Woo Won-shik’s Tears.

• A constitutional revision after 39 years has collapsed.
• The People Power Party (PPP) abandoned the motion after signaling a filibuster. Woo Won-shik (National Assembly Speaker) said, “I feel further proceedings are futile” and “will not advance the constitutional revision bill.”
• Song Un-seok (PPP floor leader) claimed, “Tabling a defeated bill itself violates the principle of one matter per session, leaving us no choice but to filibuster.”
• Woo Won-shik sharply criticized, “The PPP are criminals of history.”
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What Matters Now.

“Not at All to My Liking.”.

• Iran’s response to the U.S.-drafted proposal has arrived.
• Trump posted in all caps on Truth Social: “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!” (전혀 받아들일 수 없다), withholding specifics.
• A state neither war nor peace persists.
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Korean Cargo Ship Confirmed Hit by Drone.

• HMM’s Namu-1 preliminary investigation results are in. CCTV captured two flying objects colliding with the vessel.
• A 7m x 5m hole appeared in the ballast tank, and the engine room floor was breached, causing a fire.
• While an Iranian attack is likely, South Korea’s Foreign Ministry maintains, “We will not jump to conclusions.” The Iranian Embassy stated, “We categorically deny any involvement of Iranian forces.”
• Sung Il-jong (People Power Party lawmaker) criticized, “What will the president do now, after vowing that anyone who harms Koreans would face ruin?”
• Related Link.

Heavy Tax on Multiple Home Sales Begins.

• Owners selling multiple homes now pay an additional 30 percentage points on top of the base rate of 6–45%. The effective maximum tax rate rises to 82.5%.
• Originally set to launch in 2021, the Yoon Suk-yeol administration delayed it, postponing it year by year. President Lee Jae-myung declared no further postponement, and the grace period ended yesterday (10th).
• Selling a home bought for 1.5 billion won six years ago at 2.5 billion won incurs 330 million won in capital gains tax for a single-homeowner. For two-homeowners, it jumps to 570 million won, and 690 million won for three-or-more homeowners.

What If Listings Freeze?

• Transactions continued until the 9th, the last day of the tax grace period. The issue begins today.
• Koo Yoon-cheol (Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs) claimed, “While there are concerns about a potential listing freeze, the government’s policy resolve differs from the past.”
• Ham Young-jin (Head of Woori Bank Real Estate Research Lab) forecasted, “A temporary lull in transactions is inevitable for the time being,” adding, “Prices will likely stabilize or rise.”
• In an editorial, The Hankyoreh pointed out, “Even if the government implements policies with ‘good intentions,’ excessive side effects inevitably weaken momentum.”
• The argument is that increasing supply and presenting a roadmap for tax reforms—including stronger holding taxes—will enhance market predictability.
• Seo Jin-hyeong (Kwangwoon University professor) stated, “Rather than directly raising tax rates, the government is more likely to indirectly increase holding taxes by reducing deduction benefits or adjusting the fair market value ratio.”
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Not Like the Moon Jae-in Era.

• Chosun Ilbo analyzed, “Those who wanted to sell have already sold.” “With even urgent listings disappearing, a transaction cliff appears imminent,” according to their analysis.
• The Hankyoreh analyzed, “There is an atmosphere of anticipation for additional listings.”
• Authorities are reviewing a plan to reduce the long-term holding special deduction (Jangteukgongje).
• They may also reduce tax reductions for rental business operators.
• Kim Yun-deok (Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) emphasized, “We are pushing for fundamental institutional reforms under the urgent recognition that the future and integration cannot be guaranteed without dismantling barriers between income and regional classes.”
• Related Link.
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“The Saemaul Movement Must Be Included Too.”.

• Song Eun-seok (People Power Party floor leader) stated, “We do not oppose including the Buma Uprising and the May 18 Democratic Uprising in the constitutional preamble,” but added, “The preamble must be balanced under an integrated historical perspective,” insisting, “Regarding the founding of the nation, it should be included in the constitution, and the Saemaul Movement, modernization, and related matters must all be incorporated.”
• The Kyunghyang Shinmun editorial criticized, “This is no different from saying, ‘Do not amend the constitution.’”
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Deep Dive.

“Surviving Three Threats of Murder.”.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) wrote this on X.
• “From the judicial murder via prosecutors’ fabricated indictments, the knife murder by terrorists, and the honor murder via manipulated media—the three grave threats of murder, the people, the heavens, saved me, so my life now wholly belongs to the people.”
• As the process of his helicopter transfer to Seoul after the January 2024 Busan attack was reviewed, evidence emerged of undue intervention by the Anti-Corruption and Civil Rights Commission.
• By sharing this article, Lee Jae-myung revived the keyword “judicial murder.” It may signal his intent to confront head-on the controversy over dropping charges, which has emerged as an election issue.
• Yoo Seung-chan (CEO of Story.Dot) noted, “Reviving the president’s judicial risks, which were fading, is not desirable for the Democratic Party,” adding, “The Democratic Party benefits most from local elections without contentious issues, and creating issues could give conservatives a reason to rally.”
• In an editorial, The Korea Times criticized, “The prosecution should have clearly stated that dropping charges is not an option, but this post was like pouring oil on the fire,” calling it “inappropriate.” The editorial emphasized, “The authority and power entrusted by the people must be used not for oneself but solely for the greater good.”
• Related Link.
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Party Support Rates and Decoupling.

• Jeon Jae-soo (Democratic Party Busan mayoral candidate) and Kim Boo-kyum (Democratic Party Daegu mayoral candidate), among others, are polling higher than the party’s support rate.
• Oh Se-hoon (Seoul mayoral candidate) trails Jeong Won-o (Democratic Party Seoul mayoral candidate) but maintains a support rate higher than his party’s.
• Lee Joon-han (Incheon University professor) analyzed, “As party influence weakens and the competitiveness of individual candidates gains prominence, a decoupling of support rates is occurring.”
• Lee Sun-woo (Jeonbuk National University professor) noted, “Given that this is an election in the second year of the administration, it inevitably becomes a president-centric election.”
• Related Link.

Lim Seong-geun Sentenced to Three Years in Prison.

• Lim Seong-geun (former Marine Corps division commander), responsible for the death of Corporal Chae, was sentenced to three years in prison by the court.
• He ordered searches without safety equipment while focusing on media exposure, such as instructing that red T-shirts be made highly visible.
• The court stated, “The search would have proceeded normally had Lim not intervened,” and criticized, “He was preoccupied with evading or concealing responsibility.”

10% Global Tariff Deemed Illegal.

• The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled the 10% global tariff illegal.
• After the February ruling that reciprocal tariffs were unlawful, the administration invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act to impose global tariffs—but this too has been deemed illegal.
• Since the measure’s deadline is July 24, no immediate changes will occur.
• Trump has many cards left. He could invoke Section 301 of the Trade Act or Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.
• Related Link.

Yeongnam Bloodshed Decides Jang Dong-hyeok’s Fate.

• The Democratic Party had projected victories in four Yeongnam regions excluding Gyeongbuk, but forecasts suggest the margins are narrowing.
• From Jang Dong-hyeok’s (People Power Party leader) perspective, simply blocking a ruling party sweep provides sufficient justification to endure.
• The Korea Daily assessed, “Even if the Democratic Party wins all eleven other regions, failing to secure three in Yeongnam makes declaring victory difficult.” “A lost election if Yeongnam is lost,” as the saying goes.
• For Jeong Chae-rae (Democratic Party leader), success in the “eastern advance” is a prerequisite for re-election.
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America’s 5B vs. China’s 3T.

• A weakened Trump and a strengthened Xi Jinping (Chinese President) meet.
• Arrives in Beijing on the 13th for a three-day, two-night schedule.
• The New York Times summarized the U.S.-China summit agenda as 5B and 3T.
• Boeing aircraft, U.S. beef and soybean imports, and investment and trade committees are American demands.
• China is likely to raise tariffs, technology, and Taiwan as key issues.
• Related Link.

China’s $1 Trillion Investment in America.

• Trump is likely to attempt a public relations pivot by attracting Chinese capital.
• Observations suggest negotiations for a $1 trillion investment are underway.
• Oren Cass (American Compass Chief Economist) believes Trump views the issue with China as a bad deal—and that bad deals can be turned into good ones.
• Cass warned, “It would be a disaster undermining security and supply chain resilience.” “Inviting the world’s most dangerous predator,” as he put it.
• Related Link.

Another Take.

80% of Violent Crime Victims Are Women.

• It marks the 10th anniversary of the Gangnam Station murder case.
• The Hankyoreh pointed out, “The pattern of measures emerging only after victims’ deaths has repeated for a decade.”
• Women’s groups insist that “female-hatred crimes” must be clearly categorized and their realities assessed.
• Last week, a high school student was murdered in Gwangju. The student council of a local high school issued a joint statement, emphasizing, “Society must provide clear answers in the face of innocent students’ sacrifices.”
• Related Link.

Adoption’s Golden Time Slipping Away.

• Today is Adoption Day.
• The state pledged responsibility last July.
• It decided to transition to a public adoption system, with the government handling adoption reviews and placement procedures.
• Yet as of April 28, 664 out of 691 adoption applications remain pending. Only one adoption has been finalized.
• The golden time for attachment formation is said to be 12 months, yet there are demands to extend the eligibility review process to 24 or even 36 months.
• Most applicants are still stuck in the paperwork phase.
• Related Link.

UK Reform Party Storms Ahead.

• In the UK local elections, a right-wing party with just two seats swept 1,454. An unexpectedly crushing victory.
• Nigel Farage (Reform UK Leader) is the populist politician who spearheaded Brexit.
• The Labour Party shrank from 2,564 to 1,968 seats. The Conservatives also fell from 1,364 to 801 seats.

One in Ten Prosecutors Apply to Become Judges.

• Current prosecutors applying for judicial positions have surged to over 230—10% of the total 2,292 prosecutor slots.
• Last year, 48 prosecutors applied, with 32 passing. This year’s numbers mark a fourfold increase.
• Analysts suggest the exodus from the prosecution is accelerating as the Supreme Prosecutors’ Office is set to dissolve and transition to a public prosecution service in October.
• A prosecutor interviewed by Chosun Ilbo remarked, “Many say, ‘Why stay in a prosecution office that’s about to close when the courts are a better option?’”

ICYMI.

Tesla Outpaces Kia in EV Sales.

• Tesla sold 13,190 units in April alone. Kia sold 11,683.
• Over 90% of Teslas sold in Korea are imported from China. The FSD (Full Self-Driving) feature remains unavailable.
• BYD’s cumulative sales surpassing 10,000 units within 11 months of entering the Korean market is also noteworthy.

Digital Monthly Rent, Token Big Bang.

• Global weekly token usage surpassed 5 trillion in September last year, up from 100 billion in August 2024, then 10 trillion in February, and 27 trillion in March.
• According to the Korea Information and Communications Policy Research Institute, 32% of respondents used generative AI, with 13% of those paying for it.
• The Hankyoreh analyzed, “Like housing and telecom costs, it is highly likely to become a fixed living expense as digital monthly rent.” The analysis attributes the surge in token usage to the AI industry’s shift from learning to inference and the advent of the agentic AI era.

What’s the Cost of War?

• Pete Hegseth (U.S. Secretary of Defense) claimed $25 billion has been spent so far.
• Justin Wolfers (University of Michigan Professor) calculates differently. Next year’s defense budget alone will increase by $600 billion to $1.5 trillion.
• If growth falls by 0.5 percentage points, income losses could reach $400 billion—Goldman Sachs warned this might double.
• Linda Bilmes (Harvard Professor) also projected war costs could reach $1 trillion.
• Related Link.
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Worth Reading.

Politics Must Be Restored Before Constitutional Reform.

• Seong Han-yong (Senior Reporter, Hankyoreh) noted, “Lee Jae-myung (President) and Woo Won-shik (National Assembly Speaker) also bear responsibility for the constitutional reform’s failure.”
• The People Power Party’s control of the constitutional amendment blockade is a reality.
• Demands by Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party Leader) and others to renounce multi-term eligibility should have been generously accepted to secure consensus—since term extensions or revisions would not apply to the incumbent president anyway.
• Realistically, Seong Han-yong judges that constitutional reform has already failed in the 22nd National Assembly.
• “Constitutional reform is a product of high-level political dialogue and compromise,” he said, “and can only be achieved if the president and potential future presidential candidates from ruling and opposition parties agree.”
• Related Link.

Discard Prosecution Investigation Records.

• Lee Yong-hoon (former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court) said this 20 years ago. Though trial-centered proceedings are now established, it was a radical claim at the time.
• Ryu Young-jae (Uijeongbu District Court Judge) remarked, “Investigation records are never so neat and tidy when conducting a trial,” yet admitted, “Overcoming that satisfaction and expanding courtroom debate sometimes reveals different perspectives.” The point is that reviewing documents versus direct questioning are fundamentally different.
• Ryu emphasized, “This isn’t to say investigators are malicious manipulators, but that—as humans—they inherently collect evidence and build logic aligning with their initial hypothesis about a case.”
• “The system must be designed so that the entity deciding charges and maintaining prosecution can directly confront the case,” he concluded.

Trust Only What You Can Trust.

• Landline and mobile phone surveys target different populations from the start.
• Moreover, only a fraction of people who receive a poll call actually complete it.
• Kang Hyung-chul (Professor, Sookmyung Women’s University) compared it to “checking a fever by touching a forehead when there’s no thermometer—we try to gauge public opinion through imperfect surveys.”
• There are a few guidelines:
• Articles claiming a 1% point rise or fall are best ignored.
• The same applies to coverage about leading or trailing within the margin of error. A 2% point gap in a poll with a 3% margin of error is hardly significant.
• Consulting meta-analyses like Kyunghyang Shinmun’s Poll Trends or MBC’s Poll M is the most reliable way to spot broader trends.
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