Trump’s Casual Remark, U.S. Stocks Surge.

• S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq rose 2.9%, 2.5%, and 3.8% respectively—the biggest gains since May last year.
• Reacting to news that Donald Trump (U.S. President) said, “I’m willing to end the war.” Though unconfirmed officially, markets—ever eager for excuses—regained optimism.
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70% of Citizens to Receive Up to 600,000 Won.

• 26.2 trillion won in supplementary budget will be released. Income-based support of 100,000–600,000 won per person will be given to 35.77 million individuals in the bottom 70% income bracket.
• Households with monthly income under 3.85 million won (single-person basis) qualify. Payments start in late April.
• 10.1 trillion won will fund three key packages: expanded public transit refunds and a petroleum price cap. A 5 trillion won reserve is also allocated.
• Lee Jae-myung (President) stated, “In emergencies, we may utilize the constitutional emergency financial and economic measures.”
• Kyeongyang Shinmun called it a “temporary warm breeze.” Still, better than nothing? Lee Sang-min (Research Fellow at the Korea Institute of Public Finance) noted, “Energy efficiency projects to reduce fossil fuel dependency should dominate the supplementary budget.” Lee Chang-min (Hanyang University Professor) stressed, “While it may fuel inflation, preventing an economic downturn is the priority.”
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Won Hits 1,530 per Dollar.

• Three reasons explain the won’s decline.
• First, rising international oil prices are lifting the dollar’s value—a flight from riskier assets.
• Second, concerns over South Korea’s slowing growth: the OECD cut its 2024 forecast from 2.1% to 1.7%.
• Third, foreign investors keep selling stocks. They unloaded 35 trillion won in March alone.

Hormuz Tollgate: A Feasible Scheme?

• Iran plans to charge $2 million per vessel. At 140 ships daily, this would exceed $100 billion annually—20% of Iran’s GDP.
• The Strait of Hormuz handles 20% of global oil shipments. With 3,200 vessels currently stranded, that’s $6.4 billion alone.
• Naturally, this has no basis. The Suez Canal is a man-made waterway and not comparable.
• The Wall Street Journal analyzed that Trump might unilaterally declare an end to the conflict. After all, the U.S. has low Middle East dependence and is likely to shift responsibility to other nations while extricating itself. “The U.S. doesn’t need Hormuz’s oil,” it added.
• Bloomberg noted, “Iran’s lesson is that holding the global economy hostage is cheaper and easier than expected.”

What Matters Now.

Kim Young-hwan’s Cutoff Suspended.

• Kim Young-hwan (Chungcheongbuk-do Governor), eliminated in the People Power Party primary, filed for a provisional injunction, and the court ruled the party violated its own constitution and regulations.
• The court found fault in finalizing the additional recruitment process in one day, when the rules require at least three days of public notice. Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party Leader) protested, “This is demanding that those who failed the first exam be declared passable because the second exam notice was flawed.”
• The People Power Party’s nominations have descended into chaos. In Daegu, Rep. Joo Ho-young (People Power Party) has also filed for a provisional injunction.
• Gyeonggi, Jeollabuk-do, and Jeollanam-do/Gwangju have yet to finalize their nomination methods.
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PPP Primaries in Disarray, Lee Jung-hyun Resigns.

• Lee Jung-hyun (PPP Nomination Committee Chair) and all committee members resigned en masse.
• The gesture of accountability comes as speculation grows that Lee will run for the integrated mayoral seat in Jeonnam-Gwangju.
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Deep Dive.

Serengyo Becomes Judiciary Committee Chair.

• Seo Young-kyo (Democratic Party lawmaker) is known as a hardliner in the Judiciary Committee. He took over as chair after Cho Kuk.
• “Prosecutorial reform has begun. I will guard the gate to ensure media reform and judicial reform are properly carried out,” he said.
• Seo’s term ends in late May. The committee chair for the second half of the session must be reappointed.

One-Point Constitutional Amendment: Nine People Power Party Votes Needed.

• Agreement was reached to include in the constitutional preamble a clause inheriting the spirit of the Bu-Ma Democratic Uprising and the May 18th Democratic Uprising. The key is adding a requirement for National Assembly approval of emergency martial law.
• Woo Won-shik (National Assembly Speaker) emphasized, “I have a desperate feeling that if we don’t keep this spark alive now, we may never get another chance like this.”
• Out of 295 total lawmakers, 197 votes are required. At least nine People Power Party members must vote in favor.
• Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party Leader) said, “I suspect this is a preliminary step to insert a clause allowing Lee Jae-myung’s re-election in the next constitutional revision.”
• The constitutional amendment vote is by roll call, so some lawmakers may defect. Jo Kyung-tae (People Power Party lawmaker) and Kim Yong-tae (People Power Party lawmaker) have expressed support.
• To hold the vote alongside the June 3rd local elections, the National Assembly must pass it by May 10th.
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As Oil Prices Rise, Disposable Income Shrinks.

• In the U.S., gasoline prices jumped from $3 to $4 per gallon, causing uproar. Since 1 gallon equals 3.8 liters, and with an exchange rate of 1,500 won per dollar, this translates to an increase from roughly 1,200 won to 1,600 won per liter.
• Korea’s prices rose from about 1,600 won to 1,900 won per liter—a similar 30% increase relative to the U.S.
• When U.S. gasoline prices rise by more than $1 per gallon, households spend over $1,000 more annually, equivalent to roughly one-eighth of disposable income. That means less money for dining out or other expenses.
• The Economist analyzed who profits: energy companies’ stocks surged. Airlines’ stocks plummeted. Consumer goods firms like Nike and Chipotle also saw significant declines. Automakers Ford and GM dropped too.
• Discount stores and supermarkets gain. Electric vehicle stocks soared—BYD in China and battery maker CATL rose as well.
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No President Has Thrived Under Rising Oil Prices.

• Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush all failed re-election after oil prices surged.
• States with Republican governors feel the impact of higher oil prices more acutely due to relatively lower taxes.
• A Republican voter in Maine interviewed by The Economist said, “Everyone is angry.”
• Democrats have made cost of living a central campaign theme. Trump still insists, “America is the world’s top oil producer and will make a fortune.” Critics note, “He doesn’t seem to care what’s happening in ordinary people’s daily lives.”
• Some MAGA supporters still believe the conflict could end quickly, arguing Iran cannot permanently block the Strait of Hormuz. There is also hope that Iran will eventually be subdued, restoring U.S. prestige.
• But expectations of a swift resolution—like Venezuela’s 3-hour crisis—have already collapsed, and Iran’s attacks on neighboring countries were not anticipated.
• No country is aiding the U.S. Cory Scheick (AEI researcher) observed, “Trump’s punitive transactionalism is a key reason no one wants to help America.”
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Another Take.

Are Lawyers’ Success Fees Justifiable?

• There is precedent banning success fees in criminal cases. The rationale: higher payments to lawyers could imply outcomes depend on payment amounts, fostering misguided expectations of undue influence over case results.
• Yet in January, a ruling emerged stating, “Banning success fees does not align with restoring judicial trust.” The logic: prohibiting such fees has increased preferential treatment of former judges.
• Kim Ki-won (Vice President of the Seoul Bar Association) remarked, “Everything in the world has incentives—are they all just profit-driven tactics?” Others note retainer fees have risen since the ban.
• A lawyer interviewed by The Korea Herald observed, “Base fees hover around 3 million won, but adding success fees ultimately favors those with deeper pockets.”
• Proposals also suggest adopting a time-charge system to objectively reflect attorneys’ labor and effort.
• Related Link.
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E-Mart Staff Caught in a Cycle of Layoffs and Rehiring Every Six Months.

• E-Mart employs staff workers who are laid off every 3 or 6 months, collect unemployment benefits, rest, and then return to work. In some stores, staff workers make up over 60%.
• Is this unique to E-Mart? E-Mart’s unemployment benefit payouts are about 26 times higher than Lotte Mart’s—4 to 10 times higher per person.
• Why does this happen? To compete with online retailers while reducing labor costs. They openly state, “We have no choice but to use fixed-term contracts.”
• Chung Yong-jin (Shinsegae Chairman), who holds 29% of E-Mart shares, received nearly 20 billion won in dividends from E-Mart last year.
• Last year, E-Mart’s sales were 16.6 trillion won, operating profit was 277 billion won, and net profit was 52 billion won. Yet, 67 billion won was distributed as dividends, with Chung Yong-jin taking 19.9 billion won.
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Gwanghwamun Hangeul Plaque Sparks Heated Debate.

• Installing a Hangeul plaque alongside the Hanja one has valid arguments on both sides.
• Lee Geon-beom (Representative of the Hangeul Culture Alliance) argued, “Installing a Hangeul plaque is a realization of constitutional values that reveals Korea’s identity and cultural autonomy to the world.”
• Choi Jong-deok (former director of the National Research Institute of Cultural Heritage) stated, “Adding a Hangeul plaque without historical evidence could destabilize the very criteria for restoration, setting a precedent where cultural heritage is altered according to current tastes and political messages.”
• Lee Kang-min (professor at the Korea National University of Arts) said, “Placing a Hangeul plaque under the Hanja one is merely an annotation of pronunciation, which could ultimately devalue Hangeul’s intrinsic worth.”
• The current plaque is already a new creation. In 1968, Park Chung-hee (then-president) installed a Hangeul plaque, which was replaced with a Hanja one in 2010 under the pretext of restoring the original. The current plaque was remade in 2023. Gwanghwamun itself was restored in 2010.
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What Does Abolishing the Fair Trade Commission’s Exclusive Right to Prosecute Mean?

• The Fair Trade Act and Subcontracting Act, among other laws under the Fair Trade Commission’s jurisdiction, require the commission to file charges before prosecutors can indict violations. This means only the commission holds the exclusive right to initiate prosecution.
• Choo Byung-gi (Fair Trade Commission Chairperson) stated yesterday in a State Council meeting, “There is criticism that the commission monopolizes the right to prosecute,” adding, “We will prepare improvement measures to completely abolish the exclusive prosecution right.”
• This follows Lee Jae-myung (President) pointing out in February, “Why can’t investigations or punishments proceed if the commission doesn’t file charges in fair trade cases?”
• If 300 or more ordinary citizens or 30 or more businesses gather, they will be able to file charges without going through the commission. Lee added, “We should consider giving local governments the direct right to prosecute.”
• Concerns also arise that abolishing the exclusive prosecution right could lead to retaliatory or competitive cross-litigation among rival companies.
• Related Link.

16,000 Court Rulings Corrected Annually.

• Judges make mistakes. Frequently. They misstate facts, copy-paste irrelevant sentences and paragraphs. In the divorce case of Chey Tae-won (SK Chairman) and Roh So-young (Art Center Nabi Director), a stock value of 1,000 won was mistakenly written as 100 won before being corrected.
• Over five years, there were 101,472 requests to amend court rulings—and 82,709 were actually revised.
• Critics note rulings are growing longer over time. In Seoul Central District Court’s civil division, average length increased from 13.7 pages in 2016 to 19.3 pages in 2024.
• A senior judge interviewed by Chosun Ilbo remarked, “Senior judges once aimed for perfection, saying two corrections meant hanging up the judicial robe.” That standard no longer applies.
• Related Link.

The Fix.

War on Industrial Accidents, Yet Deaths Rise.

• Despite the Lee Jae-myung government’s strong resolve, nothing has changed.
• Industrial accident fatalities increased from 589 in 2024 to 605 last year. These are deaths under investigation—distinct from overall fatality statistics.
• A labor ministry official interviewed by Kyunghyang Shinmun remarked, “Policy effects take time to manifest, and we’re at a stage where safety awareness across labor and management needs to shift.”
• Related Link.

Punishing Major Industrial Disasters? 23 of 24 Executives Received Suspended Sentences or Fines.

• Only one business executive received an actual prison sentence among cases from 2022–2024.
• 22 were given suspended sentences, and one received only a fine.

Reducing Oil Dependence Is Key to Survival.

• South Korea faces greater shocks than other countries because of its high oil dependency and especially its heavy reliance on the Middle East.
• South Korea ranks first among OECD members in oil dependency, consuming 5.6 barrels per $10,000 of GDP. Chile and Greece use 4.7 and 4.2 barrels, respectively.
• Last year, the country imported 137 million tons of crude oil, of which 97.81 million tons (71%) came from the Middle East.
• Naphtha dependency is even more severe: 78% of the 26.85 million tons imported originated from the Middle East.
• While this reflects the scale of the petrochemical industry, calls are growing to accelerate electric vehicle adoption and renewable energy transition.

12 of 43 Youth Malls Cease Operations.

• Number of stores in operation dropped from 741 to 331 as of February this year.
• Kim Jong-jin (Konkuk University Professor) noted, “Commercial districts form in the order of ‘demand→content→space,’ but the youth malls reversed this sequence. They placed young entrepreneurs in empty spaces, expecting customers to naturally flock—but this failed because it tried to create a market where none existed.”
• Cho Chun-han (Gyeonggi Science and Technology University Professor) warned, “Policies that push unprepared aspiring entrepreneurs—those lacking core competitiveness in their chosen fields—into starting businesses risk becoming a model that mass-produces the unemployed.”
• The Korea Daily emphasized, “To prevent the Lee Jae-myung government’s startup support from becoming ‘pouring water into a bottomless pit,’ it must focus not only on providing ‘startup spaces’ but also on strengthening the capabilities of those who will fill them.”
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ICYMI.

Lee Chang-yong’s YouTube Title: “Shut Your Ears.”.

• It’s a shortened form of “Shut your own ears.” The name of the YouTube channel Lee Chang-yong (Bank of Korea Governor) plans to create after retirement.
• At a recent meeting, he also said, “I’ve written down the names of all the people who made my job difficult.” When told the channel name was harsh, he reportedly said, “Delivering the message is more important.” He has much to say.
• Lee showed strong enthusiasm for central bank digital currency (CBDC) but left without finishing the project. Many observers speculate that his successor, Shin Hyun-song (former BIS Research Fellow), is skeptical of digital currency.
• Related Link.

Controversy Over Jeong Won-o’s Business Trip?

• Attacks are intensifying against Seoul mayoral candidate Jeong Won-o (former Seongdong District Mayor). Kim Jae-seop (People Power Party lawmaker) raised suspicions that Jeong took a leisure-oriented business trip with a fixed-term employee.
• One female employee accompanied him, but her gender was listed as male, and she was promoted after the trip—this is the extent of the allegations.
• The forum Jeong attended included Kim Doo-kwan (then Democratic Party lawmaker) and Lee Dong-hak (then Democratic Party Supreme Council member), and the employee in question was the operational manager.
• The Kyunghyang Shinmun called it “baseless, sensationalist negativity.”
• Jeong’s camp claimed, “It’s shameless distortion to frame an official business trip as a honeymoon,” but the term “honeymoon trip” itself is odd. “Honeymoon” (밀월) literally means “honey + moon” (蜜 + 月). In Hangeul, it feels secretive, but it simply means a honeymoon. It’s not a term to use in a rebuttal.
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Worth Reading.

Was ‘I Want to Know That’ a Manipulated Broadcast?

• SBS ‘I Want to Know That’ did use the movie ‘Asura’ in its intro and employ sensational editing while reporting on Lee Jae-myung’s (then Seongnam mayor) alleged gang ties.
• The recent conviction of Jang Young-ha (lawyer) for confirmed false statements and the SBS ‘I Want to Know That’ report are, for now, separate cases. The court ruled that Jang intentionally publicized falsehoods to ensure Lee Jae-myung’s electoral defeat.
• Kim Dong-chan (Policy Committee Chair, Citizens’ Coalition for Media Reform) stated, “While some regret may be expressed, framing the broadcast as entirely false or politically orchestrated is not a stance power should take.”
• Shim Young-seop (Kyunghee Cyber University Professor) noted, “The problematic narrative reinforced the impression that Lee was no different from the corrupt mayor in ‘Asura,’” but added, “SBS exacerbated the issue by hastily apologizing as if the entire report were falsified.”
• The Korean Media Workers’ Union issued a statement: “It is deeply concerning when those in power single out individual producers for criticism and presume the intent behind their work.”
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Children’s Addiction Was Designed.

• Meta and Google faced a $6 million damages ruling. Evidence emerged that they ignored research confirming potential harm to mental health. Addiction was not a side effect but a profit model.
• Han Seung-joo (The Kookmin Ilbo columnist) emphasized, “Platform responsibility should not lie in ‘unregulated freedom’ but in ‘safe design.’”
• “What platforms want is not our tastes but our time. On that time, ads are sold, and profits are made. Even in moments we believe we’re choosing, those choices may already be designed. What’s needed now is not user restraint but changing the structures that trap us.”
• Related Link.

Trump Pay.

• 1990 U.S.-Iraq War costs were $61 billion. The U.S. covered 12%, while Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE split 30%, 29%, and 8%.
• Japan, Germany, and South Korea contributed 16%, 11%, and 0.5% respectively.
• What about a U.S.-Iran war? Caroline Leavitt (White House spokesperson) responded to the question, “Can Arab states cover Iran war costs like the Gulf War?” with, “That’s definitely an idea President Donald Trump has.”
• Related Link.

Good People Hoarding Trash Bags.

• Why do people agonize over trash bags? Some say they seem ready to obey traffic lights while fleeing a warzone.
• Choi Moon-seon (Korea Ilbo columnist) pointed out, “Because in just 31 years, the rule that ‘no trash bag → no trash disposal’ has been internalized at breakneck speed.”
• “In a surveillance society where CCTV is installed around public trash cans to catch littering, and rumors spread that waste collectors tracked down those who improperly discarded food waste, one must be that virtuous,” the analysis concludes.
• Related Link.