Today’s Korea-US Summit.

• President Lee Jae-myung is on the brink of a fateful summit. He arrives in the U.S. today to meet Donald Trump (U.S. President) tomorrow (U.S. time, the 24th).
• Wi Sung-rak (Presidential Office National Security Advisor), Kim Yong-beom (Presidential Office Policy Chief), and Kang Hoon-sik (Presidential Office Chief of Staff) are all on deck.
• Wi Sung-rak remarked that “the U.S. stance has become tougher than before,” sparking speculation that behind-the-scenes coordination might be challenging.
• There is a possibility Trump has overturned some agreements, such as those on agricultural products. The Hankyoreh analyzed, “The agendas released by the U.S. are predictable, but each one is formidable.”
• Wi Sung-rak stated, “The main discussion topics are how to stabilize the economic and trade sectors of both countries, how to modernize the Korea-U.S. alliance, and how to pioneer new areas of cooperation.”
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Pressure to Document $350 Billion.

• According to a source interviewed by the JoongAng Ilbo.
• “The level of U.S. pressure is much stronger than expected. The U.S. is determined to secure something concrete regarding investments during the summit.”
• There are claims that Howard Lutnick (U.S. Secretary of Commerce) even mentioned canceling the summit to boost negotiating power.
• Analysis suggests that Cho Hyun (Minister of Foreign Affairs) hurried to the U.S., skipping Japan, due to this context.
• Reuters cited an anonymous U.S. government official, noting, “Trump’s core interest is the burden-sharing issue.”
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All the Unpleasant Words Were Omitted.

• The Yomiuri Shimbun interview was just a preview. In the meeting between Lee Jae-myung (President) and Shigeru Ishiba (Prime Minister of Japan), the issues of Japanese military ‘comfort women’ and forced labor were not key agendas.
• Strengthening cooperation was the keyword. They agreed on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the establishment of permanent peace. Announcing the meeting results in an official document was the first time in 17 years.
• The Citizens’ Group for Forced Mobilization criticized it as “completely ignoring or disregarding historical and legal achievements related to past issues.” The Institute for Korean Historical Studies also criticized it for “ignoring historical justice.”
• Wi Sung-rak said, “It was a discussion on philosophical understanding and basic approach.” This implies that specific issues can be discussed in subsequent meetings.
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Different Angles in the Papers.

• The Hankyoreh headlined with “Burying the Past…”. The Kyunghyang Shinmun also led with “Past Issues Deferred for Pragmatic Diplomacy” on its front page.
• Conservative papers are showing enthusiasm. The JoongAng Ilbo stated, “Choosing Harmony Over Anti-Japan,” and assessed it would positively impact the Korea-U.S. summit. The Chosun Ilbo justified it with “In Front of Unpredictable Trump… Korea and Japan Join Hands.”
• The Maeil Business Newspaper evaluated that “Korea-Japan Relations Enter a New Honeymoon.”
• The Chosun Ilbo editorial expressed hope that “Diplomatic choices prioritizing national interest over support bases will continue.”
• The JoongAng Ilbo assessed that “Not surfacing historical or territorial issues in the first shuttle diplomacy is a smooth start.” A Japanese Foreign Ministry official reportedly called it a “pleasant surprise.”
• The Nihon Keizai Shimbun evaluated that “Lee Jae-myung’s administration’s stance on Japan draws a line from the Moon Jae-in administration.”
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“Lingering Regret,” Hankyoreh’s Ambiguous Tone.

• “Haven’t we conceded too much?” Yet, the tone remains sympathetic, saying it’s hard to erase the regret. The expression is cautious, but the content is grave.
• It pointed out that “if we follow the promises made with Japan, it becomes difficult to secure our own strategic autonomy.”
• The warning that “it leads to a serious misunderstanding that we agreed with Japan’s view that all claims issues were ‘completely and finally resolved'” is not taken lightly.
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What Matters Now.

“Best Position to Prevent Martial Law,” Han Duck-soo Arrest Warrant Requested.

• There are many charges. Aiding insurrection leaders, perjury, falsifying official documents, damaging public records, among others.
• Park Ji-young (Special Prosecutor) emphasized, “The Prime Minister is the highest constitutional body that could have prevented unconstitutional and illegal martial law in advance.”
• Han Duck-soo (former Prime Minister) is accused of not preventing Yoon Seok-yeol’s (then President) declaration of martial law on December 3 last year, and instead recommending a cabinet meeting to give it a legal appearance. He only met the quorum of 11 members without proper deliberation procedures. It was also revealed that he lied despite having received the martial law proclamation in advance.

Whoever Leads the People Power Party, Anti-Impeachment Prevails.

• Kim Moon-soo (former Minister of Employment and Labor) and Jang Dong-hyuk (People Power Party lawmaker) advance to the final round. Both oppose impeachment.
• Ahn Cheol-soo (People Power Party lawmaker) and Cho Kyung-tae (People Power Party lawmaker), who support impeachment, are out.
• Voting by the electoral college and public opinion polls will conclude by the 25th, with the leader announced on the 26th.

Pro-Han Faction Backs Kim Moon-soo?

• Han Dong-hoon (former People Power Party leader) posted on Facebook, calling democracy “the best system to avoid the worst” and urging voters to “avoid the worst in the runoff.”
• This was interpreted as suggesting Jang Dong-hyuk is the worst and that votes should go to Kim Moon-soo, leading to a flood of photos in Han Dong-hoon’s fan cafe showing votes for Kim Moon-soo.
• Jang Dong-hyuk was originally a key figure in the pro-Han faction but split after Yoon Seok-youl’s impeachment.
• Kim Moon-soo responded, saying, “Han Dong-hoon is an asset to our party,” and promised to nominate Han Dong-hoon, not Jeon Han-gil, in next year’s election.
• Kim Moon-soo seems to be absorbing the pro-Han sentiment while the anti-Han sentiment consolidates around Jang Dong-hyuk.
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Where is the People Power Party Headed?

• Seong Han-yong (Senior Reporter at Hankyoreh) predicts, “The People Power Party might remain a TK (Daegu-Gyeongbuk) version of the United Liberal Democrats for a while, playing the role of a perpetual opposition party,” adding, “For its supporters, this scenario is more miserable than a downfall.”
• Kang Jun-man (Professor at Jeonbuk National University) comments, “The song ‘Yoon Again’ sounds not just sad but desperate because those who stake their lives on it or applaud it don’t believe in ‘Yoon Again’ at all.”
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People Power Party Bounces Back to 25%.

• The result of a Gallup Korea poll. It had dropped to 19% before rebounding. The Democratic Party recorded 44%. Lee Jae-myung’s approval rating fell to 56%.
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Deep Dive.

Amendment to Nuclear Agreement: A New Variable.

• Korea imports 100% of its uranium. If it could reprocess spent nuclear fuel, imports and waste could both decrease.
• The current nuclear agreement allows uranium enrichment up to 20% with U.S. prior consent and requires U.S. approval for reprocessing. Strict regulations are in place due to concerns over potential nuclear weapon development.
• The U.S. shows little interest, but for Korea, it could be a bargaining chip.
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Yellow Envelope Act Passed.

• Passed the National Assembly plenary session on the 24th. Takes effect six months after promulgation.
• A bill Yoon Seok-yeol discarded twice.
• Two key points. First, it expands the scope of subcontractor employers. Second, it limits the amount of damages.

The Real Challenge Begins for the Yellow Envelope Act.

• First, clashes over the definition of ’employer’ are inevitable. To uphold the principle that anyone controlling workers’ conditions is an employer, specific criteria must be established.
• Second, the scope of negotiations is contentious, and third, exceeding this scope could still lead to illegal strikes.
• The Hankyoreh pointed out, “There is debate over whether subcontractor unions can negotiate directly with the main contractor or must unify with the main contractor’s union or other subcontractor unions.”
• There is a clash between the argument for unifying negotiation channels between main and subcontractor unions and the argument for ensuring subcontractor unions’ participation in negotiations. The process of passing the Yellow Envelope Act was challenging, but what follows is even more crucial.
• Hwang Yong-yeon (Director of Labor Policy at KEF) argued, “Supplementary legislation should follow, such as allowing replacement workers during strikes or removing criminal penalties for unfair labor practices, to grant employers a right to defense.”
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South Korea: A Land of Paradoxes.

• This is what Kim Yong-beom said about the Yellow Envelope Act.
• “There were even greater concerns with the Multiple Union Act and the Serious Accident Punishment Act, but after passing, new rules emerged, leading to a more mature level.”
• Kim Yong-beom emphasized it as “a law for genuine growth, where primary and subcontractor labor relations coexist, leading to improved corporate productivity.”
• Ha Hyun-ok (JoongAng Ilbo Editorial Writer) noted, “It could go in an ideal direction,” but warned, “The likelihood of that not happening is high.”
• The Korea Times editorial pointed out, “If follow-up actions are not properly executed, concerns from domestic and international economic groups about relocating factories overseas may not just be empty threats.”
• The Kyunghyang Shinmun editorial stated, “This legislation merely codifies the Supreme Court precedent recognizing users exercising substantial decision-making power as negotiation subjects,” and emphasized, “Detailed guidelines and sophisticated manuals must be prepared.”
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Bank of Korea Likely to Hold Rates Steady.

• Lee Chang-yong (Governor of the Bank of Korea) maintains that real estate instability must be approached with caution. Some believe that domestic demand is on a recovery path, making an immediate rate cut unnecessary.
• Seoul’s housing prices have slowed in their rise since the June 27 household loan regulations, but they continue to climb.
• South Korea’s base rate is 2.5%, while the U.S. stands at 4.5%. If the Bank of Korea cuts rates once more, the rate gap with the U.S. would reach a historic high.

Another Take.

Electric Vehicle Exports Plummet.

• Only 8,443 electric vehicles were exported from Korea to the U.S. from January to July this year. That’s an 88% drop from 72,579 units in the same period last year.
• This is because Hyundai and Kia reduced exports and increased local production.
• Hyundai has halted operations at its Ulsan plant’s Line 12, which manufactures electric vehicles.
• Hyundai and Kia have sold a cumulative total of 1.5 million electric vehicles in the U.S.
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The Two Sides of Pragmatism.

• There are three points to consider.
• First, criticism arises that there are only slogans without a clear picture. Park Sang-byeong (political commentator) remarked, “It seems there was no national roadmap from the start.” Cho Gwi-dong (Min Consulting Strategy Director) pointed out, “The ad-hoc measures have reached their limit,” adding, “The government’s direction or goals are unclear.”
• Second, there is also an assessment of weak party control. Yoon Tae-gon (The Moa Political Analysis Director) noted, “The president’s weak grip on policy allows figures like Jeong Cheong-rae (Democratic Party Leader) to stand out more prominently.”
• Third, signs of division among the middle-class 86 generation and existing supporters are emerging. Cho Gwi-dong emphasized, “Something must be done for the existing supporters who are not fond of pragmatism,” noting, “It’s a challenging environment to maintain consistency.”
• There is also analysis suggesting they might be accepting a certain level of approval rating decline. The internal strife within the People Power Party is not a variable. There is speculation they are planning a bigger strategy ahead of next year’s local elections.

Chosun Ilbo Criticizes Jeong Cheong-rae.

• They praise Lee Jae-myung while criticizing Jeong Cheong-rae.
• With the passage of the Yellow Envelope Act and the onset of tax hikes, they remarked, “Jeong Cheong-rae’s actions precede the President’s words.”
• There is no basis. They noted the change in stance from “We won’t control housing prices with taxes” and Kim Yong-beom’s comment, “If problems arise, we can amend the law (Yellow Envelope Act),” criticizing, “The ruling party is leading the charge on anti-business legislation, and the government is keeping pace.”
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Real Estate’s Financialization as a Keyword.

• Chae Sang-wook (CEO of Connected Ground) analyzed, “The trend in real estate policy is shifting from supply-centered to demand-centered.” The financialization of real estate is the keyword.
• First, financial criteria like DSR (Debt Service Ratio) or LTV (Loan-to-Value Ratio) shake the market more than supply-demand dynamics.
• Second, the expansion of the jeonse market was also driven by housing finance.
• Third, there is a growing perception that the housing market and financial market are linked in terms of liquidity. The June 27 measures were also the work of the Financial Services Commission. The Lee Jae-myung administration’s stance is to channel finance from unproductive to productive uses.
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The Fix.

Outsourcing and Migrant Labor Risks.

• Korea’s industrial accident fatality rate is 0.39 per 10,000 people, while the OECD average is 0.29.
• The fatality rate for migrant workers in industrial accidents is more than three times higher than that of Korean workers.
• Lee Yoon-joo (Policy and Society Editor, Kyunghyang Shinmun) pointed out, “There needs to be respect for those who endure the dirtiest and toughest environments.”
• “Just because a job is undesirable doesn’t mean it’s unimportant or inevitably dangerous. When we respect those who do the jobs we don’t want to do, and when the satisfaction and pride of those in dangerous jobs increase, we can say that Korean society has become a bit safer.”
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Fewer Soldiers, Female Conscription?

• South Korea’s standing military force is 450,000. Down from 560,000 in 2019, a decrease of 110,000.
• North Korea’s is 1.28 million.
• Even after raising the active duty determination rate from 70% to 87%, it’s not enough to stop the decline. Divisions and above have decreased from 59 in 2006 to 42.
• Kim Jeong-ha (JoongAng Ilbo Editorial Writer) argued, “We must immediately start discussions on female conscription.”
• Kim Mi-ae (People Power Party Member) proposed an amendment to the Military Service Act to allow women to serve as active-duty soldiers.
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The Post Office as a Welfare Shield.

• There are 3,336 post offices, employing 43,000 people.
• They deliver 10 million pieces of mail daily.
• One million people visit post offices every day.
• The financial assets held by post offices amount to 144 trillion won.
• Lee Chang-won (President of Hansung University) proposed that post offices should serve as the last-mile platform for social services.
• He suggests it could be the “minimum defense mechanism” to combat the decline in quality of life due to the acceleration of regional hollowing.
• There is a ‘welfare registered mail’ system where postal workers check on households in crisis, and a ‘protection registered mail’ system being tested in some areas to visit and assess elderly dementia patients. There’s also the ‘well-being parcel’ to assist socially isolated households.
• Services like collecting expired medications or recycling coffee capsules are also popular.
• Lee Chang-won emphasized, “The post office should be elevated to an independent Postal Agency with its own functions and authority, tasked with comprehensively handling various administrative services for welfare, administration, and environmental policies.”
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1.13 Million Households in Poverty Without Benefits.

• These are households in poverty but ineligible for livelihood benefits.
• This year’s median income is 2.39 million won. Livelihood benefits can be applied for if income is 32% or less of the median. That’s about 920,000 won.
• The Central Living Security Committee, which discusses the median income, does not allow public attendance or release transcripts. It’s often compared to the Minimum Wage Commission.
• Lee Jae-im (activist at the Anti-Poverty Solidarity) stated, “Welfare is not a favor but a fundamental right supporting citizens’ lives,” urging the realization of the median income and ensuring livelihood benefits as a right, not mere charity.
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Manual for Utilizing 130,000 Empty Homes.

• In Uiryeong County, Gyeongnam, 8% of homes are empty. Hampyeong County, Jeonnam, and Uiseong County, Gyeongbuk, follow with 7% and 6%, respectively. Areas with declining populations have many empty homes.
• The Daejeon Sejong Research Institute has released guidelines for utilizing empty homes. They propose upcycling them into care-welfare, residential, community, and tourism-stay types.
• In Chungbuk, purchasing and rebuilding or expanding empty homes in depopulated areas exempts you from acquisition tax.
• The government plans to establish a Rural Empty House Bank. They aim to provide empty house information to private real estate platforms and boost transactions.
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ICYMI.

Less Than Half the Rain.

• Recent six-month rainfall in Gangneung is at 49% of the average level.
• The water level at Obong Reservoir has fallen below 18%. Currently, 50% of households in Gangneung are under water restrictions, which will increase to 75% if the level drops below 15%.
• There are forecasts that summer weather will persist until October this year.
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Meeting a Deceased Son Through a Deathbot.

• It’s the era of Digital Immortality.
• Imagine creating an avatar from your photos and social media posts after you die. It’s already happening.
• In the U.S., an interview with an avatar of a boy killed in a shooting sparked controversy, while a Chinese funeral company offers a service for 50,000 yuan.
• The Atlantic warned, “Our society is racing towards a hastily conceived future,” while The Guardian noted growing concerns over AI’s commercial use, privacy issues, and its impact on mourning.
• Nathan Mladin (author of ‘AI and the Afterlife’) criticized digital necromancy as a deceptive experience. Bereaved families might rely on programs instead of accepting and healing from their grief.
• Na Seong-won (Deputy Editor of Kukmin Ilbo) pointed out the need for legal and ethical discussions on AI control measures.
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1-Ton Truck Delivered Booze to Presidential Office.

• Yoon Suk-yeol has been living in a haze of alcohol since his inauguration. This is according to Monthly JoongAng.
• Before the Hannam-dong residence was completed, he would often hold drinking sessions at the presidential office until midnight instead of going home.
• Japan’s Asahi Shimbun reported a former minister saying, “He frequently mentioned martial law during drinking sessions as early as last April’s general election.” It’s said he drank nearly 20 glasses of somaek (a mix of soju and beer).
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Will Pro Baseball Hit 12 Million Fans This Year?

• As of August 24, it has already surpassed 10.08 million.
• The likelihood of exceeding 10 million fans for two consecutive years is high. Out of 720 games, 133 are still left.
• Samsung Lions lead with 1.34 million fans. Followed by LG Twins and Lotte Giants.
• The competition for rankings is fierce. The gap between 3rd place SSG Landers and 8th place Kia Tigers is 3.5 games. The situation could easily be overturned.
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Worth Reading.

South Korea’s Strategy Amid China’s Peripheral Maneuvers.

• When the U.S. erected a wall against Mexico, China expanded trade with Mexico. The U.S. is waging a tariff war, while China is waiving tariffs for underdeveloped countries, extending its influence. This is the so-called “qinshenghuirong” (친성혜용) discourse: befriend neighbors, show sincerity, offer benefits, and embrace them.
• China’s waiver of tourist visas for South Koreans can be seen as part of this peripheral strategy. It’s a move to exploit the strategic gaps left by the U.S. in its bid to contain China.
• Lee Hee-ok (Professor at Sungkyunkwan University) analyzed, “When considering the China variable in Korea-U.S. relations and the U.S. variable in Korea-China relations as constants, a path for pragmatic diplomacy will emerge.” It’s a call for South Korea to become a co-architect in resolving the Korean Peninsula issue.
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Change and Transition.

• Change refers to phenomena that occur naturally, while transition involves deliberately steering the course of change towards a desired direction. Choi Young-jun (Professor at Yonsei University) noted, “Transition is inherently a painful and uncomfortable process.”
• Lee Jae-myung’s directive to shift from welfare application to automatic payment is no different.
• “The essence of transition is not merely about finding the right answer. It requires the entire administration, politics, and society to deliberate and collaboratively draft the solution. Transition also means departing from familiar norms and methods, enduring immediate discomfort, and changing things one by one.”
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Even in Disappearance, Pathetic.

• It’s about the prosecution, which secured bundles of cash but lost the bands, making it impossible to trace the source.
• Park Yong-hyun (Hankyoreh Editorial Writer) pointed out, “This shows the extreme arrogance born from a prosecution-centered, centralized investigation system, as if saying, ‘Who dares to investigate us?'”
• “Could there be a clearer period marking the prosecution’s final act and the reason it must disappear?”
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