Opening the Stock Window Feels Daunting.

• KOSPI plummeted 3.5% last Friday, closing at 5,730.7.
• Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell 3.0% and 7.1%, respectively.
• Alphabet dropped 1.4% on Friday after a 12.6% plunge on Thursday. Philip Schiller (Alphabet Chief Business Officer) said, “AI mode usage is growing rapidly, but its ad monetization level remains lower than traditional search.”
• All three major US indices declined last Friday: S&P 500 (-1.8%), Dow (-1.1%), and Nasdaq (-2.9%). The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index tumbled 7.2%.
• Intel crashed 29.6% in a single day—the biggest drop since 1974—after its Q4 revenue forecast fell far short of market expectations.
• Cash flow has emerged as a more critical keyword than profits.
• The Bank of Korea warned, “As Korea is both a major beneficiary of the AI boom and deeply integrated into global supply chains, any real-economy or financial shock could amplify transmission effects more than in the past.”
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What Matters Now.

Chosun Ilbo Pushes Back on Reverse Discrimination Claims.

• President Yoon’s criticism of multicultural privileges has led to an unusual rebuttal from conservative media.
• Lee Jae-myung (President) continues to dominate the discourse. He argued, “Some policies must not exceed their original intent, becoming excessive privileges or reverse discrimination against domestic families.”
• Chosun Ilbo countered, “While economically stable multicultural families have increased, many still struggle to adapt to Korean society.”
• Chosun Ilbo emphasized, “The claim that all multicultural family benefits are provided regardless of income is false.” Educational activity funds, for example, require meeting specific income criteria.
• JoongAng Ilbo editorialized, “When the president presents unripe ideas or policy directions based on inaccurate information, it inevitably creates confusion and burdens in governance.”
• Kyunghyang Shinmun editorialized, “It is premature to discuss abolishing support policies for the underprivileged—crafted through years of social debate—based on opinions from a specific community.” It added, “The president, tasked with national unity, must exercise restraint and caution in communication to avoid messages that fuel division.”
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President’s Approval Rating at 39%.

• Gallup Korea results. Democratic Party and People Power Party support rates stand at 35% and 30%, respectively.
• Democratic Party support among men in their 20s hit 10%.
• The National Indicator Survey (NBS) showed the president’s approval rating at 46%.
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Lotte Liaison Soldiers Acquitted of Treason Charges.

• Eight military commanders, including Koo Sam-hoi (then 2nd Armored Brigade Commander) and Bang Jeong-hwan (then Defense Ministry Innovation Planning Officer), accused of participating in a rebellion’s critical missions, were acquitted. The first trial court ruled it difficult to recognize intent of rebellion or purpose of constitutional disruption.
• “The orders were suddenly given, and they appeared unaware of specific details,” was the reasoning.
• All eight have been dismissed or removed from their posts. Koo Sam-hoi and Ahn Mu-seong (then 9th Airborne Brigade Commander) are currently contesting disciplinary actions in court.
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Kim Ki-hyun Also Acquitted.

• Kim Ki-hyun (People Power Party lawmaker)’s wife was involved in a case where a bag worth 2.67 million won was delivered to Kim Keon-hee.
• The first trial court ruled, “It is difficult to convict solely based on the fact that they are spouses without objective circumstances or evidence.” Kim Ki-hyun was acquitted, while his wife received a 5 million won fine.
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Deep Dive.

The Era of $1 Trillion in Exports.

• Cumulative exports reached $930 billion by October. It is highly likely to surpass $1 trillion in November. Only the U.S., China, and Germany have exceeded $1 trillion.
• Semiconductors account for nearly half.
• Exports are strong, but consumption is weak. Private and household consumption declined by 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively, compared to the previous quarter.
• According to the Bank of Korea, this year’s economic growth rate is projected to reach 3.6%.
• Yang Joon-seok (Catholic University professor) stated, “It is fortunate that the semiconductor industry is performing well, but on the other hand, it tends to overshadow structural problems in our economy.”
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821 Trillion Won Budget Review: Future Response Fund Sparks Debate.

• Government proposal is 12.8% higher than this year. The Future Response Fund amounts to 162 trillion won.
• Kim Nam-geun (Democratic Party lawmaker) said, “This is a time to invest aggressively, even without excess tax revenue.”
• People Power Party plans to cut or adjust 134 trillion won by combining 104 trillion won in surplus Future Response Fund reserves, reductions in individual projects, and savings from national bond interest.
• Choi Bo-yun (People Power Party spokesperson) noted, “A boom is temporary, but once cash-based spending starts, it’s hard to reverse.”
• Jeong Tae-ho (Democratic Party lawmaker) said, “Arguing that all increased tax revenue should go to debt repayment seems extreme.”
• The Budget and Accounts Committee plans to hold policy questioning on November 4–5, departmental reviews on November 9–12, budget adjustment subcommittee meetings on November 16–20, and a full committee vote on November 30.
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Additional Tax Revenue: 158+57 Trillion Won.

• National Assembly Budget Office projects additional tax revenues of 158 trillion won for next year and 57 trillion won for 2028.
• It expects no additional tax revenue from 2029 onward—effectively a temporary revenue source.
• Analysis shows 47% of the Future Response Fund’s 45 trillion won in project costs are recurring expenditures.
• The Budget Office noted, “Programs like the Basic Child Allowance and Youth Future Savings Account are difficult to reduce once established.”
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Was North Korea Behind Binance’s $630M Hack?

• It was drained in 20 minutes. While $300 million in assets were frozen, a significant portion had already disappeared.
• Binance is the world’s largest virtual asset exchange. It announced, “All losses will be covered by company funds and SAFU (its user protection fund),” but concerns persist that it was caught completely off guard.
• TRM Labs identified North Korea’s hacking group TraderTraitor as the likely perpetrator, citing premeditation, signature forgery, and tactics to evade fund tracking.
• Ari Redbord (TRM Labs Global Policy Lead) stated, “North Korea took in a single night what it stole over the past six years combined.”
• The U.S. FBI called it “the largest bank heist in human history.”
• The Financial Times noted, “North Korean hackers face no fear of punishment, making them bolder than hackers from other nations.”
• Observers also suggest, “AI has given hackers wings.”
• Some estimates claim 85% of this year’s virtual asset hacks were North Korean operations. Reports indicate one-third of its foreign currency income comes from stolen crypto.
• In an editorial, Dong-A Ilbo emphasized, “The nation must reassess its systemic response to state-sponsored hacking.”
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Accelerating the Era of Monthly Rent.

• Monthly rent now accounts for 53% of all jeonse+monthly rent contracts.
• As of September, the average monthly rent for Seoul apartments is 1,660,000 won—15% higher than a year ago.
• Seoul apartment sale prices have risen for 90 consecutive weeks.
• Lee Eun-hyung (Research Fellow at the Korea Construction Policy Institute) said, “Seoul’s housing demand is overwhelming, but government policies have cut off jeonse supply, pushing tenants toward monthly rent and effectively accelerating the monthly rent era.”
• KyeongHyang Shinmun warned, “Jeonse and monthly rent instability will worsen next year.” A real estate expert interviewed by KyeongHyang Shinmun added, “The government seems to ignore the severity of the jeonse+monthly rent shortage,” asking, “So why focus only on suppressing sale prices?”
• Lee Jae-myung (President) posted on X, “On the arduous path to normalizing asset markets, we are enduring now—after this period of patience, the truth will become clear.”
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Another Take.

From Communication Channels to Battle Axes.

• Even within the Democratic Party, there is growing concern over the president’s social media use.
• Shin Hyun-young (Democratic Party spokesperson) stated, “Given the risk of misinterpretation during transmission, more refinement is needed in communication.”
• Chosun Ilbo criticized, “Not a single concession.”
• Even on weekends, Lee Jae-myung (president)’s X never rests. It recently noted, “Dogmatic attitudes that block the very identification of problems could undermine the original intent of embracing multicultural families as equal citizens.”
• Park Soo-jin (Hankyoreh Social Policy & Gender Team Leader) observed, “The president’s inflammatory language pours fuel on the already raging ‘xenophobic’ fire.”
• A senior Democratic Party lawmaker interviewed by Chosun Ilbo remarked, “It’s probably past the point of anyone being able to stop him,” adding, “I’m worried it could lead to a disaster.”
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Lee Jae-myung Is Isolated.

• Observers note that communication channels only highlight the president’s growing isolation.
• Kang Byung-han (Kyunghyang Shinmun political editor) warned, “The president’s voice was clear, but the Blue House staff, relevant ministries, and the ruling party appeared disconnected,” adding, “Ironically, the more direct the president’s communication, the less room there may be for mediation and deliberation in governance.”
• When the president begins responding to every claim and report, the priority of agendas shifts. Concerns also arise that the consistency, stability, and predictability of government messaging could weaken.
• Lee O-seong (Sisa in Focus editor-in-chief) suggested, “Social media is eroding the president’s composure,” and urged, “He should reduce social media use and conduct interviews with the press.” Since taking office, Lee Jae-myung has not given a single solo interview to Korean media outside joint press conferences.
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“I Personally Believe.”.

• Visiting Cheongsong and Yeongyang counties, which are piloting universal basic income projects, he said, “The more you spend of what you receive, the more money circulates and revitalizes the local economy.” Both counties have been distributing 200,000 won monthly to all residents since June this year and October last year, respectively.
• Lee Jae-myung stated, “Considering regional balanced development, preventing rural decline, and enabling a more leisurely life for people, this is a highly useful project that deserves top priority.”
• The pilot program is planned to expand from 17 counties this year to 35 counties next year.
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Averaging 6.6 Years in One Job.

• Last year, South Korea’s average tenure for wage workers increased to 6.6 years—yet ranked 26th among 27 OECD countries. Only Türkiye (5.7 years) had shorter tenure.
• South Korea’s tenure has risen for four consecutive years since 2021 (5.9 years). Italy: 12.1 years, France: 10.2 years, Germany: 10.0 years.
• Annual average working hours for wage workers were 1,846—4th highest among 35 comparable countries. 548 hours longer than Germany, 232 hours longer than Japan.
• South Korea’s temporary worker ratio was the highest at 27.5%. Japan: 14.2%, Germany: 11.5%.
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Evidence Tainted by Prosecutors Cannot Be Used in Court.

• There is an online sales fraud case transferred to the prosecution. When the victim attempted to submit new evidence, they were directed to go to the police. Under the revised Criminal Procedure Act, statements or materials secured by the prosecution cannot be used as evidence in court.
• Ahn Mi-hyun (Deputy Chief Prosecutor, Cheonan Branch of Daejeon District Prosecutors’ Office) said, “Even on internal prosecution bulletin boards, opinions were divided: some argued that the prosecution should not accept materials and instead direct submission to the police, while others suggested accepting them but also requiring police submission.”
• Kim Sang-hyun (Korea University professor) stated, “Prosecutors securing evidence without investigative authority itself constitutes a violation of the law.”
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One Month of the Prosecution and Corruption Investigation Office: Chaos Persists.

• According to the National Police Agency, supplementary investigation requests from the prosecution increased by 60% in October. The structure has shifted to requiring prosecutors to demand supplementary investigations from the police instead of conducting them directly.
• 36% of arrest warrants requested by the police to the prosecution were rejected.
• The Corruption Investigation Office is still reorganizing. One official said, “It might take several more months before the office can function properly.”
• The outline of the Corruption Investigation Office’s first case remains unclear. Kyunghyang Shinmun criticized, “A month after its launch, the office is still rummaging through cases—a ‘case shopping’ spectacle.”
• Lee Geun-woo (Professor, Gachon University) said, “The structure—where police display cases like merchandise and the Corruption Investigation Office picks those it likes—made the ping-ponging of cases inevitable,” adding, “Eventually, police might refuse to accept complaints, saying, ‘Submit them to the Corruption Investigation Office.’”
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Diplomatic Travel Budget: 65.6 Billion KRW.

• 29 billion KRW was allocated in the main budget, with an additional 36.6 billion KRW from contingency funds. 23 countries were visited over 14 trips.
• Next year’s budget is 65.3 billion KRW.
• The departure cycle was 35 days for Lee Jae-myung (President), 44 days for Yoon Suk-yeol (former president), and 54 days for Moon Jae-in (former president).
• Lee Jae-myung posted on X, “As the saying goes, ‘A Buddha sees a Buddha, a pig sees a pig’—people only see what they know, so please understand. I emphasized the ‘intense pre-trip preparations, long-haul flights, packed official schedules without a single free hour, and frequent IV drips due to heavy workloads, even nosebleeds during overseas trips.’”
• Woo Sung-wan (National Security Advisor) stated, “South Korea’s international standing has risen significantly, so beyond regular summits like the G7, G20, NATO, APEC, ASEAN, and UN General Assembly, many countries are now actively requesting visits.”
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Blue Wave? Blue Flood?

• ‘Blue wave’ refers to Democratic gains, while ‘blue flood’ describes a Trump-level rout where Democrats sweep both Senate and House.
• Trump’s remark—“Pretend I’m on the ticket”—could drag down Republicans. The Guardian analyzed, “Trump has turned local elections into a national referendum.”
• In a Reuters+Ipsos poll, Democratic and Republican support stood at 47% and 36%, respectively. Trump’s approval was 32%.
• Elaine Kamarck (Brookings Institution researcher) noted, “There’s a very clear link between Trump’s behavior and what people dislike.”
• Chris Matthews (political commentator) argued, “The economy matters far more than MAGA,” predicting, “People will vote against Trump.”
• Immigration issues and Latino voter defections are wildcards. Some even forecast Republicans losing Texas, a traditional stronghold.
• Lee Jun-ung (Seoul National University professor) remarked, “Texas voters disillusioned with Trump might have had an epiphany, but given the polarization seen in 2020 or 2024, the lead might not be real.”
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Not Lame Duck, but ‘Angry Duck’?

• A president who loses congressional majority typically attempts compromise with the opposition. Trump may differ. Observers suggest he is more likely to choose confrontation over cooperation.
• Steve Bannon (former White House Chief Strategist) said, “The small-donor base has evaporated,” adding, “MAGA forces despise the White House state dinners and the private jets received from Gulf states.”
• Even if Democrats hold the majority, Trump could veto every bill. He might also cross lines in foreign policy.
• Chris Coons (Democratic Senator) noted, “The two impeachment trials during Trump’s first term made him a martyr,” and stressed, “If Democrats hold the majority, they must focus on oversight and holding him accountable.”

The Republican Party Bears Significant Responsibility.

• The New York Times is fully committed to framing this as a referendum on the Republican Party.
• In an editorial, the Times argued, “They must bear responsibility for failing to stop Trump.” While the Democratic Party has many flaws, the paper insists it is the only viable alternative to Trump.
• Controlling the House allows for oversight via hearings, subpoenas, and budget reviews. With the Senate, they could also influence high-level appointments and judicial confirmations.
• The Times emphasized, “When democracy begins to tilt toward authoritarianism, congressional elections can become the most critical turning point.”
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If the GOP Loses, It’s Six Years of Fallout.

• The U.S. holds elections every two years. Midterms renew one-third of the Senate and all House seats.
• Senators serve six-year terms; representatives serve two-year terms.
• Oren Cass (American Compass economist) analyzed, “If Democrats flip Republican safe seats this year, it could impact the presidency even after Trump’s successor.”
• Of the 35 Senate seats up for election, 22 are Republican-held. If Democrats gain at least four more, the majority flips.
• Losing even one seat in longtime GOP strongholds like Texas or Kansas carries weight—it could mean a six-year imbalance of power.

OpenAI’s Funding Fall Short of Target.

• Targeted $30 billion but secured only $11 billion.
• Valuation aimed for $140 billion but fell short at $125 billion.
• Timing was unfavorable: plummeting stock prices of major tech firms like Google, Amazon, and Intel tightened investment conditions.
• The performance gap with Anthropic also looms. Anthropic reported $11.6 billion in Q2 revenue, while OpenAI managed only $6.7 billion.
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Reddit’s Traffic Drops, Stock Plunges 29%.

• It is the largest community service in the U.S. Revenue rose 53% in Q3, yet the stock crashed.
• Steve Huffman (Reddit CEO) stated, “Since October, search engine referrals have dropped by over 1 million per week.” This implies Google’s AI mode is no longer directing traffic.
• According to Similarweb analysis, 68% of Google searches ended without external clicks as of June.
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The Fix.

How Rural Post Offices Are Staying Afloat.

• “Want to send your mom kimchi from overseas?” read a post by Baeksu Post Office in Baeksu-eup, Yeonggwang County, on social media.
• The kimchi delivery process is as follows: Applicants receive a container to pack the kimchi. Once filled and sent to Baeksu Post Office, it is repackaged with insulated boxes and fermentation gas absorbers before international shipment.
• Han Ki-yong (Baeksu Post Office head) said, “We handle an average of 300 overseas parcel requests per month.”
• 131 post offices offer overseas shipping services. Some also consolidate purchases from domestic online malls into single boxes for international delivery. Rural post offices, facing declining mail demand due to population loss, are finding new survival strategies.
• Bang Byung-ok (Buyeo Nammyeon Post Office head) said, “Over 90% of our customers are non-local visitors.” Nammyeon Post Office added a staff member.
• Kangjin Post Office carriers deliver side dishes to the elderly once a week. In 19 counties across Gangwon and North Jeolla, postal workers personally deliver pensions in cash to elderly recipients.
• They also monitor the health and well-being of solitary seniors, alerting authorities to irregularities, and check the exterior and occupancy status of suspected vacant homes.
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10,000 Scattering Burials.

• Scattering burial (散粉葬) refers to spreading cremated remains in mountains or the sea.
• Last year, 3% of the 360,000 total deaths were memorialized through scattering burials.
• Park Tae-ho (CEO of “Funeral and Cremation Culture”) said, “There is strong resistance to scattering remains in places with no connection to the deceased,” and suggested, “Unless legally prohibited—such as in public spaces—scattering should be permitted in ancestral graves or similar locations.”

ICYMI.

The Most Important Graph in the World.

• AI-led tasks now account for 26% of Anthropic’s R&D—up from 1% in January this year. The Wall Street Journal called it “the most important graph in the world.”
• It has not yet reached recursive self-improvement (RSI).
• Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO) warned, “If uncontrolled, this system could outpace our ability to understand and control it.”
• Jack Clark (Anthropic co-founder) said, “Engineers have begun delegating coding tasks to the model, and some have even stopped coding altogether.”
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Cruise Lines Are Sinking.

• Some sold their assets, planning to live out their lives on cruise ships.
• But as fuel costs soared, more cruise operators are filing for bankruptcy.
• Passengers on the Odyssey were told to disembark in Sihanoukville, Cambodia. These were passengers who paid $120,000–$440,000 to purchase cabins and $3,500–$11,000 monthly in operational fees.
• According to operator VillaVista Residences, fuel costs per cabin jumped from $1,800 to $8,000 monthly. Crew wages were also delayed for months.

Sell All Assets, Market Cap Quadruples.

• Korea Exchange disclosed a list of 151 low PBR companies. Their average PBR is 0.25x.
• PBR (price-to-book ratio) divides market capitalization by net assets. A lower PBR implies a stock is undervalued.
• Among companies with market caps over 1 trillion won, E-Mart (0.15x), Lotte Shopping (0.17x), Lotte Chemical (0.18x), Hyundai Steel (0.19x), and Hanwha Life Insurance (0.27x) were included.
• The overall PBR for the Korean stock market is 1.6x, compared to 4.7x in the US and 4.8x in Taiwan.

Sam Altman’s Keyboard Gift to Jay Y. Lee.

• It is a keyboard with 13 keys called Codex Micro.
• It is not for text input but for approving or rejecting AI requests.
• Sam Altman (OpenAI CEO) said, “It reflects the idea that in a world where we give computers verbal instructions and utilize AI, we may not even need a full keyboard.”
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Rising Malnutrition Among 2030s.

• An emergency room even received a bride-to-be preparing for her wedding.
• Lee Kyung-won (professor at Yonsei University Yongin Severance Hospital) said, “It occurs from taking obesity medications and not eating enough.”
• Health Insurance Corporation data shows 3,005 malnutrition cases among 2030s last year, a 45% increase.
• Oh Sang-woo (professor at Dongguk University College of Medicine) said, “Some people on obesity drugs eat one meal a day or even less.”
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Electric Vehicles Sell, But Profits Don’t Follow: The Paradox.

• Batteries account for 35% of an electric vehicle’s price.
• Volkswagen’s operating profit margin fell to 3.8%. Mercedes-Benz dropped to 2.5%.
• Kim Seung-jun (Kia Chief Financial Officer) said, “You can’t survive in the European market without selling electric vehicles,” adding, “I don’t think abandoning them just because short-term profitability dips is the right approach.”
• Lee Ho-geun (Daeduk University professor) said, “These are transitional issues arising from the shift from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles,” noting, “If companies achieve economies of scale by mass-producing a limited number of models—like Tesla—electric vehicle costs could drop significantly.”
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Worth Reading.

Chiikawa’s Provocation.

• An anime titled “Chiikawa,” meaning “something small and cute,” has claimed the box office top spot.
• The Korean title of the manga “Chiikawa” is “Munjakgwi.”
• Reactions abound: “Not just a kids’ movie,” “The more you ponder, the scarier and sadder it becomes,” “Almost a Greek tragedy.”
• One review calls it “a horror thriller disguised as a general-audience film.”
• Moon So-young (JoongAng Ilbo columnist) noted, “While we’ve had globally competitive characters like ‘Baby Shark,’ ‘Pororo,’ and ‘Catch! Teenieping,’ it’s hard to say we’ve combined their commercial appeal with narratives that transcend generations, allow diverse interpretations, and sustain decades-long vitality.”
• “The mark of a great story,” she concluded, “is that it doesn’t deliver answers—it generates interpretations.”
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Memory Fades, but Emotion Lingers.

• Is there meaning in meeting a father with dementia who doesn’t recognize his son?
• Kim Seok-jae (director of Kim Seok-jae Neurology Clinic) introduced research showing, “Alzheimer’s disease first erodes the hippocampus, which stores events, but the amygdala’s emotional processing circuits endure relatively longer.”
• Memory has two layers: recalling what happened, and the emotional trace left by the experience.
• “Emotion surges first, followed by forgotten memories. Even in dementia, one may forget what occurred, but the comfort or anxiety felt at the time can remain.”
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Year Two of the Administration: The Hubris Trap.

• Kim Hoe-kyung (Korea Ilbo political editor) warned that Lee Jae-myung (President) might be falling into the hubris trap.
• Arnold Toynbee (historian) said, “Hubris accompanies the demise of every civilization.” It refers to the error of treating past success formulas as absolute truths.
• Kim Hoe-kyung remarked, “By the second year, even moderates and progressives join conservatives in offering blunt criticism—it must be stifling,” adding, “Like the ‘weight of the crown’ endured by past administrations, regaining composure should come first.”
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Three Questions Are Needed.

• Cheon Gwang-am (editorial director of Dong-A Ilbo) noted, “The president’s ‘time and language’ are precious state resources requiring highly selective and focused use,” adding, “The president’s frequent involvement in overly ‘detailed’ and contentious issues—like the priority ranking for postpartum care center assignments—could itself lead to serious waste of state resources.”
• Cheon Gwang-am proposed three questions to consider.
• First, is it factual?
• Second, even if factual, is it kind?
• Third, even if kind, is it necessary?
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