Securing an Additional 18 Million Barrels from the UAE.

• Combined with the 6 million barrels secured last week, the total reaches 24 million barrels.
• South Korea’s daily oil consumption is 2.8 million barrels. With reserves of around 190 million barrels, the country could endure for nearly 80 days.

Naphtha is the Key.

• Called the “rice of petrochemicals.” Naphtha is separated during crude oil refining—half is produced domestically, half is imported. 54% of imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
• With only 2–3 weeks of naphtha inventory left, South Korea is considering resuming Russian imports. In 2021, it imported 57.64 million barrels, but this halted after the Russia-Ukraine war.

Yuan Transactions Guarantee Safe Passage.

• Iran’s condition is unique: safe passage is guaranteed for countries trading in yuan, including India and Pakistan.
• Observers suggest this challenges the petrodollar system—an attempt to crack the dollar’s dominance.
• Over 80% of global oil transactions are settled in dollars.

What Matters Now.

“Why Does It Take Two Days to Get Money After Selling Stocks Today?”.

• It was a proposal by Lee Jae-myung (President). Jeong Eun-bo (Korea Exchange Chairman) said, “We plan to change to T+1 starting next October.”
• The KOSDAQ market will be divided into Tier 1 and Tier 2. Companies can move between tiers based on growth stage.
• Overlapping listings of subsidiaries will be prohibited. Lee Jae-myung pointed out, “It’s like buying a pregnant cow and finding the calf’s owner is someone else.” The comment referred to cases like LG Energy Solution that need to be prevented.

Recovering 200,000 Electrons and 1 Million Nicks.

• KOSPI has returned to the 2,600 threshold. It surged 5.0%, triggering a buy-side circuit breaker.
• The NVIDIA Technology Conference effect. Market anxiety is easing.
• Jensen Huang (NVIDIA CEO) initially forecast $1 trillion in annual revenue by late next year, then raised it. The projection doesn’t include Rubin’s successor, the next-generation “Feynman,” suggesting further growth potential. The decision to export H200 to China signals the market will expand even more.

Jeong Cheong-rae: “I Was in Sync with the President.”.

• Spoken the day after the prosecution and anti-corruption bill agreement was finalized, during an appearance on Kim Eo-jun’s News Factory. He used the phrase “이심전심” (telepathy). “We communicated at the level of direct dialogue with the president,” he emphasized.
• “Some articles seemed to scold me, written with ‘뇌피셜’ (unfounded speculation),” he said. “I understand it as criticism that we didn’t communicate sufficiently with the party.”
• Regarding the decision to retain the prosecutor general title, he said, “We can just call them ‘public prosecution bureau chiefs.’”
• A Democratic Party lawmaker met by Kyunghyang Shinmun said, “Lawmakers are riding Kim Eo-jun’s popularity, amplifying his influence—if you’re a party leader, shouldn’t you avoid appearing on his show?” Another lawmaker said, “Kim Eo-jun calls people who already agree with him, mostly Jeong Cheong-rae’s circle.”
• A Democratic Party lawmaker interviewed by The Hankyoreh said, “Jeong Cheong-rae seems to think Kim Eo-jun did nothing wrong,” adding, “Party members keep sending messages criticizing his media appearances.”
• Jeong Cheong-rae explained, “When I tried to revise Article 45 of the anti-corruption bill, (the Blue House) suggested removing it entirely. I was debating how to tone it down when they said, ‘Just delete it.’”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Deep Dive.

“I’ve Never Seen Him This Angry.”.

• Trump’s close ally Lindsey Graham (U.S. Senator) posted on X.
• Trump’s erratic behavior is growing concerning.
• On the 14th, he said, “Other countries will send warships.” On the 15th, “They must come to help.” On the 16th, “Active countries are coming.” But no one arrived.
• On the 17th, he claimed, “No help is needed,” then called it a “loyalty test.”
• He continues to vacillate, insisting, “Only surrender or death,” while also saying, “I’ll end it when I feel military goals are achieved.”
• The EU and NATO are distancing themselves. The only exit is a U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement and normalization of the Strait of Hormuz.
• The New York Times analyzed, “The only variable is financial markets and U.S. public opinion.” If other countries side with the U.S., the war could drag on. Some argue that letting oil prices surge—a drastic measure—might end the war faster.
• Seyyed Marandi (Professor at the University of Tehran), interviewed by the World Daily, warned, “If South Korea dispatches warships, it will be seen as hostile action.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Rarizani Was the Only Channel for Dialogue.

• Ali Larizani (Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council) died, further complicating the war.
• Hardliners’ influence will grow, and backchannel negotiations will become even more difficult, according to forecasts.

Will Kim Bu-gyeom and Lee Jin-suk Clash?

• Candidates must relocate their official address by the 3rd of next month to run for Daegu mayor.
• Kim Bu-gyeom (former Prime Minister) has emerged as the leading contender in the Democratic Party.
• The People Power Party is backing Lee Jin-suk (former Chair of the Korea Communications Commission). Figures like Joo Ho-young (People Power Party lawmaker) and Choo Kyung-ho (People Power Party lawmaker) are eyeing the race, but Lee Jung-hyun (People Power Party election strategy chief) has requested, “Please make way for younger candidates.”
• According to the Korea Times and others, Kim Bu-gyeom has made up his mind. The word is that he will soon announce his candidacy.

Another Take.

Youth Unemployment at 7.7%.

• Youth employment rate has declined for 22 consecutive months. The number of employed individuals in their 20s has decreased by 160,000 over the past year. The rate of decline in 20s employment is twice as fast as the rate of population decline in the same age group.
• The number of “resting” individuals aged 15–29 has risen to 490,000. The unemployed in this age group total 290,000.
• Related Link.

Lowering the Juvenile Offender Age to 13? Prisons Aren’t the Solution.

• “The overwhelming majority of citizens seem to think the minimum age should be lowered by at least one year,” was Lee Jae-myung (President)’s proposal. A debate hosted by the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family was held yesterday.
• Juvenile offenders under the age of criminal responsibility refer to boys aged 10–13. They are not subject to criminal punishment but receive protective measures under the Juvenile Act. Over the past decade, cases involving such offenders have nearly tripled, with theft, violence, and molestation accounting for the majority. Thefts at unmanned stores were particularly common.
• While some criticize the system for granting impunity, juvenile detention does not result in a criminal record, and juvenile facility sentences are by no means lighter than criminal penalties.
• Kang Soyoung (Konkuk University professor) emphasized, “Prioritizing early intervention and enhancing the effectiveness of rehabilitation through probation, treatment programs, and community-based correctional systems must come first.”
• The Hankyoreh editorial pointed out, “The stigmatizing effects of social isolation and the risk of learning criminal behavior may outweigh the deterrent effect of punishment.” Denmark lowered its age of criminal responsibility from 15 to 14 but later reversed the decision.
• In 2024, the juvenile offender rate stands at 848 per 100,000 people. Among 61,729 juvenile offenders, 20,814 were under the age of criminal responsibility.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

The Fix.

AI as Opportunity: A 4.5-Day Workweek Without Wage Cuts.

• Kim Young-hoon (Minister of Employment and Labor) pointed out, “We must abandon the harmful frame that labels unions as forces resisting innovation and capital as groups obsessed with greed.” In an interview with The Korea Herald, he emphasized, “Recognizing that workers are also consumers and taxpayers is essential for capital’s sustainability.”
• The analogy that “Atlas can produce an Avante but won’t buy or drive it” is particularly apt. The critical challenge is how to share the added value created by AI and data with society as a whole.
• Kim Young-hoon identifies three keywords for reducing working hours.
• First, workers’ right to health. We work to live, not live to work.
• Second, wages. Reducing working hours increases hourly wages.
• Third, productivity innovation and job sharing. AI can be the means to achieve this.
• Related Link.

First National Pension Enrollment Support: Only for Applicants.

• Enrolling early allows for later top-ups. Naturally, the longer the contribution period, the higher the pension.
• That’s why it became a quiet trend for parents to enroll their children as voluntary members when they turn 18. Now, Lee Jae-myung (President) has proposed covering the first premium.
• Support was set at 42,000 won per person for those born in 2009 and later, but due to youth resistance to mandatory enrollment, it was made an opt-in system. The budget of 18.9 billion won may shrink.
• Related Link.

Government to Subsidize 200,000 Won Monthly Rent for Youth.

• 60,000 people will be selected. The target group is non-homeowners aged 19–34 living separately from their parents.
• Median income must be 60% or less, with assets not exceeding 122 million won.
• The support period is up to two years.
• Related Link.

ICYMI.

BTS×Netflix.

• Netflix is expanding its live events.
• Its stance of not broadcasting sports has also changed. It has secured rights for WWE (American professional wrestling) and MLB (Major League Baseball), among others.
• The January Sky Scraper Live event was watched by 6.7 million people. It live-streamed an event where a person scaled a Taipei, Taiwan, skyscraper barehanded.
• For BTS, choosing Netflix over YouTube is a strategy to elevate the event to a global scale. Netflix covered part of the promotion and production costs.
• Traffic will be controlled near the Gwanghwamun performance venue starting at 9 PM on Friday.

Call the National Pension Service: “Stop NU’EST’s Minhyun from Leaving.”.

• Phones are ringing off the hook. As the National Pension Service is a major shareholder in HYBE, fans are demanding it voice an opinion at the shareholders’ meeting. It’s a K-pop version of the stewardship code, so to speak.
• Kim Sung-joo (CEO of the National Pension Service) drew a line: “The National Pension Service invests in countless companies but does not intervene in individual corporate management or personnel matters.” “Naturally, it does not meddle in the formation or member composition of K-pop groups,” he added.
• Kim later posted on Facebook, “It was an opportunity to reconsider what role the National Pension Service plays as an institution.”
• Related Link.

Yang Moon-seok Abandons Constitutional Appeal.

• Yang Moon-seok (former Democratic Party lawmaker), who lost his seat after receiving a 1 year and 6 month prison sentence suspended for 3 years, has decided not to pursue a constitutional appeal.
• Candidates for the Ansan Gap by-election include Kim Nam-guk (Democratic Party spokesperson) and Kim Yong (former deputy director of the Democratic Research Institute).

Drinking Less, Too.

• Some bars now charge entry fees. Draft beer is cheap at 300mL for 1,900 won, and fried snacks cost 900 won per piece. It’s a strategy to attract customers who want short first-round-only sessions.
• Company dinners are declining, as is average alcohol consumption. More pubs are switching to lunch buffets.
• Alcohol shipments dropped from 2.89 million kL in 2022 to 2.78 million kL in 2024.
• Choi Chul (Professor at Sookmyung Women’s University) said, “Post-COVID individualism, health-conscious trends, and economic stagnation have combined to spread a culture of drinking less.”
• Related Link.

One in Three Citizens Invests in Stocks.

• Statistics from the Korea Securities Depository. 14.56 million people own shares in 2,727 companies. The average number of holdings per person is six.
• Samsung Electronics alone has 4.61 million shareholders. Kakao follows with 1.6 million, SK Hynix with 1.18 million, Naver with 1.15 million, and Doosan Enerbility with 1.11 million.

Worth Reading.

Dropping Charges: A Hot Potato.

• The Ssangbangwool North Korea remittance case remains tangled. Prosecutors allegedly pressured a suspect to cooperate. It was later revealed that Kim Sung-tae (former Ssangbangwool chairman) said, “I want to say I gave money to Lee Jae-myung.”
• Jeong Je-hyeok (The Kyunghyang Shinmun columnist) pointed out, “What the Democratic Party should have demanded before dropping charges was a thorough investigation.” “In a situation where the alleged manipulation has not been clearly confirmed, hastily discussing dropping charges only amplifies the voices of those trying to frame it as a malicious narrative of prosecutorial and judicial reform for the president’s benefit.”
• “In such a sensitive issue with high potential for national division, principles and process management are crucial. The president should not receive special treatment, nor should they be unfairly harmed. The sequence of actions must also be correct. Only then can legitimacy build and public consensus broaden. If suspicions are confirmed, charges should be dropped. If not, they must not be. Until then, no presumptions or haste are acceptable.”
• Related Link.

Withdrawing the Demand to Drop Charges.

• The Democratic Party is pushing for a parliamentary investigation into the alleged prosecutorial manipulation of charges. Woo Won-shik (National Assembly Speaker) is also lending support.
• The Korea Daily criticized in an editorial, “The mere perception that the judicial system is being undermined for the president’s benefit is a self-inflicted disgrace for the government and ruling party,” adding, “The stronger they force the issue, the greater the backlash will inevitably be.”
• Related Link.