The War Has Not Ended.

• It is merely a 60-day ceasefire extension. Observers note a “60-day main event” remains.
• Donald Trump (U.S. President) is already demanding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz without tolls, but Iran insists on collecting them.
• The release of frozen assets is another variable. Trump maintains it is conditional on abandoning nuclear weapons production. The U.S. and Iran are speaking in slightly different terms.
• Israel still opposes withdrawing from Lebanon.

A Fragile Peace.

• The war has not ended. It is merely an extension of the ceasefire, and either the U.S. or Iran breaking their promises could plunge them back into war. Gideon Rachman (Financial Times columnist) assessed it as an attempt to “spin a failed regime-change war as a success.”
• U.S. hardliners argue they should have pushed harder. Pressure to resume military strikes is growing.
• Israel has no intention of ending the war with Lebanon. Israel now sees Iran as a far more dangerous adversary.
• Protests have also erupted in Iran. Critics argue they traded “untrustworthy promises for the Strait of Hormuz.”
• For Trump to spin failure into success, Iran would need to vanish from the news entirely—a highly unlikely scenario. Lebanon remains a ticking time bomb.
• Nuclear negotiations are also likely to stall. Trump may struggle to endure accusations of being “dragged along by Iran”—a path previously criticized under Barack Obama (former U.S. President).
• The New York Times called it a “return to pre-war conditions.”
• Lebanese refugees still cannot return, and the tears of Gaza have not dried.
• Related Link.

What Matters Now.

Financial Markets Return to Normal, for Now.

• The exchange rate fell to 1,510 won, and the Kospi hit 8,545.98.
• Expectations are ripening that the exchange rate will drop below 1,500 won and the Kospi will surpass 9,000.
• Foreign investors have been net buyers for two consecutive days.
• The dominant view is that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady for now.
• Warnings of a “triple-high” backlash are also emerging: the counterattack of high inflation, rates, and exchange volatility has begun.
• All three major U.S. indices rose. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq gained 1.65%, 0.92%, and 3.07% respectively.

The Situation Was No Longer Sustainable.

• Trump needed to boost his approval ratings ahead of the midterm elections, while Iran was on the brink of national default. Both sides felt an urgent sense that the moment could not be missed.
• The U.S. spent over $29 billion in three months.
• The global growth rate dropping from 2.9% last year to 2.5% this year is also a war-related aftereffect.
• Related Link.

Why the Strait of Hormuz Remains Hard to Open.

• Only two ships have exited the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire. Over 200 ships remain trapped.
• Estimates suggest clearing all mines will take over a month.
• Neil Shearing (Capital Economics economist) said, “We need to see whether this agreement is a fragile truce or a sustainable deal.”

Has Chung Cheong-rae Made Up His Mind?

• Out of nowhere, he praised, “Lee Jae-myung (President) is establishing himself as a world-class leader.”
• Many speculated this was Lee Jae-myung implicitly demanding Chung Cheong-rae (Democratic Party leader)’s resignation by citing the ruling party’s political responsibility.
• The prevailing view is that Chung is temporarily lying low to prepare for another leadership bid.
• Observations also suggest a Kim-Myung alliance—Kim Min-seok (Prime Minister) and Song Young-gil (former Democratic Party leader)—is materializing.
• Song Young-gil has strong support in the Honam region. If Song endorses Kim Min-seok, Chung Cheong-rae’s base could significantly weaken.

Deep Dive.

Six Reasons Jang Dong-hyeok Holds On.

• First, framing the ballot shortage as an issue worked. It became awkward to pressure him to step down while fighting over it.
• Second, he controls a majority in the Supreme Council. The council would collapse if four of five members resigned, but Shin Dong-wook (People Power Party Supreme Council member), Kim Min-su (People Power Party Supreme Council member), Kim Jae-won (People Power Party Supreme Council member), and others have sided with Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party leader).
• Third, his approval ratings are brutal. He leads the Democratic Party in some polls.
• Fourth, there’s fear that if Jang steps down, Han Dong-hoon (independent lawmaker) will return.
• Fifth, Jang’s term lasts until August 2027, and he has no nomination power for the next general election. If he resigns, his successor would only serve the remaining term. There’s no strong push to force him out.
• Sixth, convening a general meeting of lawmakers immediately is difficult. The 18th is a plenary session day. In-depth discussion is unlikely.

Yellow Envelope Law at 100 Days: Only 8 Real Bosses Emerge.

• 1,137 subcontractor unions demanded negotiations with 431 primary contractors, but only 8 actually entered talks.
• “The exaggeration about sitting across from hundreds of subcontractor unions was untrue, and there were no fragmented negotiations.”
• Kyeongyang Shinmun called it a “collective dodge.”
• 80 cases determining employer status were filed with regional labor committees, which ruled 69 as valid employers.
• Related Link.

Another Take.

Realmeter Poll Shows Reversal: Democratic Party vs. People Power Party.

• Democratic Party support fell to 38.0%, while People Power Party rose to 44.3%.
• Lee Jae-myung (President) stands at 51.5%.
• The dominant view is that this reflects conservative consolidation rather than People Power Party’s strong performance.
• Some attribute the gap to methodology: In Gallup Korea’s phone interview survey, the Democratic Party (41%) still leads People Power Party (29%) by a wide margin. Realmeter’s ARS method skews toward high-political-engagement respondents.
• Related Link.

Why Yoo Si-min Is Leaving the Roh Moo-hyun Foundation.

• He explained, “To prevent any potential difficulties the Roh Moo-hyun Foundation might face due to my future critical activities.”
• Yoo Si-min (author) had served as a standing advisor to the foundation after stepping down as its chairman. He also decided to leave the foundation’s YouTube channel, Alleleo.
• The move may be linked to criticism from Roh Moo-hyun (former president)’s son-in-law Kwak Sang-eon (Democratic Party lawmaker). Kwak Sang-eon remarked, “I’m not sure who the foundation is actually promoting,” adding, “If a bakery doesn’t sell bread but promotes the bakery owner, it’s not a bakery—it’s a PR firm.” This implies Yoo Si-min’s influence has become disproportionately large.
• Related Link.

JTBC Files for Reorganization Amid 20.6 Billion Won Default.

• JTBC has filed with Seoul Rehabilitation Court to begin rehabilitation proceedings. JoongAng Ilbo is pursuing a workout.
• JoongAng Holdings, the central group’s holding company, as well as ContentJAM and Megabox CJ, have previously applied for rehabilitation.
• JTBC failed to repay 20.6 billion won in commercial paper at maturity. Its credit rating has been downgraded from ‘BBB (negative)’ to ‘CCC.’
• After the court initiates rehabilitation proceedings, it will review and decide whether to approve a rehabilitation plan. If deemed unviable, bankruptcy may be declared.
• Hong Jeong-do (JoongAng Group Vice Chairman) stated, “Due to deteriorating external economic conditions, funding crunches, and other reasons, we had no choice but to make this unavoidable decision.”
• Park Jang-hee (JoongAng Ilbo CEO) explained, “Unlike court receivership, a workout is a process of normalizing management by resolving temporary liquidity issues and improving financial structure.”

Oh Se-hoon’s Retribution: MBC Excluded from Press Clippings.

• Speculation dominates that this is retaliatory action against MBC, which intensively covered the Samsung Station rebar omission incident during the election period.
• Daily clippings of Seoul Metropolitan Government-related articles now include a header: “Excludes biased and distorted media: Excluded media: MBC.”
• The Seoul City press corps issued a statement, declaring, “We view this as an attempt to pressure reporting activities and express serious concern.”

Fewer Young Workers? Fewer Young People.

• May figures show the number of employed people in their 20s fell by 250,000 from the same month last year—from 3.54 million to 3.29 million.
• The 20s population itself decreased by 200,000, from 5.74 million to 5.54 million.
• While the decline in employment appears steeper than population loss, long-term trends show population reduction is more drastic.
• The employment rate itself has indeed dropped. The 20s employment rate is now lower than that of people in their 60s and above.

The Fix.

4.6 Trillion Won to Reach Seoul-Level Hospital Care.

• Health and Welfare Ministry plans to elevate regional national university hospitals to Seoul hospital standards.
• It will increase full-time faculty and raise resident allocation ratios. While Seoul’s Big 5 hospitals have 4.1–4.8 specialists per 10 beds, regional national university hospitals average 2.3–3.3.
• Average physician salaries were 330 million won in 2020; national university hospitals paid 150 million won.
• Unsurprisingly, service gaps are vast. One analysis showed a 12.7 percentage point gap in treatment-related mortality between Seoul and Chungcheongbuk-do.

UK Bans Social Media for Under-16s.

• UK teens under 16 cannot use YouTube, Instagram, Facebook, or similar platforms. They also cannot chat with strangers in gaming apps. Keir Starmer (UK Prime Minister) stated, “Social media not only exposes children to bullying and abuse but can also harm their mental health.”
• Meta issued a statement warning, “This risks isolating teens from online communities and pushing them toward unregulated alternatives without safeguards.” Alphabet noted, “It pushes children out of curated safe experiences and into anonymous, less secure services.”
• In Australia, many teens already access social media through circumvention methods. Starmer responded, “It’s no different from not being allowed to sell alcohol to minors.”
• Related Link.

Century-Long Revenge? Vancouver’s Mega-Rental Complex.

• Vancouver, Canada—known for sky-high housing prices—is seeing a 6,000-unit rental apartment complex rise.
• The Canadian court recognized in 2002 that the land belonged to the Squamish, an Indigenous group. The Canadian government returned 10 acres to the Squamish, who were displaced in 1913, and now plan to build a complex called ‘Sen̓áḵ̓w’ with towers up to 58 stories. Some phases are already completed and occupied.
• The 12,000-pyeong (approx. 39,600 sqm) site has a floor-area ratio exceeding 800%. As an Indigenous reserve, it’s exempt from provincial regulations. Critics call it “Indigenous revenge,” but it’s fundamentally a revenue-generating project for the “Squamish Nation.”
• Local backlash was fierce, but there was no stopping it. The argument: “Not NIMBY, but YIMBY—why oppose what’s built on our own land?”
• Thomas Davidoff (University of British Columbia professor) said, “Sen̓áḵ̓w is exactly what the market wants.” Some hope it could solve Vancouver’s chronic rental crisis.
• Though rental housing, only a portion is for low-income tenants. Rents follow market rates.
• Benjamin Appelbaum (New York Times columnist) noted, “To paraphrase Adam Smith, housing supply isn’t driven by developers’ benevolence but their self-interest.” The Squamish profit handsomely, and Vancouver gains housing stock.
• Squamish leader Ken Wilson (Khelsilem) said, “High-density, carbon-neutral buildings are the solution.” The plan minimizes car use and recycles waste heat for energy efficiency.
• This experiment was possible only under the exceptional conditions of an Indigenous reserve—but it’s just a fraction of the 83,000 units Vancouver needs by 2033.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

4.7% Voter Turnout for Overseas Elections After Spending 14.3 Billion Won.

• Voter turnout was higher in countries without dispatched election officials.
• The National Election Commission has 22 overseas election officials, spending approximately 150 million won per person.
• It was later revealed that NEC staff attended the Maldivian presidential election as observers, taking a 7-night, 9-day business trip—sparking controversy.
• The NEC’s staff count rose from 1,987 in 1996 to 3,034 this year. Annual spending increased from 292 billion won in 2015 to 363.4 billion won last year.

ICYMI.

Cheap AI Stocks Still Exist in China.

• US AI-related stocks have surged, but Chinese ones lag. Amazon trades at 27x price-to-earnings ratio, while Alibaba—similar in scale—is at 17x. Morgan Stanley called Alibaba a global AI winner.
• Baidu is at 14x, Tencent at 13x, CATL at 19x.
• The Wall Street Journal warned, however, that geopolitical risks must be considered. SMIC is on the US government’s blacklist, making its shares inaccessible to Americans. Global expansion faces significant constraints.
• Related Link.

Swiss 10 Million Population Cap Rejected in Referendum.

• 55% voted against it. Analysts suggest economic pragmatism outweighed anti-immigration sentiment.
• The referendum aimed to cap Switzerland’s population at 10 million by 2050.
• Switzerland’s population grew from 7.3 million in 2002 to 9.1 million as of June this year. Foreign nationals account for 27%. GDP also rose during this period. Like many nations, Switzerland faces aging demographics and requires younger labor to sustain its economy.

Kim Export Surge: Can Land-Based Cultivation Keep Pace?

• Last year, exports reached $1.1 billion. This year, they’ve already neared $400 million by April. Demand is surging so fast it’s been dubbed “the semiconductor of the sea,” yet supply struggles to keep up.
• CJ CheilJedang and Pulmuone have begun construction on land-based cultivation facilities.
• With sea temperatures rising 1.58°C, projections suggest the viable seaweed farming season could shrink from 150 days annually to under 100.

Minumsa’s World Literature Collection Surpasses 500 Volumes.

• Cumulative sales since 1998 have reached 23 million copies.
• The best-selling title is Hermann Hesse’s ‘Demian,’ with 810,000 copies sold.
• Second is J.D. Salinger’s ‘The Catcher in the Rye’ at 670,000 copies. Osamu Dazai’s ‘No Longer Human’ follows with 600,000, George Orwell’s ‘Animal Farm’ at 590,000, and Jane Austen’s ‘Pride and Prejudice’ with 510,000 copies.

China’s Government Debt Surges to 100 Trillion Yuan.

• It has more than doubled in five years—equivalent to 2.23 quadrillion won.
• The Chinese government claims it remains manageable. At 68% of GDP, it lags far behind Japan’s 200%+ and America’s 120%.

Starbucks Korea’s History Lesson.

• Stores close at 3 PM on the 22nd.
• Chairman Jung Yong-jin (E-Mart) and executives from E-Mart affiliates, along with all Starbucks Korea employees, will attend the history training.
• Lecturers include Professor Oh Je-yeon (Sungkyunkwan University) and Professor Koo Jeong-woo (Sungkyunkwan University).

Worth Reading.

Mr. Korea: The Protocol Lobbyist.

• There is a lobbyist dubbed ‘Mr. Korea’ at the South Korean embassy in the U.S. Critics note that while he receives $480,000–$600,000 annually, there is little to show for it in terms of actual lobbying.
• Yoon Geon-young (Democratic Party lawmaker) pointed out, “Most of A’s targets are already known pro-Korea lawmakers,” and “it barely rises above being a protocol errand service for the embassy.”
• There are also criticisms that facilitating protocol for visiting Korean politicians is his main job.
• Park Guk-hee (Washington correspondent for Chosun Ilbo) questioned, “Shouldn’t taxpayer money be spent on substantive lobbying that addresses specific issues and policies?”
• Related Link.

Strategic Industry Yet Treating People as Costs?

• This is about shipbuilding. The subcontracting share of the three major companies exceeds 60%. Yang Seung-hoon (Professor, Kyungnam University) pointed out, “The foundation of a strategic industry is people and their skills, yet we still treat them as fixed costs.”
• Yang Seung-hoon emphasized, “If the industry cannot bear the cost, the government must invest resources to preserve the skilled workforce.”
• “At a time when geopolitics completely constrains the economic environment, we are forced to fundamentally reflect: where does the market’s responsibility end and the government’s begin? This is an era where industrial decisions cannot be separated from national strategic judgment.”
• Related Link.

Minja Musa: The Democratic Party’s Battle Against Its Own Futility.

• “Minja Musa” is a play on “Mojamus,” meaning “fighting with a hat,” and translates to “The Democratic Party is now fighting its own futility.”
• The first goal of lawmakers is simply the dream of life extension—to reattach the golden badge.
• Kim Min-ah (The Kyunghyang Shinmun columnist) advised, “Instead of getting bogged down in futile squabbles day after day, they should immerse themselves among citizens.”
• “If lawmakers who entered politics vowing to practice the public good lack the resolve to buckle under while pursuing their convictions, wouldn’t it be better to quit politics altogether?”
• Related Link.