Starbucks’ “Tank Day”?

• Starbucks sparked massive backlash by creating a “Tank Day” event on the May 18th Democratic Uprising anniversary.
• The event insulted the history of tanks crushing citizens demanding democracy 46 years ago.
• The phrase “책상 위에 탁” (a desk-thumping sound) likely parodies the police’s infamous explanation of Park Jong-cheol’s (martyr) death: “We thumped the desk, and he suddenly died.”
• It was blatant mockery—too deliberate to dismiss as coincidence.
• Coincidentally, the tumbler’s capacity was 503ml—the inmate number of Park Geun-hye (former president) during her detention.

“The Lowest Form of Mercantile Provocation.”.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) unleashed a fierce critique on X.
• “A ‘5·18 Tank Day’ event that insults the sacrifices of Gwangju victims and the bloodstained struggles of citizens—this is the inhuman, rock-bottom behavior of crass profiteers who deny the values of community, basic human rights, and democracy in South Korea.”
• “How many innocent lives were unjustly taken that day, and how severely has justice and history been defiled? With what twisted motive could such an act be committed? There must be moral, administrative, legal, and political accountability.”
• At the 5·18 memorial ceremony in Gwangju, he stated, “I will do everything possible to ensure the spirit of 5·18 is enshrined in the preamble of the Constitution.”
• Related Link.

Jung Yong-jin’s Tail-Cutting.

• As the controversy grew, Shinsegae dismissed Son Jeong-hyun (SCK Company CEO) and hastily issued a statement: “Jung Yong-jin (Chairman of Shinsegae Group) was enraged and personally ordered severe disciplinary action against those responsible.”
• Jung Yong-jin previously led controversies such as the “Destroy the Beans” campaign. Questions arise: could such marketing have occurred without top-level approval?
• Starbucks Korea is a major subsidiary, with Shinsegae Group’s E-Mart holding 67.5% of its shares. It pays 5% of sales in royalties to the U.S. headquarters.
• With 2,114 stores in South Korea, it ranks third globally—behind only the U.S. and China.

What Matters Now.

Partial Injunction Granted in Samsung Electronics Union Strike Case.

• Samsung’s injunction request to ban union labor disputes was partially accepted.
• Suwon District Court ruled, “Operations must not be disrupted beyond normal levels of workforce, operating hours, or production scale.”
• Essential personnel amount to about 7,000 workers, representing roughly 9% of all production lines.
• The union argued, “Facilities can operate with weekend-level staffing, so a strike involving 40,000 participants poses no obstruction.”
• Related Link.

Lee Jae-myung Also Mentions Emergency Mediation Powers.

• In a post on X, he warned, “We cannot rule out any possible response measures, including emergency mediation.”
• Samsung Electronics’ labor and management agreed to continue mediation talks until today.
• No compromise has yet been reached.
• The company proposed an additional 9–10% payout if operating profits exceed 200 trillion won, under the condition that annual raises are capped at 50%.
• The union demands the 50% cap be abolished and a 15% payout be explicitly guaranteed.
• Related Link.

Is the 100 Trillion Won Damage Claim Accurate?

• Kim Min-seok (Prime Minister) made the statement, but it should be viewed as a damage estimate based on the worst-case scenario.
• The Bank of Korea previously analyzed that the maximum damage from the Samsung Electronics strike could reach 30 trillion won.
• Direct comparisons are difficult, but the 2018 Pyeongtaek plant power outage caused approximately 2.6 trillion won in losses from a single day of halted operations.
• Lee Jong-hwan (Sangmyung University Professor) noted, “Even if a strike occurs, it is likely to proceed as a limited one.”

“If You Do Not Resist, That Is Treason.”.

• Kim Young-hoon (Minister of Labor) spoke these words during a railway union strike a decade ago when he was the union’s chairman.
• Positions have since reversed.
• Kim Min-seok (Prime Minister) stated, “We cannot rule out any response measures, including emergency mediation,” with Kim Young-hoon standing directly beside him.

Deep Dive.

Five Major Banks’ Special Bonds: 27 Trillion Won.

• It has been revealed that these bonds have been pursued for over 20 years even after losses were written off, involving 610,000 debtors.
• Delinquent bonds typically expire after five years, but the banks have extended the statute of limitations by issuing payment orders or encouraging partial repayments.
• Lee In-young (Democratic Party lawmaker) pointed out, “We must verify whether debt adjustments and statute of limitations management are being effectively implemented.”
• Related Link.

Shareholder Returns at 69% for Seven Bank Holding Companies.

• All bank holding companies except Woori Financial saw their capital ratios decline.
• The narrative is that shareholders are being rewarded while fundamentals weaken.
• Kim Tae-hyun (Head of Financial Evaluation at Korea Corporate Ratings) stated, “Excessive shareholder returns without corresponding profit growth can weaken the group’s overall fundamentals,” adding, “It is time to shift focus from scale competition to balancing capital strength and financial stability, prioritizing sustainability over shareholder returns.”
• Related Link.

“Why There Was No Second ‘DeepSeek Moment’.”.

• When DeepSeek V3 was released last January, the shock was comparable to the 1957 Sputnik crisis.
• Fifteen months later, DeepSeek V4 arrived—but the atmosphere was different. While it still demonstrated overwhelming cost-effectiveness, its performance lagged far behind Claude or ChatGPT’s top-tier models.
• Jeon Byung-seo (Director of the China Economic and Financial Research Institute) analyzed, “The nature of the game has changed.”
• First, the key point is that it designed AI without Nvidia chips at 1/20th the cost. This is no time for mockery—it’s the Temu of the AI world.
• Second, it used DRAM instead of HBM. The surge in memory prices is partly why. South Korea has become the biggest beneficiary of U.S.-China trade tensions.
• Third, China is closing the gap. While they still rely on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix now, they could catch up within three years.
• Jeon Byung-seo forecasted that the next cycle could be even bigger. It’s time not just to focus on semiconductors but to build an entirely new ecosystem. “Don’t stop at 500 trillion won—it’s time to discuss how to create 5,000 trillion won,” he emphasized.
• Related Link.

Another Take.

Samsung Station Rebar Omission Dispute.

• It has emerged as a key issue in the Seoul mayoral election. Half of the required rebar was missing from columns in the basement level 5 platform of the GTX transfer center.
• The construction company, Hyundai Engineering & Construction, reported this to Seoul City—but the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport was unaware.
• Seoul City first received the report in November last year. The city claims it informed the Korea National Railway and the ministry, but the railway agency countered, “The report did not mention the rebar omission.”
• In an editorial, Kyunghyang Shinmun questioned, “Could it be that Oh Se-hoon (Seoul Mayor) sought to downplay the fallout ahead of the local elections?” adding, “Seoul’s closed-door handling cannot be justified under any circumstances.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Unification White Paper: “Transition to Two Peaceful States.”.

• Emphasized inter-Korean cooperation while reducing focus on North Korean human rights issues.
• The Ministry of Unification explained, “Considering the reality that the two Koreas effectively exist as separate states, we aim to build inter-Korean relations that peacefully coexist while still pursuing unification.”
• The Korea JoongAng Daily editorial criticized, “It is hard to accept that inter-Korean relations are being arbitrarily defined according to the minister’s personal beliefs.”

Slapped in China, Taking It Out on Iran?

• Donald Trump (U.S. President) is being criticized for returning empty-handed from his trip to China.
• Speculation swirls that the U.S. and Israel are preparing military operations against Iran. On Truth Social, he posted, “Time is running short.” For now, Tuesday’s attack has been postponed.
• The UAE’s Barakah nuclear plant was also hit by a drone attack suspected to have originated from Iran.
• Related Link.

Disgusted? Heartbroken?

• People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyeok attended the May 18 memorial ceremony, but floor leader Song Eun-seok did not.
• When asked by reporters, Song said, “I don’t know what situation might arise, so I’m not going because I’m disgusted.”
• As controversy grew, Song clarified, “It wasn’t because I was disgusted—it was because I was heartbroken.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

The Fix.

Time to Consider Abolishing Party Nominations in Local Elections?

• Local elections where voters choose based on party affiliation—is this the best approach?
• Shin Chul-hee (Research Fellow at Gyeonggi Research Institute) pointed out, “If abolishing nominations is too difficult for now, parties should at least minimize their intervention in candidate selection.”

Wet Wipes Don’t Dissolve in Water.

• Even biodegradable products are no different. There are no standards or certification systems to begin with, so even if something is labeled as biodegradable, there’s no way to verify if it truly is.
• A Kangwon National University study found that even after soaking biodegradable wet wipes for 10 minutes, less than 5% dissolved. Most claims are exaggerated.
• Ban Ki-woong (Kyeonghyang Shinmun reporter) pointed out, “Even as regulatory discussions stall, wet wipes continue to clog sewage pipes, fragment into microplastics, and seep into rivers.”
• Related Link.

Han River Belt Decides Seoul Mayor’s Fate.

• Chosun Ilbo’s analysis. Real estate issues have emerged as the top priority. Jeong Won-o (Democratic Party candidate) leads among 4050s and in Gangbuk, while Oh Se-hoon (People Power Party candidate) is ahead among 2030s and in Gangnam’s three districts. The race remains tight within the margin of error.
• Oh emphasizes private-sector leadership, while Jeong insists on combining public and private approaches.
• In Busan, Jeon Jae-soo (Democratic Party candidate) leads outside the margin of error, while the gap in Daegu has narrowed significantly, according to the analysis.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

KOSPI 10,000-Point Scenario.

• According to FN Guide consensus, KOSPI’s estimated net profit for this year is 680 trillion won, projected to rise to 850 trillion won next year. Forecasts continue to be revised upward.
• Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix dominate, but even excluding them, profits are expected to grow over 25%.
• Since 2010, the KOSPI’s average P/E ratio (price-to-earnings) has been 9.96x. As of May 18, the P/E ratio stands at 7.95x—a low ratio implies stocks are undervalued relative to earnings.
• If next year’s net profit is priced in now, KOSPI’s market cap would reach 8,499 trillion won, translating to an index of 10,380 points.
• J.P. Morgan raised its KOSPI target to 9,000. Morgan Stanley forecasted a year-end KOSPI range of 6,500–9,500. Goldman Sachs also lifted its upper target to 9,000.
• Short-term corrections are possible. Foreign investors have sold nearly 100 trillion won in stocks this year, yet their stake has paradoxically increased to 40%. This suggests profit-taking rather than a market exit.

ICYMI.

Era of 5% U.S. Treasury Yields.

• 30-year bonds hit 5.12%—the highest since the 2007 global financial crisis. 10-year yields stand at 4.6%.
• Higher rates increase borrowing costs, dampening consumption and investment. The risk of asset price bubbles deflating also grows.
• In an editorial, Hankook Ilbo warned, “The government’s aggressive fiscal stance could further destabilize prices.”
• Related Link.

Malta’s Experiment: Free ChatGPT Pro for All Citizens.

• At $20 per person for 550,000 citizens, the annual cost would be $132 million.
• Malta’s GDP per capita is around $46,000. It’s not just providing accounts—AI education is included. The goal is to become an AI hub.

Employees Earning More Than Executives.

• This year, SK Hynix’s operating profit consensus is 25.3 trillion won. If 10% is paid as performance bonuses as promised, 34,549 employees would receive around 730 million won each.
• SK Hynix’s average compensation for non-registered executives is 900 million won. Employee salaries may now match or even exceed those of executives.
• That’s why promotions to executive roles are being avoided at SK Hynix these days. Overseas postings, which exclude eligibility for performance bonuses, have also become unpopular departments.
• Related Link.

Worth Reading.

Does Lee Jae-yong Have Bargaining Will?

• He apologized to the public but has yet to engage in negotiations. Yang Seung-hoon (Kyungnam University Professor) questioned, “I doubt there’s genuine willingness to sufficiently dialogue with stakeholders.”
• “In Korea, where company-level bargaining is institutionalized rather than central or industry-wide negotiations, it’s unfair to burden only Samsung Electronics’ union with responsibility,” the commentary added.
• Related Link.

Jeong Won-o’s Caution as a Wealthy Candidate.

• Kim Hoe-kyung (Political Affairs Bureau Chief, Hankook Ilbo) criticized, “It’s not just a lack of challenger-like vigor—it’s seen as ‘caution from a wealthy candidate’ merely replicating establishment politics.” This refers to Jeong Won-o (Democratic Party Seoul mayoral candidate) agreeing to a single TV debate.
• “The Democratic Party might think, ‘Hold on for half a month, and we’ll win.’ By pushing the ‘sedition settlement’ frame, they aim to mobilize a slightly relaxed progressive base to the polls while blocking any pretext for the opposition’s attacks or conservative consolidation. The irony is that this approach hinders the ‘competent worker’ candidate’s own bid to showcase his competitiveness.”
• Related Link.

Do Not Underestimate Taiwan.

• Gideon Rachman (Financial Times columnist) projected, “Taiwan’s independence has a high chance of success regardless of U.S. support.”
• Ukraine has resisted Russia for over four years, and Iran has not collapsed easily. Conquering Taiwan could cost China enormous sacrifices. Taiwan is the world’s 20th-largest economy and produces 90% of global semiconductors.
• If China blocks Taiwan, global supply chains would face massive shocks—and other nations might side with Taiwan.
• Related Link.