“Unconditional Surrender” as a Bargaining Chip.

• Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Prime Minister) is the sole beneficiary, according to analysis. His approval ratings have surged.
• Donald Trump (U.S. President) set “Iran’s unconditional surrender” as a negotiation condition, while Ali Larijani (Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary) vowed, “The U.S. will surely pay a price.”
• Kurdish mercenaries will not be deployed. “The war is already complex enough without their involvement,” one official remarked.
• The New York Times noted, “Trump’s war objectives have shifted ten times in a week.” Even his staff struggles to keep up with his whims.
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UAE Under Iranian Attack, Israel Strikes Lebanon.

• Observers suggest neighboring states’ patience to avoid escalation with Iran has reached its limit.
• The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) issued a statement condemning “Iran’s vile attacks on Bahraini and Kuwaiti infrastructure as dangerous acts of aggression threatening regional security and stability.”
• Israel’s strike on Lebanon is also concerning. Though claimed to target the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) overseas operations unit, fears grow that the conflict is expanding.
• Reuters analyzed, “The IRGC is defying the moderate president’s directives.” The Guardian assessed, “The central command structure has collapsed.”
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The Unending War, Crude Output Disruptions, and Production Cuts.

• There are no ships to transport oil, and with no transportation, storage space is insufficient, making production impossible.
• Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, and some facilities have been directly attacked.
• West Texas Intermediate crude rose to $90.1 per barrel. According to Goldman Sachs, supply disruptions have reached 1.7 million barrels per day.
• South Korean gasoline prices also surged 18% from 1,598 won on the 28th of last month to 1,895 won.
• [Breaking] International oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel as of Sunday U.S. time.
• The exchange rate may also surpass 1,500 won.
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What If a Price Ceiling on Oil Is Imposed?

• While the government could set a maximum price, no such policy has been implemented since 1997.
• Woo Suk-jin (Professor at Myongji University) warned, “The allocation function could break down, leaving those in urgent need without timely supply.” There are also concerns that the system might hit a supply cliff.
• The government would have to cover losses, creating a significant financial burden.
• Kim Kwang-seok (Head Researcher at the Korea Economic Industry Research Institute) noted, “Rather than direct price controls, it would be more appropriate for the government to intervene against companies causing moral hazard.”
• Related Link.

Black Monday Fears Today.

• New York stock markets fell in unison last Friday.
• IMF analysis shows that if energy prices remain 10% higher for a year, global inflation would rise by 0.4 percentage points and economic growth would slow by 0.1–0.2 percentage points.
• Kim Jin-wook (Citibank economist) estimated, “This year’s growth decline will be the second-largest in Korea after Taiwan, and next year Korea’s will be even larger.” If oil prices reach $112, this year’s growth could drop to 1.1%.
• The speed of oil price increases is nearly identical to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, when prices peaked at $120.
• The Wall Street Journal analyzed, “The oil market is sinking into severe panic.”
• The Korean KOSPI hinges on retail investors. While foreign investors net-sold 4.7 trillion won over two days (3rd–4th), retail investors net-bought 6.1 trillion won to absorb the sell-off. Retailers net-bought Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Hyundai Motor for 5.3 trillion, 2.0 trillion, and 1.2 trillion won respectively from the 3rd to 6th.
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6 Million Barrel Emergency Infusion.

• With a daily crude oil demand of 2.81 million barrels, 6 million barrels covers about three days’ worth.
• Plans were made to redirect tankers to alternative ports outside the Strait of Hormuz.
• Current reserves already hold 208 days’ worth of crude, leaving some breathing room.
• Fertilizer is another issue: Gulf states produce one-third of the world’s urea fertilizer.
• Related Link.

Fuel Prices Soar, Transport Costs Stagnate: “We Can’t Survive Like This.”.

• “Our immediate income will drop by 1.5 million won.” This is the account of a truck driver interviewed by Kyunghyang Shinmun.
• A 21-ton truck holds 320 liters of fuel. What used to cost around 500,000 won now costs 640,000 won. Refueling every two days, the driver’s losses could easily exceed 1.5 million won monthly, as transport fees and subsidies remain unchanged.
• Related Link.

What Matters Now.

“Not the Supreme Leader’s Son.”.

• Donald Trump (U.S. President) seems to want to follow the Venezuela model, but the situation is vastly different.
• In an Axios interview, he said, “I want to be involved in the process of selecting Iran’s leader” and “That way, we won’t have to repeat these attacks every five years.”
• [Breaking] According to the Wall Street Journal, Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has been elected as his successor. Trump denounced it as “an unacceptable choice.”
• The Washington Post reports that the Iranian regime is unlikely to collapse. There is also little room for Trump to intervene.
• Related Link.

Yeocheon NCC Declares Force Majeure.

• It’s an industry term. When uncontrollable external factors like war make it impossible to fulfill product contracts, immediate notification is required to claim exemption from liability.
• Yeocheon NCC (a naphtha cracking facility) was the first to exhaust its reserves. 54% of the naphtha Korea imports passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Naphtha prices have surged 28% in one week.

Russia’s Windfall Profit.

• Combined, Iran and Venezuela account for 17% of China’s oil imports—now gone. Expectations grow that Beijing will turn to Russian oil.
• Janet Yellen (U.S. Treasury Secretary) even suggested, “Sanctions on Russian crude could be lifted.”
• Vladimir Putin (Russian President) remarked, “New markets are now opening.”

Deep Dive.

Diego Garcia.

• It is a British island territory 3,795 km southeast of Iran. Though the former British colony Mauritius gained independence in 1968, it remained under British control until last year, when it was transferred to Mauritius on a 99-year lease.
• A U.S. military base is located here, with agreements restricting its use to defensive activities. It lies outside Iran’s missile range yet hosts the closest airfield for bombers to take off.
• When the U.S. announced plans to use Diego Garcia in an attack on Iran, Keir Starmer (UK Prime Minister) initially opposed it.
• Trump sarcastically remarked, “I don’t like the UK” and “Surprising, the person we’re dealing with isn’t Winston Churchill.”
• Starmer, citing “national interest,” resisted for days before ultimately permitting the base’s use.
• Related Link.

Will Oh Se-hoon Abandon His Nomination Bid?

• Yesterday was the People Power Party’s candidate application deadline, but he did not submit his application.
• He drew a line in the sand: “We must break free from the ‘Yoon Again’ party to hold elections.” He also remarked, “Public sentiment is so hostile that even party loyalists can’t pass out business cards—what’s the point of candidate registration or primaries?”
• Other potential candidates—Na Kyung-won (People Power Party lawmaker), Yoo Seung-min (former Saenuri Party lawmaker), and Ahn Cheol-soo (People Power Party lawmaker)—also declined to apply.
• The party’s general meeting of lawmakers convenes today. Some assess, “The golden time has passed.”
• Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party leader) has remained silent for three days.
• Speculation also surfaces that Oh Se-hoon (Seoul mayor) is eyeing the next party leadership. The narrative is that his election chances are uncertain anyway, so he’s positioning for a post-Jang era.
• Chosun Ilbo editorialized, “A dismal reality.” From the party’s perspective, Seoul was one of the few winnable regions—but even the incumbent mayor hesitates to register, signaling total collapse.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
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“Legislative Power Lies with the Party,” Jeong Cheong-rae Stands Firm.

• Choo Mi-ae (Democratic Party lawmaker, Judiciary Committee chair) struck first.
• “It left intact the ‘imperial’ prosecutor general’s authority and the prosecution’s investigative command over special judicial police—only the title changed from Prosecutors’ Office Act to Public Prosecutors’ Office Act,” she vented. She posted several impassioned messages on Facebook.
• Regarding prosecutorial reform, Lee Jae-myung (President) has intervened multiple times to mediate, and revised bills have emerged—but criticism persists.
• Jeong Cheong-rae (Democratic Party leader) stepped in: “Legislative power belongs to the party, so coordination is possible,” he stated.
• Lee Jae-myung posted this on X: “The attitude that ‘my opinion is the only truth and justice, while yours is injustice and falsehood’ can lead to extreme confrontation and failure.”
• “One must never abandon the ideals, values, or promises held before becoming president—but once president and in power, one cannot and should not do whatever they please.”
• Related Link.
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“Just Renamed the Prosecutors’ Office to the Public Prosecutors’ Office.”.

• “Prosecutorial authority has actually expanded” is the claim by Kim Yong-min (Democratic Party lawmaker). “It could become a more powerful institution than the current prosecution,” he argued.
• Critics note this goes beyond mere textual or technical revisions. While Jeong Cheong-rae considers minor adjustments, hardliners demand far more sweeping changes.
• Though scheduled for a vote on the 19th in the plenary session, tensions may not subside easily.

Will the Former Officials’ Market Shift?

• Law firms now prefer former police officers. As police investigative authority expands, ex-police lawyers’ value is soaring. From 2020–2025, 99 police retirees qualified as lawyers.
• One major firm hired one former prosecutor, drawing 15 applicants. Last year, 175 prosecutors retired—unlike the days when firms competed to recruit them.
• Corporate government-affairs teams reportedly cut budgets for prosecutors’ liaison roles.
• Related Link.

No Cash Buyers for These Prices.

• Top 20% apartment price growth slowed to 0.2% in February.
• Average sale price: 3.4712 billion won.
• Analysts predict a likely shift to decline in March—the first since February 2024.
• Ko Joon-seok (Yonsei University professor) stated, “Even a slight dip in Gangnam’s high-end prices due to tightened loan regulations won’t attract buyers—there are simply no cash-rich buyers capable of purchasing at these levels,” adding, “Until the May 9th capital gains tax surcharge postponement, steeply discounted distress sales will continue.”
• Related Link.
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House Prices Must Stabilize for Consumption and Birth Rates to Rise.

• 76% of Korean household assets remain locked in real estate, according to a Shinhan Financial Future Strategy Institute report.
• “The number of ‘wealthy, liquidity-constrained households’—where paper assets grow with rising home prices but spendable cash remains scarce—is rapidly increasing,” the analysis states.
• The wealth gap has also widened. The top 20% hold 65% of total assets (by net worth), while the bottom 40% claim just 4.8%.

Another Take.

Glass Ceiling Index: Is 28th Place a Relief?

• South Korea ranks 28th again this year, as it did last year. Among 29 OECD member states, only Turkey ranks lower at 29th. The metric is published annually by The Economist.
• Female labor participation in South Korea lags 15 percentage points behind males. The OECD average gap is 13.8 percentage points.
• Women hold 8.7% of board seats in listed South Korean companies. The OECD average is 33.6%.
• Women account for 20.0% of South Korea’s legislature. The OECD average is 34.3%.
• Kim Yu-ri (National Women’s Trade Union Organizing Director) criticized, “The structure of exploiting women as cheap labor persists from hiring to termination,” adding, “A mandatory gender pay gap reporting system is essential.” “The moment wages are revealed,” she said, “equality begins.”
• Related Link.
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Land Parceling and Purchase Allegations Against Jeong Jeong-ok.

• Purchased 254.3m² of farmland in Icheon, Gyeonggi Province, for 70 million won in 2016.
• Also acquired 155.6m² of farmland in Siheung, Gyeonggi Province, under a child’s name for 32 million won.
• The allegations surfaced after Lee Jae-myung (President) announced a full audit of farmland holdings and a mandate to order sales.
• The Blue House stated, “The same standards apply to everyone.”
• Jeong Jeong-ok (Blue House Secretary) may not be the only one.
• Related Link.
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Villas Flooded with Jeonse Demand.

• Apartment supply remains insufficient, while villa and officetel construction starts have also declined. Jeonse listings themselves have sharply decreased.
• The villa jeonse price index, with March 2025 as 100, has risen to 102.21—recovering to pre-2022 jeonse fraud levels.
• Seoul apartment jeonse listings are down 39% year-on-year.
• The shift from jeonse to monthly rent is accelerating. Among villa lease contracts, jeonse transactions fell 17% while monthly rent transactions rose 16%, with monthly rent now accounting for 60%.
• Related Link.

The Fix.

Yongsan’s 10,000 Households? What About Schools?

• Lee Jae-myung’s government announced plans to build 10,000 units in Yongsan, leaving the People Power Party flustered.
• The conservative camp’s longstanding refrain was that left-wing governments inflate real estate prices and that supply—not taxes—should be the solution. Now, with a supply-heavy proposal, their attack points have vanished.
• A forum co-hosted by Kwon Young-se (People Power Party lawmaker) and Seoul City revealed telling details. The party’s lawmakers are fixated on elementary schools: how can 10,000 units be built without them?
• They can’t outright oppose increasing supply, so their objection—10,000 is excessive—acknowledges the direction is correct.
• Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, facing a lack of campaign cards for the local elections, claims 6,000 units are possible without schools, 8,000 with them.
• Building 10,000 units without schools is impractical. The catch: schools reduce available land, forcing higher density or smaller units. Other Seoul areas face declining enrollment and even school closures, yet 30-minute commutes or overcrowded classrooms remain concerns.
• Proposals for vertical schools—like those in Hong Kong or Tokyo—emerged. “What about playgrounds?” The answer: rooftops or nearby parks. Schools are just an excuse. The real issue is that the opposition has no better argument.
• Shin Dong-wook (People Power Party lawmaker) remarked, “Has a progressive government ever solved Seoul’s real estate issues? I oppose recklessly altering Seoul’s map this way.”
• The fear is palpable: the conservatives’ sole narrative—progressives ruin real estate—could be stolen.
• Of course, schools must be addressed. Solutions exist. They just require effort.
• Related Link.

Mental Illness? Autism? We Call It Neurodiversity.

• There is a group called Sebada that supports neurodiversity.
• Neurodiversity is a concept that recognizes differences in brain development—such as autism spectrum disorder, mental disabilities, learning disorders, ADHD—as forms of diversity.
• Hiding one’s neurodivergence is called masking, and losing regulatory control due to extreme stress from masking is called a meltdown. Sebada Shelter is a place where neurodiversity supporters gather without masking, free from nagging or suppression, to talk and play.
• Cho Mi-jung (Sebada Representative) says, “I hope for a time when all neurodivergent people can live as the ‘masters’ of their own lives.”
• Related Link.

Data Centers in Five Years, Nuclear Plants in Fifteen.

• Concerns about not having enough electricity to power 260,000 NVIDIA GPUs might be exaggerated. Jo Hyun-chul (Sogang University professor) noted, “The current floating power demand figures are inflated or unclear,” adding, “There’s likely an underlying agenda.”
• Assume there is a power shortage for data centers. Yet data centers take 2–3 years to build, while nuclear plants require 15 years. Does the argument that AI necessitates nuclear power hold up?
• “If only the simple maxim from the Old Testament—‘Do not do unto others what you do not want done unto yourself’—were realized, the world would overflow with peace. If something is a public matter that must be done despite being ‘what everyone dislikes,’ there must first be sufficient social discussion.”
• Related Link.

ICYMI.

25th 10-Million-Movie Milestone.

• Jang Hang-jun (director)’s ‘The Man Standing Next to the King’ surpassed 10 million viewers in 31 days. Including foreign films, it is the 34th to achieve this.
• Two days later, on the 8th, it crossed 11 million.

BLACKPINK’s Golden Era?

• Rolling Stone’s assessment.
• ‘Deadline’ sold 1.46 million copies on its release day, 1.77 million in a week.
• Reviews are mixed. Pitchfork called it “repeating outdated styles,” adding, “a comeback with an album lacking insight.” Slant Magazine described it as “meticulously factory-produced” yet “most tracks are unappealing.”
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How to Eat a Hamburger Well.

• Chris Kempczinski’s (McDonald’s CEO) mukbang was a disaster.
• It was a video introducing the new Big Archie burger, but the top comment was, “That’s the smallest first bite I’ve ever seen.” The critique: he pretended to eat but lacked soul.
• Kempczinski even called the burger a “product.” “I love this product.”
• Days later, Tom Curtis (Burger King CEO) filmed his own mukbang—and it was clearly different. He took a big bite and smiled genuinely happy. It even boosted McDonald’s sales.
• After it went viral, McDonald’s turned self-deprecation into an ad: “Take a bite of our new product.” The caption read, “I didn’t expect approval from upstairs.” Regardless, the new product’s sales increased. The X video got 42.86 million views.
• Curtis worked in fast-food restaurants since college. He started as a Domino’s Pizza deliveryman, became a store manager after graduation, and joined the corporate team in 2006. Burger King brought him on as CEO in 2021.
• Curtis simplified recipes by cutting hard-to-make menu items. He was a CEO who knew the stores.
• Last month, he intentionally publicized his phone number—work-only, no calls at night. Over 20,000 messages and calls flooded in, including complaints about soggy nuggets, which he promised to address.
• Curtis’s 13-second video ends with, “One thing missing: a napkin.”
• People who enjoy their food don’t mind ketchup on their face. Kempczinski did.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Why IKEA Struggles in South Korea.

• First, consumption trends have shifted online. There’s no need to go in person to see and buy.
• Second, the prices aren’t cheap. There are many counterfeit IKEA products, and IKEA-style furniture has also increased.
• Third, self-service isn’t a fun element in Korea.
• Fourth, targeting MZ-generation single-person households was a misstep.
• Seo Yong-gu (Sookmyung Women’s University professor) pointed out, “Koreans are all busy and exhausted.”
• The analysis: “How well they build an omnichannel strategy to capture the MZ generation will determine future success or failure.”
• Related Link.

AI Has a 95% Chance of Pressing the Nuclear Button.

• Research findings from King’s College London.
• In 21 simulated tournaments involving GPT 5.2, Claude Sonnet 5, and Gemini 3 Flash, none of the models chose to yield or surrender.
• The AI treated nuclear weapons not as a deterrent but as a coercive tool.
• Lee In-yeol (Chosun Ilbo columnist) remarked, “The result of stripping away human restraint and fear,” adding, “Today’s AI giants are trying to hide their ‘blood-stained hands’ behind the gloves of government decisions.”
• Related Link.
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Samsung Electronics’ TV Market Share: 29%.

• It has led the market for 20 consecutive years, but last year may have been the last.
• According to Counterpoint Research, Samsung held 54% of the premium TV market (over $2,500) and 52% of the mid-premium market (over $1,500) last year, capturing 29% of the total market.
• However, Chinese brands are closing in fast. By December’s shipment volume, they had already caught up: TCL led with 16%, while Samsung Electronics fell to 2nd with 13%.
• Combined, TCL and Hisense hold 25%, while Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics together account for 24%.
• Related Link.
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I Can Tolerate Anything Except Standing Out More Than Me.

• Trump fired Chris Nunn (Secretary of Homeland Security). What’s the deal with replacing the Homeland Security chief during wartime?
• Visiting an El Salvador terrorist prison for a commemorative photo was fine. Even the ICE bloodshed crackdown controversy passed. But he was fired for spending $250 million on TV ads.
• Shin Kwang-young (Dong-A Ilbo columnist) noted, “It might be a case of ‘stealing the boss’s spotlight.’”
• Related Link.

Worth Reading.

How World War I Began.

• Gavrilo Princip (Serbian nationalist) killed Franz Ferdinand (Austro-Hungarian Archduke). The so-called Sarajevo incident.
• The Austro-Hungarian Empire declared war on Serbia, and Germany jumped in. Russia sided with Serbia. Britain and France joined, turning it into a world war.
• Lee Young-chang (Hankook Ilbo columnist) warned, “In 2026 Tehran, I see 1914 Sarajevo.” When a multiethnic state falters, centrifugal forces activate. The Kurds are stirring, Turkey and Pakistan are watching. If Pakistan moves, India moves too. Iran is firing missiles indiscriminately to escalate the conflict.
• The U.S. is the biggest problem. It has no interest in international law and does not fear conflict spreading. Lee Young-chang assessed, “Like 112 years ago, the world of somnambulists has returned.”
• Related Link.

The Time Has Come to Embrace the Ability to Be Uncomfortable.

• “The Discomfort of a Comfortable Society,” a book title by Kumashiro Toru (psychiatrist), but the situation in Korea is no different. There are passengers who report crying children to crew members on trains, an attitude of refusing to let their comfort be infringed.
• Lee Gi-byeong (Hallym University Medical School professor) pointed out, “The right not to be inconvenienced holds more sway than the duty to endure inconvenience.”
• I, too, can endure if I am aware that I might cause discomfort to others. The idea is that a social trust exists: the tolerance limit (受忍限度) will protect me.
• Lee Gi-byeong also noted, “The right to resist excessive discomfort only functions on the foundation of enduring inconvenience within tolerance limits.”
• Related Link.

Is There a Growth Strategy for All?

• There are strategies for large corporations, manufacturing, AI, and exports.
• Yoon Hong-sik (Inha University professor) argues that the global order has fundamentally changed. Thus, growth strategies dependent on past experiences have limitations. Can a country like Korea, with weak welfare and domestic demand, withstand slowing global demand?
• “What is needed now is to reconfigure growth strategies beyond strengthening corporate competitiveness—using robust domestic demand and expanded welfare as leverage to balance exports and domestic consumption,” he emphasized.
• Related Link.

The Law Knows No Good Faith.

• “Only strict enforcement, constant refinement, and relentless oversight can ensure the law operates justly,” the critique asserts.
• Hong Jin-su (Kyunghyang Shinmun Social Affairs Editor) emphasized, “The three judicial reform bills are not easily reversible,” adding, “The task for the National Assembly and judiciary is to establish meticulous safeguards and oversight to prevent the law from being weaponized maliciously.”
• First, detailed procedures must be swiftly established for reopening trials when the Constitutional Court overturns a lower court’s ruling.
• Second, measures must address concerns that expanding the Supreme Court bench could weaken lower courts.
• Third, strict operational standards must be set to prevent abuse of judicial distortion charges or appeals to trials as tools for delaying lawsuits or retaliation.
• Related Link.