Cho Hee-dae’s Counterattack: “No Re-nomination.”.

• Cheong Wa Dae requested a re-nomination after rejecting the Supreme Court chief justice’s nomination agreement for a justice candidate, but received a statement: “We cannot comply, as there is no reason or basis.”
• The Constitution states, “Supreme Court justices are appointed by the president with the consent of the National Assembly upon the chief justice’s nomination.”
• [The president appoints] implies that if the candidate is unsatisfactory, [they] may choose not to appoint. There is no provision for what happens if the president rejects a nominee submitted by the chief justice.
• In a statement, Cheong Wa Dae countered, “The idea that the president must automatically appoint a nominee submitted by the chief justice would nullify the president’s appointment authority,” adding, “This perception—that the chief justice’s nomination power supersedes the president’s appointment authority—violates the Constitution.”
• A senior judge interviewed by Kyunghyang Shinmun said, “There’s no way out. I’ve never seen anything like this in my judicial career.”
• The nomination and appointment powers are now in direct conflict.
• Related Link.
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Power Struggle with the President?

• Kim Min-seok (Democratic Party Leader) harshly criticized, “Are you fools? Can’t you read the Constitution? Do you have dyslexia?” He added, “This unprecedented chaos is not rebellion or renewed strife, but delusion—and the Democratic Party will crush it.”
• Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party Leader) claimed, “Rejecting the re-nomination request is a decision entirely in line with the Constitution.”
• Media commentary split along partisan lines.
• The *Hankyoreh* editorial condemned, “The Supreme Court Chief Justice’s blatant disregard for the authority of a president elected by the people is truly deplorable.” It noted, “This administration, which has filled the Supreme Court with conservatives, is ignoring public demands to ‘diversify’ the court and insisting on its own way.”
• The *Chosun Ilbo* editorial countered, “It is the Blue House’s stance that violates the Constitution.”
• The *JoongAng Ilbo* observed, “Even if the Blue House requested a re-nomination, the Supreme Court should have left room to form a new candidate recommendation committee.”
• Related Link.
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Who’s Right?

• Interpretations diverge, but for now, it’s accurate to call it a legislative vacuum.
• The Constitution doesn’t mandate automatic appointment upon nomination, but it also lacks provisions for what happens if the president refuses to appoint.
• The process could repeat indefinitely if the chief justice resubmits a new nominee.
• Previously, the president and chief justice pre-coordinated on multiple candidates, avoiding issues—but Cho Hee-dae (Chief Justice) bypassed this by submitting a written nomination unilaterally.
• From available details, Lee Jae-myung (President) pushed for Kim Min-gi (Seoul High Court Judge), but Cho Hee-dae insists Kim Min-gi is unacceptable—citing conflict-of-interest concerns due to Kim’s spouse, Oh Young-jun (Constitutional Court Justice).
• Ideally, the president could have sent Son Bong-gi’s (Supreme Court Justice Nominee) appointment bill to the National Assembly, letting the Democratic Party block it. Instead, the president unilaterally cut the process short.
• Restarting the Supreme Court Justice Recommendation Committee would resolve this, but Cheong Wa Dae insists on renominating Kim Min-gi, while Cho Hee-dae has drawn a line.
• The People Power Party accused, “The president is ignoring separation of powers,” while *Hankyoreh* countered, “Is the chief justice trying to stand above the president?”

What Lies Ahead?

• One Supreme Court justice seat could remain vacant until Cho Hee-dae’s retirement. It has already been empty for over 200 days.
• Eight justices are sufficient for trials.
• The case could go to the Constitutional Court. The People Power Party has already filed a constitutional dispute petition, arguing that withholding the appointment consent bill from the National Assembly violates its authority—but dismissal is likely.
• The Blue House or the Supreme Court could also file a petition.
• Lee Hun-hwan (Ajou University Professor) predicted, “If this becomes a constitutional dispute, it will likely spark significant debate.”
• Kim Jin-han (Class Hanhyeok Law Firm Attorney) noted, “If the president must automatically appoint a nominee, the appointment power becomes purely formal.” Cha Jin-a (Korea University Professor) added, “The president must provide valid reasons for rejecting an appointment.”
• The next nomination is pending. Cheon Dae-yeop (Supreme Court Justice) will retire next May. Cho Hee-dae retires in June, so he could nominate Cheon’s successor before leaving office.
• Under the Supreme Court Justice Expansion Act, 12 new justices—four annually from 2028—will be added over three years. All will be nominated by the next Chief Justice, likely appointed by Lee Jae-myung.
• Related Link.
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What Matters Now.

Korea Pays, Profits Split 50-50.

• Nearly finalized, but the U.S. investment project’s announcement awaits Trump’s greenlight. Kim Jeong-gwan (Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy) let slip details in a National Assembly briefing.
• The condition: if requested by the U.S., funds must be transferred within 45 days.
• The first U.S. investment is the Texas Ensign Gas Combined Cycle Power Plant. Korea covers 100% of the cost, but ownership is split 50-50 with the U.S. After recouping costs, the U.S. takes 90% of profits—Korea gets 10%.
• It’s a 6.5GW project. No purchase agreements yet, no long-term contracts. To break even, it needs an average annual cash flow of 16.7% over 20 years.
• Kim Jeong-gwan (Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy) reportedly told a closed-door National Assembly session that a $22.3 billion investment could yield $43.3–45.4 billion over two decades—based on a $67.9–70.7 per kW monthly rate. Some call the projections optimistic, but with rising electricity prices, it’s too early to judge. The key is whether AI data center demand holds.
• The *Hankyoreh* editorial questioned, “Can viability be confirmed by demand forecasts alone?”
• Last year, at Lee Jae-myung’s 100-day press conference, Kim Jeong-gwan (Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy) said, “There’s nothing fair about this. Please understand that this wasn’t done out of desire.”
• Related Link.
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Alaska Bites Too.

• Korea will also fund the Alaska LNG project—a 1,250 km pipeline and LNG terminal.
• The U.S. initially demanded $67 billion, but the figure is likely to shrink.

Umbrella Investment Structure Preserved.

• Integrated settlement terms were also maintained. The idea is to bundle multiple projects under a single SPV (special purpose vehicle) for consolidated yield management.
• The SPV is an umbrella investment entity. Losses in one project can be offset by profits from others—a provision originally in the MOU.
• The U.S. pushed for independent settlement but South Korea held firm. Risk pooling continues until principal and interest are recovered across the entire project.

8 Nuclear Reactors, Westinghouse Equity Investment Too.

• Negotiations are underway to secure 5–7% equity. While 15% is required to appoint a director, voting rights can still be exercised even without board attendance.
• The nuclear reactors total eight: two Korean APR1400s and six AP1000s.
• Korea will both invest and participate in construction. Each unit is projected to generate around $2 billion in revenue.

Pacekeeper Lee Jae-myung.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) proposed a deal to North Korea: halt nuclear weapons development in exchange for sanctions relief. It was a New York Times interview.
• The key point is not denuclearization but a halt to development.
• Lee said, “There’s no realistic alternative,” and asked rhetorically, “What other option is there besides diplomacy?” His UN speech will likely echo this.
• The proposal suggests freezing nuclear activity, rebuilding trust, and creating an environment where North Korea feels secure enough to survive without nuclear weapons.
• It’s not a new idea. The New York Times’ tone is skeptical, for these reasons:
• First, Kim Jong-un has no interest in a deal with Trump. North Korea would demand more than sanctions relief—but Trump has few cards left to play.
• Second, Trump is pressuring Lee. Troop deployments and investments are both stalled.
• Third, Lee can no longer act as a mediator. The division of roles between peacemaker and pacekeeper is meaningless now. Domestic issues alone are already complex.
• Chung Seong-jang (Sejong Institute researcher) analyzed, “Trump might be interested in a diplomatic show—like a visit to Pyongyang—to distract from Iran. But that’s all. A meeting itself is unlikely.”
• Related Link.

Changing a Moving Car’s Direction Requires First Stopping It.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) said this in an AP interview.
• The Chosun Ilbo argued in an editorial, “Even if North Korea claims ‘freeze,’ it means nothing without verification.”
• The JoongAng Ilbo criticized, “Lifting sanctions at the freeze stage risks de facto recognizing it as a nuclear state.”
• The Hankyoreh noted in an editorial, “To avoid a deal that only reduces threats to the U.S. while leaving those to South Korea and Japan intact, follow-up negotiations are essential.”
• Related Link.

Deep Dive.

Acting Prosecutor General: Lee Jung-hyun.

• Upon the Supreme Prosecutors’ Office’s transition to the Public Prosecutors’ Office on October 2, Lee Jung-hyun will assume the role of acting chief.
• Lee Jung-hyun (Suwon High Prosecutors’ Office Chief) once called the Sambangool North Korea remittance investigation “a deeply flawed investigative approach.”
• Both Chosun Ilbo and Kyunghyang Shinmun labeled him “a representative pro-government prosecutor.”
• Related Link.
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Kim Min-seok’s Gag Order and Kim Yong-min’s Defiance.

• Kim Min-seok (Democratic Party Leader) appeared on Democratic Party TV and said, “Members at the rank of lawmaker or higher should voice opinions on presidential personnel matters internally.” A warning against public outcry.
• Choo Mi-ae (Gyeonggi Province Governor) and Kim Yong-min (Democratic Party Lawmaker) have demanded the withdrawal of Kim Ji-yong’s (Director-General Nominee for the Serious Crime Investigation Agency) nomination.
• When YouTube comments suggested removing Kim Yong-min from the Legislation and Judiciary Committee, he responded, “It could be one of several options.”
• Kim Yong-min posted on Facebook, “The time still calls for fervent reformist resolve.”
• The Kyunghyang Shinmun editorial criticized, “The ruling party’s responsible demeanor is absent,” adding, “It should humbly reflect on criticisms that it fails to demonstrate ‘unifying and coordinating’ leadership befitting a ruling party.”
• Related Link.
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Two Wrong Leaders at the Worst Possible Moment.

• Gideon Rachman (Financial Times columnist) described Trump and Xi Jinping as “the wrong men at the wrong time.”
• Xi has no reason to clean up a war Trump started. In Ukraine too, China backs Russia. Their interests diverge from America’s.
• Observers suggest that as the U.S. and Russia struggle, Beijing might also delay invading Taiwan.
• Rachman noted, “Both share flaws of narcissism, nationalism, and narrow vision.”
• “Pageantry will abound, but a Reagan-Gorbachev-style turning point is unlikely,” he concluded.

What Xi Jinping Hopes For.

• Trump and Xi’s timelines differ. Trump is racing toward midterms, but Xi has no urgency. Xi holds a powerful card: rare earths. He aims to buy time to build technological and military strength.
• The U.S. underestimated China’s bargaining power. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed it as “playing poker with a pair,” but Gideon Rachman noted, “It was closer to a straight flush.”
• Rare earths were the key variable. Even after the trade truce, Beijing has only trickled out rare earths over the past year.
• U.S.-China tariff suspensions expire on November 10. Washington proposed a six-month extension, but Beijing insists on maintaining the status quo until Trump’s term ends.
• Taiwan is the wild card. Xi is pressuring Trump to delay or halt arms sales to Taiwan. The Wall Street Journal warned, “Backing down here would be a historic mistake.”

What Trump Should Demand.

• The Wall Street Journal editorialized that Trump should demand four things.
• First, press whether China is aiding Iran,
• second, warn against distilling U.S. AI models,
• third, demand no threats in the Taiwan Strait,
• fourth, demand no coercion with rare earths.
• Trump isn’t without leverage: he could impose up to 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil and gas. Xi Jinping, too, needs U.S. export markets.
• Related Link.

Is Taiwan Likely to Fall into Chinese Arms?

• The Wall Street Journal analyzed, “China is trying to pull Taiwan in without firing a shot.” Fears are growing that the U.S. might not protect Taiwan.
• Chou Tzu-yu (Chairman of Taiwan’s Kuomintang) shook things up by asking, “Why can’t we choose both?”
• There are suspicions that Beijing is waging cyber opinion warfare in Taiwan, along with evidence it supported Chou’s election.
• A Brookings Institute survey found only 24% view the U.S. as a reliable ally. Still, Taiwan isn’t about to switch sides—National Taiwan University polling showed just 8% support unification.
• Alexander Huang (former Kuomintang head of international affairs) said, “Most party members still see Beijing as just a bunch of communists.”
• Related Link.

Takaichi’s Distress Signal.

• Takaichi Sanae (Japan’s Prime Minister) is meeting Trump.
• Takaichi fell out of Xi Jinping’s favor by stating, “If China attacks Taiwan, Japan could intervene.” Beijing immediately restricted Japanese travel and reduced rare earth exports.
• Lian Dehui (Director of the Japan Research Center at Shanghai International Studies University) said, “The premise for improved relations is Japan’s government acknowledging its mistakes.”
• Komura Masahiro (LDP lawmaker) stated, “The top priority is maintaining diplomatic ties.”
• Will Trump mediate? Kenneth Weinstein (Hudson Institute Japan Chair) sees low chances.

Trump and Pezeshki.

• Will the presidents of warring U.S. and Iran meet? Masoud Pezeshki (Iranian President) is coming to New York for the UN General Assembly.
• The U.S. is obligated to allow member-state representatives to attend the UN General Assembly. The Iranian delegation’s movements are restricted to airports, hotels, and UN headquarters. No strolls in Central Park or shopping on 5th Avenue without permission.
• Iran remains internationally isolated. There are rumors that think tank officials wary of U.S. scrutiny are avoiding contact with Iran.
• António Guterres (UN Secretary-General) said, “Serious dialogue is needed between the U.S., Iran, and Gulf states,” but added, “It will likely take place elsewhere.”
• Related Link.

Another Take.

Can an Arsonist Extinguish the Blaze?

• “Pyromaniacs do not make good firefighters.”
• Mariecher Sukkar (Fellow at Stanford University’s Human-Centered AI Institute) pointed out, “It’s wrong to ask AI company CEOs for solutions.” It’s akin to requesting oil corporations to devise climate policies.
• Voluntary development moratoriums agreed upon by companies alone are insufficient. Public entities must oversee the entire development process and assess risks. To persuade other nations, binding regulations must first take effect in the U.S.

“The People Were Deceived.”.

• Yu Si-min (author) made this remark on Media Today’s YouTube channel. Regarding Lee Jae-myung (President) saying, “The maximum extent of prosecutorial reform was to separate investigating prosecutors from indicting prosecutors,” Yu pointed out, “I’ve never heard such a story.” The claim is that Lee’s original plan was effectively to create another prosecutors’ office, yet he deceived the public.
• Yu has repeatedly criticized in interviews that prosecutorial reform is regressing. While pro-Lee factions dismissed Yu’s claims as “brain farts,” Yu argues that last week’s press conference confirmed his reasoning as factual. If Lee never intended to completely strip prosecutors of investigative power, he should have explained this to the public from the start.
• Yu stated, “One must not misinterpret events that have already occurred, but for those yet to unfold, one can broadly speculate on possibilities.”
• He also noted, “Attacking ‘Moon-Jo-Tak-Jung-Yu’ (Moon Jae-in, Cho Kuk, Kim Eo-jun, Chung Chul-rae, Yu Si-min) does not increase support.” The argument is, “Since policies cannot always succeed, when criticism lowers approval ratings, the people who would have supported you are now being alienated.”
• Regarding Lee’s press conference statement, “We are all pro-Moon and pro-Roh,” Yu assessed, “It was a meaningless remark. The time for such rhetoric to resolve crises has long passed.”
• “There are media outlets that exclude conservatives and seek balance within the progressive camp. News Factory is one such outlet. Kim Eo-jun is media of the faction, not of the Democratic Party. The same applies to Choi Wook of Mabull Show.”
• Yu criticized, “Most traditional media YouTube channels have aligned with Kim Min-seok and still line up behind Lee Jae-myung.” He expressed frustration, “They criticize Kim Eo-jun and me without stating their reasons.”
• Yu concluded, “The purpose of criticism should be a better world, a healthier media ecosystem, and a more successful government.” He criticized, “The antics of so-called pro-Lee critics—who lack this mission—are continuously undermining Lee Jae-myung’s political foundation.”
• Related Link.

Yoo Si-min’s View on the Press.

• Yoo Si-min (author) defined journalistic norms as fact, logic, and fairness. While fact and logic remain universal standards, fairness has never been upheld. Now, demanding fairness from new media is unjustified.
• He described his self-identification as a “government-affiliated intellectual” as meaning, “It’s not about unconditionally siding with the government, but about critiquing according to one’s own judgment without fearing accusations of being a lackey.”
• Yoo stated, “The era when media monopolized information has ended.”
• “Do special stories emerge just because reporters drink with lawmakers? No. Now is better than the past, when few households read two newspapers. We’ve been liberated from media monopolies and entered an era where everyone participates. I see it as progress. I feel liberated.”
• There was strong backlash against his labeling mainstream media as “old-fashioned press.” Yoo countered, “It’s contradictory for those who make a living from criticism to be sensitive to it.” “Criticism is inherently harsh,” he said, “and they don’t practice it themselves but expect others to treat them that way.”
• He also opposes blaming algorithms: “If a murderer uses a knife, you don’t blame the knife manufacturer.” The public sphere, he argues, should expand to include all spaces where information circulates—traditional and new media alike. “We each do what we can in our corner of this diversified public sphere.”
• “Media companies are still major players. The mutual mudslinging between new and old media is itself a form of critique. It doesn’t need to be dignified to be valid.”

The Fix.

Suicide Rate Drops, But Rises Among Teens.

• Last year, 14,144 people died by suicide. The rate per 100,000 people was 27.8, a 4.7% decrease.
• The teen suicide rate increased from 8.0 to 8.6.
• Suicide remains the leading cause of death for those in their 10s to 40s.
• Related Link.

Will Expanding Renewable Energy Raise Electricity Bills Like in Germany?

• It’s not true. Kim Sung-hwan (Minister of Climate and Energy Environment) once said, “If we shut down coal power and only expand renewable energy, electricity bills could skyrocket like in Germany.”
• According to Refact, the surge in Germany’s industrial electricity prices in 2022 was due to the energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war, as in other countries.
• Germany had high dependence on Russian natural gas but has been steadily reducing it.
• Germany’s industrial electricity price rose from €15.3 per kWh in 2021 to €43.3, then fell to €17.6 last year—41% below the peak.
• During the same period, Germany’s renewable energy generation share increased by 13.4 percentage points, from 45.6% to 59.0%.
• It’s true that Germany’s electricity prices are higher than in other countries—double the U.S. level and 50% higher than in China.
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ICYMI.

The Era of Yen Carry Trade Is Over.

• If Japan’s benchmark interest rate rises, yen carry trades—borrowing yen to invest abroad—could unwind. As of March this year, the outstanding balance of overseas yen borrowing was 360 trillion yen, or $2.3 trillion.
• Last year, Japan’s overseas direct investment balance was 384 trillion yen—over half of its GDP.
• But if rates rise? Investors might sell foreign assets, buy yen, and repay debt. The shock would intensify if overseas funds also return.
• Barry Eichengreen (University of California professor) assessed, “The era of the yen as a funding currency is now over.”
• U.S. rates remain far higher than Japan’s, and Japan has limits on raising rates. Shoki Omori (Deutsche Bank chief rates strategist) said, “It won’t be easy to change the market’s structure.”

Kim Keon-hee’s Bribery Appeal Sentence Reduced to 5 Years.

• Reduced from 7 years.
• The appellate court ruled that the charge of a 39.9 million won watch gift being a bribe was not sufficiently proven. Most other charges remain unchanged.

Moon Jae-in’s Bribery Case Goes to Citizen Jury Trial.

• Prosecutors allege that the 2018 March hiring of Seo Chang-ho (then Moon’s son-in-law) as a T’way Air executive was a bribe.
• They claim it was a quid pro quo for Moon Jae-in (then president) appointing Lee Sang-jik (then Democratic Party lawmaker) as head of the Korea Institute for SMEs & Startups.
• The case was indicted in April last year, ahead of the presidential election.
• Moon Jae-in applied for a citizen jury trial, which the court accepted. Moon Da-hye (Moon’s daughter) and Seo Chang-ho will also appear as witnesses.

CNN’s White House Ban Triggers Broadcast Pool Boycott.

• Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC—part of the broadcast pool—agreed to withhold cameras and microphones from Trump’s events. “No administration should restrict press institutions because of disagreement with their reporting,” they stated.
• The New York Times and Washington Post also pledged to withhold publishing White House photos.
• Related Link.

Worth Reading.

Changwon’s Megaprojects Offer a Cautionary Tale.

• Without corporate headquarters, population declines. A city grows only if it hosts a headquarters.
• Nagoya rivals Tokyo and Osaka because Toyota is headquartered there. South Korea fails to replicate this.
• Jeong Joon-ho (Kangwon National University professor) emphasized, “As POSCO did, a region must be so integral to a company that it cannot exist without it.”
• Creating ten innovation cities was a mistake—resources should have been concentrated in one or two.
• “The southwestern region could be positioned as a hub for Southeast Asia and China, while the southeastern region focuses on Japan. Only with sufficient infrastructure will companies be incentivized to relocate.”
• Jeong views jeonse and monthly rent as central to housing stability. “Sudden elimination of jeonse would cause chaos,” he warned, stressing the need for “orderly retreat.”
• He advocates for “housing neutrality”—where owning or renting poses no significant disadvantage. Regarding Lee Jae-myung’s administration’s emphasis on owner-occupancy, he insisted, “Tax systems must be simple and clear.”
• Related Link.

Four Social Insurance Premiums: Scarier Than Taxes.

• Japan has a term called “gokōgomin (五公五民),” meaning half of income goes to public burdens and only half remains for individuals. Though it originally described harsh exploitation during the Edo period, Japan’s actual national burden rate (as a share of GNI) is 45.7% this year.
• Jeon Young-soo (Hanyang University professor) warned that South Korea’s burden rate could rise much faster than Japan’s.
• “Fiscal collapse and exploding burdens have already begun. In an inverted pyramid (rising elderly population/shrinking workforce), social insurance cannot be sustained. That’s why a compressed shock path worries me more than a gradual adaptation route.”
• Jeon Young-soo warned, “Japan is South Korea’s future.” The implication: social insurance burdens will grow faster and higher here.
• Related Link.

A Real Estate Tsar Is Needed.

• Park Chang-gyun (Capital Markets Institute Director of Trend Analysis) said, “The president must be seen physically wielding a shovel.” The idea is that “extraordinary measures like injecting 100 trillion won into public rental housing are necessary.”
• Lee Sang-young (Myongji University professor) pointed out, “The problem starts with pushing overly complex issues through with overly simplistic convictions.”
• Park Hyun (Hankyoreh columnist) emphasized, “A figure capable of overseeing supply, taxation, and finance should be appointed as a ‘real estate tsar’ at Cheong Wa Dae to systematically redesign policies.” The suggestion: “With asset inequality and housing instability at crisis levels, solving housing issues could be the best welfare policy.”
• Related Link.

The Three Stages of U.S.-China AI Competition.

• Stage 1 (2012–2019) saw U.S. companies lead while Chinese firms pursued.
• Stage 2 (2020–2023) saw the U.S. establish overwhelming dominance. While the U.S. focused on performance improvements, China prioritized efficiency.
• Stage 3 (2024 onward) has entered a phase of parity, according to Huang Ping (professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong).
• Zhong Dongsheng (vice dean of the School of International Relations at Renmin University) stated, “Ultimately, the decisive factor in the AI competition will be the flow of data and capital.” He projected, “The entity that absorbs data from over 6 billion people in the middle ground—excluding China and the U.S.—and generates more cash flow from them will evolve faster and win the U.S.-China tech race.”
• Park Min-hee (Hankyoreh columnist) analyzed, “Both the U.S. and China are trapped in the fear of falling behind if they slow down.” The message: “The world cannot remain a passive bystander.”
• Related Link.

“Don’t Forget. You Will Die One Day.”.

• Kim Ki-yeon (Chung-Ang University professor) receives this message five times a day as an alarm.
• There are days when you realize the time left to you is not infinite. The day you see your mother’s face in the mirror, the day you can no longer read the writing on a medicine packet without a magnifying glass, the day a seat remains empty at the holiday table, the day an obituary appears before greetings in the classmates’ group chat. There are a few numbers in my phone I can no longer reach but have not yet deleted.
• This message can also be read differently: “Don’t forget. Today still remains.”
• Related Link.