Plummet, Then Soar.

• KOSPI surged 9.6% to 5,949.7 after plunging 12.1% the previous day.
• Jim Bianco (Bianco Research CEO) noted, “The Korean market is too volatile for the faint of heart.” He explained, “With high retail investor participation, gains are doubled and corrections come as sharp drops.”
• Korea’s KOSPI trading volume is 50% retail investors—compared to 20-25% in the US and Japan.
• Retail investors drove the rebound by net purchasing ₩7.7 trillion worth of stocks over three days.
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Proxy Ground War via Kurdish Forces.

• An attempt to wage ground combat while minimizing U.S. casualties.
• It exploits the longstanding conflict between Shia and Sunni factions. The Kurds are the world’s largest ethnic minority, never having established an independent state. Their population is estimated at 30–40 million.
• It is possible the Kurds received promises of independence or expanded autonomy from the U.S. and Israel.

Iranian Warship Sunk by Torpedo Strike.

• A U.S. submarine sank Iran’s patrol vessel Irisshahid. 87 bodies were recovered.
• A single torpedo cost $4.2 million (6.2 billion won).

What Matters Now.

“Money Is the Devil, But This Is Too Much.”.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) made this remark regarding gasoline prices.
• Based on Seoul prices, it jumped from ₩1,750 per liter on the 28th of last month to ₩1,889 on the 5th.
• Prices surged despite sufficient reserves and no supply disruptions.
• “Rocketing up, floating down like a feather,” read Chosun Ilbo’s apt headline.
• On the Singapore exchange, gasoline rose 25% from $79.6 to $99.7 per barrel, while diesel jumped 52% from $92.3 to $140.6.
• Criticism arises that refiners may have colluded in advance, with prices reflecting changes after a 2–3 week lag.
• Under the Price Stabilization Act and Petroleum Business Act, maximum prices can be set.
• Bong Wook (Blue House Senior Secretary for Civil Affairs) warned, “Unjust profits can be recovered through surcharges.”
• Donga Ilbo cautioned, “Price controls must be handled carefully.”
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No Presidential Veto.

• The ruling party passed and promulgated the judicial reform bills, the Gwangju-Jeonnam Special Act, the revised Referendum Act, and the third revision of the Commercial Code in one sweeping session.
• Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae (Supreme Court Chief Justice) strongly objected, and the People Power Party demanded a veto—but both were dismissed.
• People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyeok and party members dressed in mourning attire and gathered outside the presidential office. “In a country where power writes verdicts and the regime lords over the judiciary, there is no place for rule of law or democracy,” they argued.
• Related Link.

Asked Putin, “Will You Supply Weapons to Iran?”.

• “No request has been received,” he said—implying support could follow if asked.
• Vladimir Putin (Russian President) may refrain from intervening in Iran as a condition for concessions from Trump in Ukraine.
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Iran’s Missile City.

• No one knows how many missiles Iran has stored in its underground bunkers.
• Many have already been destroyed, and while many may remain, U.S. satellites and drones are constantly monitoring them.
• Each missile launch reveals its location, followed by immediate airstrikes.
• Missiles can be built, but launch pads are harder to replace.
• The Wall Street Journal projected, “Since Iran’s arsenal cannot be accurately assessed, it’s impossible to determine how long it can sustain this conflict.”
• Iran’s missile launches have dropped 86% since the first day of combat, and drone deployments are down 73%.
• They may be deliberately conserving supplies—or simply running out.
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Who Will Run Out of Missiles First?

• The U.S. has approximately 1,600 Patriot missiles in its inventory, producing around 700 annually.
• Mark Cancian (Senior Advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies) noted, “If the U.S. decides to expend its Patriot missile stockpile in this war, it could outlast Iran—but at the risk of vulnerabilities in the Pacific region.”
• Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) estimates Iran possesses around 2,000 ballistic missiles, of which 571 have been fired. The BBC analyzed, “Iran’s reduced missile launches may reflect a strategy to preserve reserves,” suggesting a protracted conflict is likely.
• According to Chosun Ilbo, the repatriation of over 1,000 U.S. Army-guided bomb kits from South Korea to the U.S. mainland late last year could have been part of preparations for strikes against Iran.
• Related Link.

Anthropic and Pentagon Re-enter Negotiations.

• After the U.S. Department of Defense pressured to expel Anthropic (Claude), talks have resumed.
• According to the Financial Times, Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO) insisted certain clauses be removed—and the Pentagon has agreed.
• In a staff briefing, Dario Amodei claimed, “Unlike Sam Altman (OpenAI CEO), we were expelled because we didn’t praise Trump.”
• Related Link.

U.S., Not Israel, Attacked Iranian Elementary School.

• The New York Times analysis. The elementary school was located near an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval base. It is highly likely that U.S. forces conducted the attack on the base.
• At least 175 people were killed.
• The New York Times noted that U.S. forces could not have been unaware of the school’s presence there.
• Related Link.

Deep Dive.

Will China’s Economic Growth Fall Below 5% This Year?

• At the National People’s Congress, the target was set at 4.5–5%, the lowest since 1991’s 4.5%. This marks a clear economic slowdown.
• The real estate market remains stagnant, and domestic demand weakness persists.
• Defense spending increased by 7%—1.9096 trillion yuan, equivalent to 406 trillion won.

2,000 Failed Korean Bar Exam Takers.

• Candidates can take the bar exam up to five times. Those who fail five times are called “otallja” (five-time losers). Last year, 3,336 candidates took the exam, of whom 1,744 passed.
• The pass rate is around 50%. Cumulative otallja now total 1,918.
• Debates rage over whether to increase the number of lawyers or declare the market saturated. With AI adoption rising, many law firms no longer hire associate lawyers (entry-level salaried attorneys).
• Related Link.

Another Take.

Suspension of Bae Hyun-jin’s Discipline Takes Effect.

• The People Power Party imposed a one-year suspension of party membership on Bae Hyun-jin (People Power Party lawmaker). Bae filed for a provisional injunction, and the court ruled yesterday that the disciplinary action had “grave defects of abuse or overreach of discretion.”
• The controversy stemmed from her Facebook post, “Putting up your kid’s photo and leaving hate comments,” but speculation dominates that she fell out of favor with the Han Dong-hoon faction.
• Han Dong-hoon (former People Power Party leader) criticized, “Even a casual observer can see that a small but abnormal ‘Yoon Again’ faction is ruining conservatism.”

Seoul Home Prices Fall for Two Consecutive Weeks.

• Songpa District fell by -0.09%, Gangnam and Seocho Districts by -0.07% and -0.01%, respectively.
• Multiple homeowners are rushing to sell. A real estate agent interviewed by Dong-A Ilbo said, “Multi-homeowners are lowering prices to sell quickly because they risk paying more in capital gains taxes if they wait to gain a few hundred million won more.”
• Other areas still see little trading. “Homes are too expensive to buy without a loan,” goes the refrain.
• Ko Joon-seok (Yonsei University professor) predicted, “After the second week of April, sellers may withdraw listings, potentially shifting the downward trend.”
• Related Link.

The Fix.

State Compensation of 15 Million Won to Busan Kickback Victim.

• The Ministry of Justice stated, “We accept our responsibility and will abandon the appeal.”
• Kim Jin-joo (victim, pseudonym) said, “My misfortune is settled, but I’m glad this ruling could create good fortune for others.”
• Kim Jin-joo filed a lawsuit demanding accountability for the unprovoked assault and inadequate investigation. “No one gave me answers, and I felt treated like cargo,” she said.
• “This lawsuit began because people said, ‘If you’re alive, just forget it and move on. Isn’t being alive enough?’ I thought, even if I’m alive, I must raise these issues.”
• While the Crime Victim Protection Act exists, it applies only to the investigation phase and is not reflected in trials. Victims cannot access case records or exercise the right to testify.
• Oh Ji-won (Law and Healing attorney) explained, “This lawsuit aimed to highlight and clarify once more that the state, while monopolizing punitive power, fails to adequately protect or restore victims’ rights.”
• Related Link.

A Loan That Saves Lives: 2 Million KRW.

• This is the story of Gyeonggi Province’s ultra-low-credit loan program.
• It offers up to 2 million KRW to residents with credit scores in the bottom 10%, repayable over up to 10 years.
• So far, 110,000 people have received loans.
• 23% of applicants had previously borrowed from private lenders.
• 6% had even turned to illegal underground financing.
• 15% of applicants belonged to socially vulnerable groups, including near-poor or basic livelihood security recipients.
• Related Link.

Gender Pay Gap Tops World for 33rd Year.

• South Korea’s gender pay gap stands at 29%. The OECD average is 11.3%.
• Employment rates are 77% for men and 62% for women.
• Non-regular worker ratios are 43% and 57%.
• Low-wage worker ratios are 11% and 24%.
• Among companies with 1,000+ employees, 24% of managers are women. The glass ceiling remains thick.
• Parental leave recipients: 117,000 women, 67,000 men.
• Female employment rates still follow an M-shaped curve. By late 50s, the pay gap widens to 50%.
• The gap won’t shrink on its own. Shin Kyung-ah (Hallym University professor) noted, “Sweden introduced gender-equal pay policies from the 1970s” and “reduced the gap to 10% over decades.”

Gender Equality Wage Disclosure System Needed.

• The Moon Jae-in administration discussed but abandoned it. It is included in the Lee Jae-myung government’s policy agenda.
• Kim Du-na (Lawyers for a Democratic Society, Women’s Rights Committee attorney) argued, “It shouldn’t end with just submitting wage information.” She emphasized, “The government must evaluate implementation plans and follow up with sanctions if they fail to execute them.”

ICYMI.

1,000 Won Meals Sell 100 Portions in 4 Minutes.

• You must run to open just to get a bite. Campusflation (campus + inflation) is driving “tight tech” solutions.
• Laptop prices have surged, with even basic models exceeding 3 million won.
• Freshman orientation attendance has dropped.
• Related Link.

Promised $100 Billion Investment in Jeopardy.

• Jensen Huang (NVIDIA CEO) stated, “The $30 billion investment in OpenAI could be the last.”
• The arrangement where NVIDIA invests in OpenAI and OpenAI purchases NVIDIA’s semiconductors may collapse.
• As it’s only at the non-binding MOU stage, either party could still walk away.
• There are also assessments that OpenAI’s ChatGPT could fall behind Anthropic’s Claude or Google’s Gemini.
• Related Link.

Worth Reading.

Can Punishment Correct Wrongful Rulings?

• During the Park Geun-hye administration, the Supreme Court’s Administrative Office attempted to discipline judges who ordered state compensation for victims of Emergency Measure No. 9. Yang Seung-tae (then-Chief Justice) claimed, “The purpose was not to pressure judges but to maintain legal stability.”
• Oh Yeon-seo (Hankyoreh reporter) suggests the Democratic Party’s push for a “legal distortion crime” could face similar controversy. Court rulings are not sacrosanct, and wrongful judgments must be corrected. But can this be achieved through punishing judges?
• Kim Ki-young (then-Seoul Central District Court judge), who was targeted for discipline at the time, remarked:
• “If a first-instance ruling is wrong, it can be corrected at the appellate level. If an appellate ruling is wrong, the Supreme Court can rectify it according to law and conscience. Is reviewing disciplinary action something that should occur in a country with a well-established rule of law?”
• Related Link.
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How Else Could the Charge of Legal Distortion Arise?

• Lee Chun-jae (Hankyoreh editorial writer) criticized, “The Cho Hee-dae judiciary only seeks to lecture the public.” The critique asserts, “There are far too many judges and prosecutors mocking the very definition of law as the minimum of common sense.”
• Can we trust courts that release coup conspirators on procedural grounds, hastily overturn rulings against a leading presidential candidate, and declare, “Martial law declarations cannot be subject to judicial review”?
• It’s not that judges who collaborated with Nazis were monsters. The argument is that legal distortion crimes are necessary precisely because anyone can twist the law without malice.
• Related Link.

What Happened to the Good Start?

• Lee Joon-hee (Korea Ilbo senior advisor) assessed, “Lee Jae-myung (President) will inevitably be remembered for using the ‘hagiography method’ to save himself.”
• Lee Joon-hee views Lee Jae-myung as the primary beneficiary of the judicial reform trio.
• “The high marks for governance exceeding expectations will be significantly overshadowed by the side effects of unilateral, transparently motivated prosecutorial-justice reforms,” he noted.
• Related Link.

The Iranian Nuclear Mystery.

• When Israel bombed Iran last June, Trump declared, “The nuclear program was completely destroyed.”
• And yet, has the nuclear weapon suddenly resurfaced?
• There were estimates that enrichment levels could reach 60% with 440kg of material.
• Lee Jeong-eun (Dong-A Ilbo deputy editor) analyzed, “Iran is likely to follow North Korea’s nuclear development path, ultimately concluding that possessing nuclear weapons is the only way to avoid being attacked.”
• Related Link.

Middle East Was Never the Variable.

• Kim Hak-gyun (Shinyoung Securities Research Center Head) views it differently from the immediate aftermath of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. The worst-case scenario of collapsing supply chains, rising prices, central banks tightening, and soaring interest rates is unlikely to recur.
• Structural inflationary pressures are not significant now. What matters is the Bank of Korea’s choice. Kim warned, “If interest rate hikes—a demand-suppression measure—are misused as a solution to supply chain issues, the market may hit a reef more terrifying than war: ‘policy error.’”
• Related Link.