Strike on Vessels Passing Through Strait of Hormuz.

• At least four ships were attacked. The likelihood of Iranian involvement is high.
• Iran has been laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military sank 16 mine-laying vessels.
• Iran is reported to possess over 5,000 mines. Some analysts suggest the strait could be completely paralyzed once mines are deployed.
• Related Link.

Gasoline Price Cap Set at 1,800 Won.

• Introduced a maximum price system. Koo Yoon-cheol (Minister of Finance and Economy) stated, “We will operate it by monitoring market conditions every two weeks.”
• South Korea’s oil prices are linked to Singapore’s spot market prices. If the government sets a maximum price, it must compensate refiners for their losses.
• Extended fuel-linked subsidies for trucks and other vehicles.
• Gas prices have slightly dipped. As of March 11, gasoline and diesel were priced at 1,927 won and 1,904 won per liter, respectively.

Not Price Control, but Refinery Loss Compensation.

• Hankyoreh pointed out, “The fairness debate remains an unresolved task.”
• First, is it right to cover refiners’ losses with taxpayer money?
• Second, aren’t energy-intensive wealthy households disproportionately benefiting?
• Park Sung-hoon (People Power Party lawmaker) noted, “It’s like subway-riding commuters subsidizing Mercedes owners.”
• Koo Yoon-cheol said, “We are preparing a supplementary budget to support vulnerable groups and livelihoods harmed by rising oil prices.”
• The cherry blossom budget is said to reach 10 trillion won.
• Related Link.

What Matters Now.

Ending a War Is Not the Same as Winning It.

• Ending a war is far more difficult than starting one.
• Stopping without ousting Khamenei, replacing the regime, or completely destroying Iran’s attack capabilities is almost meaningless.
• With elections approaching, Republican lawmakers are unlikely to comply. The dismissal of Chris Nunez (Secretary of Homeland Security) was also due to pressure from Republican lawmakers. Immigration crackdowns, once a political asset for Trump, have become a liability.
• There are forecasts that if inflation isn’t controlled, the party could suffer a major defeat in the November midterm elections.
• Trump’s remark in an Axios interview—“It will end whenever I want it to”—could paradoxically mean it’s not going as smoothly as it seems.
• Caroline Leavitt (White House spokesperson) said, “We will end military operations when we determine that surrender is inevitable.” This implies the war could end without an explicit Iranian surrender.
• Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stated, “It will continue without time limits until all objectives are achieved and a decisive victory is secured in the operation.” This diverges from the U.S. stance.
• Colin Kahl (former U.S. Undersecretary of Defense) warned in a Foreign Affairs article, “If objectives are unclear, the war itself could become the goal.”
• In a New York Times poll, only 27% supported the attack on Iran.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

IEA Oil Release Hits Record High.

• IEA (International Energy Agency) has decided to release 400 million barrels of oil.
• This is far larger than the 180 million barrels released twice since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It reflects how seriously the situation is being viewed.
• The IEA’s total oil reserves amount to 1.2 billion barrels. Since its establishment in 1970, it has released reserves five times.
• The recommendation is not binding. South Korea is considering releasing around 22.48 million barrels.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Iran Hit Dubai Harder Than Israel.

• Since the war began, Iran has fired over 1,700 missiles and drones at the UAE (United Arab Emirates). Claiming to intercept over 90% means at least 100+ hit their targets.
• CNN analyzed that Iran launched twice as many drones and missiles at the UAE as at Israel. The UAE is closer and has comparatively weaker air defenses.

KOSPI W-Curve, Following Foreigners.

• KOSPI index hit 2,561.0. International oil prices are the biggest variable.
• Since January last year, the correlation between KOSPI and net purchase volume shows individual investors had a coefficient of -0.57, while foreigners and institutions had 0.50 and 0.41. When individuals buy, it falls; when they sell, it rises. Though individuals account for 50-70% of trading volume, market direction is set by foreigners.
• Since breaking 2,500, foreigners and institutions have steadily realized gains, while individual inflows surged. Individuals’ cumulative net purchases reached 54 trillion won. Foreigners and institutions net sold 28 trillion and 41 trillion won, respectively.

Deep Dive.

Conspiracy Theories Over Dropped Charges Leave Lingering Questions.

• Kim Eo-jun (CEO of Ddanzi Ilbo) and Jang In-su (former MBC journalist) raised these suspicions.
• A Cheong Wa Dae official requested someone in the prosecution to drop the charges—this is what Jang claims to have heard—and if charges are dropped, there’s a possibility they might try to implicate Lee Jae-myung on abuse of power. That’s their argument.
• From Kim’s perspective, it might have been a well-intentioned warning, but if it’s true that a Cheong Wa Dae official requested dropped charges, that alone is a massive issue.
• Hong Sa-hoon (former KBS journalist) even said, “If that’s true, it’s grounds for presidential impeachment.” The JoongAng Ilbo amplified this, titling their piece, “Conspiracy theories escalate to impeachment talk.”
• If Jang’s claim that “a request to drop charges was made” is based on testimony he obtained, that needs cross-verification. But the idea that “the prosecution is calculating how to eliminate the president” is purely Jang’s speculation. Based solely on the News Factory broadcast, it’s hard to avoid criticism of shoddy reporting.
• In an editorial, the JoongAng Ilbo noted, “The government and ruling party may find conspiracy theories unfair, but they should consider why such theories gain traction.” This refers to the Democratic Party’s strong pressure to drop charges.
• Dropping charges against Lee Jae-myung has now become politically more difficult.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

“Perplexing and Preposterous.”.

• Justice Minister Jeong Seong-ho (Minister of Justice) voluntarily met with reporters.
• “It’s absurd to link the dismissal of the presidential case’s indictment with the prosecution’s right to supplementary investigation,” he said, adding, “I consider these claims highly inappropriate and unrealistic.”
• The People Power Party insists the case must go to a special prosecutor.
• Park Ji-won (Democratic Party lawmaker) stated, “To dispel misunderstandings, a thorough investigation must clarify the facts.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Jeong Cheong-rae’s Ambivalent Stance.

• Jeong Cheong-rae (Democratic Party leader) subtly diverges from Cheong Wa Dae while leaving room for hardliners like Kim Yong-min (Democratic Party lawmaker).
• Jeong stated, “The president’s will remains unchanged, consistent, and strong,” yet added, “There is time to put heads together.” Saying, “It’s not vastly different from the party” implies it is, in fact, different.
• A Democratic Party lawmaker interviewed by Kyunghyang Shinmun remarked, “Jeong Cheong-rae seems less driven by conviction on prosecutorial reform than by a desire for party support.” “He seems deluded if he thinks altering the government’s proposal will only lose 20% on both extremes.”
• Related Link.

“Message to Drop Charges?” No Prosecutors Report Receiving It.

• Jang In-su claimed that a Cheong Wa Dae official’s message was “spreading rapidly among prosecutors,” yet no prosecutor has come forward to say they received it.
• This would be a chance to derail judicial reform, yet not even anonymous tips exist.
• JTBC asked several chief prosecutors, including Lim Eun-jung (Seoul Eastern District Chief Prosecutor), and all denied hearing anything.
• In an editorial, Kyunghyang Shinmun emphasized, “To prevent the judicial reform debate from being distorted or misrepresented, it’s right to clear up suspicions thoroughly,” adding, “The president drawing a clear line could also be a solution.”
• Related Link.

Reviving the Judicial Exam?

• Hankyoreh’s exclusive report. A plan to select 50–150 candidates separately from law schools is under review.
• An anonymous Cheong Wa Dae official said, “Law schools have faced criticism for being an ‘exclusive club’ and failing to represent the national average.”
• The plan is to report to the president and have the Ministry of Justice review it. Lee Jae-myung (President) once stated, “If someone has the ability, they should be able to verify their qualifications as a lawyer without graduating from law school.”
• The judicial exam ran alongside law schools after their 2009 introduction but ended in 2017. While criticism of law schools as a modern-day “hereditary privilege system” has fueled support for reviving the exam, concerns about creating a new generation of exam dropouts persist.
• Law school tuition costs 14.47 million won annually.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Another Take.

“Without Supplementary Investigative Authority, We’d Never Know If Cases Were Covered Up for Money.”.

• Jeong Seong-ho (Minister of Justice) gave an exclusive interview to JoongAng Ilbo.
• Since direct and proactive investigations are now impossible, he argued, “supplementary investigations are closer to evidence supplementation than actual investigations.”
• “If we can’t even request evidence supplementation, we’d have to rely solely on the police’s goodwill,” he noted, adding, “It’s dangerous to blindly trust that the police—who hold both the authority to initiate and close investigations—are infallibly virtuous.”
• Related Link.

Toss Bank’s Currency Exchange Fiasco: Not So Simple.

• An incorrect yen price hike caused over 10 billion won in losses.
• Transactions were canceled and refunds processed.
• Chosun Ilbo noted, “This case once again exposed how fragile the safety net of digital finance truly is.”
• Related Link.

Jang Dong-hyeok’s “Sincere Yoon” Pledge Fades After Two Days.

• He told reporters, “I just wish they’d see my sincerity,” but no action has followed.
• Oh Se-hoon (Seoul Mayor) is demanding more aggressive personnel reforms.
• The People Power Party extended candidate registration until today, but Jang may not even register.
• Chosun Ilbo headlined an anonymous party insider’s remark: “The election needs a fresh face—not Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party Leader).”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Eliminating Severance Pay, Mandating Retirement Pensions.

• 40% of unpaid wages stem from severance pay disputes.
• Retirement pensions—mandatorily accumulated by companies in financial institutions—strengthen profitability and stability.
• The plan is to enact related legislation within this year.

Kim Yong’s By-Election Bid?

• Kim Byung-jin (former Democratic Party lawmaker) lost his seat due to election law violations, triggering a by-election.
• Speculation swirls that Kim Yong (former Democratic Research Institute deputy director), a close aide to Lee Jae-myung (President), may run.
• Kim Yong was sentenced to five years in prison in both first and second trials for receiving 800 million won from Nam Wook (Hwacheon Daeyu shareholder) and others under the guise of presidential campaign funds, though he remains free on bail.
• While some express discomfort—“This could harm the President”—others hesitate to speak openly: “We’re afraid of being called watermelons.”
• Kim Yong stated, “If there’s a place for me, I’ll do my best.” Last month’s book launch event was attended by Jung Chung-rae (Democratic Party Leader) and Han Byung-do (Democratic Party Floor Leader).
• Related Link.

The Fix.

Can Lee Jae-myung Deliver? Start with Integrated Care.

• Song Hyun-sook (Director of the Humantitas Institute at Kyunghyang Shinmun) proposed properly implementing integrated care.
• [Integrated care enjoyed where one lives] is one of Lee Jae-myung’s government priorities.
• “Is it even possible? How much will it cost? Who will do all this?” Song Hyun-sook emphasized, “If the essence of politics is to ease citizens’ lives, integrated care is a goal that must be achieved.”
• Related Link.

It’s Time for the President to Visit Schools.

• Student suicides rose from 93 in 2015 to 221 in 2024. From 2021 to last June, 31,811 students attempted suicide or self-harm.
• Oh Chang-min (Kyunghyang Shinmun columnist) emphasized educational reform:
• “Go see and hear what students are struggling with, what pain teachers are enduring. Despite difficulties, attempts and efforts at educational reform must continue. That is the path to saving even one student or teacher.”
• Related Link.

‘Just Dream’, Expanding Nationwide.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) introduced this daily necessities support program during his tenure as Seongnam mayor.
• Visiting a center provides 20,000 won worth of instant rice, ramen, canned tuna, and other items without questions.
• There’s also a process to identify frequent low-income visitors and connect them to welfare systems. Of 57,000 participants, 12,000 received counseling and 700 gained access to welfare services.
• 129 centers are operating across 68 cities and counties.

ICYMI.

F-4 Phantom Sold for Scrap.

• A McDonnell Douglas fighter jet launched in 1958. 5,195 units were sold globally.
• The South Korean Air Force operated it until 2024. International military enthusiasts even visited Korea to witness its final flight.
• That F-4 Phantom appeared as a lot in a Korea Asset Management Corporation auction. The final bid price: 14.1 million won.
• Related Link.

Amazon’s $50 Billion ‘Debt Binge’.

• Last year, it issued $12 billion in bonds. This year, it plans to invest $200 billion in data centers and AI infrastructure.
• Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and the other Magnificent Seven companies are projected to spend a combined $650 billion in capital expenditures (CAPEX) this year.

Hospitals Capable of Childbirth Drop 40% in 11 Years.

• The number fell from 706 in 2013 to 425 in 2024.
• 31% of 250 cities and counties have no childbirth facilities.
• Even after raising childbirth fees, hospitals are closing maternity wards due to unsustainable costs—labor expenses, 24-hour duty shifts, and insurance premiums.

Worth Reading.

Schools Must Differ from Courts.

• Schools are becoming miniature versions of courts. When school violence is reported, investigations, documentation, and testimony procedures begin, escalating into legal disputes. Over half of all reported cases are transferred to external reviews. Appeal rates are high, with many cases progressing to administrative litigation.
• Kim Ye-won (Attorney, Disability Rights Law Center) emphasized, “Violence cannot be justified, but the purpose of education should not stop at retribution.” “Acknowledging wrongdoing, restoring relationships, and helping students grow within the community again is education’s true role,” she said. “Schools must reclaim their educational authority and responsibility to resolve conflicts.”
• Related Link.

Why Lee Jun-seok Fell Into Jeon Han-gil’s Trap.

• David Packman (political commentator) summarized three criteria to consider when giving a platform to someone on ‘The Echo Chamber’. If even one is not met, you should stop.
• First, are their views so extreme and vile that they are socially intolerable?
• Second, does their argument pose a significant risk of spreading further if not immediately debunked?
• Third, am I fully prepared to thoroughly refute their argument and decisively win the debate?
• Kim Nae-hoon (author) analyzed the debate between Lee Jun-seok (Reform Party Leader) and Jeon Han-gil (YouTuber) as follows:
• Lee should have said ‘no’ to the second question and overestimated himself in the third.
• There is a fourth question: Do I have to be the one to engage?
• The result? Lee tried to use Jeon Han-gil to attract attention but ended up becoming his host.
• ‘Provocateur’—derived from the English word ‘provoke’—refers not just to attention-seekers (‘gwanjong’), but to those who deliberately incite and anger others to gain attention. They are instigators and agitators.
• If you deny attention to a provocateur, they wither like Jin Chung-kwon (Professor, Kwangwoon University). The most dangerous move is acknowledging them as debate partners and handing them a microphone.
• Related Link.

THAAD Arrival Strained Ties with China.

• This occurred during the Park Geun-hye administration. To deploy the THAAD system in Seongju, China severed exchanges and imposed severe retaliatory measures against Korean businesses. The cultural ban remains in place to this day.
• The THAAD system, brought in at such cost, is now being diverted to the Middle East.
• Patriots defend below 40km, but beyond that range, nothing but THAAD can intercept.
• The Korea Daily criticized in an editorial, “This leaves a gaping hole in air defense,” adding, “One cannot help but ask whether the Korean Peninsula’s defense and alliance mechanisms are functioning properly.”