Trump’s Tariff War Reset? Global Tariffs Slammed at 15%.

• The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Donald Trump’s (U.S. President) tariff hikes without congressional approval were illegal. Six of nine justices voted in favor, with three dissenting.
• Trump claimed authority under the 1977 IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act), but the court rejected this argument.
• Trump immediately announced 10% global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act, then hours later raised it to 15%, signing an executive order.
• At a press conference, he stated, “We can collect more than what we’ve already collected by using other provisions,” citing Sections 301 and 232. Section 301 applies by country, Section 232 by product category.
• The BBC assessed, “The era of imposing and threatening triple-digit tariffs is over,” adding, “The seemingly invincible image he maintained has also been tarnished.”
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6:3 Supreme Court’s 3:6 Ruling.

• Six of nine justices are conservative-leaning, yet three of them deemed retaliatory tariffs illegal.
• “The authority to access the people’s wallet is granted solely to Congress,” was the reasoning.
• “The president cannot exercise powers exclusively granted to Congress by rearranging a few words,” was a notable critique.
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Tariff Refunds Are No Cakewalk.

• The Supreme Court only addressed procedural issues, not whether refunds are warranted.
• Tariffs are paid by importers and ultimately borne by U.S. consumers. Lawsuits against the U.S. government would be required, and they could drag on for a long time.
• The Wall Street Journal estimated refunds at $133 billion. Reuters analyzed over $175 billion. Goldman Sachs projected $115–145 billion.
• Tariff lawsuits could become a case of “putting a bell around a cat’s neck.” Companies risk retaliatory tariffs if they cross Trump.
• U.S. stocks edged up. Gold prices briefly plummeted before rebounding—a sign markets see no real change.
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South Korea’s 15% Tariff Ceiling.

• Nothing has changed. South Korea must anxiously worry that sparks could fly, with other security issues like nuclear-powered submarines also at stake.
• Automotive tariffs are unrelated to reciprocal rates, but Trump’s whims could raise them to 25% or higher at any moment. For now, the advice is to keep a low profile.

U.S. Investments Remain on Track.

• Cheong Wa Dae and the Ministry of Economy and Finance held an emergency meeting. They plan to process the U.S. Investment Special Act by the 9th of next month.
• Originally, $350 billion was to be invested under the condition of lowering the 25% reciprocal tariff to 15%, but the terms have changed. Ko Joon-sung (Industrial Research Institute Research Fellow) noted, “High tariffs on export-heavy items could cause greater damage.”
• The People’s Solidarity for Participatory Democracy issued a statement declaring, “The basis for the Korea-U.S. economic security agreement has collapsed” and argued, “The investment negotiations must be reviewed from scratch.”

Where Will Trump’s Rampage Lead?

• Trump’s approval ratings are abysmal. A Pew Research poll showed 60% disapproval, far outpacing 37% approval.
• He’s too invested in tariffs to back down easily, having already earmarked funds like $2.6 billion in military bonuses and $12 billion in farm bailouts.
• He promised $2,000 stimulus checks to Americans and plans federal income tax cuts.
• According to Yale’s Budget Institute, the U.S. average tariff rate was 16.9% as of late last year. Post-ruling, it would drop to 9.1%. The institute warns Trump’s Plan B could push it back to 15.4%.
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Trump Has Many Cards to Play.

• Section 122 of the Trade Act allows temporary tariffs for up to 150 days—buying time before restoring them via Super 301 or similar measures.
• Section 301, dubbed “Super 301,” targets “unfair trade practices” with no tariff ceiling.
• Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act applies when “national security” is threatened—also with no upper limit.
• Each requires prior investigations by the USTR or Commerce Department, and procedures are stringent.

What Matters Now.

Rebellion Off the Pardon Table, Legally Set in Stone.

• Yoon Suk-yeol may struggle to leave prison alive.
• A Democratic Party-led amendment to the Special Pardon Act passed a legislative subcommittee.
• It is scheduled for a plenary vote on the 24th.
• Kim Yong-min (Democratic Party lawmaker) stated, “This is our resolve to cut off the roots of rebellion.”
• There is an exception clause: a pardon is possible with the agreement of two-thirds of the National Assembly.
• The clause exists because the presidential pardon power guaranteed by the Constitution cannot be entirely stripped away.
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Jang Dong-hyeok Insists: “Presumption of Innocence, Martial Law ≠ Rebellion.”.

• “Are you out of your mind?” criticism poured in.
• Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party leader) declared defiance, saying, “I will take the criticism.” He argued, “We must decisively cut ties with forces trying to split the party by emphasizing severance from Yoon Suk-yeol.”
• Song Young-gil (Democratic Party leader) condemned, “This is outrageous,” asking, “Are Yoon and Jang now a single entity?”
• Backlash is also strong within the People Power Party.
• Lee Seong-gwon (People Power Party lawmaker) pointed out, “This is a declaration of severance from the people.”
• A People Power Party lawmaker interviewed by The Korea Times said, “Our party is determined to die—this was the last chance, and they kicked it away.” Another lawmaker remarked, “The election is effectively over.”
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“Martial Law Was a Nation-Saving Decision,” This Is an Apology?

• Yoon Suk-yeol issued a statement “deeply apologizing to the people.” He claimed it was a “nation-saving decision” and that “the sincerity and purpose of acting solely for the country and its people remain unchanged.”
• His claim of “political retaliation” is equally absurd. He even spouted the nonsensical argument, “Do not undermine democracy and consider the people’s lives.”
• “Our fight is not over, we must unite and rise” is a distinctly political message.
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Future Coalition? The Republican Party Opening the Future?

• The final two party name candidates are in.
• The Democratic Republican Party, the “All Together Republican Party,” the Liberal Democratic Party, and the “Together Republican” are also on the shortlist.
• It was Jang Dong-hyeok’s (People Power Party leader) counterplay, but with limited effect—postponed until after the election.

Deep Dive.

Judicial Reform Bills: Speed Over Deliberation.

• First, create a new crime of judicial distortion,
• Second, introduce constitutional appeals (amendment to the Constitutional Court Act),
• Third, increase Supreme Court justices from 14 to 26 (amendment to the Court Organization Act).
• Jeong Cheong-rae (Democratic Party leader) said, “If we miss this moment, when can we ever promise to try again?”
• It passed the Legislation and Judiciary Committee yesterday and is likely to be pushed through to the plenary session.
• Lee Chan-hee (former Korean Bar Association president) noted, “While constitutional appeals should be introduced with restrictions, there needs to be public consensus and in-depth discussion on which cases they should apply to.”
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Mandatory Share Buyback Burns: Third Corporate Law Revision Ahead.

• The bill passed the National Assembly’s Legislation and Judiciary Committee. Companies must burn shares within one year of acquisition.
• Shares acquired before the law takes effect will have a 18-month deadline.
• First, the intent is to ban holding shares for management control purposes. Second, burning shares is said to boost stock value.
• KOSPI and KOSDAQ companies hold 3% and 2% of their shares, respectively—roughly 130 trillion won and 11 trillion won.
• Opposition lacks strong grounds. While some argue, “Shares bought during downturns can be sold for equipment investments,” this is not the norm.
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Ukraine War Complicated by Trump.

• It will be four years on the 24th. Russia insists Ukraine must withdraw from Donbas, and Ukraine cannot retreat.
• Trump’s pro-Russia stance has clashed with Europe, while Vladimir Putin (Russian President) is buying time to strengthen his bargaining power.
• The Wall Street Journal analyzed, “Russia and Ukraine are masking the stalemate with optimistic diplomatic rhetoric to avoid angering Trump,” adding, “the war could last 1–3 more years.”
• Choi Hee-jin (Kyunghyang Shinmun International Affairs Editor) noted, “No one knows how this war will end, but a conclusion that rewards the aggressor with spoils must not be tolerated.”
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U.S. Military Jets in South Korea Provoke China.

• About a dozen F-16 fighters took off from Osan Air Base and approached the Chinese Air Defense Identification Zone (CADIZ). There was no prior consultation with the South Korean government. Though no collision occurred, the situation was hair-raising.
• An Kyu-baek (Minister of National Defense) reportedly protested to Xavier Brunson (Commander of U.S. Forces Korea), but critics argue this is not a matter to be easily dismissed.
• First, this incident signals that the U.S. military’s purpose in South Korea is shifting from defending Korea to countering China. Brunson has even stated, “We cannot confine U.S. forces to the Korean Peninsula alone.”
• Second, South Korea risks being dragged into U.S.-China disputes.
• In an editorial, Kyunghyang Shinmun argued, “Real-time sharing of U.S. military training information must be accompanied by effective control mechanisms, such as a ‘prior approval system,’ to prevent provocative actions toward neighboring countries.”
• Last year, South Korea agreed to purchase $25 billion in U.S. military equipment during tariff negotiations and provide $33 billion in support to U.S. forces by 2030.
• Kyunghyang Shinmun pointed out, “The reality that U.S. forces stationed under the pretext of defending Korea are becoming a ‘security threat’ to Korea itself betrays that trust.” Donga Ilbo emphasized, “We must prevent our ally’s strategic flexibility from becoming strategic uncertainty for us.”
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Another Take.

Yoo Si-min Calls Criticism of “Crazy Act” “Normal Criticism.”.

• Pro-Lee faction lawmakers formed a group to demand the dismissal of Lee Jae-myung’s indictment, prompting Yoo Si-min (author) to criticize it as a “crazy act.” He insisted, “Those in the group should leave quickly.”
• There were suspicions that anti-Choi forces were trying to rally.
• Chae Hyun-il (Democratic Party lawmaker) countered, “In this unprecedented constitutional situation where the prosecution has not dropped the indictment even after the president-elect took office, why is it strange for lawmakers to voice their opinions?”
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Will Multi-Homeowner Regulations Shrink Rental Supply?

• Kyunghyang Shinmun analyzed that the claim is half-true and half-false.
• Lee Jae-myung (President) posted on X, “If multi-homeowners or rental businesses sell their properties, rental supply may decrease—but so will rental demand.” He argued, “It’s more logical that increased listings stabilize home prices, which in turn stabilizes rental prices.”
• Choi Kyung-ho (Director of the Housing Neutrality Research Institute) stated, “Even if total supply-demand balance holds, short-term rental shortages and housing instability could emerge in specific regions or property types.”
• “Short-term shocks may concentrate in non-apartment markets like villas and officetels, where multi-homeowner rentals dominate,” he added.
• Choi Eun-young (Director of the Korea Urban Research Institute) argued, “Direct measures are needed, such as expanding the government’s immediate purchase of properties sold by multi-homeowners to convert them into public rentals—a ‘shock therapy’ approach.”
• Choi Kyung-ho suggested, “Mandatory registration of rental properties, combined with tax incentives tied to public housing commitments like renewal rights and fair rent guarantees, could encourage owners to retain unsold properties as affordable, stable rentals.”
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No Loan Extensions for Multi-Homeowners.

• The government is considering a plan to disallow loan maturity extensions for multi-homeowners.
• The outstanding balance of multi-homeowner mortgage loans at the five major banks is 36.5 trillion won—2.3 times higher than January 2023.

Can the Government Outsmart the Market? Will Gangnam Prices Finally Dip?

• Gangnam apartment asking prices are falling. Listings priced hundreds of millions of won lower have increased.
• A real estate agent interviewed by JoongAng Ilbo said, “People who really need cash are listing properties at rock-bottom prices.”
• The “D-Day” for the multi-homeowner capital gains tax hike is May 9. Analysts suggest tax-avoidance listings are surging.
• Nam Hyuk-woo (Woori Bank researcher) forecasted, “If older single-homeowners—worried about future tax burdens—start selling, price growth could soon turn negative.” He added, “If prices drop in Gangnam, a last-stop for property upgraders, surrounding areas may follow with a lag.”
• Park Won-gap (KB Real Estate senior analyst) said, “You can avoid selling, but not taxes,” and predicted, “For now, the government may seem to be outmaneuvering the market.”
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What If You Discuss Murder Plans with ChatGPT?

• Eight people died in a mass shooting in Canada.
• The suspect, Van Roostelaar, discussed a shooting scenario with ChatGPT last August, and it was flagged by OpenAI’s review system. It was later revealed that OpenAI employees discussed follow-up measures but only blocked the account and took no further action.
• Two issues arise.
• First, how deeply does OpenAI scrutinize conversations?
• Second, how should responsibility be assigned for knowing—and ignoring—warning signs?
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ChatGPT: Personal Use Outpaces Professional.

• In July 2024, the split between work and non-work use was 51% to 49%, but by late last year, it widened to 31% and 69%. This excludes enterprise accounts.
• For OpenAI, which recently launched an advertising business, the rise in personal use is a strong marketing point.
• The decline in professional usage could also reflect high-frequency work users migrating to enterprise accounts.
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The Fix.

Withdrawing Life-Sustaining Treatment: The Question Is Timing.

• 3.23 million people have signed advance directives for life-sustaining treatment. 22% of the 10.9 million population aged 65+ have signed.
• Yet, life-sustaining treatment withdrawal occurs in less than 20% of deaths.
• Withdrawal is highly restricted—only permitted during the terminal phase when death is imminent. Terminally ill patients do not qualify.
• There are cases like this: A lung cancer patient who refused treatment after three years of illness remains on a ventilator despite being unconscious—because the process is not yet terminal.
• In practice, medical staff struggle to distinguish between terminal and end-stage phases.
• Lee Jae-myung (President) remarked at a State Council meeting, “Futile life-sustaining treatment is painful for patients and families, and burdens health insurance finances,” sparking formal discussions.
• A medical school professor interviewed by JoongAng Ilbo said, “A clear explanation system is needed to prevent withdrawal from being mistaken for abandoning pain management or basic care.”
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Hospitals with Integrated Nursing-Care Units Are a Lottery.

• These are wards where nurses and nursing assistants handle both medical and custodial care—even changing diapers. Of 1,816 hospitals, 790 (44%) operate them, but only 9,463 beds (23%) are available out of 40,071 total, creating fierce competition.
• Hospitals prefer admitting mild cases if possible. Reimbursement rates do not differ between severe and mild patients.
• Patients in integrated nursing-care wards are 13% less likely to be readmitted within 30 days of discharge.
• Japan’s full nursing system outright bans family caregiving.
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Caregiving Refugees.

• Patients who cannot access proper caregiving services and wander between facilities. Of the 1.05 million elderly receiving caregiving services, 10–20% are estimated to be “caregiving refugees.”
• Few elderly or families can afford monthly caregiving costs exceeding ₩4 million. Most nursing hospitals operate a 1:6 system, where one ethnic Chinese caregiver oversees six patients 24/7.
• Severely ill patients are either turned away or forced to drift between better-equipped facilities. Caregivers are often too busy to respond to calls.
• A dementia patient interviewed by Chosun Ilbo changed caregivers seven times in six months. One left after just one day. Others were forced to transfer after hospitals pressured them to discharge. Ultimately, the patient’s daughter quit her job to provide home care.
• Caregivers are not hospital employees and operate outside institutional control—unlike state-certified nursing assistants.
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Last Year’s 6 Billion Parcel Deliveries.

• That’s roughly 115 packages per person annually for South Koreans.
• The Ministry of Climate, Energy, and Environment will enforce parcel packaging regulations starting in April.
• Single-use packaging must reduce empty space to 50% or less.

KTX Cancellation Fees Rise, No-Shows Fall.

• 0.7 percentage points reduced. Based on 955 seats, about 30 more can now be filled. Last year, Korail collected 50 billion won in cancellation fees.
• Expanding weekend-only cancellation penalty surcharges to weekdays is also under review.
• The one-way Seoul-Busan fare is 59,800 won, but canceling right before departure incurs 3,000 won on weekdays and 12,000 won on weekends.

ICYMI.

“No Research Should Halt for Lack of Funds.”.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) made these remarks at the KAIST graduation ceremony. “Increasing the basic research budget by 17% is our government’s greatest achievement,” he emphasized.
• This is the same graduation ceremony where the Yoon Suk-yeol administration’s “mouth gagging” incident occurred two years ago. The Yoon Suk-yeol administration faced massive backlash after attempting to cut 5 trillion won from the 2024 R&D budget.
• Cheers and selfies never ceased that day.
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Samsung Electronics’s Pyeongtaek Campus: A Construction Site the Size of 400 Soccer Fields.

• Reports suggest the 2.89 million m² site will see over 30,000 construction workers commuting daily—a Chosun Ilbo field report.
• As the construction industry contracts, jobless workers nationwide flock to the project. Unlike apartment sites now crowded with foreign laborers, this national infrastructure project hires only Korean nationals.
• Pyeongtaek’s population grew from 460,000 in 2015 to 610,000 last year. Local tax revenue jumped from ₩758.2 billion to ₩1.4354 trillion. Monthly rent for one-room units doubled from ₩750,000 to ₩1.4 million.
• Once dubbed a “graveyard of unsold apartments,” Pyeongtaek saw unsold units drop from 6,438 in January to 3,594 by November last year. The analysis: jobs revive local economies.
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Fubao Costs.

• Annual protection funds of $1 million per pair must be paid to China.
• Analysis suggests breeding facilities alone could cost around ₩30 billion due to stringent Chinese standards.
• President Lee Jae-myung suggested, “It would be nice to send Fubao back,” and Climate, Energy, and Environment Minister Kim Sung-hwan visited Gwangju Uchi Zoo, stating, “We’ll strive to bring him.” Expectations have since swelled.
• When Fubao was at Everland, the park covered all costs. Will Gwangju City be able to afford it?
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Paying Late Fees to Get Aboard.

• “I started investing with a 1 million won late fee” or “I’ll pay 30 million won in late fees to buy before prices rise further”—these are how the term is used.
• Seo Bo-mi (Hankyoreh reporter) noted, “The worldview that ‘late timing = cost’ is expanding.” Paying late fees doesn’t erase anxiety. “In this ‘late fee society’ that makes one anxious just to hear about it, any choice forces a race against others’ speed,” she diagnosed.
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Electric Vehicle Price Wars.

• Tesla Model 3 AWD is now sold at ₩59.99 million, down from ₩69.39 million.
• Volvo EX30 Core will be reduced to ₩39.91 million from ₩47.52 million.
• Battery prices have first dropped. A lithium-ion battery pack cost $827 per kWh in 2013 but fell to $108 last year.
• Chinese subsidies and tax incentives also play a role. Tesla received 2.1 billion yuan in subsidies in 2020 alone.
• Chinese BYD Dolphin is priced in the ₩20 million range.
• South Korea is an electric vehicle testing ground. Competition here is fiercer than elsewhere. Jo Cheol (Industrial Research Institute researcher) forecasted, “Internal combustion and electric vehicle prices will soon converge.”
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Recession-Proof Goods: Lottery Sales Surge.

• Sales jumped over 50% in Q1 last year, immediately after the emergency measures.
• Households with two or more unmarried children spent 471 won monthly in Q1 2024, rising to 708 won—a 50% increase.
• The overall household average remained steady at 700 won (2% difference).
• Last year’s lottery sales totaled 6.2 trillion won.

Women Buy 71% of Korean Novels.

• Women write them, women read them.
• Female readers in their 20s and 30s account for 22% and 19% respectively. Males in their 20s and 30s are 4% and 7%.
• This year’s Yi Sang Literary Award winners were all six women—the first time in 44 years.
• Last year’s top 20 Kyobo bestsellers in Korean fiction included only two male authors.
• The Korea Daily assessed, “It’s reasonable to interpret that readers are responding to literature that concretely explores how to live in the contemporary era, and within that, the achievements of female writers stand out.”
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Worth Reading.

What’s Wrong with Jang Dong-hyeok?

• Cheon Gwang-am (editorial director of Dong-A Ilbo) analyzes:
• First, he may have been trapped by gaslighting from hardline right-wing YouTubers, losing his ability to make rational judgments.
• Second, it could be a deliberate election strategy to secure his base first. Cheon Gwang-am criticized this as “the absurd idea of turning around a 4-2 soccer deficit with a 10-back full-defense tactic.”
• Third, he might simply have no interest in elections. Does he believe holding party power alone suffices? It’s true that under Jang’s leadership, People Power Party membership grew from 750,000 to 1 million. But can he retain his position if he loses the election?
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Poverty Rate 15%, Social Safety Net Covers 3%.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) criticized the “application-based system as a cruel policy,” but the issue is not identification—it’s substantive support.
• Lee Jae-im (activist at Solidarity for Poor Society) asks, “Are the poor relics?”
• In 2023 alone, 1.41 million people were identified as potential beneficiaries, but 64% were excluded for exceeding income or asset thresholds. “Identification expanded, but the bar remained unchanged.” Lee Jae-im noted, “The state didn’t save people—it collected data.”
• The median income benchmark fails to reflect reality. In 2018, the ratio of the benchmark to median income was 89% for single-person households; by 2024, it dropped to 81%. Despite promises to address relative poverty, criteria have tightened. The “three-mother incident” (suicide of a destitute family) is no coincidence.
• Lee Jae-im emphasized, “The problem isn’t failure to find people—it’s failure of the criteria.” The focus should not be on hidden individuals but on a system that excludes them.
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A Fancy, Expensive Hammer Emerges.

• You’re carrying fertilizer to the market. A saying about blindly following others without thinking.
• Empty reports claiming “AI-driven innovation” are no different. Park Tae-woong (Chair of Nokseo Forum) emphasized, “Data is paramount.”
• “You can’t choose tools without first understanding the problem.”
• “If the task is cutting wood, you need a saw; if it’s hammering nails, a hammer; if painting, a brush. It’s absurd for someone with no nails to buy an expensive, fancy hammer. You’re carrying fertilizer on your back!”
• “The first step in any project must be setting success criteria upfront. Most South Korean government projects succeed because they set standards retroactively—shooting the arrow first, then painting the target. How can you miss when you draw the bullseye around the arrow?”
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Feedback.

Trial Review is Not a Fourth Instance.

• Last Friday’s Slowletter introduced Jeong Won-soo’s (Dong-A Ilbo deputy editor) column, “Trial review could become a law that kills the Constitutional Court.” But the same issue featured an interview with Lee Kang-kuk (former head of the Constitutional Court) with a contrasting tone.
• Lee Kang-kuk said, “I opposed trial review 38 years ago, but I now regret that stance. Having experienced constitutional adjudication, I believe trial review should be introduced.”
• “Even if trial review is adopted, as seen in Germany, the acceptance rate would likely remain low,” he argued. “It doesn’t re-examine the interpretation or application of laws but solely judges whether constitutional rights were violated in finalized rulings—making its scope and purpose entirely distinct.”
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