KOSPI 5000 Era.

• It marks a 70-year milestone for the Korean stock market and 43 years since the KOSPI index was first calculated in 1983. Evaluations suggest this is not a temporary rebound but a breakthrough beyond the chronic “Korea discount.”
• A nearly 2000-point surge in seven months is a record rarely seen in global stock market history.
• A market driven by retail investors. Yesterday, individuals net-bought ₩1.557 trillion worth, while foreigners and institutions net-sold ₩2.262 trillion and ₩3.740 trillion worth, respectively.
• After profit-taking selling flooded the market, it peaked at 5019.54 and closed at 4952.53.
• Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix recorded 150,000 won per share and 780,000 won per “Nix,” respectively. Their market caps of ₩996 trillion and ₩550 trillion account for 38% of the KOSPI’s total ₩4096 trillion market cap.
• Related Link.

Retail Investors Still Split: Half in the Red.

• JoongAng Ilbo analyzed all 4 million NH Investment & Securities accounts and found exactly half were in loss territory.
• Overseas investors still outperformed domestic ones: -52% for local accounts vs. -38% for foreign stock accounts.
• Performance polarized sharply by stock. This year, 1,328 stocks rose while 1,563 fell.
• Naver investors averaged -10% returns, Kakao -31%—with 150,000 and 240,000 individual investors respectively.
• Related Link.

Lee Jae-myung’s Investment Strategy.

• During his presidential campaign, he invested ₩40 million in KOSPI ETFs, pledging to add ₩1 million monthly for five years, totaling ₩60 million.
• The specific funds were disclosed: KODEX 200 and KODEX KOSDAQ 150 ETFs. They rose 103% and 31% respectively—index-tracking funds rather than individual stocks.
• Lee’s unrealized gains exceed ₩27 million.
• Related Link.

Rallies Under Progressive Governments, But Roh Still Leads.

• It crossed 1,000 under Roh Tae-woo (former president) and 2,000 under Roh Moo-hyun (former president). It surpassed 3,000 under Moon Jae-in (former president) but later collapsed.
• It recorded negative returns under Kim Young-sam’s government and Yoon Suk-yeol’s administration.
• Under Lee Jae-myung’s government, it surged 83.5% in seven months. Since Lee’s (former presidential candidate) hypothetical administration began, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have risen 168% and 264%, respectively. Hyundai Motor also climbed 188%.

What Matters Now.

“Merge the Democratic Party and Cho Kuk’s Party.”.

• It is a proposal by Lee Cheong-rae (Democratic Party Leader). Cho Kuk (Reform Party Leader) responded positively, saying, “I agree with the goal.”
• Hong Ik-pyo (Chief of Presidential Political Affairs) said, “It aligns with the president’s long-held principle.”
• Though reportedly coordinated with the Blue House in advance, the Supreme Council was informed only 20 minutes prior.
• A Democratic Party lawmaker said, “The party’s approval ratings should be overwhelming, but they aren’t, which is unsettling.” Warnings also emerge that “Cho Kuk’s party could split the vote if it runs.”
• It could be Lee Cheong-rae’s re-election project. A landslide in local elections would create the next opportunity. A party lawmaker remarked, “If we proceed alone, it’s the president’s achievement—but merging would make it Lee Cheong-rae’s.”
• Park Soo-hyun (Democratic Party Spokesperson) stated, “The proposal is the leader’s decision, but the final call rests with the members.”
• Donga Ilbo analyzed, “The Democratic Party aims to sweep not only Seoul and Chungcheong but also battlegrounds like Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Cho Kuk’s Reform Party Struggles to Survive Alone.

• Mergers were widely seen as a matter of time. Polls hover around 3-4%.
• Two options remain: carve out a foothold in the Honam region independently in local elections, then negotiate from strength—or merge before elections to reduce political risk. Only political calculus remains.
• Lee Jun-seok (Reform Party Leader) said, “They’re just different numbers on the same Chinese restaurant menu,” adding, “Politics shouldn’t be conducted like placing orders from two separate phones.”

Deep Dive.

Can KOSPI Lead Growth?

• “Stock investments could provide mid-year dividends, cover living expenses, and serve as an alternative to real estate—making capital raising easier for companies and creating a virtuous cycle for the economy.”
• This was Lee Jae-myung’s (former presidential candidate) remark when KOSPI hit 2,900 last June.
• According to Kyunghyang Shinmun’s analysis, KOSPI and consumption have not moved in tandem over the past decade.
• As of end-2023, Korea Securities Depository data shows 92% of investors hold 22% of market cap, while the remaining 8% hold 78%—with average holdings of ₩1.277 million and ₩543.37 million, respectively, reflecting a vast disparity.

FOMO Syndrome: Am I the Only One Not Joining?

• Investor deposits reached ₩96 trillion as of the 20th—up nearly 9% from ₩88 trillion at the end of last year. The credit exposure balance, a “debt investment” indicator, also rose nearly 7% from ₩26 trillion to ₩29 trillion.
• Hyundai Securities raised its KOSPI target to 5,500. JPMorgan set its target at 6,000.

Timing to Introduce Financial Investment Income Tax and Abolish Securities Transaction Tax.

• South Korea has no capital gains tax on stocks. Critics argue this violates tax equity.
• Reducing transaction costs and taxing profits is the correct direction.
• Lee So-young (Democratic Party lawmaker), who led the push to abolish the financial investment income tax, once said, “Only when the market stabilizes above 3,000 and heads toward 4,000 would people consider tolerating taxes.” What would she say now?

Pushing Through the Third Corporate Law Revision.

• 1st revision mandated that boards of directors must act in shareholders’ interests. 2nd revision introduced cumulative voting to ensure board independence.
• 3rd revision forces mandatory sale of treasury shares. Oh Gi-hyeong (Democratic Party lawmaker) said, “There was consensus that it cannot be delayed further.”
• The stock price suppression prevention law (inheritance and gift tax law amendment) and dual listing ban (capital markets law amendment) are also under review.

Growth Rate Barely Clears 1% Last Year.

• Without rounding, it’s 0.97%—as expected. The fourth quarter alone saw -0.3% growth.
• Private consumption increased, but both construction investment (-3.9%) and equipment investment (-1.8%) declined. Some analyses suggest growth would have been 2.4% without construction investment.
• Semiconductor exports contributed 0.9 percentage points. Lee Chang-yong (Bank of Korea Governor) noted, “A K-shaped recovery is difficult to view as sustainable or complete.”
• The Bank of Korea forecasts 1.8% growth for this year.
• Related Link.

Finally Opens: Lee Hye-hoon’s Confirmation Hearing.

• The People Power Party plans to focus its attack on Lee Hye-hoon (Minister of Planning and Budget nominee)’s “parental privilege.”
• They had boycotted the hearing over insufficient document submissions, but additional family-related materials have since arrived.
• Her eldest son was admitted to Yonsei University through a “multiple-children quota,” but no such quota existed in 2010.
• The verification process will also examine how her three sons accumulated ₩4.7 billion in assets.
• Related Link.

Another Take.

Jang Dong-hyeok’s 8th Day of Hunger Strike, Park Geun-hye Breaks It.

• There was no exit strategy. He demanded a special prosecutor but the Democratic Party showed no reaction.
• Out of the blue, Park Geun-hye (former president) appeared, saying, “It’s politically unthinkable for the government and ruling party to remain unresponsive” and urged, “The public will recognize sincerity.”
• When Park said, “I hope he stops fasting and recovers his health,” Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party Leader) replied, “I will do so.”
• Though it was an empty-handed fast, some assess it strengthened his grip on party leadership.

Hyundai Motor Union: “No Robots Without Labor Agreement.”.

• Hyundai Motor plans to deploy 30,000 Atlas robots by 2028.
• At a ₩100 million annual salary, 24/7 human labor would cost ₩300 million—robots incur only maintenance costs after initial purchase.
• The Hyundai Motor Union insisted, “Not a single robot can be introduced without labor-management agreement.”
• Chosun Ilbo analyzed, “Labor-management conflict has begun.”
• Related Link.

Robot Boom Era: The Price Tag Problem.

• Hyundai’s Atlas robot pricing remains undisclosed.
• Lee Soo-rim (DS Securities Analyst) estimates the appropriate sales price for humanoids at $40,000–$50,000. “If it doesn’t reach this price point, it’ll remain just automation equipment or demo tech—unable to scale as an industrial material replacing human labor,” he argues. The key, ultimately, is who controls the cost structure.
• Tesla Optimus’s initial prototype manufacturing cost was $60,000–$100,000. The actual sales target is $20,000. Prices must drop significantly to create a market.
• *Note on formatting correction:** The closing “ tags in the final line were unintentionally included in the content. The correct output should omit these as they are not part of the original Korean content. Here is the revised version:
• Robot Boom Era: The Price Tag Problem.
• Hyundai’s Atlas robot pricing remains undisclosed.
• Lee Soo-rim (DS Securities Analyst) estimates the appropriate sales price for humanoids at $40,000–$50,000. “If it doesn’t reach this price point, it’ll remain just automation equipment or demo tech—unable to scale as an industrial material replacing human labor,” he argues. The key, ultimately, is who controls the cost structure.
• Tesla Optimus’s initial prototype manufacturing cost was $60,000–$100,000. The actual sales target is $20,000. Prices must drop significantly to create a market.

Trump’s Rambling.

• He withdrew tariffs on the EU but repeated demands to acquire Greenland, making these remarks at the Davos Economic Forum.
• “NATO gave us nothing. Before I took office, the U.S. paid nearly 100% of NATO’s costs.”
• “Without us, you’d all be speaking German, maybe even a bit of Japanese.”
• “The U.S. administered Greenland as a trust territory and returned it politely to Denmark.”
• “We’re asking for a cold, poorly located ice chunk—tiny compared to what we’ve given Europe.”
• The 100% cost claim and trust territory narrative are false. He spent 70 minutes repeating lies like “I ended eight wars” and “The 2020 election was rigged.”
• When asked about calling Greenland “Iceland” three times, Caroline Leavitt (White House Press Secretary) claimed he said “ice land” and accused reporters of “being the only ones confused here.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Peace Commission Instead of the UN?

• It’s a proposal by Donald Trump (U.S. President). Vladimir Putin (Russian President) has agreed to participate, and Israel has also expressed support.
• Over $1 billion must be paid to become a permanent member—Russia has already signaled willingness to pay first.
• Critics question whether warring states like Russia or Israel should attend a peace commission. South Korea also plans to participate.
• The Financial Times noted, “Only authoritarian states eager to flatter Trump have been pleased.”
• Related Link.

Coupang Shareholders Sue South Korean Government.

• They filed an intent to initiate an Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) arbitration.
• Investment firms including GreenOaks and Altimeter claim the South Korean government violated the Korea-U.S. FTA.
• The allegation is that undue pressure from the government after Coupang’s personal data breach caused losses.
• The government has stated it will respond proactively.

The Fix.

Green Transition Investment: 100 Trillion Won on Standby.

• AX (AI Transition) is followed by GX (Green Transition). As energy consumption grows, so do the costs of carbon neutrality—and the opportunities.
• “Banks, insurers, and financial investment firms hold 6,000 trillion won in assets. If profitability is guaranteed by linking policy and finance, mobilizing 100 trillion won annually is no big deal.”
• Lim Dae-woong (BNZ Partners CEO, UN Environment Programme Finance Initiative Korea Representative) pointed out, “The issue isn’t a lack of money—it’s that we don’t know what’s green, so it’s not moving.”
• If physical AI is trending, businesses should simultaneously explore reducing greenhouse gas emissions by adopting it. Data centers must be designed to reduce energy use. Innovative products replacing cement could be developed, or semiconductor processes with lower emissions.
• “Times of great transition are times of opportunity. Rapid industrial shifts and technological innovation are core survival strategies. We must drive ultra-gap transitions and ultra-gap innovations.”
• The government must support productive finance for the green transition and expand infrastructure investment. Lim Dae-woong emphasized, “Investments in offshore wind, resource circulation, and eco-friendly ports are essential.”
• Related Link.

School Violence Market Thrives—Only Lawyers Benefit.

• At one school, six victims and perpetrators faced a school violence committee attended by six lawyers.
• The current approach to handling school violence involves mutual doxxing, nitpicking, and escalating conflicts via KakaoTalk.
• Cho Hee-yeon (former Seoul Metropolitan Education Superintendent) criticized, “The same double standard is reproduced—applying the highest moral criteria to ‘enemies’ and the lowest to ‘our side.’”
• Cho proposed two solutions:
• First, establish a process to conclude cases based on the degree of reflection and reconciliation, rather than automatically escalating to the school violence committee.
• Exempting first and second graders from school violence laws could also be considered.
• Second, decouple school violence from college admissions and eliminate its lifelong stigma.
• The simple principle must be reaffirmed: schools are educational institutions, not judicial bodies.
• Related Link.

Rice Consumption: Less Than Half a Bowl Per Meal.

• Down to 148g per day—barely half a bowl if a bowl is 100g.
• Last year’s annual per capita rice consumption was 53.9kg, half the 106.5kg of 30 years ago.
• Rice consumption by food and beverage manufacturers rose nearly 7% to 932,102 tons. Food products increased 13%, while beverages fell 5%.
• When discussing rice consumption, processed rice must be considered.
• It’s not that people eat less rice—it’s that they eat fewer bowls.
• Overall rice consumption has not significantly decreased or has even increased.
• Related Link.

ICYMI.

Gold, Silver, and Copper Rally.

• Gold prices surpassed $4,800 per troy ounce (31.1035g),
• silver exceeded $95 per troy ounce.
• Copper? It broke $13,000 per ton.
• Roughly, gold is 50 times silver, silver is 35 times copper.
• 1kg of gold could buy 12 tons of copper.
• They say gold and silver rise during recessions, copper during booms—
• but all three rising simultaneously is an unusual phenomenon.
• Related Link.

Cambodian Scam Gang: 73 Members Forcibly Repatriated.

• They are accused of defrauding 869 South Korean citizens of ₩48.6 billion.
• A charter flight was sent yesterday; they will be brought back today.
• Lee Jae-myung said, “Make it clear that anyone who harms South Korean citizens—whether domestically or abroad—will face utter ruin.”

Prosecutors Who Opposed Dropping Daejang-dong Appeal Sent to Training Institute.

• Prosecutors who signed statements or demanded No Man-seok (then acting Prosecutor General)’s resignation were pushed out—clear demotions.
• Park Young-bin (Incheon District Prosecutors’ Office Chief) submitted his resignation, saying, “The right path is reached even if taken the long way.”

KOSPI 5,000: A Retrospective of Words.

• “It’s illogical for someone who worsens the basics to claim they’ll raise stocks to 5,000.” / May last year, Kim Moon-soo (then People Power Party presidential candidate).
• “Stock indices don’t rise through slogans. They require the value growth of companies’ hard work, strong economic fundamentals, and accumulated market trust. Lee Jae-myung’s promise of KOSPI 5,000 is like building a flashy second or third floor while skipping the foundation.” / May last year, Na Kyung-won (People Power Party lawmaker).
• “The biggest losers in stocks are those who initially win by luck—often called ‘newbie luck’ or ‘opening-day momentum.’ Early gains make people euphoric, deluding them into thinking they’re Warren Buffett. Then, like a car without brakes, they crash. I hope the Lee Jae-myung government isn’t such a ‘lucky opening’ administration. They must not mistake the structural relief from martial law conditions for their own competence and spiral out of control. How far must KOSPI fall before they sober up?” / August last year, Lee Jun-seok (Reform Party Leader).
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Worth Reading.

Lee Jae-myung’s 9.99 Leadership.

• “Lee Jae-myung (President) uses up to 9.99 when the deadline is 10 for any decision,” said Kim Min-seok (Prime Minister).
• Keeping possibilities open until the last minute and refusing to let go of questions is Lee Jae-myung’s strength. His continued scrutiny of Lee Hye-hoon (Minister of Planning and Budget nominee) is for this reason.
• Compared to Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party appears impatient. They often pinpoint and attack opposing views.
• Though Lee Jae-myung said, “Let’s not rush and go step by step,” they are still chanting “complete abolition of prosecution’s investigative power.”
• Jeong Won-soo (Donga Ilbo Deputy Editor) pointed out, “The ruling party must abandon its impatience and question, and question again, each clause to minimize side effects like institutional gaps and public inconvenience.”
• Related Link.

Why Oppose Yoon Suk-yeol’s Execution?

• There is merit to the special prosecutor’s argument that a minimum sentence cannot be requested for an anachronistic coup d’état.
• Son Je-min (Kyunghyang Shinmun Social Editor) suggested, “I hope this society’s discussion, which overcame internal rebellion, isn’t trapped in such legal formalism.” The argument is, “We can’t make exceptions just because we dislike Yoon Suk-yeol.”
• First, the crime-prevention effect of the death penalty hasn’t been proven,
• Second, “The outcome of an internal rebellion—a crisis where unarmed citizens courageously defended democracy and human rights—must not be the death penalty, a symbol of authoritarianism and anti-human rights.”
• Third, legislation restricting the pardon power of internal rebellion criminals could be a more appropriate punishment.
• Son Je-min proposed, “Though the U.S. is regressing into authoritarianism and fascism, inverting values and causing global chaos, Korean society can choose a different path.”
• Related Link.

Is Lee Jae-myung’s Prosecution Different from Yoon Suk-yeol’s?

• This refers to Justice Minister Jeong Seong-ho’s remark, “The prosecution under the Lee Jae-myong administration is different.”
• Oh Chang-ik (Secretary-General of the Human Rights Solidarity) criticized, “Jeong Seong-ho’s statement is an irresponsible act mixing naivety and arrogance.”
• “The prosecution has always been the same. In the early days of a popular administration, they always show loyalty to the government, but change significantly after the mid-term.”
• “It’s impossible to be swayed by prosecutors or to let lifelong prosecutors dictate prosecution reform. As the president said, prosecution reform should be finalized in the National Assembly.”
• Related Link.

No One Invests to Widen Inequality.

• Jo Hyeong-geun (Sociologist) pointed out, “Yet these mundane desires, when aggregated, create a dizzying slope.”
• “Within the chain of injustice lies ‘innocent us.’”
• “The rise in stock prices and real estate reflects the collective flow, accumulated infrastructure, and technological progress forged by countless people—it is the fruit of society as a whole. Capital gains privatize this shared harvest into individual vaults. That’s why fair taxation is the bare minimum of justice.”
• Jo Hyeong-geun proposed, “Demand that parties supporting the restoration of fair taxation language—rather than tax cuts—take action.”
• Related Link.

K-Shaped Growth: A Growing Concern.

• At the top: exports, conglomerates, regular workers, the capital region, and the wealthy.
• At the bottom: domestic demand, SMEs, self-employed workers, and non-regular laborers.
• The gap continues to widen. Ahn Sun-hee (Hankyoreh Columnist) noted, “Unfortunately, most measures are trivial or mere repetitions of existing policies—no standout solutions are visible.”
• The solutions are known: fostering coexistence between conglomerates and SMEs, eliminating discrimination between regular and non-regular workers, stabilizing the real estate market, and strengthening redistribution through fair taxation and expanded welfare. It’s not ignorance but a lack of prioritization.
• Ahn Sun-hee emphasized, “What the Lee Jae-myung administration needs more is the ability to design sophisticated policies, strong resolve to implement them, and leadership to persuade the public.”
• Related Link.

The Crime of Neglecting Duty.

• Han Duck-soo’s (former Prime Minister) trial will set an important precedent. While punishment for prohibited acts is clear, regulations for failing to perform duties are often abstract.
• First, Han Duck-soo neglected his duty as Vice-Chair of the State Council. He should have contacted all State Council members but merely ensured a quorum.
• Second, he failed to exercise his supervisory authority as Prime Minister. Despite knowing that Lee Sang-min (then Minister of the Interior and Safety) had instructed media outlets to cut off electricity and water, he did not intervene.
• Lim Jae-sung (Haemaru Law Firm lawyer) pointed out, “Destruction of constitutional order is completed by the silence of those who could have prevented it.”
• “The most dangerous person is not the loyalist who executes orders, but the one who hides behind procedural shields while possessing the authority to stop those actions.”
• Related Link.