FAFO, Mess Around and Get Hurt.

• Surprisingly, this image appeared on the official White House account. It’s short for “Fuck Around Find Out.” (The photo was taken at Gimhae Airport in Busan last October.)
• Donald Trump (U.S. President) responded to the question “Why does the U.S. intervene in Venezuela?” by saying, “Venezuela isn’t a country you reach by flying 24 hours—it’s our neighborhood,” adding, “We’ll run everything.”
• Potential attacks on Greenland, Panama, Cuba, and Colombia have also been discussed.
• Related Link.

No Interest in Democracy.

• Trump pressured Delcy Rodríguez (Venezuela’s Acting President) harshly, stating, “If you don’t do the right thing, you’ll pay a far greater price than Maduro.”
• Rodríguez, who initially resisted strongly, has since reversed course and agreed to cooperate with the U.S.
• Marco Rubio (U.S. Secretary of State) said, “Venezuela must not become a hub for Iranian, Russian, Chinese, and Cuban intelligence agencies,” adding, “We cannot tolerate the world’s largest oil reserves falling into the hands of America’s enemies.”
• No plans were discussed to transfer power to opposition leaders like Edmund González or María Corina Machado. Observers suggest the strategy is to remove Maduro while establishing a manageable governing system.
• Rubio’s insistence that “elections are premature” signals support for backing Rodríguez for now.
• The Guardian warned, “If Venezuelan armed groups label Rodríguez a traitor and launch an armed struggle, the situation could spiral into uncontrollable chaos.”

Venezuela’s Viceroy?

• Analysis also suggests Rubio could serve as viceroy.
• Rubio’s parents were Cuban exiles who harbor strong antipathy toward socialist regimes.
• Fluent in Spanish, he is also close to Venezuelan opposition leaders.
• The New York Times analyzed, “The collapse of the Cuban regime has long been Rubio’s dream,” adding, “The attack on Venezuela is part of the process.”
• Related Link.

What Matters Now.

Venezuela, Then Greenland?

• Trump said, “The U.S. absolutely needs Greenland.”
• Steven Miller (White House Deputy Chief of Staff)’s wife, Katie Miller (MAGA influencer), also drew attention by posting a Greenland map with the U.S. flag and the caption “SOON.”
• Mette Frederiksen (Danish Prime Minister) pushed back, saying, “Stop the threats.”
• Greenland is Danish territory. It is rich in rare earths, nickel, cobalt, and other critical minerals. Chinese investment is increasing.
• While many analysts believe military action against Denmark is unlikely, there are concerns that Trump’s “Monroe Doctrine 2.0” won’t stop at Venezuela.
• When asked, “Are there military operation plans in Colombia?” he also said, “That sounds fine.”

Xi and Lee Meet Annually.

• They agreed to restore ROK-China relations. Photos of Lee Jae-myung (President) and Xi Jinping (Chinese President) shaking hands dominated front pages of major newspapers.
• Xi said, “Differences should be resolved by considering each other’s core interests and major concerns.”
• Though not explicitly stated, the “major concerns” refer to U.S. pressure, while the shared “core interests” mean defending industrial competitiveness against protectionism. Even acknowledging differences marks significant progress.
• There’s an unspoken mutual understanding. Lee also remarked, “We share a broad intersection of interests.” Xi emphasized, “We must jointly oppose protectionism and practice true multilateralism.”
• Xi stated, “Eighty years ago, our two nations achieved victory against Japanese militarism.” Lee echoed, “We fought together against Japanese aggression.” Japan was their common denominator.
• North Korea was not mentioned.

“Respecting One China.”.

• Although the Taiwan Strait was a sensitive issue, it was navigated smoothly. Lee Jae-myung (President) stated in an interview with CCTV, “Our position on respecting One China remains unchanged.”
• Woo Sung-lak (Director of the National Security Office) said, “We successfully explained that the nuclear-powered submarines are for deterring North Korea.”

“Is the Communication Security Good?” Said About That Xiaomi Phone.

• He took a selfie with the Xiaomi phone gifted by Xi Jinping during last year’s APEC meeting in Gyeongju.
• It’s the Xiaomi 15 Ultra, which Xi reportedly said, “Check if there’s a backdoor or not.”
• A flagship smartphone combining a 14mm ultra-wide, 70mm telephoto, 100mm super-telephoto lens, Leica Summilux optical lenses, and a Sony LYT-900 image sensor. The display is a Korean product.
• Related Link.

“Making the Right Strategic Choice on the Right Side.”.

• Xi Jinping’s words had a hidden edge.
• The Korea Daily analyzed, “‘The right side’ is a warning not to align with the U.S.”
• Jeong Young-o (Korea Daily columnist) noted, “Like neighbors who share meals and clean alleys together but refrain from meddling in each other’s household affairs, South Korea and China should remain cool-headed neighboring countries.”
• Lee Jae-myung (President) has already stated, “Maintaining the logic of ‘aligning with the U.S. while leaning toward China’ is impossible.”
• “It’s time to accept the reality of South Korea’s deepening economic integration with the U.S.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Kim Hyun-ji Did Receive the Petition.

• Kim Hyun-jung (Democratic Party spokesperson) said this.
• “Kim Hyun-ji (received the petition) and passed it to the party office, which then handed it over to the inspection team,” she stated. The claim is that she merely relayed it and bears no responsibility.
• Kim Hyun-jung argued, “What more could a secretary do besides deliver a petition?”
• The petition alleges that Kim Byung-gi (Democratic Party lawmaker) received 10 million and 20 million won respectively from two Dongjak-gu council members in 2020. Park Soo-hyun (Democratic Party spokesperson) dismissed it as “one-sided claims by Lee Soo-jin (former Democratic Party lawmaker).”
• Kim Byung-gi said, “Even if I’m expelled, I won’t leave the party of my own accord.”
• According to JoongAng Ilbo, there are suspicions that police suppressed testimony that Kim Byung-gi intercepted the petition.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

“Jeong Cheong-rae Said, ‘Do You Think I Didn’t Ask?’”.

• This is the claim made by Lee Soo-jin (former Democratic Party lawmaker), who exposed the allegations of nomination fund contributions involving Kim Byung-gi.
• She called Jeong Cheong-rae (then Democratic Party Supreme Council member) to ask why no action had been taken regarding Kim Byung-gi, saying, “As a Supreme Council member, shouldn’t you look into this?”
• According to her, Jeong angrily replied, “Do you think I didn’t ask? What do you want me to do?”
• Kim Young-jin (Democratic Party lawmaker) commented, “Just because you didn’t receive a nomination, you shouldn’t spit in the well you drank from.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Deep Dive.

Park Jeong-eun, Baek Hye-ryeon, Jin Seong-jun, Han Byeong-do.

• The Democratic Party’s floor leader election is a four-way race. As Kim Byeong-gi’s successor, the term lasts only four months.
• All are three-term lawmakers with relatively faint factional colors. Their pledges for stability and damage control are also similar.
• Jin Seong-jun (Democratic Party lawmaker), a proponent of the financial investment income tax, said, “It hurts and saddens me when comments like ‘Are you running just to push for the financial tax?’ appear.”
• “Compared to the earned income tax paid by workers, taxing financial income is truly a privilege,” he argued.
• Related Link.

Lee Hye-hoon’s Wealth Grows by 11.1 Billion Won in a Decade.

• Lee Hye-hoon (Minister of Planning and Budget nominee), facing a confirmation hearing, declared assets of 17.6 billion won.
• Her 2016 declaration was 6.5 billion won. Lee explained, “The increase appears larger because the reporting standard for unlisted stocks changed from par value to assessed value.”
• Semiconductor equipment company KSM shares held by her family total 7.6 billion won. She placed them in a blind trust during her tenure as a lawmaker but reacquired them after leaving office.
• Speculation dominates that the Blue House will push through her appointment, considering the rationale of integrated personnel selection. Kang Hoon-sik (Blue House Chief of Staff) said, “We’ll need to hear her position at the hearing first.”

Khamenei in Danger.

• Anti-government protests continue in Iran, demonstrating against the economic crisis.
• Trump warned, “If Iran kills protesters, the U.S. will intervene,” and posted on Truth Social, “Standing by to deploy.”
• The possibility of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (Iran’s Supreme Leader) being ousted is also being discussed.
• There are observations that he is considering plans to seek asylum in Russia after the abduction of Nicolás Maduro (Venezuelan President).

Another Take.

Chief of Staff Kang: “I Never Received It.”.

• “They had no idea. Truly.” These are words from a recording of a conversation between Kang Seon-woo (Democratic Party lawmaker) and Kim Byung-gi (Democratic Party lawmaker).
• Kang Seon-woo claimed that a staff member received and held 100 million won, but the staff member actually stated, “I received no money.”
• Kim Kyung (Seoul City Council member), who allegedly delivered the 100 million won, departed the country on the 29th of last month.

Unified Bargaining Channel? Neutering the Yellow Envelope Law.

• The Yellow Envelope Law allows subcontract workers to negotiate directly with primary employers. It takes effect in March.
• If a unified bargaining channel is demanded, subcontract workers could be excluded. Critics argue that simplifying the inherently complex, overlapping employment structure between primary and subcontractors is impossible from the start.
• The Ministry of Labor insists on implementing the law first and making adjustments later, while the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU) and others reject the unified channel demand as unworkable.
• Related Link.

What the People Power Party Fears More Than Insurrection.

• The insurrection leadership case has a sentencing hearing on the 9th, and the obstruction of justice case has a first-instance ruling on the 16th.
• From the People Power Party’s perspective, the Yoon Suk-yeol (former president) election law violation case is more significant. If fined over 1 million won, he must return 39.7 billion won.
• They claimed never to have met Jeon Seong-bae (a key figure) with Kim Keon-hee (Yoon Suk-yeol’s wife), but this was untrue. Their denial of introducing a lawyer to Yoon Woo-jin (former Yongsan tax office chief) was also false.
• Coincidentally, this contrasts with Lee Jae-myung (President)’s near-disqualification in last year’s election law violation case. Then, the Democratic Party nearly had to return 43.5 billion won.
• The Supreme Court’s pre-election reversal logic from last year could apply directly to Yoon Suk-yeol.
• A Political Funds Act violation could also invalidate his election if fined over 1 million won. He faces allegations of receiving 274.4 million won worth of opinion polls from Myeong Tae-gyun.
• Related Link.

The Fix.

What If the National Pension Fund Invested in Public Healthcare?

• Joo Eun-seon (Kyunggi University professor) proposed, “Even a 5% social investment from the fund could yield significant effects.”
• South Korea’s public healthcare institution ratio is 5%. The OECD average is 57%, and the U.S. is 23%. In terms of hospital beds, the OECD average is 72%, while South Korea is around 10%.
• The National Pension Service’s welfare investment ratio is less than 0.1%. Joo Eun-seon emphasized, “Social investment by pension funds isn’t about replacing the government’s role but creating a mechanism to ensure the government fulfills its responsibilities.”

“Talfang” Effect: Naver Plus Store Users Up 12%.

• Coupang users decreased by 0.3% to 34.28 million on a monthly basis last month.
• AliExpress and 11th Street also fell by 11% and 7% to 8.81 million and 8.18 million users, respectively.
• Naver Plus Store rose by 12% to 6.44 million users.

ICYMI.

Chinese AI Tigers Eye Hong Kong Listings.

• Zhipu AI plans to raise HK$4.3 billion. Post-listing, its valuation is expected to exceed HK$51 billion. (That’s over 9 trillion won.)
• Minimax is also preparing for its IPO. It aims to raise US$41.9 billion.
• Both companies are growing rapidly but remain unprofitable. Their net losses for the first half of last year were 1.8 billion yuan and 500 million yuan, respectively.
• Related Link.

Semiconductor Titans Lift Kospi to 4,457.5.

• Samsung Electronics hit 138,100 won, SK Hynix also reached 696,000 won.
• Foreign investors drove the rally by net-buying 6.342 trillion won worth of shares over two days.

Did Foreign Reserves Fund the Won’s Defense?

• December foreign reserves fell to $428.1 billion, down $2.6 billion from November.
• Observers speculate that dollars were secured by partially liquidating government and corporate bonds.
• The won-dollar exchange rate dropped from 1,484 won on December 23 to 1,439 won on the 30th.

Japan’s Tuna Economics.

• It’s a rule that if tuna prices exceed 100,000 yen per kilogram at Toyosu Market’s first auction of the year, the Nikkei index rises.
• In fact, the Nikkei index rose in all nine instances compared to the previous year.
• Some interpret this not as mere coincidence but as reflecting such strong positive sentiment that large bets are placed.
• Last year, a 276kg tuna was sold for 207 million yen. This year, a 243kg tuna sold for 510.3 million yen.
• That’s 750,000 yen and 2.1 million yen per kilogram, respectively.
• Last year’s price rose 25%—will this year’s rise even more?

Worth Reading.

Lee Jae-myung’s Statism and Democracy.

• Government-led yet participatory, creating new growth engines. Will Lee Jae-myung’s experiment succeed? Can it catch both rabbits—growth and democracy?
• Lee Sang-heon (ILO Employment Policy Director) forecasted, “South Korea’s situation isn’t bad.”
• The world will fracture and conflict more. Realignments are inevitable. This year especially will clarify the confrontation between the U.S.-centered G20 and the BRICS bloc (China-India-Russia). South Korea is fated to walk a tightrope between the U.S. and China.
• Related Link.

Stake the Party’s Fate on It.

• The nomination reviews for local council and metropolitan council seats are said to almost always accept requests from district representatives or regional chairmen. The temptation for nomination corruption remains strong. The “makgeolli election” (backroom dealmaking) persists.
• Kim Byung-gi (Democratic Party lawmaker) was the powerbroker behind the infamous “non-violent death” nominations during the 2020 general election.
• Park Chan-soo (Hankyoreh senior reporter) emphasized, “While investigations will be handled by police, the party must conduct its own rigorous internal probe.” He warned, “Relying on the president’s approval ratings or benefiting from the People Power Party’s self-destructive actions might bring short-term gains, but losing trust happens in an instant.”
• The Hankook Ilbo also cautioned in an editorial, “Continuing with a complacent response could escalate into a crisis at the government level.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Lee Hye-hoon, the ‘Great Flood’.

• Thought it was a disaster film, but it turned out to be science fiction.
• Eo Soo-woong (Chosun Ilbo editorial writer) commented on Lee Hye-hoon (Minister of Planning and Budget nominee), saying, “I feel a genre betrayal.”
• “The ending for a politician with rock-bottom ratings is obvious. Netflix movies can be turned off, but politics cannot. Politics is an art that must be proven by trust, not box office success.”
• Related Link.

Dangerous World and the Critical Question.

• “Trump’s invasion of Venezuela either marked a return to the pre-WWII order or formalized the start of a more dangerous world.”
• Seo Bok-kyung (Director of the Institute for Possible Futures) pointed out, “It may not matter why Trump invaded Venezuela.”
• “What matters is that we’ve entered an era where no mechanism exists to control a hegemonic power once it decides to attack, for any reason.”
• Related Link.