U.S.-Iran Draft Agreement.

• Not yet finalized, but the disclosed terms are as follows:
• Open the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days. No tolls will be collected. Mines will be removed.
• The U.S. will also lift all blockades.
• Hezbollah and Israel will pause hostilities for now.
• Nuclear negotiations remain. Beyond halting nuclear weapons development, final talks are underway over conditions for exporting enriched uranium.
• Critics question whether attacking Iran over its nuclear program only to delay it via agreement is contradictory.
• Donald Trump (U.S. President) wrote, “I instructed them not to rush,” adding, “We will not make a bad deal.”
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Leaving Netanyahu Behind.

• “Israel has fallen from an equal partner to a subcontractor of the U.S. military. It’s been pushed from the cockpit to the economy class.”
• The New York Times’ analysis. Though Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Prime Minister) once boasted, “I speak to Trump every day,” speculation arises that Donald Trump (U.S. President)’s stance has shifted.
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“Considering Closure of Sites Like Ilbe.”.

• “Public discussion and practical review seem necessary to allow measures such as shutting down sites that mock and tolerate hate, punitive damages, and fines, similar to Ilbe.”
• Lee Jae-myung (President) wrote this on X.
• Jo Soo-jin (Director of the Roh Moo-hyun Foundation) shared a post claiming, “Young people presumed to be from Ilbe entered the Bongha Village Memorial Hall and took photos making the finger gesture symbolizing Ilbe.”
• Lee Ju-hee (Democratic Party spokesperson) stated, “We will broadly review legislative alternatives, including fines and shutdown measures for platforms that tolerate or promote hate content, as well as penalties and punitive damages for mocking and hate speech.”
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Siren Mug Cup on the 10th Anniversary of the Sewol Ferry Disaster?

• Starbucks faced belated backlash over releasing a “Siren Classic Mug Cup” on April 16, 2024. The siren is a Greek mythological mermaid who shipwrecks vessels.
• It remains unclear whether Starbucks’ logo—originally a siren—has any direct connection to the Sewol Ferry tragedy.
• Lee Jae-myung (President) unleashed strong criticism: “This isn’t just the shameless behavior of a low-quality merchant—it’s the unfilial act of a malicious profiteer.”
• Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party Leader) retorted, “This is a loss of reason. He’s lashing out without proper investigation or context.”
• Oh Se-hoon (Former Seoul Mayor) stated, “While private boycotts and criticism from media or civic groups are free, a president wielding public authority stepping directly into the fray is a completely different matter,” adding, “Wouldn’t it be better to show some restraint now?”
• Related Link.
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What Matters Now.

Comparing Approval Ratings After One Year in Office.

• Moon Jae-in (former president) led with 78%, followed by Lee Jae-myung (President) at 64%.
• Kim Dae-jung (former president) recorded 60%, while Park Geun-hye reached 57%.
• In the third week of May, a Gallup Korea poll showed support for the Democratic Party and People Power Party at 45% and 22%, respectively.
• The president’s approval rating has risen again to 64%.
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The Fate of Chung Chung-rae and Jang Dong-hyeok.

• The Democratic Party is widely expected to win, but the nature of the outcome is what matters.
• Chung Chung-rae (Democratic Party Leader) has notably avoided visiting Daegu even once in May—a strategy to separate the party leadership from candidates as much as possible. Observers speculate that not only does his campaigning fail to help, but it may also aim to draw a line between him and potential election defeat responsibility.
• In Jeollabuk-do, Kim Kwan-young (former Jeollabuk-do Governor), cut off by the party, is running as an independent, creating a pro-Chung and anti-Chung dynamic. A Democratic Party lawmaker interviewed by JoongAng Ilbo said, “The Jeollabuk-do election has become solely Chung Chung-rae’s responsibility.”
• Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party Leader) must prevent Han Dong-hoon (Independent Candidate)’s victory. In a Channel A poll, Han Dong-hoon and Ha Jung-woo (Democratic Party Candidate) are in a tight race at 34.6% and 32.9%, respectively. Park Min-sik (People Power Party Candidate) trails significantly at 20.5%. (The wireless telephone survey has a 95% confidence level with a ±4.4 percentage point margin of error.)
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Will Ulsan Mayor Unity Fall Apart?

• Kim Sang-wook (Democratic Party candidate) and Kim Jong-hoon (Progressive Party candidate) halted a poll conducted under the premise of unification after the Democratic Party claimed, “Organized interference by certain groups is suspected.”
• The Democratic Party maintains, “Unification remains valid—only the poll was suspended,” but the Progressive Party retorts, “No verified evidence has been provided.”
• A KBS poll showed Kim Sang-wook and Kim Doo-gyeom (People Power Party candidate) in a statistical dead heat. If unified behind Kim Sang-wook, he leads; if behind Kim Jong-hoon, the race remains within the margin of error. (Telephone interview survey, ±3.5 percentage points at 95% confidence level.)
• Related Link.
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Park Geun-hye Makes Her Move.

• Visited Daegu’s Chilseong Market with Choo Kyung-ho (People Power Party Daegu mayoral candidate).
• Will visit the birthplace of Yuk Young-soo (Park Chung-hee’s wife) in Okcheon, Chungcheongbuk-do with Kim Young-hwan (People Power Party Chungcheongbuk-do governor candidate).
• Also scheduled to visit Lee Jang-woo’s (People Power Party Daejeon mayoral candidate) campaign office.
• Will Park Geun-hye’s (former president) involvement help? The Hankyoreh noted, “Some view this as provoking backlash from capital region and moderate voters.”
• Yoo Young-ha (People Power Party lawmaker) said, “I’ll likely visit Busan, Ulsan, and Daegu—Chungcheongnam-do is still under discussion.”
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Deep Dive.

Seoul and Busan See Narrowing Gaps.

• Jeong Won-o (Democratic Party Seoul mayoral candidate) leads beyond the margin of error, but the gap with Oh Se-hoon (People Power Party Seoul mayoral candidate) is shrinking.
• In Busan, Jeon Jae-soo (Democratic Party Busan mayoral candidate) maintains a significant lead over Park Hyung-joon (People Power Party Busan mayoral candidate), but the situation remains precarious.
• Daegu and Chungcheongnam-do remain tight within the margin of error.
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Trump Sides with Sanae Takaichi Against Xi’s Criticism.

• Xi Jinping (Chinese President) mentioned Sanae Takaichi (Japanese Prime Minister) and Lai Ching-te (Taiwanese President) during a meeting with Donald Trump (U.S. President), stating, “They are threatening regional peace.”
• Trump reportedly responded that he was not a leader to be criticized by Xi. In fact, after the U.S.-China summit, Trump shared details of the talks with Takaichi during a phone call en route home.
• Shortly after the summit, China deployed around 100 military and coast guard vessels near the First Island Chain—a U.S. containment line and a boundary where Beijing seeks to limit U.S. military access.
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Coal Mine Explosion in Shanxi, China.

• At least 82 people are confirmed dead.
• Among 247 people, 128 are injured, raising the possibility of further fatalities.
• Coal accounted for 51% of China’s energy consumption last year. The country represents 58% of global coal consumption.
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“Correct the National Title.”.

• North Korea defeated Japan to win the AFC Women’s Champions League held in Suwon.
• The players did not smile for the cameras. Upon departure, they showed no reaction to shouts of “See you again.”
• Lee Yu-il (My Hometown coach) responded to a South Korean reporter’s question, “North Korean women’s football has been strong for a long time,” by saying, “Correct the national title. I will not answer that person’s question.” This was a demand to use the official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
• The $1 million prize money may not be paid due to sanctions against North Korea.
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Another Take.

7-Fold Income Gap Between Top and Bottom 20% of Workers.

• Monthly income for the top 20% of working households was 10.51 million won, while the bottom 20% earned 1.46 million won. These figures are based on the fourth-quarter 2023 household trend survey.
• Kang Won-taek (Seoul National University Professor) warned, “If income inequality spirals out of control alongside asset disparities, the legitimacy of the democratic system—built on the premise of equal opportunity—could erode.”
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Ilbe and Freedom of Expression.

• Kyunghyang Shinmun emphasized in an editorial, “Regulating hate speech must be designed to harmonize with the constitutional value of freedom of expression.”
• “Shutting down far-right sites could become a whack-a-mole game where another Ilbe emerges,” the editorial added.
• Lee Yoon-ho (Dongguk University professor) noted, “Excessive sanctions beyond current standards could fuel debates over fairness and neutrality.” “Platforms should first strengthen their self-purification systems, and site shutdowns should be considered only as a last resort,” he argued.
• There are also criticisms that the issue extends beyond freedom of expression. Lim Ji-bong (Sogang University professor) stated, “Platforms that tolerate hate speech related to historical events or disasters—subject to special laws—are inevitably subject to penalties.” He added, “Checks and balances through the judiciary, such as administrative lawsuits or constitutional appeals, can function sufficiently.”
• Seol Dong-hoon (Jeonbuk National University professor) argued, “Legal responses should be strengthened through criminal profit recovery methods.”
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Could Starbucks Controversy Mobilize the “Shy Conservatives”?

• Hankook Ilbo noted, “The Starbucks controversy could become a rallying point for conservative and progressive camps.”
• The analysis suggests the People Power Party may attempt to mobilize shy conservatives by criticizing excessive state intervention.
• In an editorial, Chosun Ilbo stated, “If wrongdoing exists, legal punishment must follow,” but added, “The atmosphere of the entire administration ganging up on a single company feels excessive.”
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SpaceX Eyes a $28.5 Trillion Market.

• Global GDP stands at $111 trillion—SpaceX plans to create a market a quarter of that size.
• Axios called it an “excessively ambitious target.”
• IPO prospectuses are inherently inflated. Uber claimed the ride-sharing market was $5.7 trillion, WeWork claimed the space-sharing market was $1.6 trillion. Reality? Uber’s 2023 revenue was $29.7 billion, WeWork’s 2022 revenue—just before bankruptcy—was $3.25 billion.
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OpenAI Employees’ Stock Windfall.

• OpenAI’s corporate value has reached $852 billion.
• Over 600 employees will receive shares worth $6.6 billion. Some stand to earn up to $30 million.
• Greg Brockman (OpenAI President) holds equity worth $30 billion.
• Meta (Facebook) has offered some employees compensation packages worth $300 million.
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Starbucks Prepaid Cards: 60% Spent Before Refunds.

• As of late last year, prepaid balances totaled 427.5 billion won. Since 2020, Starbucks Korea has earned 40.8 billion won in interest from these funds.
• Starbucks prepaid cards are exempt from Financial Supervisory Service oversight because they can only be used in Starbucks stores.
• The Fair Trade Commission is reviewing system improvements. Easing refunds raises concerns about potential misuse for money laundering.

The Fix.

National Pension Fund Surpasses 1.8 Quadrillion Won.

• Depletion timeline has been pushed to 2083—an effect comparable to last year’s parametric reform.
• Last year’s 18.8% return was notable, but this year’s performance is even stronger. From 1,036 trillion won at the end of 2023, it grew to 1,458 trillion won by year-end, 1,610 trillion won by February, and crossed 1,800 trillion won in May.
• Kim Yong-ha (Soonchunhyang University Professor) noted, “There are limits to predicting depletion based on unrealized gains,” but added, “If the trend continues, extension into the late 2080s is plausible.”
• Related Link.

ICYMI.

No 4% Loans Left.

• KB Kookmin Bank’s mortgage loan rates have surpassed 5% annually at the lower end. The upper end has exceeded 7% annually.
• A 0.25 percentage point increase would add 32 trillion won to household loan interest burdens.
• The surge in market rates reflects heightened inflation concerns following the U.S.-Iran conflict.
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Worth Reading.

Three Keywords to Understanding Ilbe.

• There is no clear way to punish Ilbe’s trolling. This is also where Ilbe’s sense of efficacy stems from.
• First, the pleasure of self-indulgence. Even trolling has its own aesthetic.
• Second, political efficacy over the world. There is no greater sense of efficacy than stopping the world. “His powerlessness, frustration, and sorrow become my pleasure.”
• Third, the pleasure of social presence. Certification challenges build reputation within the group.
• Eom Ki-ho (Chungkang College of Cultural Industries Professor) pointed out, “What they truly desire is a police state where society is replaced by law.” He argued that “legislation and administration are needed to protect and encourage social actions that confront and block discriminatory and hateful behaviors that destroy society.”
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Starbucks Must Be Saved.

• Shin Kyung-ah (Hallym University Professor) proposed, “We must stop actions that make Starbucks more dangerous.” Public anger has exploded over Jung Yong-jin’s (Shinsegae Chairman) deviant behavior.
• Investigation and apologies are necessary, but they alone cannot resolve the issue. “The company must demonstrate its resolve and sincerity by legally pursuing secondary harm and warning politicians,” goes the argument.
• Related Link.

History Is a Foreign Land.

• “Democracy is no longer a word that generates passion.”
• Kim Geon-woo (Senior Secretary at People’s Solidarity for Participatory Democracy) pointed out, “It’s because the spirit of Gwangju hasn’t been sufficiently contextualized to resonate with their lives.” “It’s as if it’s floating around in the language of memorial halls,” he added.
• Kim Geon-woo emphasized, “Sacred things are hard to keep intact—unfortunately, the more taboo they become, the more they’re caricatured or degraded.” The politics of resentment transforms antagonism into the heat of hatred, and when politics permeates it, it becomes an object of fervor and loathing.
• “Memory severed from reality is just the past. As Gwangju becomes harmless, has our political imagination also become impoverished?”
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Shareholder Republic: Is It Sustainable?

• “Lee Jae-myung put” is the latest buzzword in Yeouido these days. A put option is a derivative that protects against stock price declines. The term implies an expectation that the president won’t tolerate falling markets.
• Kwak Jung-soo (Senior Reporter, Hankyoreh) warned, “If investors take excessive risks on the assumption that the government will bail them out, it could inflate market bubbles and endanger the national economy.”
• “The stakeholders surrounding a company include shareholders, workers, suppliers, local communities, and the government. Shareholder profit-seeking gains social legitimacy only when balanced with corporate sustainability, labor rights, and social responsibility. It is not in the public interest for the government and politicians to succumb to excessive ‘shareholder pandering’ or ‘populist shareholder politics.’”
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Bleached Utopia.

• Pushing schools to revive spring outings isn’t enough. Cho Hyun-kyung (Director of the Hankyoreh Economic and Social Research Institute) pointed out, “As long as the obsession with perfectly controlling all risks persists, schools will continue to shrink no matter what safeguards are implemented.”
• It’s about moving toward a society that doesn’t eliminate inconvenience but builds collective resilience to endure and navigate discomfort and risk.
• Tim Harford, in *Messy: The Power of Disorder to Transform Our Lives*, noted, “Sleek, perfect order is a dangerous illusion—and what makes life worthwhile lies in the chaos we strive to eliminate.”
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A Good Presidential Photo.

• Roh Moo-hyun (former president) often joked, “All that remains are photos.”
• The photos from the Lee Jae-myung administration are distinctly different from those of the Yoon Suk-yeol government.
• In photos released by the Blue House, the president is pushed to the margins or captured from behind, while citizens’ expressions are prominently featured. At the scene of the Jeju Air crash at Muan International Airport, the focus was on the debris scattered on the floor.
• Park Seo-kang (Head of Planning Video Department, Hankook Ilbo) assessed, “Presidential photos diverge based on how the president perceives the public and power.”
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