From $1,000 to $100,000: Trump’s Visa Bombshell.

• Donald Trump (U.S. President) raised the fee for professional employment visas (H-1B) by 100 times—from $1,400 to $140,000.
• Money (investment) is welcome, but people are not.
• As backlash grew, he stepped back, applying the hike only to new applicants.
• The ESTA (Electronic System for Travel Authorization) fee will also rise from $21 to $40.
• Related Link.

Green Card for $1 Million: Trump’s Golden Ticket.

• It will be sold under the name “Trump Gold Card.” The Platinum Card is $5 million.
• A domain trumpcard.gov was also created.
• The plan is to issue 80,000 cards.
• Related Link.

What Matters Now.

“If U.S. Demands Are Met, IMF-Level Crisis Looms.”.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) made the remark in an interview with Reuters.
• “If investments are made in cash according to U.S. demands, we will face a situation similar to the 1997 crisis,” he said, adding, “I believe blood allies can maintain a minimum level of rationality.”
• Related Link.

People Power Party’s 120,000 Unification Church Members.

• This is the list confirmed by the special prosecutor’s seizure and search.
• The special prosecutor believes they joined the party systematically to influence elections.
• The People Power Party has 5 million total members, and the special prosecutor is cross-referencing the list with 1.2 million Unification Church followers.
• The People Power Party counters, “There are only about 3,000 Unification Church members.”
• Song Un-seok (People Power Party floor leader) argued, “Our party members account for about 10% of the population, so statistically, any list of 1.2 million people would likely include 10% of our members.”
• Jeong Cheong-rae (Democratic Party leader) said, “If suspicions of the People Power Party’s ties to the Unification Church are proven, they won’t avoid party dissolution.”
• Han Hak-ja (Unification Church leader) faces a substantive review of her arrest warrant today.
• Related Link.

Can the People Power Party Be Dissolved?

• Hankook Ilbo pointed out, “No concrete danger has been proven to the extent of the Unified Progressive Party case.”
• The principle of separating politics and religion does not apply to political parties.
• While there may be criticism that the Unification Church’s voice was overrepresented, it must be proven that this danger is severe enough to undermine the foundations of democratic order.
• Cho Jae-hyun (Dong-A University professor) explained, “If it is proven that the party actively instructed members not to respond to demands for lifting martial law or obstructed its revocation, there may be grounds to consider filing for dissolution,” adding, “However, mere deviations by specific lawmakers are unlikely to meet the criteria.”
• Related Link.

“No Fact-Checking Done.”.

• These are the words of Rep. Bu Seung-chan (Democratic Party), who raised suspicions that Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae and then-Prime Minister Han Deok-soo met shortly after the Supreme Court’s ruling on Lee Jae-myung (then Democratic Party presidential candidate) in May.
• In a call with a Kyunghyang Shinmun reporter, Bu said, “Raising suspicions is only natural” and added, “Determining truth or falsehood is a matter for investigation.”
• Kim Byung-ki (Democratic Party floor leader) responded to reporters’ questions about disclosing additional evidence by saying, “It would be better to wait and see how the investigation unfolds.”
• A Democratic Party lawmaker remarked, “Claims like the meeting theory and resignation theory need to be sorted out,” adding, “There’s internal talk that the party leader should exercise restraint.”
• Related Link.

Did the Unification Church Push for Kim Ki-hyun?

• Cheon Gwang-am (editorial director of Dong-A Ilbo) noted, “The story changes if ‘organizational power’ and ‘transactions’ were involved in the party membership process.”
• The special prosecutor confirmed that ahead of the 2023 People Power Party convention, Yoon Young-ho (then Unification Church head) asked Jeon Seong-bae (Gunjin Beopsa) “How many are needed for the convention” and requested, “Mobilize over 10,000.”
• Statements were also secured that the Unification Church distributed party membership forms at the organizational level and reported quotas.
• They allegedly pushed for Kweon Seong-dong (People Power Party lawmaker) as party leader, and when he withdrew, the candidate may have shifted to Kim Ki-hyun (People Power Party lawmaker).
• The 2023 People Power Party convention involved 460,000 responsible party members—even 100,000 coordinated votes could sway the outcome.
• Related Link.

Deep Dive.

Britain Recognizes Palestine as a State.

• Canada and Australia have also joined.
• They agreed to place it as the top agenda at the UN General Assembly starting the 23rd.
• Keir Starmer (UK Prime Minister) maintains that Israel must sign a ceasefire agreement and engage in peace negotiations under a two-state solution.
• South Korea recognizes the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) as the representative of Palestine but does not acknowledge it as an independent state.
• Related Link.

Trump-Xi to Meet in Gyeongju.

• Though speculation had swirled, Trump’s Truth Social post—“We have agreed to meet”—confirmed Xi Jinping’s (Chinese President) attendance.
• Projections suggest this will be the largest diplomatic event of Trump’s second term.

Q2 US Tariffs on South Korea Surge 47-Fold.

• At $3.2 billion, South Korea ranks sixth globally—China leads with $14.2 billion.
• The 47-fold increase from Q4 last year puts South Korea first in growth rate.
• The Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry forecasts that while importers initially bear the burden, over time the cost will increasingly fall on exporters.
• Goldman Sachs estimates that exporters, consumers, and importers would bear 67%, 25%, and 8% of the tariffs, respectively.
• Related Link.

Another Take.

How to Give the US $350 Billion.

• First, withdraw from foreign exchange reserves. This would likely cause a sharp drop in the country’s credit rating.
• Second, issue won-denominated government bonds. The market would struggle to absorb such a volume, and a sharp rise in exchange rates is inevitable.
• Third, issue dollar-denominated government bonds. This would be ideal if feasible, but interest rates are high and issuance is not straightforward.
• Fourth, a currency swap with the US has been discussed, but Han Sang-chun (Korea Economic Daily columnist) dismissed it as impossible. The Federal Reserve Board would need to approve it, and there is no reason for a reserve currency nation to offer an unlimited swap to a non-reserve currency country.
• If $350 billion must be invested, the negotiation should extend the timeline and focus on guarantees and loans rather than cash.
• Related Link.

Why Did Japan Do It?

• South Korea’s resolution of the tariff negotiations—conditional on a $350 billion investment—follows Japan’s precedent.
• Why did Japan do it? Lee Chang-min (Professor, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies) offers two interpretations.
• First, there may be undisclosed side agreements we are unaware of.
• Second, Japan might have simply surrendered unconditionally. Could it have been due to the lingering trauma of the 1985 Plaza Accord?
• South Korea’s situation is worse than Japan’s: though the amount is smaller, its scale relative to GDP is larger.
• Lee emphasized, “The only realistic alternative is to secure a permanent, sufficiently scaled dollar swap with the U.S., just like Japan.”
• Related Link.

Endure and Survive.

• It was the choice Japan made first. South Korea appears to have no option but to accept a similar memorandum of understanding as Japan or face 25% tariffs.
• Japan must deposit cash in dollars within 45 days once Trump decides on investment targets. Howard Lutnick (U.S. Secretary of Commerce) emphasized, “South Korea must also accept the agreement or pay tariffs.”
• It is a humiliating situation. Gil Yun-hyung (Hankyoreh Columnist) stressed, “Though ashamed and resentful to the point of despair, there may yet be a path to endure and survive.”
• Related Link.

Bank of Korea Warns of Industrial Hollowing-Out.

• “While short-term growth effects such as intermediate goods exports may occur, risks like industrial hollowing-out, employment contraction, and brain drain remain latent,” according to the analysis.
• The European Union explicitly designated corporations as the entities responsible for securing investment funds. Cheong Young-woo (former Blue House National Security Advisor) analyzed, “Even if actual investments fail to materialize, the EU bears no responsibility.”
• Na Won-jun (Kyungpook National University Professor) argued, “If the investment funds cannot be recovered, the burden will fall entirely on the public.”
• Related Link.

Win-Win with the US to Counter China.

• Cho Hyun (Minister of Foreign Affairs) holds a unique stance.
• He emphasized that South Korea should leverage the US market to counterbalance a rapidly rising China. “If South Korea seeks a new breakthrough, it lies in combining American technology and utilizing the US market,” he stated, adding, “South Korea and the US have a mutually beneficial win-win relationship.”

“I’m Kirk Too,” at Charlie Kirk’s Memorial.

• Charlie Kirk (conservative activist), who was killed in a shooting, was commemorated at a memorial service. American society is spiraling into deeper division.
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (U.S. Representative) stated, “We must be clear about who Charlie Kirk was—his beliefs were ignorant, uneducated, and alienated millions of Americans.”

“Let’s Find Ways Men Are Discriminated Against.”.

• Lee Jae-myung instructed Won Min-kyung (Minister of Gender Equality and Family), stating, “Men face relative discrimination in certain areas.”
• Controversial remarks abounded, including, “Women have an advantage until they get hired,” or “I understand why women hate women.”
• Lee Han (activist with ‘Feminism with Men’) commented, “Separating women’s discrimination from men’s discrimination without addressing gender stereotypes and patriarchal culture can create unnecessary conflict.” He added, “Instead of saying, ‘Find men’s discrimination,’ we should examine how gender stereotypes intertwine with regional and labor issues to create complex forms of discrimination.”
• Related Link.

Planned to Just Release a Press Statement, But Yoon Expanded the Mess.

• The Great Whale Project has finally concluded as a failure, revealing last June’s situation.
• Officials from the Korea National Oil Corporation were stunned by Yoon Suk-yeol’s (then-president) briefing. Ahn Duk-geun (then-Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy) chimed in, “Five times Samsung Electronics’ market cap.”
• Though suspicions of zero economic viability existed from the start, Yoon fanned the flames, pouring 126.3 billion won into it.
• The Korea National Oil Corporation stated, “We commissioned a study to assess damages.” No further drilling will occur.
• Related Link.

State Properties Sold at Bargain Prices.

• Last year, 795 properties were sold—467 of them at prices below appraised value.
• This year, 324 out of 500 sales (through July) were also below appraised value.
• Park Min-gyu (Democratic Party lawmaker) stated, “The government must not hastily offload state assets, which belong to the people, as if selling them to a pawnshop.”
• Related Link.

South Korean Military to Shrink to 350,000 by 2040.

• Troop numbers are declining. From 650,000 in 2020, the military has shrunk to 450,000 this year.
• Concerns over a “manpower cliff” are emerging. Shortages of soldiers have forced civilian personnel to stand guard, while K9 self-propelled howitzers remain idle due to a lack of operators—only 73% of operator positions are filled.
• By 2040, the military is projected to have 200,000 officers and 150,000 enlisted personnel. Even officer numbers are likely to shrink further: recruitment rates dropped from 94% in 2019 to 65% last year.
• North Korea maintains 1.28 million troops.
• Lee Jae-myung posted on Facebook, “Thinking that self-defense is impossible without foreign troops is a submissive mindset.” Sung Il-jong (People Power Party lawmaker) countered, “This sounds like a call to dismantle the ROK-U.S. alliance.” A presidential office official remarked, “The intent is to reorganize the military smartly.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Daegu ‘Yoon Again’ Rally Draws 70+ People Power Party Lawmakers.

• “We must finish Lee Jae-myung.” Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party leader) declared onstage.
• The rally drew 70,000 attendees by organizer estimates. Police counted 19,000.
• A Charlie Kirk flag also appeared.

The Fix.

Even 173.4% National Debt Ratio by 2065 Is Overly Optimistic.

• The Ministry of Economy and Finance analyzed that the national debt ratio could reach 156.3% by 2065, or up to 173.4% in the worst-case scenario, based on long-term fiscal projections.
• Yoon Seok-myeong (Senior Research Fellow at the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs) assessed it as “a rather optimistic forecast.”
• The National Assembly Budget Office had already projected the national debt ratio to reach 158.7% by 2060 and 185.7% by 2070—five years ago.
• The unfunded liability of the National Pension Service approaches 2,000 trillion won. This means the amount promised to be paid exceeds the accumulated funds by that much. Combined, the four major pensions surpass 3,000 trillion won.
• Related Link.

2050 Elderly Poverty Rate Report at 42% Vanishes.

• The National Pension Service Research Institute’s report. If current systems remain unchanged, elderly poverty rates will rise from 37.4% in 2025 to 42.3% by 2050.
• The report, drafted in December last year, was classified at the Ministry of Health and Welfare’s request but recently re-released following demands by Jeon Jong-deok (Progressive Party lawmaker) and others.
• Though a pension reform bill passed in March—raising premium rates from 9% to 13% and income replacement rates from 40% to 43%—subsequent discussions remain stalled.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

113 Dead Over Five Years at Top 10 Construction Firms.

• Daewoo Construction: 20 deaths, Hyundai Construction: 19, HDC Hyundai Industrial Development: 18, Hyundai Engineering: 14, POSCO E&C: 13.
• Jeong Joon-ho (Democratic Party lawmaker) emphasized, “Industrial safety investments must be viewed not as costs but as core assets determining the long-term competitiveness of the nation and corporations.”
• Related Link.

Industrial Accident Economic Losses Top 170 Trillion Won Over Five Years.

• This figure includes direct losses plus indirect costs such as production halts, accident aftereffects, and broader societal impacts. Indirect losses are calculated at four times direct losses.
• Workdays lost exceed 300 million days.

ICYMI.

Myeongdong Commerce Revives, Vacancy Rate Drops from 53% to 5%.

• Down to one-tenth of the second-quarter 2022 level.
• Myeongdong now has eight Olive Young stores. The Myeongdong Town branch ranks first in nationwide sales, with over 90% of payments made by foreigners.

Female Foreign Visitors Have Outnumbered Males Since 2009.

• 1.73 million foreigners visited Korea in July—23% more than last year and 19% higher than 2019.
• As of last year, 5.98 million male visitors and 9.25 million female visitors were recorded. The trend reversed starting in 2009.
• From January to July this year, male visitors totaled 6.44 million and female visitors 8.24 million.

60% of Foreign Students Struggle to Keep Pace with Korean-Language Instruction.

• Out of 145,757 students, only 50,283 can follow Korean-language courses, while 16,423 are eligible for English-taught courses. Statistics include graduate students.
• The Ministry of Education recommends TOPIK Level 3+ for admission and Level 4+ for graduation, but these are non-mandatory. TOPIK Level 4 signifies the ability to read and comprehend newspaper articles.
• Related Link.

From Ownership to Experience: Why Daiso Became a Beauty Trend.

• This is the era of experiential consumption. MA generation enjoys low-priced cosmetics in small quantities. The number of beauty brands in Daiso has grown to 100, with over 800 product varieties.
• A industry insider interviewed by Segye Ilbo said, “Daiso is no longer a space where ‘cheap equals poor quality’ but provides ‘rationality’ through collaborations with quality-verified brands.”
• Another expert predicted, “Daiso has a high potential to evolve into a brand-launching platform,” adding, “If this structure becomes established, it could trigger structural changes across the distribution industry.”
• Related Link.

Voice Phishing Losses to Exceed 1 Trillion Won This Year.

• 885.6 billion won as of August.
• Already surpassed last year’s annual total of 854.5 billion won.

Worth Reading.

The Success of the Lee Jae-myung Government Hinges on Breaking with the Mopiah.

• Jeon Seong-in (former Hongik University professor) believes the Lee Jae-myung government can only succeed by severing ties with the Mopiah (Ministry of Finance + Mafia).
• “The Mopiah acts as a proxy for state-controlled finance according to the incumbent’s preferences and shifts blame to the public. They are behind countless financial scandals: the 2002 credit card loan defaults, the 2011 savings bank crisis, and the 2020 Lime and Optimus incidents.”
• He also called the Financial Services Commission’s restructuring “one of the worst.” The power structure remains unchanged, with Mopiah officials still dominating—financial commissioners serve as mere bystanders while bureaucrats pull the strings.
• Jeon warns the Lee Jae-myung government is at high risk of succumbing to the allure of state-controlled finance. Though it attempted to reform the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the result was simply more positions.
• “When I heard, ‘Let’s collect an extra 0.1% interest from the wealthy,’ I thought, ‘He’ll end up shackled by bureaucrats.’ Excessive ambition to be a ‘good president’ makes leaders vulnerable to Mopiah capture. Normal policies won’t satisfy such ambition. That’s when the Mopiah whispers, ‘We’ll help you achieve your policy goals.’ And leaders fall for it—leaving the public to bear the cost.”
• Related Link.

Xenophobia Cannot Be Left Unchecked.

• Anti-Chinese protests have escalated to alarming levels. Beyond conspiracy theories claiming “China interfered in elections,” some now chant curses like “Heaven will destroy the CCP.”
• The UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination warned that “racist hate speech targeting Chinese people is persistently increasing.”
• Last year, Chinese visitors to South Korea numbered 4.63 million—the highest among foreign nationals.
• Germany, Canada, and New Zealand impose criminal penalties for inciting hatred based on nationality or race. Yoon Wan-joon (The Dong-A Ilbo columnist) noted, “It is time to concretely consider measures to eradicate xenophobia.”
• Related Link.

Trump Barks but Doesn’t Bite.

• Trump has stepped in, but the Russia-Ukraine war has not ended. He made loud promises to sanction Russia, but they were empty words.
• Even when Russia sent a drone to NATO member Poland—where it was intercepted—there was no meaningful response.
• Le Monde editorialized, “Europe must continue a Sisyphean effort against Trump.”
• Related Link.

Xi Jinping’s Inflection Point.

• The 80th anniversary of the Chinese People’s War of Resistance commemorations have shifted the landscape. It is a phase where Xi Jinping’s ambitions clash with Trump’s desires. Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is no longer the issue.
• Lee Hee-ok (Sungkyunkwan University professor) emphasized, “We must overcome the paradox that the more we mention denuclearization, the farther it recedes,” adding, “It is realistic to focus efforts on freezing North Korea’s nuclear program to reduce tensions, while keeping denuclearization as a long-term goal.”
• China is curious whether South Korea’s alliance modernization is aimed at them. Lee Hee-ok stressed the need to leverage Trump: “Korean Peninsula agendas must be included in U.S.-China dialogues.”
• Related Link.

The Gangster and the Tycoon’s Calculations Differ.

• The gangster is the U.S., the tycoon is Japan.
• Japan, which pledged $550 billion in investment, has deep pockets. It has currency swaps too. It can afford to secure tariff reductions first and stall for time.
• Kim Yang-hee (Daegu University professor) argues South Korea cannot follow Japan’s path. South Korea’s foreign reserves are less than a third of Japan’s, and its U.S. Treasury holdings are only one-tenth of Japan’s. Even if auto tariffs drop to 15%, contentious issues like steel, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals remain.
• “Whether Korea dies by Hanik or by Cheongmyeong, a cash-strapped Korea imitating Japan will face ruin. The same applies if hit by high-tariff bombs.”
• Kim Yang-hee insisted, “South Korea must dig in its heels with strategic manufacturing critical to the U.S., like shipbuilding, semiconductors, and nuclear power.” The long-term goal is to reduce dependence on the U.S. “Now is a time for strategic patience,” she emphasized.
• Related Link.