“Almost Over,” Then “Not Yet Victorious Enough.”.

• Donald Trump (U.S. President) flip-flopping is routine, but the past few days have been especially chaotic.
• When reporters asked if this week would mark the end, he only said, “No, very soon.”
• Trump is grasping for an exit strategy. He claimed the “Iran war was a short outing” and “everything they had is gone,” but reality disagrees.
• Iran’s likelihood of surrendering is practically zero. The Khamenei regime’s collapse is also unlikely for now. The Financial Times analyzed, “There is no easy exit strategy.”
• If the energy crisis persists, Trump’s approval ratings will drop further. Trump’s failures are making life harder for every country in the world.
• Related Link.

Iran Says, “We Will End the War.”.

• The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps numbers around 190,000 but commands militia forces of 300,000–500,000 and can mobilize 11 million reservists. It has led brutal crackdowns on anti-government protests.
• In Nam-sik (Professor, Korea National Diplomatic Academy) predicted, “Without ground combat, regime change will be difficult.”
• Related Link.

Trump Urges Israel to Halt Attacks on Iran.

• Black rain pours over Tehran.
• Donald Trump (U.S. President) has asked Israel to stop attacking energy facilities. For three reasons.
• First, a significant portion of Iranians oppose the regime. No need to harm civilians.
• Second, the U.S. needs oil. It must go the Venezuela route.
• Third, Iran could strike energy infrastructure in other Gulf states. The stance is that energy infrastructure should be a last resort.
• Both the U.S. and Iran are delaying their final blows.
• Related Link.

U.S. Forces in South Korea Have Taken Their Weapons Too.

• Patriot missiles have already been moved, and THAAD missiles are in the process of being relocated.
• Patriots defend up to 40 km, while THAAD covers 40–150 km.
• Lee Jae-myung (President) stated, “While we express opposition, it is a harsh reality that our views cannot be fully implemented. We must solidify our self-defense capabilities.”
• The Dong-A Ilbo editorial noted, “Institutional channels should be established to pre-negotiate not just unilateral notifications, but also how to compensate for security gaps with alternative forces.”
• Related Link.

What Matters Now.

The Scale of the War.

• The war began with U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, but at least 20 countries are now entangled in the conflict.
• Iran has attacked 10 countries. The UAE, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman have been hit by Iranian missiles.
• Hezbollah in Lebanon fired missiles at Israel, which retaliated. Reports claim Israel used white phosphorus shells in Lebanon—a weapon called “devil’s ammunition” because it burns to the bone on contact.
• Qatar shot down two Iranian fighter jets.
• A drone launched from Lebanon attacked a British airbase in Cyprus.
• Britain permitted the U.S. to use Diego Garcia base. British fighters also shot down Iranian drones.
• France dispatched a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.
• Greece and Turkey deployed troops. Iranian missiles struck a NATO missile base in Turkey.
• Australia sent missiles and radar reconnaissance planes to the UAE.
• Russia provides satellite imagery to Iran. It imports drones from Iran to attack Ukraine. Ukraine, in turn, received drone technology from the U.S.
• China is suspected of financially supporting Iran. It purchases 80–90% of Iran’s oil under sanctions.
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China’s Calculations.

• It is not bad for China if the U.S. gets bogged down in the Middle East quagmire. If U.S. missile systems in South Korea are redeployed to the Middle East, it would reduce pressure on Beijing.
• Zhu Yongyi (Director of the Institute of Middle East Studies at Peking University) analyzed, “In the short term, it will negatively impact China’s energy supply, but from a macro perspective, it provides strategic space for Beijing.” “If the U.S. intervenes deeply in the Middle East war, its capacity to contain China will inevitably be dispersed, and as other countries seek a stable mediator, Beijing’s influence could expand.”
• Park Min-hee (Hankyoreh Columnist) predicted, “If Beijing judges that Iran’s counterattacks complicate U.S. containment strategies, it is highly likely to provide covert support to Iran—supplying components and materials needed for weapons production.”
• The war has already begun, and Trump may find it difficult to extricate himself easily. China is watching Trump’s reckless and irresponsible war unfold.

Trump, Look at Them with Your Own Eyes.

• The headline of Iran’s Tehran Times front-page article.
• It features the faces of 150 victims from Minab Elementary School.
• A photo was released showing a missile, presumed to be a Tomahawk, hitting the school, to which Trump claimed, “Iran also uses Tomahawks.”
• The New York Times countered, “Only the U.S., Australia, and the UK possess Tomahawks.” When reporters pointed out, “Trump is the only one claiming Iran bombed its own elementary school,” he backtracked, “I haven’t fully grasped the issue.”
• Related Link.

Extra Oil Money on the Way.

• The government is reviewing a plan to provide energy vouchers to low-income and vulnerable groups.
• A reduction in fuel taxes is also under consideration.
• Calculations suggest an additional supplementary budget of 10–20 trillion won can be formed without issuing government bonds, as corporate and securities transaction taxes are expected to increase.

Woo Won-shik’s Constitutional Amendment Vote Proposal Rebuffed by People Power Party.

• It requires more than two-thirds majority support, so it cannot proceed without opposition agreement. Woo Won-shik (National Assembly Speaker) proposed a single-issue constitutional amendment.
• “If the National Assembly demands martial law revocation, it should be immediately lifted. If approval is not obtained within 48 hours of martial law declaration, it should automatically become invalid.” The stance is to postpone discussions on power structure issues like parliamentary systems or presidential term limits.
• Jeong Geuk-sik (People Power Party Policy Committee Chairman) dismissed it as “physically impossible within the timeframe and merely Woo Won-shik’s personal discussion.”
• The Democratic Party is demanding investigations into state affairs such as the Daejang-dong case and the Ssangbangwool North Korea remittance case. No agreement with the People Power Party is possible.
• To align the referendum with local elections, the amendment must be finalized by April 7.
• Lee Seok-yeon (National Integration Committee Chairman) argued, “It is practically impossible.” The position is to postpone it to the 2028 general election.
• Related Link.
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KOSPI Rebounds Again.

• After plunging 18.4% on the 3rd and 4th, it surged 9.6% on the 5th, fell 6.0% on the 9th, and rebounded 5.4% yesterday.
• It shifted from a triple bear market (stocks, exchange rate, bonds) to a triple bull market.
• Foreign investors returned, net purchasing 1.104 trillion won worth of shares.

Deep Dive.

Five Scenarios.

• First, Trump will claim victory, but Iran is unlikely to concede defeat.
• Second, a Venezuela scenario is impossible. Positioning Khamenei’s son as the next leader signals a fight to the end. The U.S. has not found Iran’s “Delsi” (Venezuela’s vice president), and in Iran, the competition to become “Maduro” (the powerholder) is fiercer than any “Rodríguez” (henchman) maneuvering.
• Third, will Iran negotiate? Unlikely. From Iran’s perspective, even enduring attacks and retaliating can be framed as victory.
• Fourth, will the Iranian regime survive? No immediate signs of fractures or defections, but anti-government protests could erupt. Both Iran and the U.S. are waiting for each other’s missile stockpiles to deplete.
• Fifth, war between Israel and Hezbollah? If U.S.-Iran hostilities cease, Israel is likely to step back for now.
• Related Link.

Poor Timing for a “TACO.”.

• TACO refers to Trump always backing down in fear. Trump doesn’t have much time left. He needs to prepare for midterm elections, but his approval ratings are abysmal.
• To lower oil prices, he must unblock the Strait of Hormuz—but he’s overwhelmingly at a disadvantage. Though he boasted about escorting tankers with the Navy, the burden is heavy.
• The Financial Times analyzed three Trump missteps:
• First, he should have increased oil reserves.
• Second, he should have preemptively rallied Gulf states.
• Third, he should have adequately explained the situation to the American public.
• The problem is that even a weakened Iran remains highly threatening. Above all, trust in the U.S. has collapsed.
• Related Link.

Per Capita Income Stagnates at $36,866.

• Stuck at $30,000 for 12 years.
• Japan reached $38,000, Taiwan $40,585.
• Surpassed both in 2023 and 2024—
• thanks to the won’s dollar depreciation.

Another Take.

“It’s the President’s Will, Drop the Indictment,” Really?

• Unverified claims. Made by Jang In-soo (former MBC journalist) on Kim Eo-jun’s News Factory.
• Jang claimed, “In an exclusive report,” a senior government official close to the president recently told multiple senior prosecutors, ‘My word is the president’s will’ ‘I only do what the president orders’ and urged, ‘Drop the indictment.’”
• When Kim Eo-jun (Ddanzi Ilbo CEO) remarked, “These days, many claim to speak for the president’s will,” Jang insisted, “I heard this from a very high-ranking government official with the authority and ability to take responsibility.”
• Jang alleged, “Prosecutors are calculating that if they drop the indictment, they can bundle the president and the official together and send them both down,” adding, “Prosecutors have already decided the charge: abuse of power.”
• According to Jang, someone in the Blue House requested the indictment against Lee Jae-myung (president) be dropped, and if prosecutors comply, they could face counter-charges of abuse of power. Hence, his argument for aggressive prosecutorial reform.
• So far, the claims remain unverified, and given the gravity, no rebuttal has been heard.
• Han Jun-ho (Democratic Party lawmaker) criticized, “They’re attacking the Lee Jae-myung administration with conspiracy theories that don’t even meet tabloid standards.”
• Tensions between Kim Eo-jun and the pro-presidential faction are escalating.
• Conflicts between the Blue House and Democratic Party hardliners over prosecutorial reform direction persist.
• A Blue House official met by The Hankyoreh said, “The president is persuading this hard, but [hardliners] are ignoring him and just doing their own politics, aren’t they?” A senior ruling party official remarked, “If the party followed the president, approval ratings would exceed 70%, but the ruling party is eroding the president’s support.”
• Kim Joon-il (political commentator) noted, “Kim Eo-jun usually directs conspiracy theories outward, but this is nearly the first time he’s aimed them internally,” adding, “His agenda-setting power was once strong enough to be called ‘directives’ within the ruling bloc, but it’s clearly weakened now.”
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Can the Constitutional Court Handle 15,000 Annual Constitutional Appeals?

• The Constitutional Court received 3,092 cases last year, with an average processing time of two years.
• The Court anticipates constitutional appeals could reach 15,000 annually.
• Son In-hyuk (Constitutional Court Secretary-General) explained, “This assumes a 25–30% appeal rate of Supreme Court cases.”
• In an editorial, Chosun Ilbo warned, “Both the Constitutional Court and the judiciary could collapse.”
• Related Link.
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Why Trump Is Losing His Grip.

• There was a time when war united the people, but the world has changed.
• 60% of Americans supported the Vietnam War at its outset. By the end, it had fallen to around 43%. Yet support for the current Iran conflict is even lower.
• Approval ratings keep dropping as the war drags on.
• Sara Maxey (Loyola University professor) noted, “Before the 2003 Iraq War, there was a year-long debate on why this issue mattered, why all other options were exhausted, and why this operation was necessary.”
• “Few foreign conflicts have proceeded without such a communication strategy,” she added.
• Related Link.

The Pitfalls of a Hands-On Leader.

• Khan analyzed Lee Jae-myung’s leadership.
• Kim Sung-wan (political commentator) assessed, “He is someone with problem-solving abilities.” The analysis: “He has the ability to drive logic toward results by striking at the core with detail-oriented precision.”
• Park Won-ho (Seoul National University professor) warned, “A cough from above can become pneumonia below,” adding, “Rather than relying on individual skills, it’s necessary to leave room for the system to function.”
• Park Jae-ik (STI researcher) noted, “Political capital doesn’t seem to be sufficiently used in building social consensus, which requires long-term patience and compromise.”
• Yoo Seung-chan (Story Dot CEO) pointed out, “Communication with the political sphere must be increased.”
• Seo Jeong-geon (Kyung Hee University professor) observed, “Scolding ministers in Cabinet meetings may provide temporary satisfaction, but over time, criticism could arise that he speaks from a third-person observer’s perspective.”

15 Years After Fukushima Meltdown, 0.9g Recovered from 880 Tons.

• Work to remove melted debris (fuel detritus) is not expected to begin until after 2037.
• Radiation levels remain high enough to kill a person within an hour of exposure.
• No decision has been made on where to relocate the material, and some estimate decontamination will not be feasible until 2051.
• The Asahi Shimbun warned, “Contaminated water continues to increase due to unmitigated groundwater inflow,” adding, “Ocean discharge will also persist.”
• Some projections suggest full decommissioning could take 100 years.
• Related Link.

Government and Business Unprepared to Take Responsibility.

• On the first day of the Yellow Envelope Law’s implementation, 900 workplaces flooded with bargaining demands. The law allows subcontract workers to negotiate directly with primary contractors.
• POSCO was the first to begin talks with subcontract workers.
• Coupang Logistics Service, a subsidiary of Coupang, started negotiations with subcontract unions.
• Facility management workers at Yonsei, Korea, and Sogang Universities demanded talks with their presidents.
• The Kyunghyang Shinmun noted, “It remains unclear whether primary contractors will actually respond to bargaining demands.” The analysis: “Conflicts between labor and management are likely to persist over the scope of employer recognition and interpretation of bargaining obligations.”
• The Hankook Ilbo reported an automotive industry insider saying, “Subcontract unions are now more likely to demand primary contractor negotiations on almost any company issue.” A business federation official added, “Expanding labor dispute targets will reduce corporate management predictability and increase bargaining burdens and conflict costs.”
• Yang Kyung-soo (Korean Confederation of Trade Unions Chairperson) stated, “The government and employers are still unprepared to take responsibility.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

The Fix.

Participatory Democracy Requires Time.

• Robert Putnam (Harvard professor) analyzed in “Bowling Alone,” “A 10-minute increase in commute time reduces community engagement by 10%.”
• There are three dilemmas of local communities: First, only those who already participate do so. Second, participation is dominated by elderly people with free time. Third, participation rates are higher among those with education and wealth.
• Kim Young-bae (Democratic Party lawmaker) witnessed three events demonstrating the potential of participatory democracy during his tenure as Seongbuk-gu mayor.
• First, he proposed a citizens’ assembly to find stable employment solutions for apartment security guards, which grew into a mutual-growth project.
• Second, when introducing participatory budgeting, half of the committee members were selected by lottery. Attendance rates exceeded 90%.
• Third, while running the Academy Heaven project, he realized that learning strengthens a community’s resilience.
• The keyword is time. Kim Young-bae emphasized, “Democracy disappears in a society where time for deliberation, discussion, and participation vanishes.” Distance is class, and time is an asset. That’s why 10-minute living zones matter, public electric bike-sharing (Ddareungi) is needed, and municipal bus systems must be publicized.
• Related Link.
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A Bus Stop Where Buses Never Come.

• A fake bus stop built in front of a nursing home. It was created because dementia patients often disappeared while waiting for buses.
• When caregivers suggest, “Why don’t you wait at that stop?” it often calms them down. Kim Ki-yeon (Chung-Ang University professor) explained, “This stop is not just a structure—it’s a space of recollection that connects to the familiar life of the past.”
• 40% of dementia patients exhibit aimless wandering.
• Kim Ki-yeon emphasized, “Dementia care is not about forcibly pulling patients back to reality but about temporarily entering their world.” “The stop is fake, but the warmth it holds is real. It’s okay if no bus ever comes.”
• Related Link.

ICYMI.

22,000 Seats for BTS Performance.

• Additional reservations open tomorrow. Standing seats from Gwanghwamun Station to near City Hall Station.
• All seats are free. Identity verification procedures are also in place to prevent scalping.

19,831 Doctoral Degrees Awarded.

• Women account for 44%.
• Of the 7,005 who are employed or about to be employed after receiving their doctorate, 10% earn less than 20 million won annually.
• 6% are classified as non-economically active, neither employed nor seeking work.

“Did You Wear the Shoes I Sent?”.

• Trump has been gifting shoes everywhere lately. The brand is Florsheim, and he buys them with his own money. At $145, they’re not overly expensive.
• There’s talk that every man in the White House is wearing the same shoes.
• The issue is that sizes are often guessed by eye, leading to many forcing themselves into ill-fitting pairs.
• Related Link.
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Worth Reading.

The Mechanics of the KOSPI Rollercoaster.

• The won is not a safe-haven currency, the Korean market is highly export-dependent, and it ranks low in global asset allocation.
• Lee Chang-min (Hanyang University professor) emphasized, “The first strategy for responding to an era where anger has become a constant must be sustained capital market reform.”
• “Instead of volatile, anxious capital, we need stable capital that stays put to support the backbone of the stock market. Only then can we have a market of cold reason that does not easily sway in the face of rage, fear, baseless rumors, or stock manipulation.”
• The second strategy is the government’s fiscal role. “With high inflation eroding real incomes, fiscal intervention is more urgent than ever to prop up consumption among vulnerable groups and act as a catalyst for businesses facing uncertainty.”
• Related Link.

Sofa-larity.

• Team Woo (Columbia University professor) coined the concept. It refers to the phenomenon where the frictionless convenience provided by platforms—shopping, content, recommendation services—creates an addictive infrastructure that becomes uncomfortable to live without.
• The argument is that we must distinguish between the consumer welfare gains brought by big tech innovation and sofa-larity.
• Coupang’s operation of Coupang Play to extend user stay time could also be a strategic rent-seeking move.
• Choi Han-soo (Kyungpook National University professor) pointed out, “If consumer price elasticity has decreased due to addiction, platforms can pass costs onto small businesses.” “Regulating the addictive structure of sofa-larity is a rational policy intervention to normalize distorted price mechanisms,” he added.
• Can the government prevail? It’s something even Samsung has failed to do. There’s a reason why big tech companies in the U.S., where Kim Beom-suk (Coupang chairman) is betting, stumble before Trump.