Like a Broken Radio: “We Want Iran’s Oil.”.

• Donald Trump’s (U.S. President) press conference, as expected, offered nothing new.
• Iran presented a peace proposal and Pakistan a mediation plan, but Trump merely remarked, “It’s not enough, but it’s significant progress,” before again threatening an attack. “If an attack is carried out, it will take 100 years to rebuild,” he said.
• “We want Iran’s oil,” he admitted, “but sadly, the American people want us to come home.”

Trump’s “Final, Final, Final Ultimatum,” Iran Vows Retaliation.

• Red lines were crossed, but no further escalation has occurred. The bridge the U.S. attacked remains closed, and while the nuclear facility was hit, damage was not severe.
• The deadline Trump had announced was originally Monday midnight, then pushed to 8 p.m. Tuesday, and again to midnight Tuesday—Wednesday 2 p.m. KST.
• If Trump attacks the plant or the bridge, it could trigger stronger retaliation.
• There are also reports of the death of Iran’s intelligence chief, widely believed to have been killed in an Israeli targeted strike.
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This Is a War Crime.

• Attacking non-military civilian facilities violates international law.
• Past presidents claimed to follow legal procedures under international and domestic law, even when entering wars. Trump acts as if such laws don’t exist. He even said, “I don’t need international law.”
• The Geneva Conventions, Hague Conventions, Nuremberg Principles, and UN Charter all prohibit attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure.
• The “imminent threat” Trump cited never materialized. It’s not only a violation of international law but also of the Constitution, as Congress was not consulted.
• A missile also struck Tehran’s Sharif University of Technology.
• Iranian casualties include 244 children, totaling 1,606 deaths. Over 1,345 have died in Lebanon. There are claims Israel aims to turn Lebanon into another Gaza.
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What Matters Now.

Why Trump Is Furious.

• Trump was buoyed by the successful rescue of the fighter pilot—a genuinely cinematic scenario and undeniably impressive feat.
• Trump gleefully flooded Truth Social with emotional posts, but the reality of a war without an exit strategy remained unchanged. Allies in Europe and Asia stayed cold.
• His sudden outbursts of curses and irritation may signal a fraying emotional state.
• “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!”
• “Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell — JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.”
• Appending “Praise be to Allah” to a tirade of curses is, to Muslims, not just insulting but overtly aggressive.

Why Iran Can Keep Launching Missiles.

• When Israel attacked Iran last June, Iran fired over 3,500 missiles and drones at the Gulf region.
• Yet in the past five weeks, Iran’s missile launches against Israel have been limited to 400–500 rounds. (Not a direct comparison, but the reduction is undeniably significant.)
• Israel estimates that 70% of Iran’s missile launchers and stockpiles are now unusable, but Reuters cited an anonymous source claiming only one-third has been destroyed.
• According to a Financial Times analysis, the key question is not how many missiles remain, but how difficult they are to eliminate.
• Most missiles launched so far were fired from mobile launchers. Twelve massive underground bunkers have yet to be revealed.
• Iran has long prepared for war. With a decentralized mosaic defense strategy, it is likely to endure strikes and keep counterattacking. The U.S. must annihilate Iran to win—but Iran only needs to survive.
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North Korea’s Rare Response.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) stated at a State Council meeting regarding the North Korean drone incident, “Though not the intent of our government, we express regret to North Korea over unnecessary military tensions caused by some irresponsible and reckless actions.”
• The drones in question are not from the Yoon Suk-yeol administration but were sent by civilians under the Lee Jae-myung government.
• Kim Yo-jong (North Korean Party Secretary) issued a statement hours later, stating, “Our government evaluates the president’s direct expression of regret and mention of preventive measures as highly fortunate and a prudent step for his own sake.”
• The line, “Our head of state assessed this as demonstrating the candid and magnanimous attitude of a straightforward person,” also caught attention—implying Kim Jong-un (North Korean State Affairs Commissioner) made this evaluation.
• Yang Mu-jin (professor at the University of North Korean Studies) said, “Kim Jong-un’s direct evaluation of Lee Jae-myong’s remarks is significant,” but added, “Kim Yo-jong’s statement appears more as damage control than a narrative reversal.”
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“Step Down, Jang Dong-hyeok” Demands Met with “The Decision Lies with Voters.”.

• He has no intention of stepping down. Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party Leader) held a Supreme Council meeting in Incheon, but the atmosphere was tense.
• Yoon Sang-hyun (People Power Party MP) said, “Candidates are pushing for a transition to an emergency system.”
• As criticism mounted, Jang Dong-hyeok switched the meeting to closed-door and expelled reporters. Kyunghyang Shinmun assessed, “Support came in, but was met with a straight ball.”
• Related Link.

“Suspicions of Government Meddling in Yoon Suk-yeol Administration’s North Korea Money Transfer Case.”.

• Kwon Young-bin (Deputy Special Prosecutor of the Special Investigation Team) stated, “We confirmed attempts at intervention by the Yoon Suk-yeol administration’s presidential office” and added, “We are treating this as a suspected case of state power abuse.”
• The Ministry of Justice suspended Park Sang-yong (Seoul Central District Prosecutors’ Office prosecutor), who led the investigation into the case.
• The National Intelligence Service announced, “We confirmed that Ri Ho-nam (North Korean agent) did not attend the Philippines event in July 2019, where Kim Sung-tae (then chairman of Ssangbangwool) allegedly handed over $700,000.”
• Park Sang-yong posted on Facebook, “The court accepted the prosecution’s evidence that Lee Hwa-young met Ri Ho-nam in the Philippines and transferred $700,000.”
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Deep Dive.

Iran’s Proposed Negotiation Terms.

• According to IRNA (Iran’s state news agency), Iran is demanding a permanent end to hostilities, not a ceasefire. Discussions have stalled at this point.
• It is demanding reconstruction costs and the lifting of economic sanctions in exchange for allowing passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
• There are also demands to halt hostile actions not only by Iran but also by Lebanon and other regional actors.
• The U.S. has proposed a 45-day ceasefire, but the gap is wide. The U.S. is conditioning the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and a halt to uranium enrichment.
• Moreover, Israel opposes a ceasefire.
• Both the U.S. and Iran are demanding additional conditions beyond a ceasefire and show no willingness to compromise.
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Rescuing Ryan: 48 Hours.

• “God is good” came over the radio. Initially, they suspected it was a trap set by Iranian forces.
• Trump approved the operation after receiving the report. Over 100 special forces personnel, including Navy SEALs, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters were mobilized.
• After confirming the location, B-1 bombers dropped over 100 2,000-pound satellite-guided bombs to block Iranian forces from approaching.
• Fortunately, the officer was rescued successfully, but the biggest crisis came when the transport plane’s wheels got stuck in the mud, nearly stranding them. Three additional transport planes carrying special teams arrived immediately, and after destroying the inoperable transport plane and two Black Hawk helicopters, they returned.
• Iran released photos of the Black Hawks, claiming, “We shot them down.” If the U.S. claim that they abandoned the transport plane due to a broken wheel is true, it’s unclear why the Black Hawks couldn’t take off.
• It was later revealed that the CIA had conducted a deception operation, spreading false intelligence to make it seem like the officer was found elsewhere, diverting Iranian attention.
• The downed F-15E was confirmed to have been hit by a shoulder-fired air defense missile. Its range is only 5–6 km. There’s assessment that a $40,000 missile took down a $100 million fighter jet.
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National Debt Reaches 1,305 Trillion Won.

• It has increased by 129 trillion won in one year. National debt per capita is 25.24 million won.
• The fiscal deficit is 104 trillion won.
• The government pushed for a fiscal rule limiting the deficit to 3% of GDP, but it has become meaningless. A Ministry of Economy and Finance official said, “The fiscal rule is not in a state where we can realistically discuss it, so we will actively participate in the National Assembly’s deliberation process.”
• Hong Suk-cheol (Seoul National University professor) pointed out, “While increased spending is unavoidable given recent circumstances like war, it is regrettable that even minimal discussions to ensure fiscal soundness have disappeared.”
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Constitutional Amendment Bill Heads to Plenary on April 7.

• 187 lawmakers have signed the bill. It passed yesterday’s Cabinet review and approval.
• The quorum for passage is two-thirds of the 295-member assembly, or 197 votes.
• It’s not a single-point issue—more like two key points: adding the spirit of the May 18 Democratic Uprising and the Bu-Ma Democratic Protests to the constitutional preamble, and requiring parliamentary approval for martial law.
• Lee Jae-myung said, “Bipartisan cooperation is needed to open the floodgates for constitutional reform.”
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Another Take.

Bypassing the Red Sea.

• Special envoys for crude oil will be dispatched to oil-producing nations including Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Algeria.
• A new route via Yanbu Port, using Saudi Arabia’s oil pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, will be developed.
• 26 South Korean vessels and 173 South Korean crew members remain stranded in the Strait of Hormuz.
• The South Korean and Japanese governments have stated they will not engage in separate negotiations with Iran.

China Has Been Preparing for This War.

• China is the world’s largest importer of oil and gas. It relies on imports for three-quarters of its oil consumption.
• It has simultaneously increased oil reserves while steadily expanding renewable energy share.
• China produces one-third of the world’s nitrogen fertilizer—80% of which uses coal instead of oil as raw material. Its urea prices are less than half the global average.
• A U.S.-Iran war could significantly accelerate China’s energy self-sufficiency.
• Some say China has nothing to lose in this conflict. It’s virtually the only country that can still import oil via the Strait of Hormuz—and yuan-denominated payments have even increased. Some observers suggest the petrodollar system is shaking.
• Related Link.

Oil Refiners’ First-Quarter Profits: A Blessing or a Mirage?

• First-quarter operating profits are likely to have surged significantly.
• Refining margins—calculated by subtracting crude import costs, operating expenses, and logistics costs from petroleum product prices—have expanded to $40 per barrel since the Middle East crisis, far above the typical $4–5 break-even point.
• A refinery executive interviewed by *The Hankyoreh* said, “We estimate the combined first-quarter operating profit of the four major refiners to be around 3 trillion won.”
• Some explain this as a time-lagged benefit, a temporary accounting effect: if oil prices fall, the gains will reverse as inventory losses.

42% of Income Goes to Mortgage Debt Service.

• Statistics cover only the Seoul region.
• According to the Korea Housing Finance Corporation, Seoul’s housing affordability index jumped to 165.1 in the fourth quarter of last year. This means households are spending 165.1% of the recommended debt burden as principal and interest.
• Since the recommended burden is 25.7%, the calculation shows 42.4% of income is being spent on principal and interest payments.

Ulsan Taehwaru Skyswalk: 7.3 Billion Won for a One-Minute View.

• Though daily average visits are reported at 1,284, most are passersby.
• Criticism abounds that it actually spoils the scenic views of Taehwaru.
• The original Taehwaru pavilion, lost during the Imjin War, was restored in 2014 at a cost of 50.6 billion won.
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The Fix.

Energy Insecurity: Stop Blaming Wars.

• President Lee Jae-myung has repeatedly emphasized energy transition, stating, “The situation is serious enough to keep me awake at night” and ordering, “We must transition to renewable energy faster.”
• According to Refact (a renewable energy fact-check platform), the claim that “the Middle East crisis accelerates renewable energy transition globally” is “largely factual.”
• It is true that electricity prices surged in countries like the UK and Germany, which were highly dependent on Russian LNG during the Ukraine war. The IEA (International Energy Agency) analyzed that solar and wind power saved €100 billion. Without increased renewable energy, Europe’s average wholesale electricity prices would have been 8% higher.
• Germany saw the largest savings. The issue was LNG, and renewable energy at least mitigated the damage.
• Here are the irrefutable facts confirmed by Refact:
• First, South Korea imports 72% of its crude oil from the Middle East—making it the country most exposed to Middle East risks.
• Second, even in South Korea, gas prices surged over 91% within a month of the U.S.-Iran conflict. Although the Middle East accounts for only 15% of Korea’s LNG imports, prices are globally linked. This is not a regional risk issue but a structural problem of fossil fuels.
• Third, if LNG prices rise by 50%, gas power generation costs increase by 32–37%. According to IEEFA analysis, 1 GW of solar power reduces LNG import costs by approximately 4 trillion won.
• Fourth, fossil fuels account for 84% of South Korea’s energy supply.
• Fifth, everyone is accelerating—except South Korea.
• The EU surpassed fossil fuels in wind+solar power generation share last year, reaching 30% of total electricity production. South Korea remains slightly above 10%.
• In an editorial, *Kyunghyang Shinmun* pointed out, “South Korea must recognize that temporary measures like diversifying supply chains and reducing fuel taxes during crises cannot overcome this massive wave.”
• Seok Kwang-hoon (Energy Transition Forum Senior Researcher) stated, “The government and National Assembly should abolish ‘election-driven’ price controls to restore demand management through electricity and gas prices, and focus financial support on vulnerable groups.”
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What About Naphtha? Chosun Ilbo’s Red Herring.

• Citing an anonymous energy expert, the article criticized Lee Jae-myung’s push for renewable energy transition, claiming, “This is an oil crisis” and “South Korea doesn’t generate electricity from oil—suggesting renewables can solve an oil crisis is nonsense.”
• Though it claims “criticism poured in,” it only quotes one source. The expert added, “Renewables can generate electricity but not naphtha,” calling the approach “irrelevant to solving the current crisis.”
• Energy and raw materials are distinct. If half of crude imports are for transport and half for raw materials, reducing transport demand should still be prioritized.
• Oil and LNG are substitutes—when one rises, so does the other. The argument that renewables aren’t a solution because Korea doesn’t use oil for power is a fallacy.
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51 Million Won in Medical Bills, Tears of Undocumented Migrants.

• This is the story of a Bangladeshi migrant worker met by Kyunghyang Shinmun.
• G-1 visa holders (asylum seekers) are, in principle, not allowed to work. For 10 years, he drifted between short-term jobs. He collapsed from acute myocardial infarction and underwent surgery, but the hospital bill came to 51 million won.
• This is because he was not covered by national health insurance and was charged international rates. Foreign nationals with domestic residency can receive health insurance or standard rates, but in practice, international rates are often applied.
• A survey by the Gonggam Occupational and Environmental Medicine Center found that 6 out of 10 undocumented migrants said, “We don’t go to the hospital.” 46% of those who experienced industrial accidents said, “We paid for treatment ourselves.”
• There was also controversy when it was revealed that an undocumented foreign woman was billed 20 million won for childbirth costs.
• South Korea has approximately 400,000 undocumented migrants. Thailand has the most at 140,000, followed by Vietnam and China at 80,000 and 60,000 respectively.
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Bread Storage Solution Boosts Local Business Sales.

• This is the story of Daejeon’s Seongsimdang.
• The idea to create a bread storage space emerged from a Hanbat University project class, as travelers struggled to carry bread bags.
• The class uses a speed-dating format to generate ideas and expand them through immediate feedback.
• According to Kyunghyang Shinmun, local business sales increased around the storage facility.
• With lighter hands after leaving bread bags, visitors reportedly make additional stops at nearby cafes, restaurants, and underground markets.
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65% Recidivism Rate for Mentally Ill Offenders.

• Lee Byung-yeol (Director of the National Forensic Hospital) proposed, “Just as we conduct psychological autopsies on suicide victims, we should begin studying murderers.”
• The National Forensic Hospital addresses inmates by name rather than number. The recidivism rate is said to be one-third of the general rate.
• Staff are trained in self-defense to protect themselves against inmate assaults. Officially recognized injuries among staff have decreased by 80%.
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The 12-Month Golden Window for Adoption.

• Once a baby passes 12 months—the age when attachment solidifies—adoption becomes difficult. This is why the first year is called the golden window.
• According to Lee Young-tae (Korea Ilbo columnist), since the government declared state responsibility last July, zero children born under protected childbirth have been adopted. All 280 remain in protective facilities. For these children, a single day can feel like a year.
• “Having the state declare responsibility, then halting adoptions for eight months, leaking sensitive information, and tolerating abusive language is no trivial matter. Would a president who knows when to speak bluntly in the right place make a difference?”
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ICYMI.

Some Questions About Artemis II.

• Why no moon landing? Not ready yet. Artemis II’s significance lies in humans directly viewing the far side of the moon (and being sent there). Artemis III will dock with a lunar lander in Earth’s orbit for testing before returning. Human moon landings won’t happen until Artemis IV. The timeline has been delayed significantly from the original plan.
• Why is the far side harder to reach? Because communication with Earth is cut off when behind the moon. (The moon’s rotation and orbital periods are the same, so Earth always sees the same side.) Chang’e-4, which landed on the moon in 2019, solved this by deploying a relay satellite named Queqiao (Magpie Bridge) at the Lagrangian point L2. Artemis’ close-altitude orbit of 6,500 km means communication blackouts last only 40 minutes—no relay satellite needed.
• (The Lagrangian point is a balanced spot between two celestial bodies where gravity effectively cancels out, creating a stable point. Queqiao is positioned at L2, 64,000 km away—a vantage point where both Earth and the moon are visible.)
• If the moon landing 54 years ago was real, why haven’t we returned? Because there was no need. The mission achieved its goal at enormous cost. Now, it’s different: building infrastructure for a massive space industry, not a single project.
• How is the money made? Space is still B2G. NASA funds it. Launch vehicles and spacecraft were built by Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Airbus. SpaceX will build the lunar lander for Artemis III. The project has cost $93 billion through last year.
• Can we land and return? Apollo 11 in 1969 left the command module in lunar orbit, detached the lander, and landed. After 21.5 hours, the lander’s ascent module lifted off, docked with the command module, and returned.
• What’s changed since 1969? From Artemis IV, Starship (the lunar lander) and storage tanks will be pre-launched into space, then refueled by tankers. Filling one storage tank requires over ten tankers. Once ready, Orion with astronauts will launch and dock with Starship. SpaceX claims reusable tankers, storage tanks, and Starships will drastically cut costs.
• Previously, spacecraft became scrap after fuel ran out. Now, refueling in space allows reuse like a bus route.
• Back then, it was an event. Now, it’s a business. Elon Musk (SpaceX CEO) is pushing hard, and even estranged Donald Trump (U.S. President) is showing strong interest.
• What’s the endgame? Lower transport costs enable mining helium-3 on the moon, building space data centers, and other long-imagined projects. The U.S.-China hegemony battle has moved to space.

Art Sonje Center’s New Director: Jang Han-na.

• She is the first female director and the youngest ever, at 44.
• The Art Sonje Center has seen growing deficits since the 2007 Opera House fire, with cumulative losses reaching 70.3 billion won as of 2023.
• She was nine years old when she performed at the center in 1992. “I hope to contribute more deeply and broadly to the field where I’ve built 32 years of experience,” she said.

Worth Reading.

Fertilizer Is the Problem.

• Global value chains nurture risks starting from the weakest links. The world is in an uproar over oil, but fertilizer may be a bigger issue. 49% of urea and 30% of ammonia exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Fertilizer has no strategic reserves, no alternatives, and no pipelines.
• Hong Ki-bin (Director of the Global Political Economy Research Institute) noted, “The countries with the highest Engel coefficients will feel this shock first and most deeply.”
• “While German households perceive a 30% rise in food prices as mere inconvenience, for Nigerian working-class families, it’s a threat to survival.”
• The issue doesn’t stop at fertilizer prices. Grain majors like Cargill, Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, and Louis Dreyfus are likely to use fertilizer costs as a pretext to hike grain prices. These four giants control over 70% of global grain trade.
• “Global supply chains are vulnerable to worldwide social unrest, and the shock arrives faster than expected. Financial markets know this, and the structure of volatile futures markets hints at it. A ‘gray rhino’—an obvious threat approaching, yet lacking effective levers to stop it. What levers do we have now?”
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Kim Jae-seop’s Pence Rule.

• The Pence Rule originates from Mike Pence (then U.S. vice president) saying, “I don’t eat dinner alone with women except my wife.”
• Kim Jae-seop (People Power Party lawmaker)’s allegation against Jung Won-o (former Seongdong District mayor) over a Mexico business trip ultimately centers on “Why was a woman there?”
• It’s all true: the trip passed through the resort town of Cancún, the documents listed him as male, and he was promoted afterward. But the stench Kim Jae-seop is emitting stems from the employee’s gender.
• Choi Moon-sun (The Korea Ilbo columnist) noted, “Investigating the allegation is one thing, but holding Kim Jae-seop accountable for raising suspicions in a way that discriminates against and insults women is another.”
• Do we want a world where fear of such misunderstandings leads to excluding employees of a specific gender?
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What’s Happening at U.S. Universities Now.

• Frank Bruni (Duke University professor) says, “I’ve never felt so powerless.” Because he cannot confidently say the world will improve.
• Robert Pondiscio (American Enterprise Institute researcher) wrote in “The Unbearable Gloom of American Education,” “I struggle to shake the feeling that I’m indoctrinating students with the view that the world is broken, corrupt, dangerous, and hurtling toward ruin.”
• Pondiscio emphasized that optimism is a civic virtue. “No society can expect children to engage with a world they believe has already given up on them.”
• Bruni’s conclusion: “Despite all the trials this country is enduring, we must convey to students that opportunities still abound and that hope outweighs pain. It’s uncertain, but not bleak. Students need agility and perseverance. Those of us in front of them must work harder to find an honest balance between confronting uncomfortable realities and offering reasons not to despair.”
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