Iran Attack to Continue 4-5 Weeks.

• Donald Trump (U.S. President) posted on Truth Social: “It will continue until all objectives are met.”
• At a press conference, he said, “Other presidents said there would be no ground troops, but I have no ‘nausea’ about ground troops” and “I can send them if needed.” Marco Rubio (U.S. Secretary of State) said, “The real strong attack hasn’t even started yet.”
• Ali Larijani (Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council) stated that day, “We will not negotiate with the U.S.”
• Pete Hegses (U.S. Secretary of Defense) said, “This operation has clear objectives: to destroy Iran’s missile threats, navy, and eliminate its nuclear capabilities.”
• Iranian elementary school casualties have risen to 165. Iran rests on Thursdays and Fridays, attending school on Saturdays. The school was near a Revolutionary Guard base, suggesting a possible friendly-fire incident, but neither the U.S. nor Israel has explained the cause.
• Related Link.
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LNG Prices Show Signs of Sharp Surge.

• Analysis suggests prices could spike up to 130% if the Strait of Hormuz closes.
• QatarEnergy has halted LNG production.
• Brent crude futures have risen by as much as 13%.
• South Korea holds 200-day oil reserves. 34% of crude imports come from Saudi Arabia.

Iran Gets Paid, China Gets the Tears.

• The U.S. has sanctioned Iran, yet China has been purchasing Iranian crude at discounts below global market rates.
• China imports 80% of Iran’s exported oil—an average of 1.38 million barrels per day.
• To compound matters, Venezuela’s oil shipments to China have also halted.

No Black Monday.

• South Korea was closed for trading yesterday, but Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng indices rebounded after sharp declines.
• The downturn was attributed to well-known risks and the perception that a swift resolution was likely.
• Lee Kyung-min (Daishin Securities analyst) advised, “Short-term adjustments are inevitable, but excessive fear should be restrained.”
• Kookmin Bank warned that if Middle Eastern oil facilities are damaged, the exchange rate could surge to 1,540 won.

What Matters Now.

Cut the Internet First.

• Hacked the Badesaba prayer-time app to display an alarm reading, “The hour of judgment has come.”
• Cut internet access simultaneously, dropping connectivity rates to 1%.
• Iran’s potential cyber retaliation is also being discussed.
• Related Link.

Nukes Imminent? No Evidence.

• “They had no intention of stopping their nuclear research and no intention of saying they wouldn’t possess nuclear weapons.” Trump’s stated rationale for attacking Iran.
• Abbas Araghchi (Iranian Foreign Minister) disagrees: “We left Geneva with a consensus that an agreement was within reach and would be finalized in the next round,” yet “Trump bombed the negotiating table.”
• Ted Cruz (U.S. Senator) countered, “There is absolutely no indication that nuclear weaponization is imminent.”

Where Did the Enriched Uranium Go?

• Enough uranium to build 10 nuclear weapons has gone missing.
• Critics argue this makes diplomatic resolution of nuclear proliferation more difficult. Joseph Rogers (Deputy Director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies) warned, “It could degenerate into a sprawling, decentralized conflict that is difficult to manage.”

Why Target Dubai Airport?

• Iran is attacking neighboring Middle Eastern states including the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Dubai Airport remains in a state of total flight suspension.
• The Wall Street Journal analyzed, “This is to demonstrate that if we collapse, you will collapse with us.” Warnings also emerge that Iran may face fierce backlash and isolation.
• Britain, France, and Germany issued a joint statement, cautioning, “We are reviewing defensive and proportionate measures to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities.”

Deep Dive.

Why the Delay in Naming No Tae-ak’s Successor?

• No Tae-ak (Supreme Court Justice) retires today. Before his departure, the Supreme Court must nominate a successor, but no candidate has even been finalized.
• The Supreme Court Justice Nomination Committee recommended four candidates in January, but speculation grows that Cho Hee-dae (Chief Justice) and the Blue House are failing to coordinate.
• They are Son Bong-gi (Senior Judge, Daegu District Court), Yoon Sung-sik (Senior Judge, Seoul High Court), Park Soon-young (Judge, Seoul High Court), and Kim Min-gi (Judge, Seoul High Court). Yoon is seen as centrist, while the others lean progressive.
• In an editorial, The Hankyoreh criticized, “The Chief Justice’s excessive influence—exerted from the committee’s formation stage—must be curtailed.”
• Related Link.
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Park Hong-geun Nominated as Minister of Planning and Finance.

• This is the position vacated by Lee Hye-hoon (former People Power Party lawmaker). He served as Chief of Staff to Lee Jae-myung during the 2022 presidential election.
• The nominee for Minister of Oceans and Fisheries is Hwang Jong-woo (Chairman of International Cooperation, Korea Maritime Cooperation Center), an internal promotion.
• Jeong Il-yeon (lawyer at Law Firm Basis) was appointed as Anti-Corruption and Civil Rights Commission Chairperson. She is the attorney of Lee Hwa-young (former Vice Governor of Gyeonggi Province). Lee Kyu-yeon (Blue House Senior Secretary for Public Communication) stated, “We determined that she possesses the fairness, independence, capability, expertise, and integrity required, with no elements that could undermine these qualities.”
• Backlash also surrounds the appointment of Lee Byung-tae (former KAIST professor), who sparked controversy with remarks like “collaboration with Japan was natural” and calling the Sewol ferry disaster memorial events “a symbol of vulgarity,” as Vice Chairperson of the Regulatory Rationalization Committee.
• Related Link.

North Korea Is Not Iran.

• It is a country with over 40 nuclear warheads. Yesterday, Kim Jong-un (North Korean State Affairs Commissioner) inspected a cement factory in full view.
• When the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003, Kim Jong-il (then North Korean National Defense Commission Chairman) fled to Mount Paektu.
• Choi Yong-hwan (Deputy Director of the National Security Strategy Institute) stated, “Kim Jong-un also knows that the longer time passes, the less room there is for negotiation,” adding, “Rather than taking an ultra-hardline stance, he will likely try to manage the Trump era while leaving room for negotiations.”
• Related Link.

Nearly Half of Spending Goes to Food, Clothing, and Shelter.

• The bottom 20% income bracket spends 58% on these essentials. Those over 60 spend 64%.
• The national average for monthly food, clothing, and shelter costs is 1.4 million won, with meals alone at 890,000 won.
• Lee Jung-hee (Professor, Chung-Ang University) noted, “There is a need to expand agricultural and food support, such as food stamps.”

Another Take.

Did Lee Jae-myung Avoid Shaking Hands with Jeong Cheong-rae? A Strange Incident.

• “There’s no scene of him shaking hands with Jeong Cheong-rae. It looks like he’s avoiding him.”
• Kim Eo-jun (CEO of Ddanzi Ilbo) casually remarked on News Factory. “I checked other broadcasts too.”
• The suspicion arose that in footage of Lee Jae-myung (President) departing for Singapore, only the part involving Jeong Cheong-rae was deleted.
• Choi Min-hee (Democratic Party lawmaker) left this message on the Ddanzi Ilbo bulletin board:
• “KTV, verifying facts. This is Choi Min-hee. It’s difficult for the leadership office to step in, and the party’s official structure can’t easily intervene, so my office is confirming the facts.”
• It turned out the KTV camera arrived late and missed the shot.
• On the ‘Jae-myung’s Village’ cafe, users demanded a “resident vote” to expel Choi Min-hee, deeming her behavior intolerable.
• Ultimately, Choi Min-hee posted on the Ddanzi Ilbo bulletin board, “They say close-up filming sometimes unavoidably misses moments,” resolving the issue. But from the start, it was a strange conspiracy theory, a strange response, and a strange conclusion.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
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Song Young-gil and Kim Nam-jun’s Book Launch Events.

• Song Young-gil (former Democratic Party leader), eyeing a run in Gyeyang, and Kim Nam-jun (former Blue House spokesperson) held book launch events just one day apart.
• Jeong Cheong-rae (Democratic Party leader) is in a position to mediate. If a primary occurs, Song Young-gil is likely to win. Some speculate, “The very idea of a primary suggests a clash between Jeong Cheong-rae and Lee Jae-myung.”
• In a Media Tomato poll, suitability ratings for the next Democratic Party leader showed Song Young-gil at 19.4%, Jeong Cheong-rae at 21.6%, and Kim Min-seok (Prime Minister) at 18.8%—a tight race within the margin of error.
• Related Link.

What Happens After May 9th?

• An owner of three homes selling a 1 billion won house after 15 years of holding it for 2 billion won must pay 682.26 million won in capital gains tax. If sold before May 9th, only 257.01 million won is due. (Applies to regulated-area housing.)
• After May 9th, two-home owners face a 20% surcharge on the base rate, while three-or-more homeowners face a 30% surcharge. Long-term holding tax deductions also disappear.
• Related Link.

The Fix.

The Vanishing Act of Unpaid Wages.

• If the client pays directly, the problem disappears.
• Since Korea National Railroad Agency began paying subcontracted workers directly, there have been no cases of unpaid wages.
• A wage-segregated payment system is also needed: a method where the primary contractor separately pays wages and equipment rental fees.
• The government’s advance payment system has proven effective: a scheme where the government pays unpaid wages on behalf of employers and recovers them later, though the recovery rate is only around 30%.
• Park Rae-gun (Director, Human Rights Foundation People) pointed out, “There are limits to relying on taxpayer money to cover these gaps.”

ICYMI.

South Korean Film Revenue Halved Pre-Pandemic.

• South Korean film revenue fell from 970.8 billion won in 2019 to 419.1 billion won last year.
• Foreign film revenue dropped from 943.2 billion won to 627.9 billion won.
• Audience numbers for South Korean films fell from 115.62 million to 43.58 million, while foreign films dropped from 111.06 million to 62.51 million.
• The number of domestic releases decreased from 817 in 2021 to 539 last year, while foreign releases grew significantly—from 1,039 to 1,095—nearly matching domestic levels.

Last Year’s Pro Baseball Attendance Hits 12.31 Million.

• An all-time record.
• Samsung Lions led with 1.64 million spectators, followed by LG Twins (1.54 million) and Lotte Giants (1.51 million).
• Cumulative attendance: LG first at 36.05 million, followed by Lotte (32.93 million) and Doosan (30.47 million).

Today’s Blood Moon Total Eclipse.

• The moon will be obscured by Earth’s shadow for one hour, from 8:04 PM to 9:03 PM.
• It will be visible in the eastern sky at 24 degrees elevation.
• A total lunar eclipse on the first full moon of the year—the first in 36 years since 1990.

The Era of 8 Million National Pension Beneficiaries.

• Recipients aged 80 and older have surpassed 1 million.
• The National Pension Service’s investment returns reached 232 trillion won last year.
• Cumulative reserves stand at 1,458 trillion won.
• Analysis suggests raising the annual return rate to 6.5% could delay fund depletion from 2057 to 2090.
• Related Link.

BTS Concert Draws 260,000.

• 894 restrooms have been secured.
• It will be held for one hour starting at 8:00 PM on the 21st. The main stage spans 27,000 seats from Gwanghwamun Plaza to Taepyeongno near Seoul Plaza.
• Gwanghwamun Station, Gyeongbokgung Station, and City Hall Station will have subway trains pass through without stopping.

Sleeping Like Ronaldo.

• Cristiano Ronaldo (soccer player) sleeps in five 90-minute segments.
• The key is adhering to the 90-minute cycle—not just splitting sleep arbitrarily.
• A full cycle of light sleep, deep sleep, and REM sleep takes about 90 minutes, and Ronaldo strategically inserts 90-minute naps between irregular schedules to maximize recovery.
• Critics argue, “This is just a superstar’s eccentricity; ordinary people should not imitate it.”
• Ronaldo blocks electronic devices and creates total darkness 90 minutes before sleep.
• Joo Eun-yeon (Samsung Seoul Hospital professor) recommended redesigning lifestyle habits.
• First, muscle strength is the ultimate sleeping pill. Strength training leads to deeper sleep.
• Second, wake-up time matters. Fix your rising time.
• Third, get morning sunlight. It’s a switch that schedules melatonin release 15 hours later.
• Fourth, avoid the three evils: late dinners, alcohol, and intense exercise.
• Fifth, lower your body temperature.
• Related Link.

Lula’s Letter, a Fabrication.

• Some argue we should avoid the term “fake news” because it breeds distrust in real journalism—but this is genuinely fake.
• A letter supposedly written by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (President of Brazil) circulated on social media, but it was unverified. It roughly read:
• “I witnessed a nation’s true dignity. Among the white gloves handed to me by Korea’s protocol team, the left glove lacked a fifth finger—meticulously crafted for my four fingers. I will never forget that Seoul morning when my missing digit felt warm for the first time in 60 years.”
• “Korea’s greatness lies not merely in semiconductors or melodies. It arises from the power of empathy: sensing unspoken pain, identifying voids, and gently filling them—the true force behind today’s Korea.”
• Lee Hoon-gi (Democratic Party lawmaker) fell for it and shared the post on Facebook; many still circulate it.
• The four-finger glove was reportedly prepared by Brazil’s own protocol team.

Worth Reading.

First Strike, Then Build a Pro-U.S. Regime.

• It rarely works.
• In 1954, they supported Guatemalan rebels to replace the president. In 1970, they incited a military coup in Chile to oust Allende. In 2003, they invaded Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein. In 2011, they overthrew Libya’s Gaddafi.
• Guatemala endured a long civil war, and Chile faced prolonged political turmoil. The Taliban seized Afghanistan. Venezuela still has Maduro’s No. 2 in power.
• Ahn Hong-wook (The Kyunghyang Shinmun columnist) noted, “Trump is playing a dangerous gamble.”
• A Reuters+Ipsos poll found only 1 in 4 Americans (27%) supported the Iran airstrike.
• Related Link.

Inequality Fears Outweigh ‘Yoon Again’.

• Kim Min-ah (Kyunghyang Shinmun columnist) emphasized, “Widening polarization is a predictable future—we must rein in the situation before it’s too late.”
• Lee Jae-myung (President) once stated in his inauguration address, “An unequal society, meeting divisive politics, has bred extremism that threatens social survival.” If Lee’s drive is any indication, there’s no reason it can’t be done.
• Joseph Stiglitz (Columbia University professor) proposed, “Inequality is not inevitable, nor is it an immutable law—another world is possible.”
• Kim Min-ah stressed, “We must revisit financial investment income taxes.” In an era celebrating a Kospi 10,000, how many investors would really sell their Samsung Electronics shares out of fear of taxes?
• Related Link.

Have You Noticed Jjajangmyeon Prices Falling?

• Seoul apartment prices have risen more than jjajangmyeon prices. Compared to 1980, jjajangmyeon prices increased about 15-fold, while Seoul apartment prices surged roughly 50-fold.
• Seo Kyung-ho (JoongAng Ilbo columnist) acknowledged, “Normalizing property taxes is the right direction,” but warned, “I’m worried the tax burden might shift to tenants, who are the housing-vulnerable.” The tax exemption for single-homeowners and priority youth housing allocations also require fundamental review. The argument is that steadily increasing high-quality public rental housing is the correct path.
• “Both real estate taxes and housing supply must be consistent to succeed—like jjajangmyeon prices, which keep rising steadily through recessions and booms.”
• Related Link.

Companies Reducing Board Seats to Seven.

• It’s a loophole to neutralize cumulative voting. Even if minority shareholders propose director candidates, the agenda can be rejected on grounds of no vacancies. The voting threshold to elect a single candidate also rises.
• EcoPro, KakaoPay, and Krafton set their board seats to seven, while Celltrion, Hanwha Galleria, and Otsuka reduced existing caps to match the seven-seat limit.
• Kim Woo-chan (Korea University professor) stressed, “Any motion to cap board seats or extend terms must be defeated.”
• Related Link.