“Ending Sooner Than Expected,” Netanyahu’s Remarks Lift Stocks.

• “Iran no longer has the capability to enrich uranium,” he said.
• International oil prices spiked then reversed, while U.S. markets rebounded: the S&P 500 fell 0.3% and Nasdaq rose 1.0%.
• Najib Mikati (Lebanese Prime Minister) stated, “We are ready to negotiate with Israel.”
• Iran struck the UAE more than Israel, while Israel focused attacks not only on Iran but also Lebanon. Lebanese deaths total 968.
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Attack on Oil Facilities Crosses a Red Line.

• Benjamin Netanyahu’s (Israeli Prime Minister) words cannot be taken at face value.
• Yesterday, Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars gas field. Iran also struck Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas facilities and Saudi Arabia’s Jubail chemical complex. There are dominant forecasts that the conflict could easily spread across the Middle East, and even if the war ends immediately, it will take significant time to restore production levels.
• South Korea imports 10 million tons of LNG annually from Qatar. It is the largest importer of LNG from Qatar.
• Donald Trump (U.S. President) requested Netanyahu to refrain from attacks: “We get along well. But when he does something I don’t like, I tell him. That’s not acceptable.”
• Israel has announced a temporary halt to attacks.
• Jerome Powell (Federal Reserve Chair) warned, “We are facing an energy shock of unknown scale and duration.” The possibility of interest rate hikes is also being discussed.
• The Bank of Korea has limited options. It is highly likely to freeze interest rates.
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What Matters Now.

U.S. Marine Corps’ Potential Landing Operation on Kharg Island.

• Three scenarios are being discussed.
• First, there is a possibility of attempting negotiations after seizing the oil facilities on Kharg Island. In this case, Iran would shut the pipelines connected to Kharg Island, effectively halting all oil supplies.
• Second, there is also a possibility of attacking coastal areas near the Strait of Hormuz. Missile and drone attacks launched from inland cannot be completely blocked.
• Third, a special forces operation to seize nuclear material is possible, but the success rate is low.
• Trump said, “We will not deploy troops anywhere,” but it cannot be trusted. The U.S. Marine Corps is arriving in the Strait of Hormuz soon.
• Related Link.

Exchange Rate Hits 1,501 Won.

• The highest level since the financial crisis.
• The Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Technology analyzed that if the Hormuz blockade continues for over three months, average manufacturing production costs in South Korea would rise by 11.8%.
• While official reserves claim over 200 days of oil stockpiles, some experts note that at the current consumption rate, reserves would deplete in about 60 days.
• In an editorial, Kyunghyang Shinmun pointed out, “There is a need to actively pursue imports of Russian crude oil and naphtha, now free from U.S. sanctions.”
• Related Link.

LNG Reserves Won’t Last Ten Days.

• Though Middle East dependence is only 20%, storage at below -163°C makes long-term stockpiling difficult. The issue isn’t reserves—it’s price instability.
• Immediate supply disruptions are unlikely, but the risk of sharp price hikes is high. If the Strait of Hormuz blockade extends beyond three months, forecasts suggest LNG prices could surge by 200%.
• South Korea generates 30% of its electricity from LNG.

Has the U.S. War Chest Run Dry?

• The U.S. Department of Defense plans to request a $200 billion supplemental budget from Congress. It implies they expect the war to drag on.
• Congressional approval is unlikely. Many White House aides oppose the move.
• According to the Washington Post, the U.S. spent $11 billion in the first week of the war.
• Avril Haines (Director of National Intelligence) stated, “Only the president can determine what constitutes an imminent threat.”
• Travis Kent (Director of the National Counterterrorism Center) noted, “A significant number of key decision-makers were not permitted to present their views to the president.”
• Related Link.

A Family Tragedy: Filicide and Suicide Suspected.

• In Ulsan, a father and four minor children were found dead. A suicide note read, “It’s too hard to raise the kids alone.” The cause of death is presumed to be carbon monoxide poisoning.
• Discovered after the elementary school teacher of the first-grade daughter reported the absence. The father was unemployed, and the mother was in detention.
• The school made three home visits after reports of suspected child neglect but failed to make contact.
• Warning signs had existed for a year. The family was flagged as vulnerable due to unpaid health insurance premiums. They bought instant noodles on credit at a local store and repaid days later. Most concerning, the eldest daughter—a first grader—stopped attending school. Though the school reported to 112, police found no evidence of abuse.
• They received emergency livelihood support last year but never applied for basic livelihood benefits. Despite guidance from Ulju County officials, they refused welfare applications.
• Yang Byung-jun (Secretary-General of Jeonbuk Hope Sharing Foundation) stated, “Swift, proactive early intervention is essential. Welfare systems must shift to actively reach out.” Lee Hwa-young (Professor at Soonchunhyang University Medical School) emphasized, “Integrated systems are needed to provide both financial aid and mental health support to families in crisis.”
• Related Link.
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Deep Dive.

Not the Time to Cut Oil Prices.

• This is an IEA (International Energy Agency) recommendation. Even if the war ends, significant time may be required to restore production facilities. Bloomberg warned, “A second price surge is possible.”
• South Korea’s energy consumption is 5.4 TOE per capita. Japan’s is 3.2 TOE, and the OECD average is 3.3 TOE.
• While gasoline prices appear stable due to the price cap, international oil prices have surpassed $136 per barrel (Dubai crude). Brent crude is at $107, and West Texas Intermediate is at $95.
• Critics note, “The price cap is regressive, as it uses public transit users’ taxes to subsidize private vehicle fuel costs.”
• Chosun Ilbo pointed out, “Rather than suppress prices to maintain consumption, the best crisis response is to reduce oil use through national pain-sharing and a state-led conservation campaign.”
• Related Link.
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Constitutional Amendment Proposed Without the People Power Party.

• They agreed to include the spirit of the May 18th Uprising and the Bu-Ma Democratic Uprising in the constitutional preamble.
• The amendment can be proposed without the People Power Party, but it cannot pass without their support to meet the quorum.
• Song Eun-seok (People Power Party Floor Leader) said, “The constitution is the fundamental framework of state governance, so it must be approached with gravity, caution, and proper procedure.” He dismissed it as “an election-driven event.”
• Related Link.

Prosecution Office Bill Tabled, People Power Party Launches Filibuster.

• The Democratic Party plans to force a vote after 24 hours, pass it, and immediately table the Corruption Investigation Office bill.
• There are two major issues.
• First, apart from stripping prosecutors of investigative power, there is no mechanism to control the police. There are also criticisms that the authority of special judicial police (SJP) is excessive.
• Second, granting the Minister of the Interior and Safety command and oversight of the Corruption Investigation Office would allow the president to manipulate investigations.
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Another Take.

“Dismissal Equals Death? We Must Embrace Labor Market Flexibility.”.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) said this at a debate marking the first anniversary of the Economic, Social, and Labor Council.
• “Workers think, ‘Dismissal is death,’ while companies, once they hire regular workers, can’t touch them, so they avoid regular hires altogether, opting for non-regular workers or subcontracting. It’s a vicious cycle that inevitably leads to extreme conflict.”
• Lee’s proposal: guarantee labor market flexibility for businesses while strengthening social safety nets—and making companies bear the cost.
• The Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU) did not attend the debate, though the Federation of Korean Trade Unions (FKTU) did.
• Kim Dong-myeong (FKTU Chairman) argued, “Employment is not rigid—layoffs and restructuring via personnel pressure occur frequently,” adding, “Social safety nets cannot resolve this.”
• The average age of retirement from one’s longest-held job was 49.4 in 2024—0.6 years younger than two decades ago.
• Park Myung-jun (Korea Labor Institute Research Fellow) noted, “Rather than hasty grand compromises, it’s essential to build shared understanding and establish a clear direction.”
• Related Link.
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“Irresponsible Media More Frightening Than a Weapon.”.

• The Supreme Court ruled that the allegations linking Lee Jae-myung (President) to organized crime were false. The reports were published by SBS and others during the 2022 election.
• The Blue House announced plans to exercise its right to demand corrective coverage. Lee Kyu-yeon (Blue House Senior Secretary for Public Communication) noted, “The original reports still circulate, distorting public perception, yet almost no media outlet has issued proper corrections.”

Falling Home Prices Spread Along the Han River Belt.

• Prices have dropped from Gangnam’s three districts to Yongsan, Gangdong, Seongdong, and Dongjak.
• Listings are also increasing. According to real estate platform Aseel, there were 78,077 properties on the market on the 19th—the highest since September last year.
• Nam Hyuk-woo (Woori Bank researcher) analyzed, “Properties are piling up as multi-homeowners sell and even demand-driven buyers, aiming to upgrade to Gangnam, are offloading.” The outlook is for prices to continue adjusting.
• Across Seoul, the upward trend has slowed for seven consecutive weeks. Prices are still rising, but barely.
• Related Link.

Rising Home Prices as an Achievement? Criticism Pours on Jeong Won-o.

• An intra-party debate among Democratic Party’s Seoul mayoral primary candidates was held.
• Jeon Hyeon-hee (Democratic Party lawmaker) criticized, “If the Seoul mayor’s real estate policy philosophy diverges from the government’s, it will create discord.”
• Park Ju-min (Democratic Party lawmaker) also pointed out, “I’ve never seen anyone claim rising home prices as an achievement.”
• Jeong Won-o (Seongdong District Mayor) responded, “I meant that revitalizing local priority projects raises residents’ happiness and the area’s value.”

Chosun Ilbo Raided Over False Report on Yang Hoe-dong Self-Immolation.

• The incident occurred in May 2023. Yang Hoe-dong (Kangwon Regional Branch Chief of the Construction Workers’ Union) self-immolated, calling for an end to union suppression. Chosun Ilbo published CCTV footage claiming colleagues did not intervene—a claim later proven false.
• Police raided Chosun Ilbo’s offices, belatedly reinvestigating the case nearly three years later.

The Fix.

Why Has Shortening the Stock Settlement Cycle Been Delayed?

• Lee Jae-myung (President) asked, “Why does it take until the day after tomorrow to receive money when I sold stocks today?” In the U.S. and India, payments are made the next business day.
• Shorter settlement cycles would reduce risks for brokerages, which previously had to cover price fluctuations between transaction and settlement dates by posting margin. From investors’ perspective, it would also diminish incentives for buying on margin.
• Concerns persist that foreign investors might avoid the Korean market due to time zone disparities.
• Related Link.

Do Divorce TV Shows Really Reduce Korea’s Divorce Rate?

• That’s the Wall Street Journal’s analysis. “At least I’m better off than them,” goes the reasoning—people endure marriages after watching.
• While dramas like ‘Good Partner’ (about divorce lawyers) or variety shows like ‘Divorce Consideration Camp’ might explain some interest, this could be overinterpretation.
• First, fewer marriages post-pandemic likely reduced divorces. Since divorces often occur early in marriage, fewer newlyweds mean fewer divorces.
• Lee Sam-sik (Hanyang University professor) analyzed, “Marriage now brings more economic benefits—housing subsidies, etc.—compared to the past. Conversely, divorce costs are steep: child support, living expenses, housing—these factors likely make couples think twice.”
• Korea’s marriage rate is 4.4 per 1,000 people; divorce rate is 1.8 per 1,000. Compared to the U.S., the divorce rate is three-fourths as high.
• Related Link.
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ICYMI.

Incheon-Jeju Domestic Route Launched.

• Flights could begin as early as May. Travelers can fly directly from Incheon Airport to Jeju without transiting through Gimpo.
• This year’s flight schedule has been announced. Domestic routes will operate 1,806 flights across 20 routes, while international routes will see 4,820 flights across 245 routes—a 0.8% increase.

Banks’ Interest Income Hits 60.4 Trillion Won.

• Net profit reached 24.1 trillion won. Both figures are record-breaking.
• Net interest margin (NIM) fell by 0.06 percentage points, but interest-earning assets grew by 4.6% to 3,442 trillion won.

Worth Reading.

Asset Gaps Become Intelligence Gaps.

• AI seems accessible to anyone who can pay, but its utilization varies widely.
• Kim Hoe-seung (Hankyoreh Columnist) warned, “Parents’ financial power may lead to disparities in AI accessibility.” The point is that even if Korea becomes a top-three AI power, polarization and inequality won’t automatically resolve.
• Related Link.

What If Only Two Candidates Apply for Two Seats?

• In the last local elections, 53% of district council elections were two-seat constituencies.
• If smaller parties don’t field candidates, one seat each typically goes to the Democratic Party and People Power Party—or one party takes both. Of 2,988 district council seats, the two major parties won 2,819, with 409 unopposed victories.
• The last election piloted 3–5-seat multi-member districts in 30 constituencies. The Democratic Party and People Power Party won 105 of 109 seats, but the key point was that smaller parties secured 4 seats. These areas also saw more minor-party nominations.
• Park Young-hwan (Kyunghyang Shinmun Political International Editor) suggested, “If sweeping change is difficult, gradual reform isn’t bad.”
• Related Link.

Beware of YouTube’s Political Capture Potential.

• America’s Fox News-Republican Party relationship is a cautionary tale. Trump’s habit of transcribing Fox News anchors’ messages on Truth Social has been called a Fox-White House feedback loop. While it seems Trump is choosing, Fox might actually be steering him.
• Kim Eo-jun’s relationship with the Democratic Party isn’t that extreme but raises concerns. Hong Won-sik (Dongduk Women’s University professor) noted, “The personal ties between YouTube channels and politicians—or their direct mobilization power—are bypassing public oversight mechanisms and directly influencing party decisions.”
• Regarding recent prosecution withdrawal allegations, the Democratic Party’s decision to sue Jang In-su (former MBC reporter) while excluding Kim Eo-jun (Ddanzi Ilbo CEO) or News Factory marks a departure from past responses to similar cases.
• Hong Won-sik stated, “A party’s view of media reflects its attitude toward democracy,” adding, “The Democratic Party must fundamentally reexamine its media philosophy and relationship with new media.”
• Related Link.