Last-Minute Reversal for Oh Se-hoon vs. Jeong Won-o?

• As of 7:40 AM, Oh Se-hoon (People Power Party candidate) leads by 11,727 votes. The vote count is 95.1% complete.
• Songpa District’s count remains at 69.0%, leaving room for more votes for Oh. The district extended voting due to ballot shortages. Whichever candidate wins, massive confusion is inevitable.

Democrats’ Deflating Landslide.

• Of 16 metropolitan-level positions, the Democratic Party secured 12. The People Power Party held onto Daegu, North Gyeongsang, and South Gyeongsang.
• As of 7:20 AM, Seoul remains too close to call between Jeong Won-o (Democratic Party candidate) and Oh Se-hoon (People Power Party candidate), requiring further observation.
• For 227 local council seats, the Democratic Party won 123, the People Power Party 91. The Reform Party holds 2.
• In 14 by-elections, the People Power Party secured 4 seats—5 including Han Dong-hoon (former People Power Party leader), who ran as an independent. In Pyeongtaek, Yoo Ui-dong (People Power Party candidate) defeated Cho Guk (Reform Party candidate) and Kim Yong-nam (Democratic Party candidate).
• Though a dominant victory, the Democratic Party’s failure to claim Daegu and South Gyeongsang leaves lingering regret. If Seoul were to slip away, the election’s significance would shift entirely.

What Matters Now.

Strong Support, a Warning for the People Power Party.

• The public’s message was clear: such a People Power Party cannot be supported.
• This morning’s JoongAng Ilbo headline reads, “Seizing Power Even at the Local Level.” It assesses, “The Lee Jae-myung government has gained clear momentum for governance.”
• Chosun Ilbo echoed the same framing: “Stability narratives backed by stock market records resonated.” It forecasts, “Issues delayed due to public backlash—like prosecution reform and case dismissals—will now see aggressive push.”
• KyeongHyang Shinmun’s front-page headline: “Regaining Local Power After Four Years.”
• The Hankyoreh’s tone differs slightly: “Public Sentiment Empowers Lee Jae-myung.”
• The Korea Herald criticized, “A Reprimand for Conservatives Without Reflection or Renewal.”

High Turnout in Battlegrounds.

• In 2018, turnout was 50.9%; this year, it rose to 61.0%.
• Daegu’s 64.2% turnout—a 21 percentage-point jump from four years ago—stands out.
• Seoul’s high-turnout districts included Seocho (66.3%), Gangdong (65.8%), and Songpa (65.8%).

Kim Boo-kyum’s Tears.

• He lost but fought well. Though failing again in his fifth attempt, the meaning is significant. Final vote shares: Kim Boo-kyum (former Prime Minister) 45.1%, Choo Kyung-ho (former People Power Party floor leader) 53.9%.
• His concession remarks: “This is Kim Boo-kyum’s personal defeat, not the citizens’ defeat. Let us not be disheartened.”

Oh Se-hoon’s Fifth Challenge.

• Elected four times as a metropolitan mayor eligible for three terms. In 2006, he defeated Kang Kum-sil (former Minister of Justice), and in 2010, he overcame Han Myeong-sook (former Democratic Party leader) to secure a second term. After resigning amid the free school meal controversy, Park Won-soon (then head of the Hope Institute) won the by-election and achieved a third term.
• Following Park Won-soon’s suicide amid a sexual harassment scandal, Oh Se-hoon was re-elected in the 2021 by-election and won a second consecutive term in 2022.
• The gap is narrowing sharply in the final count.
• In the 2010 election, a late surge in Gangnam’s three districts flipped the result. The margin between Oh Se-hoon and Han Myeong-sook was 26,412 votes, finalized only after 9:00 AM.

Sweeping Seoul District Offices? Not Quite.

• Early counting sparked speculation that the Democratic Party might sweep all Seoul district offices. However, People Power Party candidates emerged victorious in at least six districts: Jung-gu, Yongsan-gu, Gwangjin-gu, Yangcheon-gu, Seocho-gu, and Gangnam-gu.
• As of 7:50 AM, counting remains ongoing in Songpa-gu and others, leaving room for further changes.

Rebellion Quashed, Jeong Chyeong-rae’s Reelection in Sight.

• Kim Kwan-young (former Jeonbuk Governor) caused a storm as an independent, but Lee Won-taek (Democratic Party candidate) defeated him. Kyunghyang Shinmun assessed, “The rebellion was suppressed.” It was evaluated as a proxy war between pro-Jeong and anti-Jeong factions, and it bolstered the pro-Jeong side. Chosun Ilbo assessed, “A green light has turned on for Jeong Chyeong-rae’s reelection.”
• Jeonbuk had significant noise during the nomination process. Kim Kwan-young was expelled over an envelope-of-money scandal, and Lee Won-taek also faced controversy over covering meal costs.

First Woman Elected as Provincial Head.

• Choo Mi-ae (former Democratic Party leader), nicknamed “Joan of Arc,” was elected Gyeonggi Province governor.
• Park Chan-dae (former Democratic Party floor leader), a key pro-Moon figure, won the Incheon mayoral race.
• Min Hyung-bae (former Democratic Party lawmaker) won the Jeonnam-Gwangju Special Self-Governing City mayoral race with overwhelming support—no surprises.
• Kim Sang-wook (former Democratic Party lawmaker), who switched from People Power Party to Democratic Party and ran for Ulsan mayor, also won. The unified candidacy with the Progressive Party played a significant role.

Kim Nam-guk Returns.

• Lee Gwang-jae (former National Assembly Secretary-General) was originally considered for Gangwon Governor but yielded to Woo Sang-ho (former Blue House Political Affairs Secretary) and won nomination in Hanam.
• Kim Nam-guk (former Blue House Secretary) also makes a comeback. Kim, a core member of the pro-Moon “Group of Seven,” left the Democratic Party amid controversy over virtual asset trading and failed to secure a nomination in the last general election. After serving as a Blue House secretary, he resigned over personnel lobbying allegations. He won nomination in Ansan-gap and was elected.
• Song Young-gil (former Democratic Party leader)’s return also drew attention. Arrested over allegations of distributing cash envelopes, he ran from prison as the Pine Tree Party’s candidate during the last presidential election. After a tumultuous acquittal, he was reinstated in the party and won election in Incheon Yeonsu-gap.
• Incheon Gyeyang-gap was originally Song’s constituency. When Song ran for Seoul mayor in 2022, the seat was passed to Lee Jae-myung (then failed presidential candidate). After Lee became president, Kim Nam-jun (former Blue House Spokesperson) was nominated for the vacant seat and easily won.
• Observers speculate that Kim Nam-guk, Kim Nam-jun, and others will strengthen the pro-Moon faction in the National Assembly.
• Lee Jin-suk (former Chair of the Korea Communications Commission), who aimed for Daegu mayor, ran in the Daegu Dalseong by-election and won.
• Kim Tae-gyu (former Vice Chair of the Korea Communications Commission), who ran in Ulsan Nam-gap, staged a late comeback and won.

Exit Polls vs. Actual Counts.

• Broadcast networks’ exit polls captured the broad trend but critically failed to predict outcomes in Seoul and Daegu mayoral races.
• They projected a tight race in Daegu but the margin was unexpectedly wide; in Seoul, they predicted Jung Won-o would lead but it turned into a dead heat.
• Both Seoul and Daegu saw high People Power Party support among men in their 20s.

Deep Dive.

Han Dong-hoon Defeats “HaGPT.”.

• Busan Buk-gap, the hottest race, saw Han Dong-hoon (independent candidate) and Ha Jeong-woo (Democratic Party candidate) secure 43.0% and 41.3% respectively—a mere 1,382-vote margin.
• Han Dong-hoon said, “I thank the great citizens of Busan Buk-gu for pushing me to rebuild conservatism.”
• When asked, “Will you rejoin the People Power Party?” he replied, “I promised I would return, and I will keep that promise.”
• There were many predictions that if Han Dong-hoon returned, Jang Dong-hyeok would not survive. The fact that Han and Park Min-sik (People Power Party candidate) never unified until the end reflected the party’s strong will, but Han’s self-reliant survival was significant.

Progressives Dominate Superintendent Races.

• 12 out of 16 superintendents are progressive-leaning.
• All regions except Sejong, Daegu, Chungcheongbuk, and Gyeongsangbuk are progressive-leaning.
• Among 10 incumbents, all 4 progressive-leaning ones retained their seats, while only 3 of 6 conservative-leaning ones survived.
• Kyeongyang Sinmun assessed, “An election where politics overshadowed education.”
• Criticism was widespread that the contest had devolved into a political battle, devoid of substantive policy or philosophical debate.

Jeon Jae-soo Returns as Busan Mayor, Discarding Ministerial Post.

• Jeon Jae-soo (former Minister of Oceans and Fisheries) resigned amid controversy over alleged receipt of funds from the Unification Church.
• The prosecution dismissed the case due to insufficient evidence and expired statute of limitations.
• Jeon Jae-soo and Park Hyung-jun (former Busan mayor) secured 50.1% and 47.9% of the final vote share, respectively.
• Jeon was renowned for strong local constituency management, yet his former district, Busan Buk-gap, shifted to Han Dong-hoon.

Yoo Ui-dong Reaps Dividends from Kim Yong-nam vs. Cho Kuk Clash.

• Cho Kuk (leader of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party) came in third.
• Polls had shown a tight race between Kim Yong-nam (Democratic Party candidate) and Cho Kuk for the Gyeonggi Pyeongtaek by-election.
• But the final results revealed a razor-thin margin.
• Final vote shares: Yoo Ui-dong 34.6%, Kim Yong-nam 28.9%, Cho Kuk 27.4%.

Another Take.

Unprecedented Ballot Shortage Crisis.

• Polling stations with ballot shortages included 8 in Songpa-gu, 2 in Gangnam-gu, 1 in Gwangjin-gu, and 1 in Dongjak-gu—14 in total.
• Jamsil 7-dong 2nd Polling Station in Songpa-gu distributed wait numbers and extended voting until 10:00 PM.
• Cho Jin-man (Duksung Women’s University professor) stated, “A clear investigation must be conducted at a level acceptable to voters.”
• Related Link.

Only 50% of Ballots Printed in Songpa-gu.

• Heo Chul-hoon (National Election Commission Secretary-General) held a briefing and said, “We have caused great confusion and concern for the public.”
• A Cheong Wa Dae official stated, “This is an issue for the NEC to handle.” In fact, it is correct that the NEC should make the judgment.
• Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party leader) held a press conference and claimed, “The Seoul election is a tainted election” and “The election must be held again.”
• Cho Seung-rae (Democratic Party campaign chief) said, “Regardless of the outcome, this is a matter that must be investigated and held accountable,” but dismissed the People Power Party’s call for a revote as “not worth a moment’s consideration.”

“Ballot Shortage Not Grounds for Re-election.”.

• NEC began a meeting around midnight and issued its stance at 4 AM today.
• “The shortage of ballots at some polling stations does not constitute grounds for postponement or re-election under the Public Official Election Act,” was the conclusion.

Can Voting Proceed During Vote Counting?

• Chosun Ilbo criticized in an editorial, “This cannot be called a normal election.”
• “Isn’t it common sense to prepare ballots assuming all voters will cast their votes? Are we still at this level? Even as this serious situation unfolded, citizens learned about it first through social media like KakaoTalk, not via the election commission. Could the commission have intentionally concealed it?”
• In 2021, Berlin, Germany, faced a similar ballot shortage controversy, and its constitutional court ordered a full re-election.
• Chosun Ilbo asked rhetorically, “What do you think would have happened if this had occurred in a Democratic Party-dominated area?”
• The Hankook Ilbo noted in an editorial, “If even a single voter turned away due to ballot shortages, it is a serious issue.”
• There are also claims that “exit poll results, released after 6 PM, might have influenced voting as it continued.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Next Prime Minister Candidates: Jeong Seong-ho, Han Sook-young, Kang Hoon-sik.

• Jeong Seong-ho (Minister of Justice), Han Sook-young (Minister of SMEs and Startups), and Kang Hoon-sik (Chief of Staff to the President) are reportedly under consideration.
• Kim Min-seok (Prime Minister) is widely expected to challenge for the party leadership.
• Related Link.

The Fix.

32 Million Eco-Bags, 50,000 Trees Saved.

• Hyundai Department Store’s eco-friendly shopping bags made from recycled paper have reached 32 million units over four years.
• They were created by collecting delivery boxes and packaging containers. The company claims this reduced wood usage by 8,000 tons.

Why the Application System Fails.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) called the “application-based system extremely cruel.”
• The Ministry of Health and Welfare proposed several adjustments, but evaluations suggest little real change.
• According to Nam Chan-seop (Dong-A University professor), only 2.4% of households identified as at-risk by the government became beneficiaries.
• The issue isn’t the application system itself—it’s the overly strict eligibility criteria.
• Cho Gi-hyun (writer) emphasized, “The ‘experience of the application system’ should be central to policy discussions.”
• On the ground, heartbreaking cases abound:
• A son with mental illness cannot register as disabled if he refuses diagnosis.
• A young adult estranged from their parents is asked to provide their parent’s health insurance payment records.
• Young caregivers must take days off work to complete paperwork.
• Cho Gi-hyun stressed, “Abolishing the application system is less critical than identifying and addressing specific crisis causes—caregiving burdens, medical costs, mental illness, debt.”
• Related Link.

ICYMI.

Won Hits 1,535 per Dollar.

• Current account surplus hits record high, yet the won weakens. Shin Hyun-song (Bank of Korea Governor) warned, “We will decisively respond to exchange rate volatility,” but no action has followed.
• Park Sang-hyun (IM Securities analyst) said, “Oil prices and exchange rates only watch the Strait of Hormuz.” The dollar’s strength as a relative safe haven is inevitable.
• Consumer prices rose 3.1%. A base rate hike next month is highly likely.

It’s Like a Terminator Story.

• The Financial Times’ analysis. AI has reached a stage where it learns and evolves on its own.
• Once so-called recursive self-improvement (RSI) begins, there’s a risk it could surpass human control and destabilize systems.
• Marius Hobbhahn (Apollyon Research CEO) said, “Everyone is sprinting full-speed, but no one knows how to avoid the worst-case scenario.”
• There are also concerns that “RSI could be humanity’s greatest discovery—and simultaneously its worst.”
• Richard Socher (Recursive Superintelligence CEO) said, “The faster we reach the goal, the more problems we can solve and help humanity thrive.”
• Andrej Karpathy (OpenAI co-founder) called it “a war against the final boss.”
• Michael Wooldridge (Oxford University professor) dismissed it as “just an attempt to attract investment with the latest buzzword.”
• Related Link.

Worth Reading.

Who Is the Main Enemy?

• When flustered, it’s North Korea. Kwon Tae-ho (Hankyoreh editor) assessed the “main enemy challenge” that circulated as YouTube Shorts during the election season as “no different from forcing someone to step on a cross.”
• Is North Korea our main enemy? The term was first used under Kim Young-sam’s government, omitted under Roh Moo-hyun’s, and revived as “our enemy” under Lee Myung-bak’s. So it’s a term unused since 2000.
• Jeong Min-cheol (generational communicator) pointed out, “Platforms create it, algorithms spread it, and parties adopt it—this isn’t a deviation, it’s a design.”
• Kwon Tae-ho analyzed, “The anger of 20-somethings over their contradictory circumstances, combined with biased information structures, is creating this situation.”
• Related Link.

Freedom to Destroy Democracy?

• Germany’s Basic Law states, “Freedom cannot be extended to those who seek to destroy democracy.” It’s called “militant democracy (Streitbare Demokratie).”
• Criminal Code Article 130 penalizes Holocaust denial or glorification—not as mere opinion, but as an act violating human dignity.
• Ahn Ji-hoon (Hanyang University professor) noted, “Democratic societies have long debated whether expressions that undermine human dignity and collective historical memory should be protected unconditionally, even as they guarantee free speech.”
• “Democracy respects diverse opinions. But it does not legitimize acts that degrade human dignity.”
• Related Link.