ until the end.
• Names like ‘Democratic Republican Party’ are being floated for the party’s new name.
• “This election feels like one we want to give up on,” said Han Ki-ho (People Power Party lawmaker) in a Telegram group chat with fellow party members.
• The Korea Daily editorialized, “This is the last chance to stop the freefall,” asking, “What could possibly be more important than shedding the label of a ‘rebellion party’?”
• The Chosun Ilbo also noted in an editorial, “Only the People Power Party leadership seems unaware that events like a name change won’t win back the public’s cold hearts.”
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Self-Reporting Discounts? The Leniency System’s Flaw.

• Leniency is a self-reporting reduction system. The first company to report is exempt from fines, the second receives a 50% reduction.
• The Fair Trade Commission imposed 4.038 trillion won in fines on CJ CheilJedang, Samyang, and Daehan for colluding on sugar prices. In practice, the fines are likely to be halved under the leniency system.
• Collusion cases are often hard to detect without whistleblowers, but critics argue that leading colluding firms should not receive reduced fines. Yoon Joon-byeong (Democratic Party lawmaker) proposed an amendment to the Fair Trade Act.
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Another Take.

Why Even Kim Eo-jun Couldn’t Unite Them.

• There were claims that the ‘New Lee Jae-myung’ and traditional Democratic Party supporters are distinct.
• Lee Dong-hyung (YouTuber) pointed out, “That’s why even Kim Eo-jun and Yu Si-min couldn’t achieve unification.”
• A Democratic Party lawmaker interviewed by JoongAng Ilbo also noted, “The core mainstream of the Democratic Party is shifting from pro-Moon to pro-Lee, with the ‘New Lee Jae-myung’ trend leading the charge.”
• In pro-Moon communities like Clien, there are movements criticizing the ‘New Lee Jae-myung’ by mockingly calling him ‘New Watermelon.’
• On DC Inside’s Lee Jae-myung Gallery, counterattacks emerge: “Those who shudder at Moon Jae-in and Cho Kuk’s incompetent policies are the ‘New Lee Jae-myung.’”
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AI: Not Coding, but an Electricity War.

• Kim Yong-beom (Blue House Policy Secretary) left this post on Facebook.
• “AI competitiveness depends on how much computational power and electricity we can secure. This is the turning point that will determine whether we remain an ‘intelligence-importing nation’ or leap forward as an ‘intelligence-producing nation.’”
• When Korea exports HBM, NVIDIA makes graphics cards and installs them in overseas data centers. What about Korea? We might end up selling only components and importing the AI services created from them to use.
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It’s Not Just Semiconductors That Are in Short Supply.

• Controversy has erupted over the Yongin semiconductor cluster, but the scattered computing centers nationwide are also massive.
• Samsung Electronics and SK Telecom have committed $65 billion in investments by 2027, requiring 3GW of power by 2030.
• Data centers in Jeollanam-do and Gangwon will need 3GW and 1GW respectively.
• Universities like Seoul National University and POSTECH are already struggling to power their servers.
• According to the 11th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply, the renewable energy target by 2030 is 78.0GW, but cumulative installations by 2024 stand at only 26.24GW.

Kevin Warsh’s Productive Dovishness.

• Kevin Warsh (Federal Reserve Chair nominee) has been a principled figure. He has argued that asset bubbles must be removed and the Fed’s excessive market interventions reduced, even if short-term pain follows.
• Many observers considered Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh unexpected.
• Analysis suggests Kevin Warsh—once an inflation hawk—has shifted toward “productive dovishness.” Though liquidity is already abundant, today’s inflation differs from past crises. If the AI revolution boosts productivity, inflation need not be feared.
• Interest rates may fall, but liquidity could tighten.
• Oh Keon-young (Shinhan Premier Pathfinder head) projected, “Given the changing circumstances, I lean toward the possibility of flexible policy.”
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Manufacturing à la Carte Strategy.

• Taiwan’s TSMC has served as an external R&D center for Apple and NVIDIA.
• Lee In-yeol (Chosun Ilbo editorial writer) analyzed that TSMC’s à la carte strategy is becoming the key to Korean manufacturing.
• L’Oréal and Estée Lauder receive Cosmax’s products as OBM (Original Brand Manufacturing) and sell them.
• Fanco also supplies products to Uniqlo.
• TKG Taekwang and Changshin INC are Nike’s partners, while Simone is a partner of Coach and DKNY.
• Lee In-yeol emphasized, “There are no sunset industries, only outdated strategies.” “We must reject being mere ‘factories’ that passively receive orders and transform into ‘kitchens’ that design solutions. The ‘manufacturing à la carte’ strategy deserves attention,” he argued.
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DeepSeek V4 Shock Looming?

• Following last year’s DeepSeek R1, V4 is set for release.
• Analysts suggest it could rival ChatGPT-5 and Gemini 3.0 Pro.
• The key issue is cost. While U.S. tech giants pour HBM into the AI race,
• China is crafting a new competitive landscape.
• Observations indicate DeepSeek V4 could handle 1 trillion parameters and 1 million tokens.
• ByteDance’s Sigdanse 2.0 is also sparking heated debate.
• A two-line prompt by Lurely Robinson (director) generated a Tom Cruise vs. Brad Pitt fight scene
• that looks like a real movie clip.
• “Maybe the end is nigh for us,” quipped Let Reese (screenwriter),
• and it’s no joke.
• Speculation grows that the DeepSeek shockwave will expand into multimodal territory.
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Why a 50% Surge in Cervical Disc Patients Over 70?

• Smartphones are likely the main culprit. Cases rose from 120,000 in 2016 to 180,000 in 2024.
• The elderly population grew, but prevalence also increased from 3.1% to 3.3%. For those in their 80s, it rose from 1.7% to 2.0%.
• Smartphone ownership among those over 70 jumped from 17.6% to 73.0%.

The Fix.

We Need a Lee Jae-myung Care System.

• In Germany, the government covers all costs if medical expenses exceed 2% of household income—leaving no reason to subscribe to private insurance.
• Oh Geun-ho (co-representative of ‘Welfare State I Create’) proposed, “Let’s create a world where South Koreans worry no more than 1 million won annually for hospital bills.”
• Oh Geun-ho emphasized, “We need policy agendas that let people truly feel this is their Korea.” With rising elderly households, caregiving has become a pressing challenge, and community-based integrated care is desperately needed. Oh Geun-ho stressed, “It’s possible if there’s the will.”
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Caregiving Costs Scarier Than Medical Bills.

• There are already over 1 million elderly requiring caregiving, according to some analyses.
• Kim Dae-hyun (Professor at Georgetown University, USA) presented research estimating that 140,000 elderly aged 65+—15% of the population—are homebound due to mobility issues.
• As of 2024, 350,000 are hospitalized in nursing care facilities, while approximately 710,000 receive family caregiving at home.
• Caregivers require no national certification. Anyone can do it, but 24-hour care costs around 3.7 million won monthly; university hospitals demand over 4 million won. Most caregivers are over 65.
• The term “caregiving bankruptcy” is now emerging.
• Jeong Hyung-seon (Professor at Yonsei University College of Medicine) called caregiving a “national issue,” urging, “The government must intervene to alleviate this burden.”
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The End of the Oil Era, The Dawn of Energy Manufacturing.

• China has declared itself an “Electrostate” and is accelerating its energy transition.
• Mass production of Chinese solar panels and batteries is creating a “China Subsidy” effect, lowering global energy transition costs.
• Anchor Group analyzed, “We are moving from the era of energy extraction to the era of energy manufacturing.”
• As of late last year, China’s wind and solar power capacity reached 1.8 billion kW. Its electricity consumption: 10 trillion kWh—over double that of the U.S. The key is that it is offsetting rising power demand with renewable energy.
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ICYMI.

Warren Buffett Buys Stake in the New York Times.

• Berkshire Hathaway’s purchase of New York Times shares is worth $351.7 million.
• Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway board chair) stepped down as CEO last year and now serves as chair.
• Apple shares were sold. Still, it remains Apple’s largest shareholder, holding $62 billion worth.
• Berkshire Hathaway’s cash reserves exceed $350 billion. It is reducing stocks and increasing cash.
• The New York Times had 12.78 million paid subscribers as of last year’s end. Last year’s revenue was $1.95 billion, with an operating profit of $430 million.
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Spinoza Never Promised to Plant an Apple Tree.

• It originates from a 1944 letter by Karl Ratz (pastor) to colleagues: “We must certainly follow Luther’s words, even if the world ends tomorrow, we wish to plant an apple tree today.”
• Why did this obscure phrase become attributed to Spinoza in Korea?
• Park Kang-su (Hankyoreh journalist) traces it to a 1962 Chosun Ilbo column. The original text reads:
• “Even if the world ends, I will plant an apple tree today”—attributed to Spinoza or someone, but obviously not because he craved apples.”
• Two years later, on Arbor Day, Chosun Ilbo repeated, “The Western philosopher Spinoza once said, ‘Even if the world ends tomorrow, I will plant an apple tree today,’” sparking a wave of citations.
• Kyunghyang Shinmun (1966), Dong-A Ilbo (1967), Maeil Business Newspaper (1969), and others perpetuated the baseless “fact.”
• Conclusion: No evidence exists that Spinoza ever said anything about planting apple trees. Park Kang-su’s column title: “Did Chosun Ilbo Plant It?”
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Half of Incheon Airport Passengers Drive.

• Last year, private cars accounted for 45.2% of access modes.
• Buses were 18.5%, taxis 11.1%, and rail 14.1%.
• Toll fees have decreased while bus fares have risen. The airport highway toll to Seoul dropped from 6,300 won to 3,200 won, and the Incheon-bound toll fell from 3,200 won to 1,900 won.
• Parking fees have been frozen for a decade. Long-term parking costs just 9,000 won per day.
• Airport buses increased by 3,000–4,000 won, now costing 17,000–18,000 won to Seoul. For a family of four, round-trip bus fares alone approach 140,000 won.
• Incheon Airport’s parking lots can hold 51,401 vehicles but are perpetually full.
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“Show Us Greatness.”.

• Jensen Huang (NVIDIA CEO) said this while sharing chicken and beer with SK Hynix engineers. “We are one team,” he also remarked.
• According to The Korean Economic Daily, NVIDIA has allocated over 55% of this year’s volume (HBM3E·HBM4) to SK Hynix. Samsung Electronics holds around mid-to-late 20%, while Micron accounts for approximately 20%.
• Since Samsung Electronics launched HBM4 first, the distribution could shift.
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Worth Reading.

Why Still Choose Medical School Over SK Hynix?

• SK Hynix paid a 2,964% performance bonus—enough to supposedly deter the medical school rush.
• Yet when asked to choose between a semiconductor contract program and medical school with the same grades, the preference for medical school remains strong.
• Only 6.5% of Korean companies adopt profit-sharing systems. Most are large firms, and those with unions have slightly higher rates: 43.8% of companies with 300+ employees, 52.8% of unionized firms.
• The economic incentive still lags behind medical school.
• Lim Ji-sun (Kyunghyang Shinmun Business Editor) noted, “It’s time to move beyond a corporate reality where only risks are shared, not profits.”
• Related Link.

Why Class-Action Lawsuits Are Still Not Possible.

• If there are 100 victims, all 100 must participate in the lawsuit to receive compensation. In the U.S.? One plaintiff’s victory grants equal compensation for identical damages.
• Among OECD’s 38 nations, 35 have class-action systems. Turkey and Switzerland among the remaining three have similar frameworks—leaving South Korea as the sole exception.
• Bills keep being proposed, but the National Assembly lacks resolve.
• Lee Jung-soo (Secretary-General of the Korean Consumer Organizations Association) argued, “Though harm occurs collectively, consumers lack collective redress mechanisms.” He dismissed concerns about frivolous lawsuits and economic disruption as excuses, insisting, “Immediate adoption is urgent.”
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What If Chun Doo-hwan Had Died in Prison?

• Did Yoon Suk-yeol stage a coup?
• Seong Han-yong (senior Hankyoreh reporter) noted, “Whether an individual or a nation, repeating the same mistake twice is just plain stupid.”
• The prosecution investigating Chun Doo-hwan’s 1995 rebellion charges dismissed the case, claiming “no right to prosecute.” Park Gye-dong (then Democratic Party lawmaker) exposed Roh Tae-woo’s slush fund, and Kim Young-sam (then president) ordered the 5.18 Special Act.
• The first trial sentenced him to death, reduced to life imprisonment in the second trial, and finalized—but Kim Young-sam pardoned him.
• Seong Han-yong emphasized, “The law cannot escape the boundaries of public sentiment and common sense, nor can it betray them.”
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Villains of the Lee Jae-myung Government.

• External villains strengthen community bonds, but internal villains destroy organizations. While Jang Dong-hyeok is the Lee Jae-myung government’s most steadfast ally, the villains lie within the Democratic Party.
• The following is Song Yong-chang’s (Korea Ilbo editorial writer) list of villains.
• First, the hardliners in the National Assembly’s Judiciary Committee. The alleged secret meeting between Cho Hee-dae (Chief Justice) and Han Duck-soo (former Prime Minister) was proven false, yet they escalated tensions by filing complaints against prosecutors who resisted during the unpopular Daejang-dong appeal abandonment case.
• Second, the group of lawmakers pushing to dismiss Lee Jae-myung’s indictment. Though it heavily resembles a show of strength by pro-Myung factions, such actions are unlikely to help. Song Yong-chang noted, “It only makes the president look like a petty figure anxiously worrying about post-retirement safety.”
• Third, pro-government YouTubers. “While they claim to support the Lee Jae-myung government, their real goal is to expand their own influence, position, and personal gain,” he analyzed.
• Related Link.

Legacy Media Crushed by the Oncoming Wheel.

• Jeong Sang-won (Korea Ilbo Online Content Director) confessed, “Media companies remain powerless in the face of AI capabilities that grow exponentially.”
• “The situation is flooded with empty slogans like ‘AI transition momentum,’ ‘substantive changes through AI,’ and ‘AI transition roadmaps.’ AI has even become an end in itself rather than a tool for producing good journalism. We’ve failed to establish proper norms or principles. It’s like when the internet first emerged, and smartphones and YouTube videos began eroding the legacy media’s status as newspapers.”
• Writer Jang Kang-myeong emphasized in *The Future That Came Early*, “Technology should not lead values—values should lead technology.” The crisis of legacy media may stem not from competition with AI churning out cheap articles, but from their failure to prove their own value.
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