Trump’s Call.

• Trump called Jensen Huang (CEO of Nvidia), who was mid-stage talk show. Huang switched to speakerphone.
• Jensen Huang: “I’m speaking to the entire world right now.”
• Trump: “I guarantee you, it’s all a scam. Data centers are great, they make people rich—like oil. Bigger than the internet, and AI is way beyond that. But we’re being played by people who resent it. Could be political figures, could be the Chinese. We won’t let that happen. It’s a scam.”
• Jensen Huang: “Exactly. We won’t let that happen, Mr. President.”
• Trump: “That’s right. We won’t. Robots won’t take over the world. My uncle was one of the top professors at MIT for 41? 42 years. Considered the sharpest mind. Jensen knows this. So I’ve got a genetic edge. I believe in genetics.”
• Jensen Huang: “That’s why you know AI so well.”
• Trump: “Exactly. I know AI. I have common sense about it. Robots won’t take over. AI won’t take over the world. It’s all a scam. Still, we need to be careful. Very careful, do things judiciously. But we won’t stop the industry.”
• Related Link.

“All We Need Is a Smart President.”.

• Trump claimed on Truth Social, “I am the conspiracy theory destroyer.”
• This was in response to Dario Amodei (CEO of Anthropic) and others arguing that AI model development should be slowed.
• From Trump’s perspective, unresolved wars, soaring prices, plummeting approval ratings—what’s left to trust is the AI cycle.
• Trump insisted, “The only control or ‘guardrail’ needed for AI is a strong, smart (high IQ!) president—and America has those in spades.”
• CNN analyzed, “He cannot afford the AI bubble to burst and weaken his political standing.”

Trump Was an AI Accelerationist.

• How did an 80-year-old populist who avoids email become such an ardent AI believer? Axios analyzed, “The AI narrative perfectly aligns with Trump’s instincts.”
• First, one of the few areas where the US outperforms China.
• Second, construction on a historic scale: data centers, semiconductor clusters, power plants.
• Third, Trump’s formidable influence over tech titans.
• Fourth, stock markets hitting record highs.
• Fifth, American hegemony and a forward-looking vision.
• Sixth, elite experts saying “no.”
• Related Link.

AI Speed Control Debate: Where Does South Korea Stand?

• Lee Jae-myung (president) is also leaning toward accelerationism. “AI has already become a reality, beyond morality and necessity,” he wrote, adding, “Crisis is opportunity; if you can’t avoid it, you must embrace it.”
• Lee Won-tae (Kookmin University professor) said, “The government must move beyond the binary of ‘development vs. regulation’ and swiftly secure domestic frontier AI capabilities while establishing AI sovereignty to independently test, verify, and control them.”
• Lee Seung-hyun (Hanyang University professor) warned, “If mishandled, this could become a ‘sabotaged ladder,’ widening gaps instead of narrowing them.” He added, “It’s also undesirable for the US and China to collude on standards, so South Korea needs in-depth discussions on its stance.”
• Kim Doo-eon (Hana Securities researcher) pointed out, “There’s no evidence that speed control theories create inflection points in hardware orders or sales.” Lee Jae-sung (Chung-Ang University professor) forecasted, “If Big Tech players pause their ‘chicken game’ to catch their breath, it could create a playing field we can catch up to.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

What Matters Now.

“I Didn’t Know Because I’m a Liberal Arts Major.”.

• Kim Seung-won (Minister of Justice nominee) said this during his confirmation hearing. He had requested approval for clinical trials but claimed, “As a liberal arts major, I couldn’t assess the treatment’s efficacy.”
• The hearing had no witnesses. No new information emerged. He also argued, “Stating alleged facts constitutes a crime of publicizing alleged facts.”
• He choked up when the cooperative run by Kim Seung-won’s wife was mentioned.
• Lee Jae-myung (President) is likely to push for his appointment. The JoongAng Ilbo warned in an editorial, “Forcing through personnel decisions that defy public sentiment will only invite stronger backlash.”
• Related Link.

Nothing Left but Tears.

• JoongAng Ilbo’s front-page lead headline. All papers responded with cynicism.
• Chosun Ilbo headlined, “I’m a Liberal Arts Major.”
• Dong-A Ilbo and Kyunghyang Shinmun both ran “Blind Hearing” as their headline. Hankook Ilbo noted, “Failed to Shake Off Suspicions.”
• Hankyoreh did not feature it as the front-page lead. Their bland headline: “No Witnesses, No Clarity on Suspicions.”
• Related Link.
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Will He Abandon Reelection?

• 10:00 AM on the 18th, the presidential press conference has two major issues.
• First, it’s highly likely he’ll confirm that constitutional revision for a second term is impossible,
• Second, the dismissal of charges remains uncertain.
• A key pro-Lee insider met by Chosun Ilbo said, “It’s true the president is convinced his case was a politically motivated prosecution, and he’s long believed charges should be dropped,” but added, “Public opinion is unfavorable, and even within the party, the charge dismissal issue is contentious—so he’s deeply conflicted.”
• Related Link.

Troop Deployment and Real Estate: Tough Questions.

• Troop deployment to the Strait of Hormuz is also contentious. Backlash is fierce even within the Democratic Party.
• A Democratic Party lawmaker said, “Every time the president mentions real estate, it backfires,” adding, “He’ll probably talk about increasing supply, but people already know there’s no empty land left in Seoul.”
• Kim Hyun-ji (First Deputy Chief of Staff to the President) must also address allegations of personnel interference.
• Related Link.

Democratic Party Civil War.

• Choo Mi-ae (Gyeonggi Province Governor): “The president is trembling in fear, clinging to insurrectionist forces.”
• Kim Min-seok (Democratic Party Leader): “The situation resembles the prelude to when factions inside and outside the party united to impeach President Roh Moo-hyun.”
• Cho Kuk (Director of the Innovation Policy Research Institute, Cho Kuk Innovation Party): “This will spread the notion of ‘impeaching Lee Jae-myung.’ Don’t they know the ‘don’t think of an elephant’ principle?”
• Kim Min-seok: “The lesson is that those who attempted pointless impeachment ended up ruined.” “Cho Kuk talks about ‘core’ issues but actually sways the support base. It’s agitation disguised as concern.”
• Park Ji-won (Democratic Party Lawmaker): “The ruling party leader should focus on embracing and refining issues to help the president succeed, rather than creating problems.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Debating Exceptions to the 52-Hour Workweek in Mega-Special Zones.

• Two issues are at stake.
• First, introducing a white-collar exemption that would exempt high-income R&D positions from the 52-hour weekly cap.
• Second, extending the maximum contract period for temporary workers to four years.
• The 52-hour exemption would apply to the top 3% of earners, contingent on individual written agreements. This would cover those earning over 130 million won annually—over half of Samsung Electronics employees and 8 out of 10 SK Hynix workers.
• Kim Young-hoon (Minister of Employment and Labor) stated, “Past failures in social dialogue seem to stem from a lingering trauma: the government often predetermined answers and instrumentalized discussions,” adding, “This is not about imposing solutions but a proposal to find answers together.”
• Yang Kyung-soo (Korean Confederation of Trade Unions Chairperson) previously criticized, “Businesses haggle over what incentives to offer, but why should labor negotiate what to concede?”
• Lee So-young (Nominee for Minister of SMEs and Startups) remarked, “It’s time to address the gap between the law and the reality where workers already endure far longer hours under harsher conditions than the 52-hour limit.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

200 Billion Dollars Filled, But…

• The U.S. is demanding investment in nuclear fuel reprocessing. It has proposed funding a 4,000-ton pyroprocessing project—a technology that reprocesses spent nuclear fuel without water.
• South Korea has already reached the $200 billion investment cap with the U.S. Though final announcements remain, the Texas gas-fired power complex project ($22.3 billion), nuclear power project framework ($120 billion), and Alaska LNG project ($67 billion) alone total $209.3 billion.

Deep Dive.

Cho Gi-dae’s Silence.

• Though the Blue House returned the Supreme Court nominee for reconsideration, there has been no reply.
• The Blue House is pushing for Kim Min-gi (Suwon High Court Chief Judge), the first candidate, but Cho Gi-dae (Chief Justice of the Supreme Court) insists a new nomination committee must be formed.
• The Court Organization Act states, “The nomination committee is formed each time the Chief Justice recommends a Supreme Court nominee.” Strictly speaking, this does not apply to re-nomination after rejection.
• Related Link.

U.S. Treasury Yields Break 5%.

• First time since 2007. Speculation grows that the era of low rates has ended, yet Trump insists, “U.S. rates must remain the lowest in the world.”
• Jacques Gordon (CreditSuisse macro strategist) forecasts, “The 10-year yield could rise to 5.5%.” Greg Peters (PGIM Credit CIO) states, “Beyond traditional recession triggers, there’s little to justify lowering rates.”
• Lee Eun-taek (KB Securities director) warns, “If the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield breaks 5.0% on a sustained basis, major institutional investors could shift funds from risky assets to safer U.S. bonds.”
• Related Link.

Not Scary Then, Scary Now.

• Jared Bernstein (former White House Council of Economic Advisers chair) criticized austerity under Biden but reversed his stance—citing three reasons.
• First, debt is growing faster than growth rates. The risk of a debt spiral is high.
• Second, annual deficits already hit 6% of GDP. Money is being borrowed as if in recession—even though there isn’t one.
• Third, Trump and Bezos are amplifying risks. Bezos’s bluster lasted less than two days.
• The U.S. bond market is deeply intertwined with the global financial system. A warning that within a decade, some form of painful debt reckoning will arrive.
• Related Link.

Another Take.

Slowing Down, Profits Up.

• Kim Il-hyuk (KB Securities analyst) analyzed the rationale for AI deceleration into three points.
• First, the rapid release cycle of models has made it difficult to recoup profits. It’s a case of diminishing marginal returns. The strategy is to reduce costs while increasing efficacy to boost token demand, rather than widening performance gaps.
• Second, safety is a competitive edge. It reduces the risk of problems and allows differentiation from Chinese competitors.
• Third, it could be a strategy to extend release cycles while seeking major breakthroughs.
• If development slows? The Anthropic-OpenAI duopoly benefits.
• They’ve reportedly used over 100,000 GPUs for 2–3 months—opportunity costs estimated at $1.21 billion per quarter, or $52 billion annually in training expenses.
• There’s speculation that Anthropic must reduce training costs to achieve profitability in Q3.

If You Want to Slow Down, Slow Down.

• Wall Street Journal and Financial Times argue the market should handle it.
• Wall Street Journal noted, “If deemed risky, responsibility lies in slowing the pace.”
• Financial Times emphasized, “If a flawed agent causes an accident, the executives who created that agent must be held accountable.”
• Related Link.

Why the November Crisis Theory?

• Diesel prices have surged to $192.8 per barrel. Supply instability has worsened after Saudi Arabia’s oil pipeline halted operations.
• LNG is even more vulnerable. Stockpiles cover only up to nine days. Prices have exceeded $25 per MMBtu—more than double February’s levels.
• Yoon Seung-hyun (Ventus CEO) said, “Freight costs for a 40-foot container to the UAE were under $2,000 before the war. Now, with war risk surcharges and detours, they exceed $12,000.” He added, “It’s practically impossible to operate.”

Saudi Arabia: A Paper Tiger.

• Last year’s military spending was $83.2 billion—1.7 times South Korea’s.
• Mohammed bin Salman (Saudi Crown Prince) called Trump to request a strike on the Houthis but was rebuffed.
• The Houthis have blockaded the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Some analysts warn the region is heading toward a worst-case scenario post-U.S.-Iran conflict.
• Simon Henderson (NIE Research Fellow) said, “Saudi Arabia has world-class equipment but is effectively a paper tiger. Its air force’s combat record is lackluster, and its ground forces’ defensive capabilities are abysmal.”

The Fix.

Boiler-Free Apartments in the Works.

• It’s a pilot project using heat pumps for cooling, heating, and hot water. The target is the Shin-hyo Apartment in Hyodon-dong, Seogwipo, Jeju, with completion set for the first half of next year.
• A Jeju official said, “While factors like insulation and outdoor temperatures vary, there are cases where energy costs were reduced by up to 80% compared to existing LPG boilers.”
• Related Link.

Reducing Transmission Towers from 4,723 to 2,509.

• The plan is to bundle the existing two lines with two new lines into four-line towers.
• Kim Sung-hwan (Minister of Climate, Energy, and Environment) said, “Total electricity capacity could increase by up to threefold.”
• Areas where transmission lines pass will receive 2 billion won per kilometer in subsidies. Two-thirds of these funds will be prioritized for village solar projects—the “Grid Solar Income Village” model.
• For a 73km project, 10.74 billion won out of 16.1 billion won in local government subsidies will be distributed to 83 surrounding villages. Each village will install 860kW of solar power with 1.3 billion won, and 38 households on average will share the profits—calculated at 3.4 million won per household annually.
• Jo Yong-jun (Secretary of the Daejeon Transmission Tower Abolition Task Force) said, “Residents fundamentally question why their region must sacrifice to supply power to the capital area or national semiconductor industrial complexes,” adding, “This shouldn’t be solved with subsidies—power plants should be built where power is needed to end regional sacrifice.”
• Seok Gwang-hoon (Energy Transition Forum Senior Researcher) emphasized, “To reduce the number and length of transmission lines, we must ultimately move toward ‘local production for local consumption’ of electricity.”
• Related Link.

When Will Assisted Dying Become Permissible?

• In the UK, a bill to legalize assisted dying was defeated.
• The proposal targeted terminally ill patients with sound mental capacity and a life expectancy of six months or less, but faced criticism for being overly restrictive. Some estimates suggested it would apply to only about 1% of deaths.
• The Financial Times noted, “The problem arises because there has been no proper discussion of what constitutes an appropriate rate of assisted dying.” Canada, for reference, stands at 5%.
• In the U.S., 41% of deaths are caused by heart disease. A quarter of Americans die in intensive care units, with most cases involving the removal of life-support devices—a form of assisted dying.
• As medical science advances, sudden deaths may decrease while prolonged, painful deaths increase. The need for more open and honest conversations is growing.
• Related Link.

ICYMI.

Transformers in a 60-Year Super Cycle.

• Hyun-joon Cho (Hyosung Chairman) said this.
• Hyosung Heavy Industries will supply ultra-high-voltage transformers to two U.S. Big Tech companies. The combined contract value is 386.5 billion won. U.S. market share approaches 50%.

Finland Seeks French Nuclear Umbrella.

• It now includes 11 countries: the UK, Germany, Poland, Sweden, Denmark, and others.
• Aleksander Stubb (Finnish President) emphasized, “This decision is above all to strengthen European security” and “will not replace or duplicate NATO.”

The Westminster Era Is Drawing to a Close.

• Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland have resolved to withdraw from the UK. “Westminster (the central government) is failing to fulfill its role,” they argued.
• The Welsh party, a separatist party, won in Wales.
• Trump, during a visit to Dublin on the 12th, said, “I’d love to see Ireland united, it’s going to happen eventually, and it would be a beautiful thing.”

Three Years Without a Single Typhoon Landfall.

• Warming heat domes have blocked typhoons from moving north.
• No typhoon has made landfall since Kanun in June 2023.

Asiana Miles Valid for a Decade.

• Flight-based accruals convert at 100% to Korean Air miles. Credit card and partner accruals convert at an 82% rate.
• Morning Calm upgrades will reflect combined mileage balances.

230,000 Under 10 Own 1.8 Trillion Won in Stocks.

• 770,000 minors hold 7.3 trillion won in stocks.
• The number of minors holding over 50 million won in stocks more than doubled from 7,200 in 2024 to 15,400 last year.
• Park Sung-hoon (People Power Party lawmaker) argued, “Apart from the positive aspect of expanding investment bases, we must closely examine whether loopholes in illicit gifting or opaque funding sources are emerging.”
• Related Link.

BYD’s Chinese Washing.

• Stella Li (BYD Vice President) said, “If we produce locally, we become a European company.” The plan is to produce all cars sold in Europe locally.
• Chery Automobile also decided to build its own-brand vehicles at the former Nissan plant in Barcelona.
• The EU imposes a 10% base tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, plus up to 35% countervailing duties on subsidies.
• Related Link.

Panama Canal Express Fees.

• Transit fees have risen from $140,000 to $2.3 million. SK Gas even paid $5.7 million in express charges.
• Last year, 23% of Korea’s imported oil and gas products came from North America, with over 90% of LPG originating there.
• Kim Jae-young (Dong-A Ilbo columnist) assessed, “The meteorological anomaly of no rain in Panama is returning as a terrifying butterfly effect, squeezing the cost of living in South Korea and the lifelines of exporting companies on the other side of the globe.”
• Related Link.

Worth Reading.

Kim Sung-hwan and Kim Young-hoon.

• Kim Sung-hwan (Minister of Climate, Energy, and Environment) has changed.
• Once opposed to extending nuclear power plant lifespans, he now claims, “Other countries extend them by 20 years.”
• After stating, “My principle is that rivers must flow,” he reversed course: “If dam construction is necessary, it should obviously be done.”
• Kim Young-hoon (Minister of Employment and Labor) remains unchanged.
• He drew a line, saying, “I am negative on white-collar exemptions,” and insisted, “The Yellow Envelope Law is taking root.”
• Jang Won-jae (Dong-A Ilbo columnist) sided with Kim Sung-hwan:
• “If necessary for the majority of citizens and the nation as a whole, the courage to decisively part with familiar beliefs is essential,” he argued.
• Related Link.

Arrogance Begets Wrath.

• According to Aristotle, anger is a desire to make a ruler feel something. Hatred is a desire for the ruler to vanish, regardless of what they feel.
• Park Sang-hoon (political scientist) warned, “Once popular anger turns to hatred, people will not believe the president no matter what they do.”
• One need only pursue dignity instead of arrogance. Park emphasized, “Dignity is also a form of arrogance, but a moderate, dignified one” and “the public forgives that level of arrogance.”
• Related Link.

Roh Moo-hyun’s Optimism and Lee Jae-myung’s Fear.

• “Roh Moo-hyun (former president) was able to let go of himself, but Lee Jae-myung (president) cannot.” These are the words of a figure who worked with both presidents.
• Lee Jeong-ae (Hankyoreh columnist) analyzed, “It may be that the fear of ‘if I lose here, it’s over’ prevents him from uttering the simple phrase, ‘I will not drop the indictment.’”
• “Thinking of the ‘human Lee Jae-myung’ who has struggled desperately to survive, one might feel sympathy. But he is already the nation’s most powerful figure. (Omitted) The urgent task is to find a breakthrough to turn ‘suspicion’ into ‘trust.’ That begins with drawing a line under the unnecessary controversies of the term-extension constitutional amendment and the indictment cancellation debate.”
• Related Link.

The Era of Government Savings.

• When tax revenue is high, there are four options: first, allocate it via a supplementary budget; second, cut taxes; third, repay debt (redeem government bonds); or fourth, increase savings.
• A supplementary budget during high growth can inflate price and interest burdens. Tax cuts carry long-term political risks. Repaying bonds is good, but growth-oriented investment is also necessary.
• Woo Suk-jin (Myongji University professor) emphasized, “The rational choice is partial repayment + partial savings,” adding, “Accumulating funds when tax revenue exceeds trends and transferring them to the general account when it falls below trends can reduce both overspending during booms and abrupt austerity during slumps.”
• “The era of government savings is not an era of government not spending. It is an era of allocating the fruits of temporary booms partly to debt reduction and partly to future growth and crisis response. The new challenge for fiscal policy is transparent rules and democratic oversight to enable this.”
• Related Link.

Chuncheon Is Closer to Seoul Than Sokcho.

• Chuncheon to Sokcho is 84 km, but Chuncheon to Seoul is 75 km.
• This is a cautionary tale about the illusion of categories.
• Choi Hoon (Hallym University professor) emphasized, “Even information we believe we know may be a summary missing key details” and “the power to reduce errors in thinking does not come from stronger conviction, but from the habit of checking one’s own convictions.”
• Related Link.