Won Hits 1,500 Against Dollar, Kospi Rebounds.

• The 1,500 won-per-dollar rate is the first in 17 years since 2009 and the third-highest ever. If Middle East issues remain unresolved, the 1,500-won range could become the “new normal” for a while.
• The Kospi held up well as individual investors propped up the market.
• Global tightening is also a possibility. To curb inflation, rates must rise—but slowing growth is a concern. Central banks worldwide are trapped in a rate dilemma.

Here Comes the Wolf.

• All three major indices—the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq—rose by 0.8%, 1.0%, and 1.2%, respectively. The rebound occurred, but risks persist.
• Barron’s warned, “This is not like the boy who cried wolf.” Their analysis: “A significant decline is on the horizon.”
• Related Link.

20 Trillion Won Cherry Blossom Supplementary Budget Incoming.

• Government and ruling party are preparing a cherry blossom supplementary budget of up to 20 trillion won. It’s a “virtuous” budget without government bond issuance. Corporate taxes from Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are the ammunition.
• Seo Kyung-ho (JoongAng Ilbo columnist) noted, “A responsible government’s approach is not to allocate a supplementary budget based on how much tax revenue is left over, but to allocate it frugally for what is ‘absolutely necessary’ and save fiscal capacity.” The implication: there will be countless more areas where fiscal strength is needed in the future.
• Related Link.

“Naval Deployment: A Decision to Be Made Cautiously.”.

• South Korea has decided to buy time for now. Lee Kyu-yeon (Chief of Presidential Communications) stated, “This is an issue that must be discussed thoroughly and decided upon with sufficient time.”
• Lee Ki-hyeon (Democratic Party lawmaker) staged a one-person protest against the deployment in front of the U.S. Embassy.

What Matters Now.

The Trap Trump Fell Into.

• Trump cannot end the war until Iran releases the Strait of Hormuz. The dilemma is that while Trump started the war, he cannot end it.
• The stage for quickly ending the war has already passed. There is no dialogue channel with Iran.
• There were observations that Trump was intoxicated by the success of the Maduro (then-Venezuelan president) kidnapping operation.
• The longer time passes, the more disadvantaged Trump becomes. The global economy is likely to enter a synchronized downturn, and Iran’s power will grow stronger. This means acquiring a powerful deterrent unlike nuclear weapons.
• Even if they occupy Kharg Island, it is unlikely to end there. The same applies to deploying ground forces—success is almost impossible.
• Even if South Korea or Japan send warships, it means nothing if the safety of the Strait of Hormuz remains unguaranteed.
• “If you don’t help the U.S., it will be very bad for NATO’s future,” they warned—but the dilemma is that there is nothing they can actually do.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

“Not Our War,” Everyone Declined.

• “This is not our war, nor one we started,” said Boris Pistorius (German Defense Minister).
• Keir Starmer (UK Prime Minister) also stated, “We will not be dragged into a larger war.”
• Trump made no secret of his pout: “We don’t need anyone’s help,” insisting, “We are the strongest nation in the world, and this is not because we need them, but to test their loyalty—to see how they respond.”
• Related Link.

“No Troops, No Visit.”.

• Trump is also pressuring China. There is no reason for Beijing, which buys Iranian oil cheaply, to join the attack on Iran.
• The state visit to Beijing, scheduled for March 31–April 2, could also be postponed.

No Compromise on Prosecutorial Reform.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) drove the point home again. “The Public Prosecutors’ Office Act and the Corruption Investigation Office Act are not government bills but party-government consensus bills,” he emphasized. The implication: why the sudden reversal?
• “This party-government consensus is not a final, unchangeable decree. If needed, it can be revised. But not for someone’s political posturing or purposes unrelated to the core of prosecutorial reform.”
• This was a direct rebuke to hardliners within the Democratic Party who keep nitpicking.
• The Hankyoreh highlighted his warning—“Excessive ideological posturing becomes ammunition for counterattacks”—as its lead headline.
• Lee dismissed claims that insisting on calling the Public Prosecutors’ Office head “Prosecutor General” or referring to prosecutors as “public prosecutors” are trivialities.
• Kim Yong-min (Democratic Party lawmaker) and others argue for dismissing all prosecutors and rehiring selectively, but Lee drew a line: “There’s no clear reason to shoulder this burden while giving opponents a pretext for retaliation.”
• On supplementary investigative authority, he proposed, “Discuss it thoroughly.”
• The Democratic Party plans to pass both bills on the 19th.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Why “Feeling Duped” Is Trending on Ddanzi Ilbo’s Board.

• It’s about Lee Jae-myung’s (President) apparent wavering on prosecutorial reform.
• The attention also goes to Lee sharing a JoongAng Ilbo article quoting Kim Eo-jun (Ddanzi Ilbo CEO)’s remarks on “News Factory.”
• Kim Eo-jun said this:
• “You shouldn’t think this is defiance, stubbornness, or ignorance—and another Roh Moo-hyun situation must not happen, but I’m so worried. I want to be persuaded.”
• “Lee Jae-myung has an obsessive need for objectivity that a normal person wouldn’t require. Isn’t the president himself acting as a red team?”
• The concern is that prosecutorial reform needs to be pushed aggressively, but it isn’t. Lee’s decision to share the article might signal: no need to worry.
• Related Link.

“Poor Seniors, Can’t We Just Give Them More?”.

• Unlike other papers, JoongAng Ilbo elevated it to a front-page lead.
• Lee Jae-myung (President) outlined two directions for basic pension reform.
• First, reduce the couple’s reduction rate.
• Second, pay more to seniors with lower incomes.
• He posted on X: “Why not leave current payments as is and apply a progressive increase only to future raises?”
• The basic pension currently pays up to 349,700 KRW to 7.08 million seniors aged 65+ in the bottom 70% income bracket. Couples face a 20% cut. Those with monthly income under 2.47 million KRW (3.95 million for couples) receive the same amount.
• Oh Geon-ho (co-representative of “Welfare State We Make”) argued, “A flat-rate payment regardless of income has limited poverty-alleviation effects,” adding, “The eligibility should be narrowed to the bottom 50%.”
• Kim Mi-gon (former head of the Senior Human Resources Development Institute) claimed, “A universal allowance with progressive increases doesn’t make sense.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Deep Dive.

“Roh Moo-hyun’s Death Echoes,” Jeong Cheong-rae’s Grievance.

• Jeong Cheong-rae (Democratic Party Leader) said, “When we talk about prosecutorial reform, we naturally recall the death of Roh Moo-hyun (former president).” He maintains that prosecutorial reform at the level of dismantling the prosecution remains necessary.
• A Democratic Party lawmaker interviewed by The Hankyoreh assessed, “This is a statement made with the party’s base in mind.” “The prevailing view is that no major revisions will occur,” the source added.

“The Media Is Not a Wuxia Factory,” Kim Min-seok’s Strong Grievance.

• Kim Min-seok (Prime Minister) condemned Kim Eo-jun’s description of his meeting with Trump as a “next-generation leadership development program” as “absurd fantasy built on factual distortion, political overreach, and illogicality.”
• Though unnamed, the criticism clearly targeted Kim Eo-jun’s “News Factory.”
• He also remarked, “I believe there are journalistic ethics that should be upheld during the early tenure of a president who is performing exceptionally well.”
• Related Link.

Diesel-Overtakes-Gasoline Price Reversal.

• Prices that soared after the war’s outbreak are settling into place.
• Gasoline and diesel prices have each fallen to 1,832 KRW and 1,831 KRW per liter.
• Related Link.

Ko Seong-guk’s Endorsement: Lee Jung-hyun Pushes Lee Jin-suk.

• The People Power Party is only hot in Daegu and Busan.
• In Busan, Park Hyung-joon (Mayor of Busan) and Joo Jin-woo (People Power Party lawmaker) applied, but Lee Jung-hyun (People Power Party Nomination Committee Chair) insisted, “Cut off Park Hyung-joon and give Joo Jin-woo the sole nomination.”
• Park Hyung-joon protested, “This is a reckless sword dance that will destroy the party,” while Joo Jin-woo argued, “I sincerely hope for a primary.” The situation demands spectacle.
• In Daegu, incumbent lawmakers Joo Ho-young, Choo Kyung-ho, Yoo Young-ha, Choi Eun-seok, and former Commissioner Lee Jin-suk applied. Backtalk emerged that Lee Jung-hyun is pushing Lee Jin-suk, sparking fierce backlash.
• Joo Ho-young said, “I heard that Ko Seong-guk (YouTuber) recommended Lee Jung-hyun, and since Ko has been campaigning for Lee Jin-suk, they’re attempting a cut-off in response.”
• Related Link.

Another Take.

Why Should Wages Drop as Oil Prices Rise?

• This concerns special-employment workers. A 25-ton truck driver uses 3,067 liters of fuel monthly. If the price rises from 1,500 KRW to 2,000 KRW per liter, that’s an extra 1.5 million KRW spent—directly cutting their wages.
• If these workers were salaried employees, the employer would have borne this loss.
• The Yoon Suk-yeol government abolished the Safe Freight Rate System, which has been reinstated but only applies to cement and container trucks.
• Park Jeong-hun (Deputy Chair, Korean Public and Transport Workers’ Union, Korean Confederation of Trade Unions) noted, “The fundamental solution is to expand the Safe Freight Rate System to all freight workers, and eventually to all special-employment, platform, and freelance workers.”
• Some argue for a separate minimum compensation system beyond the minimum wage.
• The Lee Jae-myung government’s “Basic Law for Working People” is well-intentioned but abstract and non-binding. The criticism is: stop making declarations—start with what’s actionable.
• Related Link.

Iran’s Enriched Uranium.

• The U.S. estimates Iran possesses 440kg of uranium enriched to over 60%. Its exact location is unknown, and it is likely dispersed.
• 42kg of 60% uranium can produce 25g of weapons-grade 90% uranium. This amount is sufficient for 11 nuclear bombs.
• It cannot be eliminated by airstrikes, and ground invasion would be equally challenging. At least 1,000 troops would be required, with significant time, logistical difficulties, and high risks.
• Related Link.

Israel’s Nuclear Option.

• Observations suggest the Iron Dome (air defense system) is being depleted. Iran is waiting for Israel’s interceptors to run out.
• Concerns emerge that Israel might resort to nuclear weapons if it feels cornered.

Financial Supervisory Service Granted Investigative Powers.

• The Financial Supervisory Service can now authorize its Special Judicial Police to investigate cases it has examined internally.
• Previously, cases required review by a deliberation committee, followed by a Securities and Futures Commission referral to prosecutors, who then decided whether to investigate—a process taking nearly three months and raising concerns about evidence destruction.
• Critics warn this expands the FSS’s authority excessively.
• Related Link.

‘Apply First, Worry Later’ Is History as Subscription Applications Halve.

• It refers to the practice of securing a win first and worrying later. Last year, first-priority subscription applications dropped to 710,000—just 47% of the 1.52 million in 2024.
• Focusing solely on Seoul, both supply and applications declined. Last year’s supply was 3,922 units, with 420,000 applications.
• Park Ji-min (CEO, Wol-Yong Subscription Research Institute) forecasted, “The concentration on complexes with strong location and price competitiveness will intensify.”
• Related Link.

First Shareholder Meetings After Corporate Law Reforms.

• Activist funds are making stronger demands.
• Palliser Capital, a shareholder of LG Chem, demands the sale of LG Energy Solution shares and increased shareholder returns.
• Align Partners demands that Coway appoint an independent (outside) director as board chairman.
• Truston Asset Management demands Taekwang Industry acquire and retire its own shares.
• Related Link.

The Fix.

Paying Authors Every Time a Book Is Borrowed from a Library.

• It’s called Public Lending Rights (PLR), a concept originating in Denmark in 1946 and now implemented in 35 countries.
• Opposition cites three reasons:
• First, public library budgets are already insufficient—where would the money come from?
• Second, not all books are equal—should every book receive support?
• Third, funds would likely concentrate on famous authors, worsening inequality.
• Novelist Bang Hyun-seok (Bang Hyun-seok (Novelist)) believes solutions exist:
• First, dedicated funding must be created;
• Second, start with literary works—libraries have precise data;
• Third, set payment caps or tiered payments, as in the UK.
• Even Han Kang (Han Kang (Author))’s Nobel Prize failed to revive the dying publishing market. The argument is that libraries must step in.
• Related Link.

Will Lee Jae-myung Avoid Past Governments’ Repeated Mistakes?

• Jeong Heung-jun (Professor, Seoul University of Science and Technology) outlined three key labor policy challenges for the Lee Jae-myung administration.
• First, the Yellow Envelope Law is heading in the right direction but remains muddled. Unification of bargaining channels should only be strictly applied in multi-union situations.
• Second, the “Working People’s Law” requires coordination and persuasion. To protect special-employed, platform, and freelance workers, basic rights like fair contracts, non-discrimination, maternity protection, and industrial safety must follow up on declarations.
• Third, flexicurity must be approached cautiously. Flexibility is necessary, but stability must accompany it. Once excluded from regular positions, reentry is difficult, and non-regular hourly wages are only 70% of regular workers’. Strengthening flexibility in this structure would widen gaps.
• To be a successful government, it must reduce inequality. The administration should persuade both labor and management while taking responsibility for social safety nets.
• Related Link.

More Foreign Caregivers Are Needed.

• 800,000 caregivers will be needed by 2028, but only 690,000 hold certifications.
• Foreign caregivers numbered 6,644 as of 2024.
• The Immigration Policy Research Institute proposed, “Conditions for foreign workers must be improved and visa barriers lowered.” Immediate competition with Japan is inevitable.
• Kim Jeong-tae (The Korea Economic Daily columnist) emphasized, “Solutions must be found before a ‘caregiving crisis’ engulfs us.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

ICYMI.

Tesla’s Mad Max Mode.

• It’s the roughest among autonomous driving (FSD) modes. It violates speed limits, overtakes by crossing the center line, and sometimes ignores stop signals to keep racing forward.
• China’s autonomous driving is far more stable. Since the driving system is linked to traffic signals, it navigates routes considering signal locations. When stopped at a light, a countdown begins. Cars communicate with each other, drastically reducing collision risks. Baidu’s Apollo is widely regarded as more precise than GPS.
• Choe Pil-su (Professor, Sejong University) noted, “All these Chinese advantages might be over-specification.” The argument is that overly dense technology limits universal applicability—it might only work in China.
• Tesla can unleash Mad Max mode with just visual data and GPS signals. Who will dominate the market?
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

KDH Oscar Double Crown.

• This is the final conquest of a streak that began last year. ‘K-pop Demon Hunters’ won Best Animated Feature and Best Original Song.
• Maggie Kang (Director) said, “I’m sorry it took so long for a film with protagonists ‘who look like me’ to emerge.”
• Co-director Chris Appelhans (Director) remarked, “Music and storytelling possess the power to connect us beyond cultures and borders.”
• Lee Jae (Composer) shared, “As a child, people mocked me for loving K-pop—but now everyone sings our songs and follows Korean lyrics.”
• He added, “This award isn’t about success but about enduring and recovering.”
• Controversy erupted when exit music abruptly played mid-acceptance speech.
• CNN criticized, “Ignoring K-pop is shameful—this was a mistake.”
• ‘One Battle After Another’ swept six awards, including Best Picture and Best Director.
• Related Link.

Nvidia AI Chips Aim for $1 Trillion in Sales.

• Jensen Huang (Nvidia CEO) forecasts it. New services like Claude Code and Open Clo will expand the AI market further.
• The market consensus is $835 billion—but this projection exceeds even that.
• Related Link.

Worth Reading.

Indictment Withdrawal Deal? Who’s Smirking?

• Jang In-soo (former MBC journalist) might feel somewhat wronged.
• He heard a government high-ranking official allegedly ordered an indictment withdrawal and intended to warn that this could become a pretext for the prosecution to attack the Lee Jae-myung administration—but it was misconstrued as claiming [the Lee Jae-myung administration tried to strike a deal with the prosecution over the indictment withdrawal].
• Coinciding with frustrations over stalled prosecution reform, the powerful frame of [indictment withdrawal + deal] stuck. While Jang’s reporting may be criticized as sloppy, these were not his words.
• Kim Jeong-woo (The Korea Ilbo Issue 365 Team Head) noted, “Conservative media were the first to use this framing, and it solidified when pro-Lee factions uncomfortable with Kim Eo-jun joined in.” It’s a joint production of conservative media and pro-Lee factions.
• The debate over prosecution reform has vanished. When that happens, one must ask: who’s smirking now?
• Related Link.

Kim Eo-jun’s Unasked Question.

• Kim Eo-jun claims he merely relayed Jang In-soo’s claims—but Kim Hee-won (Head of News Standards, Hankook Ilbo) disagrees.
• A proper media outlet should have prioritized identifying the high-ranking official who allegedly proposed the indictment withdrawal to the prosecution. Journalists must verify claims, not just relay them.
• If the intent was to warn the prosecution, that’s even more dangerous. Kim Hee-won emphasized, “A journalist’s duty is not to issue warnings for a faction but to monitor power.”
• “The fallout came as a boomerang because the media failed to approach critical facts journalistically.”
• “As journalists gain recognition, greater challenges arise: Can they prioritize facts over partisan interests? Endure tedious verification over satisfying commentary? Criticize even their own side? (Omitted) I hope for more seriousness in journalistic norms. Stick to facts, don’t dismiss criticism as enemy attacks, and step back from Democratic Party alignment. Expect more misunderstandings, accusations, and legal threats from those once seen as allies. But this contributes to public interest—the true path of journalism.”
• Related Link.

Seoul Homeowner Tells Manager Kim to Pay Unemployment Benefits.

• In the drama ‘Seoul Homeowner Kim, Manager at a Conglomerate,’ Kim Nak-su (Manager) submits his resignation and asks to receive unemployment benefits. The HR director’s response: “You know it’s not possible.”
• Voluntary resignations do not qualify for unemployment benefits.
• Bang Jun-sik (Youngsan University Professor) outlined three reasons why unemployment benefits should be paid for voluntary unemployment.
• First, it contradicts the purpose. Premiums were paid diligently in anticipation of unemployment, so withholding them for voluntary cases is illogical.
• Second, livelihood protection is necessary even for voluntary unemployment.
• Third, eligibility criteria should be relaxed. The essence of unemployment benefits is to address unemployment as a social risk through social insurance. They should be paid regardless of effort.
• As for the budget? Bang proposed raising premiums and extending the minimum subscription period.
• Related Link.

We’ve Played This Game Before.

• Cho Hyun-sook (JoongAng Ilbo Economic Bureau Chief) sees this year as eerily similar to 2008.
• Middle East war, surging oil prices, high exchange rates. The government cut fuel taxes, investigated hoarding collusion, and poured out supplementary budgets. The Opinet oil price disclosure system was also created then.
• As we know, the 2008 crisis led to a bigger one—the financial crisis began after Lehman Brothers’ collapse.
• Will this year be different? Household debt has tripled, national debt quadrupled, and stock market margin trading (credit transactions) has increased tenfold. The U.S. private equity market’s instability is also concerning.
• Kenneth Rogoff (Harvard Professor) describes the “this-time-is-different syndrome” as a delusion that we’ve learned from past mistakes and become smarter. We always repeat the same errors, believing this time will be different.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Heroes of Renewable Energy.

• War has paradoxically heightened awareness that oil dependence must be reduced. Paul Krugman (New York City University professor) sarcastically praised Trump, noting that nuclear power has become as attractive as wind and solar.
• Han Sam-hee (environmental columnist) pointed out, “Solar and nuclear power don’t pass through the Strait of Hormuz.” António Guterres (UN Secretary-General) also once remarked, “Sunlight doesn’t experience price surges, and wind isn’t subject to trade blockades.”
• China’s desperation for solar, wind, and nuclear power stems from their domestic nature. Globally, two-thirds of the 380 GW of installed solar capacity is in China. The country is adding 32 more reactors to its existing 58.
• Han Sam-hee argues that among the three criteria for energy choice—supply stability, economic viability, and environmental impact—supply stability is paramount. “If supply is threatened, what meaning do costs or greenhouse gas concerns hold?” It’s a contentious claim.
• Related Link.

What If It Wasn’t December 3rd?

• If Yoon had chosen another date, martial law might have succeeded. If it had been a weekend, martial law forces might have sealed off the National Assembly before the motion to lift it could be voted on.
• The South Korean Constitution allows for such martial law. Woo Won-shik (National Assembly Speaker) strongly advocates for a “one-point constitutional amendment,” but many argue it’s not urgent.
• When should the amendment happen? Lee Kwan-hoo (Director of the National Assembly Research Service) argued, “If there’s a necessary and agreed-upon clause, it can be done pragmatically as needed.” “Taking the first step toward constitutional reform,” he said, “is a demand of history.”
• Related Link.