Lee Jin-suk Arrested a Day After Removal.

• Lee Jin-suk (former Chairperson of the Korea Communications Commission) was arrested by police the day after her removal.
• She was automatically dismissed after the National Assembly passed the Broadcasting, Media, and Communications Committee Establishment Act on the 27th of last month and it was promulgated at a State Council meeting on the 1st.
• Police explained, “We sent six summons letters to Lee Jin-suk, but she failed to appear, so we obtained an arrest warrant.”
• Lee raised her handcuffed hands in front of reporters and said, “They handcuffed me for not coming to the police station because I was attending the National Assembly.” She also remarked, “I, Lee Jin-suk, am here in handcuffs. Does the power of ‘Kongddal’ [‘puppy daughters’] exist above the president?”
• Lee’s arrest is unrelated to ‘Kongddal.’ She is not under detention but was arrested for failing to respond to police summons—she will be released after questioning. The alleged election law violation can be explained during the investigation.
• Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party Leader) said, “We are witnessing the entire nation going mad.”
• Kang Yu-jeong (Presidential Office Spokesperson) stated, “I heard she did not respond to the police summons” and added, “I understand that if one fails to appear three or more times, an arrest warrant is issued.”
• In an editorial, Chosun Ilbo criticized, “The targeted attack has gone too far.”
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What Matters Now.

KOSPI Tops 3,500.

• It’s a historic milestone.
• As the semiconductor super-cycle kicks into high gear, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix hit ‘90,000 won per share’ and ‘400,000 won per share’ respectively. Foreign investors bought 4.9 trillion won and 1.4 trillion won worth of shares in each company.

“The Trend Won’t Change Easily.”.

• It has risen 31.5% since Lee Jae-myung (President) took office.
• Lee Jae-myung said, “It’s thanks to normalizing the abnormal.”
• The ETF he invested in has recorded a 26.4% return.

US 3 Major Indices Hit All-Time Highs.

• The rally continues despite the US federal government shutdown.
• Semiconductor tech stocks are leading the market upward.

Big Events During the Chuseok Holiday.

• Japan will select its new prime minister tomorrow. If Koizumi Shinjiro (Japan’s Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries) is chosen, he’ll be the youngest PM; if Takaichi Sanae (former Minister in Charge of Economic Security) is selected, she’ll become Japan’s first female PM. Dubbed “Lady Abe,” she’s a far-right politician. Koizumi currently holds a slight lead.
• North Korea plans a large-scale military parade on the 10th to mark the 80th anniversary of the Workers’ Party founding. Whether Xi Jinping (President of China) attends is a key point of interest.
• Unsurprisingly, the US stock market never rests. The critical question is how much stocks will rise amid the shutdown. Corporate earnings reports will also continue.
• The APEC Gyeongju summit is scheduled for late this month. There’s also an open possibility of Donald Trump (US President) and Kim Jong-un (North Korean State Affairs Commissioner) meeting en route.
• The autumn baseball playoffs (postseason) begin on October 5th.

Seoul Apartment Prices Sizzle Like Pre-June 27.

• Prices have surged sharply in Gangdong-gu, Gwangjin-gu, Mapo-gu, and Seongdong-gu, centered around the Han River Belt.
• Even the regulated Gangnam Three Districts and Yongsan-gu—subject to land transaction permit requirements—continue their steady climb.
• Jeong Joon-ho (Professor at Kangwon National University) warned, “Without a comprehensive vision spanning financial, supply, and tax policies, the market will quickly adapt to any additional regulations, diminishing their effectiveness.”
• In an editorial, Kyunghyang Shinmun noted, “A single policy won’t stabilize housing prices,” urging, “Timing must not be missed.” It cautioned, “Even the strongest measures can melt away like ice on a heater if misapplied.”

Will the Tax Hike Card Be Played?

• Kim Yoon-deok (Minister of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport) said, “As a human being, not as a minister, I believe property taxes should be increased.”
• Kim Yong-beom (Presidential Office Policy Director) has also stated, “If needed for real estate market stability or housing welfare, policy tools should not be constrained.”
• The Lee Jae-myung government stands at a critical crossroads: whether to impose even stronger regulations or dramatically expand supply.
• Joo Jeong-wan (JoongAng Ilbo editorial writer) urged, “To avoid a ‘Lightning Poverty Season 2,’ I hope real estate policies are handled pragmatically rather than rigidly ideologically.”
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Deep Dive.

Yoon’s Bail Request Denied.

• “If granted bail, I would exercise slightly in the morning and evening, follow a diabetic diet, and cooperate with judicial procedures,” but the court deemed the risk of evidence tampering significant.
• Yoon has failed to appear for 13 court hearings.

EU Steel Tariffs at 50%.

• “If U.S. tariffs are a strong wind, EU tariffs are a typhoon,” goes the saying. Last year, South Korea exported $4.34 billion and $4.48 billion worth of steel to the U.S. and EU, respectively—making the EU the larger market.
• Protectionism appears to be spreading beyond the U.S.
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Private Prison With Interviews: Half Are Sex Offenders.

• Somang Prison in Yeoju, Gyeonggi Province, is evaluated as better than other correctional facilities in terms of occupancy rate and space per inmate. Of the 396 inmates, 202 are convicted of sexual violence or violations of the Juvenile Protection Act.
• Though operated by a Christian foundation, it receives 90% of its budget from state funds. It selects applicants from state-run prisons, and competition is high enough to require interviews.
• The Ministry of Justice explained, “Since we exclude violent offenders and short-term inmates from selection criteria, the high proportion of sex offenders simply reflects the large number who meet the criteria.”
• Park Eun-jung (Lawmaker, People’s Innovative Party) stated, “Somang Prison is effectively becoming a specialized facility for sex offenders.” She added, “The admission criteria must be thoroughly reviewed to prevent violent sex criminals from exploiting Somang Prison as a ‘privileged facility.’”
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Another Take.

Bill to Limit Appeals if Acquitted at Second Trial.

• Lee Jae-myung mentioned it in a Cabinet meeting, and a bill appeared the very next day: a Criminal Procedure Act amendment stating that if acquittals are upheld through the second trial, the case should be concluded.
• Lee Jeong-mun (Democratic Party lawmaker) said, “The bill was prepared before the president’s remarks.” Concerns arise that it violates the three-trial system and could infringe on crime victims’ rights.
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The Era of 2,000 Won Side Rice Bowls.

• Rice prices have risen to 65,000 won per 20kg. The government increased stockpiles last year, but production fell this year due to pests.
• Restaurants are increasingly eliminating side rice bowls, replacing them with higher-value-added options like pot rice or fried rice.
• The Segye Ilbo pointed out, “This fundamentally reveals the limitations of agricultural policy.” The shock is spreading to restaurants, school meal providers, and food distributors.
• Criticism also arises that government intervention distorts the market.
• A distribution industry official emphasized, “While quarantine policies are necessary, failures in demand forecasting and inventory management only exacerbate market distortion. A data-driven, sophisticated response is needed.”
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Stablecoins Could Trigger a Lending Cliff.

• The Bank of Korea opposes the introduction of stablecoins, fearing they could render monetary policy ineffective.
• A recent report warned, “As economic power becomes more concentrated, it could weaken banks’ stable deposit bases, shrinking their lending capacity.”
• For instance, issuing 100 billion won worth of Naver Coin would require maintaining a 100 billion won reserve—boosting capital transactions but freezing equivalent cash.
• Jin Sung-jun (Democratic Party lawmaker) noted, “While stablecoin adoption is inevitable, its ripple effects on small businesses and SMEs must be thoroughly considered.”
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National Pension Enrollment Declines as Beneficiaries Rise.

• As of the end of June, there were 21.73 million enrollees and 7.48 million beneficiaries.
• Enrollment decreased by 260,000 while beneficiaries increased by 110,000.
• The rise in voluntary enrollment among those under 30 is notable. Kim Seon-min (Lawmaker, Nation Innovation Party) assessed, “The increase in young people enrolling in the national pension—even after March’s pension reform—signals greater trust in the system’s security guarantees than before.”
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The Fix.

35,000 Livestock Culling Workers, Only One Receives Psychological Treatment.

• The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs supports psychological treatment, but actual treatment records are nearly nonexistent.
• A National Human Rights Commission survey found that 76% of participants exceeded the PTSD (post-traumatic stress disorder) diagnostic threshold.
• The analysis attributes this to insufficient outreach, particularly among migrant workers who make up a significant portion of the workforce.

100,000 Vacant Homes to Be Revitalized.

• Vacant homes spread like an epidemic, accelerating neighborhood collapse and regional decline.
• Over 130,000 homes have remained unoccupied for over two years, and 60,000 buildings have stood empty for two decades.
• The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) will expand and reorganize the vacant home platform ‘Vacant House Love.’ It will introduce a vacant building management system and establish a vacant building hub.
• Low-utility vacant structures will be aggressively demolished.

Jeju’s Renewable Energy Bidding Experiment.

• Power shortages are a problem, but so is oversupply. When solar or wind farms are forced to halt output, Korea Electric Power Corporation must compensate—last year, this cost 1.8096 trillion won.
• Jeju saw output curtailments rise to 181 cases in 2023, but this year they dropped to zero. By daily collecting the next day’s available capacity and prices and purchasing only what’s needed, the curtailment issue vanished.
• According to the Ministry of Climate, Energy, and Environment, excluding Jeju, output curtailments—which were 0.3 GWh in 2020—surged to 164 GWh in the first half of this year. Calls are growing to urgently expand Jeju’s experiment to the mainland.

Abalone Production Skyrockets 300-Fold via Keyboard-Style Farming.

• Named for its four-line grid resembling a keyboard.
• Abalone aquaculture grew from 2 tons in 1990 to 23,317 tons last year.
• Prices once exceeded 100,000 won per kilogram but have fallen to 24,000 won this year.
• Exports rose from 1,355 tons in 2020 to 2,185 tons last year.
• The breakthrough began in 1981 when Shin Woo-cheol (then a Wando Fisheries Extension Officer) successfully farmed abalone using net sacks.
• Production exploded when net sacks were integrated into grid aquaculture.
• That same Shin Woo-cheol is now Wando County Mayor.
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ICYMI.

Why the Kim Jae-seop-Mo Kyung-jong-Lee Joon-seok StarCraft Showdown Collapsed.

• Lawmakers had planned a StarCraft tournament, but Mo Kyung-jong (Democratic Party lawmaker) dropped out first.
• “Have you lost your mind playing StarCraft when the rebellion hasn’t even been quelled?” Democratic Party supporters flooded him with criticism.
• Mo apologized, saying, “I’m sorry for the concern,” and added, “Now is the time for us all to unite and fight.”
• Kim Jae-seop (People Power Party lawmaker) retorted, “If you can’t accept a game as a game, you have serious political disease,” and asked, “Is this really worth the hysteria?”
• Growth hormone injections cost 159.3 billion won last year.
• The medication is prescribed for hormone deficiency disorders, Turner syndrome patients, and others—but misuse concerns are high.
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Women Live Longer, but Men Age More Vibrantly.

• According to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency’s senior living function index, men aged 65+ scored 92 points, while women scored 81—a significant gap. Osteoporosis rates were 4% for men and 32% for women.
• Jeong Hee-won (Seoul Metropolitan Government Health Director) warned, “Women experience menopause in their 50s, leading to hormonal decline and accelerated aging,” adding, “Rapid muscle loss exacerbates osteoporosis.”
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Hangdamdo Service Area Tops Chuseok Holiday Sales for Five Years.

• Hangdamdo Service Area recorded 5.9 billion won in sales during Chuseok holidays over five years. Deokpyeong Service Area ranked second with 5.2 billion won.
• Hangdamdo also led during Lunar New Year holidays, earning 4.5 billion won over six years (including this year), while Deokpyeong followed with 4.4 billion won. However, this year alone saw Deokpyeong surpass Hangdamdo.
• Analysis by Hwang Un-ha (lawmaker of the People’s Innovative Party) of Korea Expressway Corporation data revealed that major menu items at service areas rose over 20% in six years. Udon increased from 5,315 won to 6,619 won, while walnut pastries jumped from 4,014 won to 4,823 won.
• Prices vary by service area. Fish cake skewers cost 4,500 won for two at Deokpyeong, but 4,000 won for three at Majang Service Area.
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Worth Reading.

All-In on AI Is Problematic.

• Koo Yoon-cheol (Minister of Economy and Finance) stated, “I believe AI is an all-in.” He also remarked, “The AI transition is the only breakthrough to reverse growth decline caused by demographic shock.”
• Ahn Sun-hee (Hankyoreh columnist) countered, “The government should be more measured,” adding, “They must heed warnings that technological innovation, if not paired with proper policy, could deepen inequality rather than share its fruits.”
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Caution Needed on Exemptions to the Separation of Industrial and Financial Capital.

• OpenAI’s pledge of 100 trillion won has already sparked talk of easing the separation of industrial and financial capital.
• Kyunghyang Shinmun argued in an editorial, “Prioritizing the reinvestment of corporate reserves and activating the government’s planned National Growth Fund should come first.”
• The separation of finance and industry is a minimal regulation born from the concern that if conglomerates control banks or banks dominate companies at will, the entire economy could be jeopardized.
• Kyunghyang Shinmun emphasized, “If financial-industrial separation rules must be adjusted, it should proceed only after establishing measures to check conglomerates, ensure fair competition, protect consumers, and minimize side effects—through social consensus.”
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Yoon’s Medical School Expansion and Lee’s Prosecutors’ Office Abolition.

• This is the assessment of Lee Sang-ryul (JoongAng Ilbo columnist).
• First, it’s a “shut up and attack” style. The ruling party dismissed opposition objections.
• Second, citizens will suffer. Case processing delays and backlogs of long-unsolved cases will pile up. Both medical school expansion and prosecutorial reform are necessary, but the side effects of rushing are concerning.
• Third, preparation was inadequate. It’s like tearing down the old barn before building a new one. Though there’s a one-year grace period, chaos is inevitable.
• Lee warned, “Reforms prioritizing political calculation over citizens by any administration have never ended well,” adding, “Ramming through reforms without heeding opposition often backfires—and that’s how public sentiment drifts away.”
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Politicians’ Futures Through the Lens of Fandom.

• Sung Han-yong (senior Hankyoreh journalist) provides the analysis.
• Lee Jae-myung (president) is a politician who succeeded through fandom. Sung Han-yong analyzed that strong fandom is becoming a burden.
• Jeong Cheong-rae (Democratic Party leader) doesn’t have a large personal fandom but successfully rode the wave of demand for a stronger Democratic Party.
• Kim Min-seok (prime minister) also lacks a fandom. He has three options: first, remain a working prime minister and aim for the next presidency; second, run for Seoul mayor in June next year; third, aim for party leadership in August next year.
• Kang Hoon-sik (presidential chief of staff) is also mentioned as a potential Seoul mayoral candidate. Kang Hoon-sik’s fandom is also nonexistent.
• Choo Mi-ae (Democratic Party lawmaker) has a strong supporter group. She is eyeing the Gyeonggi governor’s seat. Her next target is the presidency.
• Cho Kuk (leader of the Cho Kuk Reform Party) has a strong fandom among the 5060 generation but his presence has significantly diminished. He faces strong resistance from the 2030 generation. There’s a possibility he could fade after next year’s local elections.
• Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party leader) is riding a tiger’s back. He has potential, but if he falls, he dies.
• Han Dong-hoon (former People Power Party leader) is losing momentum. He doesn’t have much space to operate on the national stage.
• Oh Se-hoon (Seoul mayor) also has almost no fandom, but his presence is his competitive edge.
• Na Kyung-won (People Power Party lawmaker) could run for Gyeonggi or Chungcheongbuk governor. Though she seems unwilling, she won’t refuse if the party pushes her.
• Lee Jun-seok (Reform Party leader)’s fandom is narrow. To survive, he must abandon divisive tactics, ally with rational conservatives, and position himself as a generational change leader.
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Feedback.

Mastering Rock-Paper-Scissors.

• There were comments asking about the source of the rock-paper-scissors probability analysis we introduced a few days ago. I looked up some papers while thinking about it.
• First, there’s data from the World Rock Paper Scissors Association (WRPSA). Many people start with rock. If they win once, they tend to repeat the same move; if they lose, they switch. It’s rare for someone to play the same move three times in a row. Starting with paper gives a slightly higher win rate.
• Then there’s an experiment from Zhejiang University in China. When 360 participants played 300 rounds each, rock appeared 36% of the time, paper 33%, and scissors 32%. An overall cycle of rock-paper-scissors was observed. Recognizing this pattern could help predict opponents’ next moves.
• There’s also research showing that players subconsciously mimic opponents. When both players were blindfolded, the draw rate was 33.3%, but when only one was blindfolded, it rose to 36.3%.
• An AI vs. human experiment was conducted too. In a simulation where 12 AIs competed simultaneously and the best-performing one was selected, the result was 198 wins, 55 draws, and 47 losses for the AI—humans lost miserably. Since the AI won against 95% of humans, individual differences matter. Humans think in sequences of 5–9 moves, but the AI performed best when its memory length was 2–6. Humans follow broad patterns, while AIs detect habits within those patterns and respond. Human behavior is simple and repetitive, after all.
• There was controversy when a 3.8 billion won defense industry bid was decided by rock-paper-scissors. The technical and pricing conditions were identical, requiring a lottery. The game was played by computer, not humans, and was legally sound.
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