“Housing Prices Are Falling Surprisingly Fast.”.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) said at a State Council meeting, “Seoul apartment listings are rapidly increasing while transaction volumes are rapidly decreasing.”
• Reality? Up for 90 consecutive weeks.
• The Gangnam Three Districts have indeed dropped significantly. Over three months since the August tax reform announcement, Gangnam-gu, Seocho-gu, and Songpa-gu recorded -3.6%, -2.8%, and -0.9%, respectively. A 182㎡ exclusive-use unit in Apgujeong-dong once peaked at 11.2 billion won and has since fallen to 8.8 billion won.
• The remaining 22 districts all rose. Seongbuk-gu, Seodaemun-gu, and Nowon-gu saw the largest increases—5.1%, 5.1%, and 4.3%, respectively.
• Oh Se-hoon (Seoul Mayor) pointed out, “Where exactly did you see signs of a housing price crash?”
• Chang Dong-hyuk (People Power Party Leader) claimed, “What’s fallen surprisingly fast isn’t housing prices—it’s stock prices” and “what’s fallen even more surprisingly is the president’s approval rating.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Indian Rain Dance.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) claimed, “There appears to be a tendency for those who benefit from rising home prices to selectively use only part of the data to push in one direction.”
• The JoongAng Ilbo editorial criticized, “It is regrettable to watch the president, like an Indian performing a rain dance until it rains, clinging to the declining apartment prices in certain areas and claiming the housing market is stabilizing.”
• The Chosun Ilbo editorial argued, “We must first examine the reports reaching the president’s desk.” “This only concerns the Gangnam Three Districts, where purchase demand has halted due to loan regulations,” they noted.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

What Matters Now.

“No Evidence of Shincheonji Secret Alliance.”.

• Kim Min-seok (Democratic Party Leader) raised suspicions during the party convention last August of a secret alliance between anti-Myung, factionalism, and Shincheonji.
• Yesterday, at a closed-door general meeting, Park Seon-won (Democratic Party Representative) was scheduled to present investigation results, but Kim Min-seok abruptly canceled it. He stated, “There was no evidence of a secret alliance” and added, “I deeply apologize to those who were unintentionally harmed.”
• According to Chosun Ilbo, Kim Min-seok choked up and even shed tears.
• Park Seon-won expressed strong dissatisfaction, saying, “We had prepared the report, but an apology was made without consultation. What does that make of those who investigated?”
• Synthesizing multiple media reports, it is likely that while Shincheonji members did join the party, there was no confirmed evidence they aided the pro-Cheong faction.
• As recently as last month, Kim Min-seok claimed, “We confirmed a significant degree of collective membership.” Lee Sung-yoon (Democratic Party Representative) argued, “Since there was no alliance, it’s obvious there’s no evidence.”
• The pro-Cheong faction, led by Jeong Cheong-rae (former Democratic Party Leader), demanded a public apology and accountability.
• In an editorial, Kyunghyang Shinmun questioned, “Can this truly be resolved with an apology alone?”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Will a Blue Tsunami Come?

• U.S. midterm voting has begun. Polls show a Democratic Party landslide. The variable is how many “shy Trump” voters will mobilize.
• Trump called it “the most important midterm election of our lives.”
• Of the 100 Senate seats, 35 are up for grabs—Democrats need at least 17 to secure a majority. Currently, Republicans hold 53 seats and Democrats 47.
• All 435 House seats are being contested.
• Silver Bulletin projects an 80% and 95% chance of Democratic majorities in the Senate and House, respectively. Decision Desk HQ forecasts 64% and 84%.

KOSPI Whiplash.

• Black Monday was avoided, but Black Tuesday arrived. Up 2.2%, then down 3.6%.
• Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell 4.2% and 5.0%, respectively.
• Oracle’s $20 billion fundraising added to market jitters.
• U.S. stocks also lagged yesterday: S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq closed at -0.37%, -0.38%, and +0.83%.
• Brent crude surged after reports of U.S. military strikes on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz.

Deep Dive.

Special Prosecutor Bill for Manipulation Indictment Set as Party Line.

• Kim Seong-hoi (Democratic Party Representative) said, “No lawmaker objected to adopting it as party policy.” The plan is to force it through the Judiciary Committee today and the plenary session tomorrow.
• The special prosecutor’s investigation targets 12 cases, including Daejang-dong, the Ssangbangwool North Korea remittance, and Seongnam FC sponsorship funds. The investigation team will consist of 309 personnel. The authority to drop charges was excluded.
• Jeong Jeom-sik (People Power Party Floor Leader) criticized, “This is an attempt to secretly prosecute the president and his associates.” They will block it with a filibuster, but the Democratic Party+Cho Kuk Innovation Party could halt it after 24 hours.
• Related Link.

Judges Are Seething.

• Cho Gi-dae (Chief Justice)’s state investigation has been postponed for now. A Democratic Party lawmaker argued, “How can we create a front line over Cho Gi-dae unnecessarily?” Pro-impeachment and anti-impeachment factions are clashing.
• Seong Chan-yong (Bucheon Branch of Incheon District Court judge) sparked debate by posting on the court’s internal network, “We must confront unwarranted attacks with dignity.”
• One comment read, “Who can guarantee we won’t crumble like the prosecution?”
• Jeong Wook-do (Seoul Northern District Court chief judge) wrote, “I urge restraint and rationality before this escalates further.” Jeong Wook-do is a judge who previously demanded Cho Gi-dae’s resignation. He criticized, “Using dissatisfaction with individual rulings or attempts to influence them as pretexts to pressure the judiciary is a clear violation of judicial independence.”
• Park Byung-gon (Seoul Southern District Court judge) argued, “We must first examine how the judiciary lost public trust.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

October Inflation at 2.8%, Bolstering Rate Hike Momentum.

• Inflation has risen in the 2% range for two consecutive months.
• Petroleum and processed foods surged, while agricultural and marine products dropped sharply.
• The oil price cap policy had a significant effect. The Ministry of Economy and Finance explained, “The cap reduced the inflation rate by 0.8 percentage points.” Without it, the rate would have reached 3.6%.
• A Bank of Korea official described the situation as “a glass half full,” adding, “The inflation trend is the most critical factor in setting the base rate.”
• Annual growth is likely to exceed 3.6%.
• The Bank of Korea has ample reasons to raise rates, but sluggish domestic demand remains a wildcard. The final Monetary Policy Committee meeting of the year is on November 26th.
• Related Link.

Another Take.

Lee Jae-myung and Won Min-kyung.

• Continuing to keep the reverse discrimination in multiculturalism debate on the agenda.
• Yesterday at the State Council meeting, Lee Jae-myung (President) said, “If benefits without reasonable grounds continue, they could undermine trust in the system and give ammunition to forces inciting hatred against the vulnerable.”
• Won Min-kyung (Minister of Gender Equality and Family) stated, “Invisible discrimination persists,” adding, “Alongside continued support, it would be good if multiple ministries could focus on policies to eliminate this unseen discrimination.”
• Related Link.

“We Understand the Hurt.”.

• Jeon Seong-hwan (Blue House Senior Secretary for Public Communication) said this during a meeting with migrant groups.
• A rally attendee interviewed by Kyunghyang Shinmun said, “The senior secretary’s office told us they could offer a private apology, but a formal presidential apology would only inflame the controversy.”
• Seol Dong-hoon (professor at Jeonbuk National University) said, “This discussion should not shrink existing systems but should address gaps—expanding social security for legally residing foreigners.”
• Yang Kyung-eun (professor at Sogang University) noted, “We must also discuss protections for children of migrant backgrounds excluded from the legal definition of multicultural families.”
• Jeong Hyo-joo (attorney at Migrant Center Friends) said, “The words and references the president uses will shape who our society views as the problem.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

President’s Passport Number Exposed.

• Speculation grows that this was a leak rather than a hack.
• Hwang Seok-jin (Dongguk University professor) said, “It’s more likely due to an insider’s lax security awareness or an occupational error than a hack.”
• A cybersecurity czar will be appointed. The president and first lady have received new passports.
• In an editorial, Chosun Ilbo demanded, “Countermeasures must be prepared with the resolve that ‘the government could collapse.’” The phrase echoes Lee Jae-myung (President)’s remark during the Coupang data leak scandal, when he said, “They should feel like the company could go under.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

The Hot Potato Called the Future Response Fund.

• It amounts to a staggering 162 trillion won.
• A plan is under review to place the Minister of Planning and Budget as chairperson, with an operational review committee of 10–30 members—more than half of whom would be private-sector appointees.
• Kim Woo-cheol (President of the Korean Society of Public Finance) criticized, “It’s unacceptable for the players to also assume the role of referees.”
• Related Link.

3.8% and 4.3%.

• The Future Response Fund’s 162 trillion won includes 103 trillion won entrusted to financial institutions for investment in stocks and bonds, with a minimum target return of 3.8%.
• The government plans to issue 100 trillion won in deficit bonds at a funding rate of 4.25%.
• One side has surplus funds to invest, while the other borrows money—a situation criticized as reverse margin.
• The National Assembly Budget Office proposed using part of the surplus to reduce bond issuance. Cutting 30 trillion won from issuance could save 1.2 trillion won annually in interest, according to estimates.
• Choi Han-soo (Kyungpook National University professor) called it “the result of a ‘strategic judgment’ not to spend all the tax revenue boosted by the semiconductor boom in a single year.” He explained that of the 280 trillion won in excess tax revenue—above trend projections—about 200 trillion won would be saved or used to reduce bond issuance, with plans to utilize it after 2029 when tax revenue is expected to decline.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

The Head of the Corruption Investigation Office’s Perfect Attendance, Though Not Required.

• At last month’s State Council meeting, Lee Jae-myung (President) told Kim Ji-yong (Head of the Corruption Investigation Office), “The office is newly established, with insufficient staff and incomplete facilities—there’s no need to attend unless absolutely necessary. But try to come once a month.”
• Kim attended all three sessions.
• Related Link.

Police Investigation? First, Report to the Corruption Investigation Office.

• The Corruption Investigation Office Act stipulates that police must report to the Office from the moment a crime is detected.
• The Korea Daily criticized, “Cases are incorporated into the Corruption Investigation Office’s procedures before the police can sufficiently verify intelligence,” adding, “This not only restricts the police’s independence and autonomy as an investigative agency but also risks subordinating them as a subordinate organization to the Office in functional terms.”
• A senior police official remarked, “The police collect crime information, and the Corruption Investigation Office selects cases for investigation based on that,” and added, “Especially in cases like corruption and economic crimes, where it’s difficult to clearly determine the criminal charge or scale at the initial intelligence stage, the police’s leeway to independently investigate cases they’ve uncovered themselves diminishes.”
• Related Link.

Oh Se-hoon, Jang Dong-hyeok, and Han Dong-hoon’s Debates.

• They held separate debates at the National Assembly Members’ Hall on the same day. Of the 109 People Power Party lawmakers, 48 attended at least one.
• 38 lawmakers attended the debate hosted by Oh Se-hoon (Seoul Mayor). Jo Jeong-hun (People Power Party lawmaker) said, “Latecomers will have to stand—it’s sold out,” while Shin Dong-wook (People Power Party lawmaker) remarked, “Today feels like a real Super Tuesday.” Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party leader) and Jeong Jeom-sik (People Power Party floor leader) also stopped by.
• Jang Dong-hyeok’s and Han Dong-hoon (independent lawmaker)’s debates drew 10 and 18 attendees, respectively.
• Han Dong-hoon targeted Jang Dong-hyeok, stating, “The party is being run like a ‘private clique’” and proposed legislation for bottom-up candidate nominations.
• One People Power Party lawmaker said, “There’s a cautious atmosphere because it might look like forming factions.” Another added, “Lawmakers are clearly starting to line up.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Yoon’s Election Law Violation Appeal Ruling.

• 1st instance: 1 year 6 months imprisonment, suspended for 3 years.
• Judged that the 2022 election statement denying introduction of a lawyer to Yoon Woo-jin (former Yongsan Tax Office chief) constituted false information.
• If the disqualification is finalized, People Power Party must return 39.7 billion won in election costs. Live broadcast at 2 PM today.
• Related Link.

The Fix.

More Nurses in Care Facilities Reduce Health Insurance Costs.

• Facilities with 30+ residents must have one nurse or nursing assistant per 25 residents. To cut costs, many hire nursing assistants instead of nurses.
• Kwon Jung-hyun (Korea Development Institute researcher) analyzed care facility medical service data and found that a 10 percentage point increase in the proportion of nurses among care staff reduced health insurance treatment costs by 7.7%.
• While hiring more nurses initially raises costs, the analysis suggests reduced outpatient visits and hospital stays could lower overall health insurance spending.
• Kwon Jung-hyun noted, “Care facilities have incentives to hire nursing assistants—who meet staffing standards with lower professional expertise but cheaper labor costs—to reduce employment expenses.”
• Related Link.

Incheon’s 1,000 Won Parcel Experiment.

• It is a service that jointly consolidates parcels for small business owners and utilizes Incheon subway stations as logistics hubs. 72 elderly individuals and 48 career-interrupted women work at the consolidation centers.
• Standard delivery costs 1,000 won, and same-day delivery to the metropolitan area costs 2,000 won. (General parcel companies charge around 3,500 won and 4,400 won, respectively.)
• It began in October 2024 and delivered 3.4 million parcels over two years.
• Park Kwang-geun (Incheon Metropolitan City Bureau of Maritime Affairs and Aviation Director) said, “We will develop this beyond a parcel cost support project into an Incheon-style lifestyle logistics platform that combines low delivery costs with convenient digital logistics infrastructure.”
• Related Link.

100th Anniversary of Hunmangjeongeum’s Release.

• November 4 marks the 100th anniversary of the Korean braille script’s release.
• South Korea still lacks an independent braille library, with the National Library hosting it as a tenant.
• There are five braille education centers nationwide—some visually impaired students travel from Cheorwon, Gangwon Province, to Seoul for lessons.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Even 2035 Targets Won’t Keep the ‘1.5°C’ Promise.

• UNFCCC analysis of 154 countries’ 2035 NDCs found emissions would drop just 6% below 2019 levels by 2035.
• A 60%+ reduction is needed to stay under 1.5°C—but current pledges deliver only one-tenth of that.
• Forty countries didn’t even submit targets. The U.S. exited the Paris Agreement in January.
• South Korea pledged 53–61% cuts by 2035 (vs. 2018). Meeting this would require tripling the reductions achieved over the past six years in the next decade.
• COP31 opens in Türkiye on the 9th.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

ICYMI.

Refrigerators Under Threat.

• France, Belgium, Luxembourg, and others have seen increased malfunctions in remote-control systems for cooling equipment. Some units entered defrost mode, causing temperatures to rise to 50°C.
• Similar incidents occurred at a large U.S. military base supermarket. Cyberattacks are suspected.
• Tom Hegel (SentinelOne Principal Researcher) called it “clear sabotage.” Yoo Sang-yoon (Aim Intelligence CEO) noted, “Hacking costs have dropped so low that even non-experts can do it.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

10,000 Descending to Sejong.

• 9,929 personnel from 44 institutions are slated for relocation.
• 23 institutions (1,831 personnel) relocating immediately next year will lease private buildings.
• Eight institutions—including the Board of Audit and Inspection, Corruption Investigation Office, and National Police Agency (3,629 personnel)—will move into newly constructed government buildings by 2031. The construction will cost 1.6 trillion won.

Uniqlo’s ‘Her Story’.

• Uniqlo is creating a literary magazine for women. Cate Blanchett (actor) will chair the judging panel. The goal is to launch it next autumn.
• According to Samsung Card DataLab, bookstore sales from January to September this year rose 8.5% compared to the same period last year. The declining trend since 2023 has reversed.
• Related Link.

Dinosaur Tail Traces.

• Traces of a dinosaur dragging its tail while moving were discovered along the Taehwa River in Ulsan, dating back 100 million years.
• Far rarer than dinosaur footprints. Only about 50 cases of tail-drag marks have been reported in nine countries worldwide.
• Related Link.

Worth Reading.

Money Exists, but the Will Is Missing.

• Growth rates are strong, yet why is household life in such disarray? Real wage income has declined for two consecutive quarters.
• Manufacturing employment fell by 100,000 in the second quarter, and youth employment dropped by 150,000.
• Lee Sang-min (Researcher at the Korea Economic Research Institute) pointed out, “The state has abundant funds, but there is a lack of will to use them to address polarization.” Lee emphasized three priorities:
• First, livelihood benefits to secure basic subsistence for the poorest households;
• Second, earned income credits for near-poor households whose earnings remain low despite work;
• Third, integrated care systems enabling the sick to receive treatment at home.
• Related Link.

Should Cho Hee-dae Be Impeached?

• Cho Hee-dae (Chief Justice)’s term ends next June anyway. Whether it’s a state investigation or impeachment, it will likely create a victim narrative and deepen an unbridgeable conflict between the Lee Jae-myung government and the judiciary.
• Lee Hyeon-sang (JoongAng Ilbo columnist) warned, “If the narrative of a judiciary ‘under political pressure’ solidifies, even a successor chief justice will have limited maneuvering room.”
• If a successor overturns Cho’s decisions? They’d inevitably face accusations of yielding to political pressure.
• Impeachment could be pushed through, but analysts suggest it would likely backfire as a self-inflicted political own-goal, sparking immense chaos.
• Related Link.

The Blessing and Curse of the 1% Rule.

• The Hankook Ilbo analyzed major political YouTube channels and found that 1.6% of chat participants accounted for half of all comments. “This is essentially a ‘tribalist’ world, thoroughly isolated from the outside,” the analysis concluded.
• Kang Jun-man (Professor at Jeonbuk National University) noted, “The initial 1% of public opinion often gets amplified by legacy media and elevated to mainstream sentiment.”
• “What we’re witnessing now is the ‘boomerang of fandom politics.’ Lee Jae-myung rose to the presidency through fandom politics, but now faces a challenge from a slightly different breed of fandom politics. When it comes to fandom politics and YouTube incitement, Yoo Si-min and Kim Eo-jun are no less adept than Lee Jae-myung—they’re simply running their own tribalist business.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Navigating Two Washingtons.

• If the Democratic Party secures a landslide in the U.S. midterm elections, the negotiation framework between South Korea and the U.S. becomes more complicated.
• Lee Tae-gyu (Head of Contents Bureau, Hankook Ilbo) predicted, “We’ll face two bills: pressure from the Trump administration and oversight from a Democratic Congress.” Lee stressed, “To deal with two Washingtons, we must consistently present our negotiation principles.” The reality? The People Power Party is dragging its feet, while the Democratic Party is already embroiled in internal conflict over primary nominations.
• Yoon Chang-soo (Seoul Shinmun senior reporter) warned, “The burden of the $350 billion investment in the U.S. promised by the Lee Jae-myung government is likely to intensify after the midterms.” Even the nuclear submarine deal could fall through.
• “Will tightening our seatbelts alone help us navigate this?”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.