US Stocks Hit Record Highs.

• The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq rose 0.81%, 0.73%, and 1.03% respectively.
• First, expectations are high that the ceasefire will hold.
• Second, corporate earnings aren’t bad—in Intel’s stock surged 13%.
• Third, international oil prices have at least begun to decline.
• Today, the Kospi attempts to break 2,700.
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Hegseth Also: “South Korea Must Step Up.”.

• Following Donald Trump (U.S. President), Pete Hegseth (U.S. Secretary of Defense) also urged, “We hope South Korea will step up.”
• 1,550 ships remain trapped in the Strait of Hormuz, with 22,500 crew members aboard. Among them, 26 ships are South Korean, carrying around 160 Korean sailors.
• Trump’s Project Freedom has been suspended for now.
• The Hankyoreh warned, “If South Korea hastily intervenes, it could give Iran a pretext to attack Korean vessels.”

Iranian Oil Imports: Key Agenda for US-China Summit.

• Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen (U.S. Treasury Secretary) made this remark in a Fox News interview: “China is purchasing 90% of Iran’s energy exports,” adding, “It’s effectively funding a state sponsor of terrorism.”
• Analysts suggest Iran’s ability to withstand the US blockade is due to Chinese backing.
• The issue could spark significant friction at the upcoming US-China summit on the 14th–15th.

What Matters Now.

Trump Awaits Provocation.

• The Guardian noted, “It’s like an episode of the reality show ‘The Trump Show’—full of dramatic twists and self-made blessings. The trailers generate far more anticipation than the actual content.”
• In his speech last weekend, he said:
• “Everyone knows we’re at war. You all agree we can’t let madmen have nuclear weapons. Right?”
• Project Freedom is not an operation where the U.S. Navy escorts tankers. The U.S. Navy only provides guidance, stands by nearby, and intervenes if attacked.
• A White House official met by Axios stated, “If Iran does something, they become the villain and we gain justification to act.” It implies they’re seeking a pretext for attack.
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From TACO to NACHO.

• TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) means “Trump always chickens out.”
• NACHO (Not A Chance Hormuz Opens) means “No chance the Strait of Hormuz will open.”
• In a situation that’s neither war nor peace, the prevailing assessment is that Trump is more rattled than Iran.

South Korea Capable in Hormuz Mine Clearance.

• Cheong Wa Dae is reviewing plans to participate in mine-clearing operations.
• The South Korean Navy has 12 minesweepers, all under 700 tons—reaching the Strait of Hormuz alone could take over four weeks.
• Some estimate the mine-clearing operation would take around six months, suggesting even a departure now would suffice.
• Son Hyun-deok (Chief Editor, Maeil Business Newspaper) proposed, “It would be good to keep sufficient possibilities open and push forward actively.”
• First, mine-clearing is not an attack but a peaceful military activity.
• Second, it is an area where South Korea can demonstrate its capabilities. In joint drills with the U.S., South Korea’s mine-detection success rate was 90% versus America’s 60%.
• Third, it is an opportunity to showcase the nation’s strength as a defense-industry powerhouse and shipbuilding leader.
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Deep Dive.

Why Do Polls Differ So Widely?

• Phone interviews and ARS surveys show significant differences.
• Kim Bu-gyeom (Democratic Party Daegu mayoral candidate) and Choo Kyung-ho (People Power Party Daegu mayoral candidate) received 38% and 31% in the KBS Daegu poll, while the Maeil Daily poll showed 43% and 46%. The former used phone interviews; the latter used ARS.
• Response rates are higher in phone interviews, which also reflect more centrist voters. ARS surveys capture more “shy” voters.
• Results also vary depending on question order. Asking about party affiliation first before candidate preference boosts support for the People Power Party candidate in regions like Daegu.
• “Who do you support?” and “Who will you vote for?” yield different results, as some voters cast ballots to block a candidate.
• (The KBS Daegu poll had a 20.5% response rate with a ±3.5% margin of error at 95% confidence. The Maeil Daily poll had a 6.8% response rate with a ±3.1% margin of error.)
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Blue House Premium Report Card.

• In the 2018 local elections, the second year of the Moon Jae-in administration, only Eun Soo-mi (then Blue House secretary) ran and was elected mayor of Seongnam.
• In the 2020 general election, the fourth year of the Moon administration, 47 Blue House aides ran, 30 received nominations, and 19 were elected.
• The 2022 local elections occurred just one month after Yoon Suk-yeol’s inauguration, so there was no Blue House premium.
• In the 2024 general election, the third year of the Yoon administration, 16 aides from the Presidential Office ran, and 8 were elected.
• In this year’s local elections? 7 received nominations.
• Ultimately, it correlates with approval ratings.

Ha Jung-woo in Danger? Leading Outside Margin of Error.

• Busan Buk-gap has finalized a three-way race between Democratic Party’s Ha Jung-woo (former Blue House Chief Secretary), People Power Party’s Park Min-sik (former Minister of Patriots and Veterans Affairs), and independent Han Dong-hoon (former PPP leader).
• In an SBS poll, Ha, Park, and Han received 38%, 26%, and 21% respectively. (Wireless phone interview survey, response rate 14.4%, margin of error ±4.4% at 95% confidence level.)
• Ha’s approval ratings have slightly dropped due to the hand-washing controversy and Democratic Party leader Jung Chung-rae’s “Say ‘oppa’” remark.
• Busan Buk-gap was the only district in Busan where the Democratic Party won in the last general election. Jeon Jae-su (Busan mayoral candidate) was elected there three times consecutively.
• Even if Park and Han unify, Ha is projected to remain ahead outside the margin of error.
• Unification is unlikely. In an interview with JoongAng Ilbo, Park stated, “Dream on about unification.” His resolve to run independently remains strong.
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Another Take.

Democratic Candidates Drawing the Line with Rep. Chung.

• An independent probe into the election manipulation indictment is almost the only remaining risk.
• “Leadership isn’t about self-promotion.” Song Young-gil (Democratic Party candidate for Incheon Yeonsu-gu A) directly attacked Chung Cheong-rae.
• Kim Bu-gyeom (Democratic Party Daegu mayoral candidate) said, “If you’re not planning to abandon your comrades, please be cautious.”

Fear of a Lockdown on Listings.

• May 10 is approaching. The tax deferral period ends, and capital gains taxes for multiple homeowners will rise sharply.
• Kim Yong-beom (Blue House Policy Secretary) said, “There won’t be a lockdown on listings.” He sees the recent slowdown in Gangnam’s three districts and Yongsan-gu as a signal.
• The assumption is that if expectations of rising home prices are curbed, multiple homeowners will have no reason to hold non-residential properties—but forecasts are divided.
• The Korea Daily pointed out, “It’s unlikely that listings from multiple homeowners will emerge in volumes sufficient to reverse the upward trend in home prices.” Already, Seoul’s housing permit approvals in Q1 this year were only 38% of last year’s level. Above all, expectations of rising home prices have not subsided. If one is holding property as a rental investment anyway, there’s no urgent timing to sell.
• Kwon Dae-joong (Hansung University professor) criticized, “The government is falling into the trap of averages,” adding, “If you break down regions finely, there are countless apartments where prices have risen.”
• Related Link.

Jeonse Declines, Monthly Rent Conversion Accelerates.

• KB Financial Group’s report. 56% of real estate experts forecast home prices will rise this year. 54% of licensed agents forecast a decline.
• Projections diverge, but opinions align on rising jeonse prices.
• The shift from jeonse to monthly rent is gaining speed. Monthly rent’s share of the leasing market grew from 40% in 2021 to 68% this year.

China’s Goal: Becoming a Manufacturing Power Like the U.S.

• Ji Man-soo (research fellow at the Korea Institute of Finance) noted, “Mid-sized manufacturing-based economies like South Korea, Germany, and Japan must unite to challenge China’s overproduction and subsidies and establish new norms.”
• China has grown confident in its manufacturing sector. Its strategy is to solidify leadership in energy, materials, autonomous driving, robotics, and biotechnology—key strategic industries.
• The Japanese Nikkei Shimbun analyzed, “The true implication of this conflict is the competition between America’s ‘oil era’ vision and China’s ‘electric era’ vision.”
• Park Min-hee (Hankyoreh reporter) emphasized, “As the world races to reduce oil and gas dependence and pursue ‘electrification,’ reliance on China can only grow.”
• Park Min-hee pointed out, “The excessive success of the ‘becoming a manufacturing U.S.’ strategy paradoxically leads to the question: ‘Who will buy the products that China endlessly produces?’” The global scale requires solutions for coexistence.
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Four Weeks Until Oil Prices Explode.

• The Financial Times warns that international oil prices will become a free-for-all.
• Concerns grow that late May is the tipping point. If the war continues until the end of June, all oil reserves will be exhausted.
• According to the U.S. EIA (Energy Information Administration), even if the war ends and blockades are lifted, it will take 8–10 weeks to recover 80% of oil production.
• Projections suggest prices could surge to $130–140 per barrel.
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South Korean Cargo Ship Left Adrift After Fire.

• Fire incident in the Strait of Hormuz. No direct evidence yet of Iranian attack.
• Took four hours to extinguish. No casualties, but engine damage severe enough to require towing.
• According to Kim Doo-young (Chairman of the National Maritime Union Federation), crew members heard a warning broadcast telling them to stand back before the fire.
• Highly likely not a mechanical failure.
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The Fix.

Performance Bonuses Could Be Paid in Stock.

• Amazon and Meta paid 24% and 25% of last year’s operating profits to employees in stock. Google paid 19%, Apple 10%—not based on operating profit but in RSU (restricted stock unit) form.
• Direct comparisons with labor-cost-heavy IT firms are challenging, but some argue stock has a stronger incentive effect than cash.
• TSMC paid 11% of operating profit in cash, while Nvidia paid 5% in stock.

611 Military Suicides Over 10 Years.

• 75% of all 817 deaths were suicides.
• The Hankook Ilbo met with Hong Hyun-gi (National Forensic Service Psychological Researcher), who specializes in psychological autopsies.
• A psychological autopsy begins with document review—over a meter of materials to trace the deceased’s mental state. It’s work to uncover the truth behind unjust deaths.
• Even suicide cases are classified as line-of-duty deaths if harsh treatment or excessive workloads are confirmed as causes. The psychological autopsy protocol, proposed a decade ago, is still ongoing. A single case takes about two months to analyze.
• Related Link.

ICYMI.

5th-Gen Medical Expense Insurance Launched.

• Premiums are over 50% lower than 1st-gen policies, with expanded non-covered items like physical therapy and extracorporeal shockwave treatment.
• Existing policyholders can switch to 5th-gen insurance without separate review.

Unemployed and Forced to Start a Business? The Riskiest Case.

• Not all self-employment is equally difficult.
• Retail is relatively better in sales and operating profit for those in their 20s–30s.
• Restaurants are more profitable for those over 60—and for 2030s in non-capital areas.
• Sales are higher in the capital area, but operating profits are higher outside it.
• Livelihood-driven startups have low sales and even lower operating profits.
• Digital literacy also matters.
• Ahn Soo-ji (Research Fellow at the National Assembly Futures Institute) emphasized, “Self-employment policies focused on startups, financing, and closure support should shift toward improving operational structures.”
• She proposed, “Policy funds and startup support should be selectively allocated based on profitability, and incentives for switching industries should be tied to support conditions to prevent repeat startups in the same sector.”
• Related Link.

Worth Reading.

It’s Not Just About Having More Time.

• Retirement brings reduced income, declining physical strength, and disrupted relationships and daily rhythms that were long maintained.
• Kim Ki-yeon (Chung-Ang University Professor) emphasized, “The essence lies in how we treat ourselves.”
• “It’s about not squandering even the smallest day, infusing personal meaning into every minor role, and taking the care to examine the potential that still resides within. The mindset of treasuring oneself like a precious heirloom begins this way. Grand achievements aren’t required—one resolve to not easily give up on oneself is enough.”
• Related Link.

No Need to Envy Taiwan.

• Taiwan’s per capita GDP is projected to exceed $40,000 this year. After overtaking South Korea last year, the gap is expected to widen even faster.
• Lee Dong-su (Representative of the Generational Politics Institute) noted, “Statistics do not fully capture the quality of individual lives.”
• Taiwan’s minimum wage is 60–70% of South Korea’s. Starting salaries for college graduates are about half of South Korea’s.
• Buying a home in Taipei requires 16 years of a salaried worker’s income. In South Korea, it’s about 14 years.
• The total fertility rate is lower than South Korea’s. South Korea’s is 0.8, while Taiwan’s is 0.7.
• Lee warned, “What we should truly worry about is not per capita GDP but the extreme polarization that divides society into a few booming industries and the majority of ordinary citizens—a ‘Taiwan-style economy’ where classes are sharply split.”
• Related Link.

Everyone Has a Weak Link.

• Yoon Suk-yeol (former president)’s weakness was Kim Keon-hee.
• Lee Jae-myung (president)’s weaknesses are legal risks like Daejang-dong, Baekhyeon-dong, and the North Korea remittance allegations.
• Though substantial evidence has emerged and the cases are debatable, distrust remains high.
• During last year’s trial suspension law controversy, he drew a line by saying, “It would be better not to drag legislation related to me into political strife,” but the special prosecution for indictment cancellation signaled, “Please make a judgment after gathering opinions and deliberation.”
• Ko Jeong-ae (Central Sunday editor) pointed out, “Overdefense turns weaknesses into critical vulnerabilities.”