“Today, I’m betting my life.”.

• At 11 AM Korean time, South Korea’s first World Cup match against the Czech Republic begins at the 1,561-meter-high Guadalajara Stadium in Mexico.
• Son Heung-min (South Korea national team captain) said, “I’ve never said this would be my last World Cup,” adding, “Everyone’s free to speculate, but I’ll make my own decision.”
• At 34, this is Son’s fourth World Cup. Ronaldo played his sixth at 41, Messi at 39.

Troubling Trends in Employment Figures.

• 15+ employed population fell by 40,000 to 29.12 million from a year ago.
• Youth (15–29) employment remains sluggish, down 260,000 year-on-year.
• Manufacturing jobs declined by 140,000.
• Bin Hyun-jun (Director of Social Statistics, National Data Bureau) explained, “Semiconductor sectors have low job-creation multipliers, meaning their employment impact lags behind actual industrial output growth.” Jobless growth is accelerating.
• Related Link.

Young Poor Double in Numbers.

• Among households in the bottom 20% for both net assets and income, the share of those in their 20s–30s rose from 8% in 2020 to 15% last year.
• The net asset Gini coefficient, an inequality indicator, jumped from 0.58 in 2017 to 0.63 last year.
• Lee Jae-ho (Deputy Director, Bank of Korea Research Bureau) explained, “Asset prices have risen so rapidly that monthly income alone makes it difficult to climb the asset-building ladder.”
• Related Link.

What Matters Now.

The War That Never Ends.

• The U.S. fired 49 Tomahawks at Tehran.
• Donald Trump (U.S. President) warned, “We will seize Kharg Island,” adding in a Fox interview, “If Iran doesn’t sign the deal, we’ll crush them completely.”
• Kharg Island handles 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry claimed, “The ceasefire agreement has become meaningless.”
• Iran attacked U.S. bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. The Strait of Hormuz has been fully closed again.
• Trump keeps changing his story. He said, “Negotiations have reached the final stage,” but Iranian state media dismissed it: “Nothing is finalized.”
• Sunday is Trump’s 80th birthday. A UFC match celebrating America’s 250th independence anniversary will be held in the White House front yard. He probably wanted to end the war before then—but it’s almost impossible.
• Related Link.

U.S. Stock Markets Surge Again.

• S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq rose 1.75%, 1.86%, and 2.54% respectively.
• Oil prices fell after Trump announced the cancellation of airstrikes.
• Semiconductor stocks soared. Intel and Micron jumped 9% and 11% respectively.
• Related Link.

Coupang Hit With ₩624.7 Billion Penalty.

• An additional ₩16.8 million in fines applies separately. This marks the largest-ever sanction imposed by the Personal Information Protection Commission.
• Personal data of 37.55 million people was leaked. Shipping address records totaling 63.98 million entries were compromised. Over 4,226 unencrypted shared entrance passwords were also exposed.
• It was revealed that Coupang collected online activity logs of 11.17 million members.
• Coupang stated, “We regret that proactive measures to prevent secondary damage and explanations based on factual circumstances were insufficiently reflected,” adding, “We expect factual clarification through legal procedures.” It is highly likely to pursue administrative litigation.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Counting Errors Abound in Vote Tallying.

• Superintendent elections lack party symbols, with ballot order determined by lottery—yet multiple locations incorrectly entered vote counts.
• Kim Min-seok (Prime Minister) remarked, “A top-to-bottom reckoning is necessary.”
• Polling stations with insufficient ballots increased to 91, while 1,104 votes were omitted in the North Jeolla superintendent election.
• According to the Truth Commission, unnumbered ballots should be distributed at 3% of voters—but Seoul’s election commission allocated 2,000 each. Proper distribution would have given Songpa District 17,000. The shortage was not supply but misallocation.
• Calls grow for systemic overhaul, bordering on dismantling.
• Related Link.

Raid on Election Commission: Key Is Proving Intent.

• Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency’s regional investigation unit raided the National Election Commission.
• Oh Seon-hee (Hyemyung Law Firm attorney) noted, “Under precedent, public officials cannot be punished for mere ‘incompetence’ under dereliction-of-duty charges—it must be clearly proven that they neglected duties to the extent of abandonment, beyond merely failing at their jobs.”
• Observers suggest proving intent will not be easy.
• Allegations of electoral fraud are not under investigation.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Jeong Cheong-rae, Step Down.

• Park Ji-won (Democratic Party lawmaker) took the lead. “Someone must take responsibility for the president and party’s plummeting approval ratings,” he said, insisting, “The leadership, including Jeong Cheong-rae (Democratic Party leader), should resign and declare they will not run in the party convention.”
• Jeong Cheong-rae responded, “I heard you,” adding, “You can judge for yourselves.”

“Childish Talk” Amid Calls for Jang Dong-hyeok’s Resignation.

• People Power Party’s Supreme Council meeting descended into chaos.
• U Jae-jun (People Power Party Supreme Council member) declared, “A party convention must be held, and Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party leader) must be reevaluated.”
• Jo Kwang-han (People Power Party Supreme Council member) retorted, “Publicly making childish remarks is politically immature.”
• Jang Dong-hyeok deflected, “Nothing is more urgent in South Korea right now than the ballot shortage crisis.”

Deep Dive.

Hwaseong Apartment Prices Surge 2% in a Week.

• Samsung Electronics’ bonus payments are fueling the spike—a 1.98% weekly jump. Prices have risen cumulatively by 7.19% since January.
• The area is exempt from land transaction permit regulations, enabling speculative investment.
• Nam Hyuk-woo (Woori Bank researcher) analyzed, “Dongtan’s strong market momentum is spreading to Seongnam’s Bundang District, Suwon’s Yeongtong District, and other regions.”

30-Something Panic Buying in Real Estate.

• Those in their 30s accounted for 46% of April’s Seoul apartment transactions—40-somethings made up 27%.
• With jeonse listings dwindling, analysts say many are reluctantly turning to “all-in” purchases. A 30-something man interviewed by Kyunghyang Shinmun said, “I felt FOMO—like if I don’t plant my flag in Seoul now, something terrible will happen.”
• Yoo Sun-jong (Konkuk University professor) stated, “The government needs to send concrete supply signals.”

NBS Poll Shows Sharp Drop in Approval Ratings.

• Lee Jae-myung (President)’s approval rating fell from 66% to 57%.
• The Democratic Party and People Power Party stand at 41% and 25%, respectively.
• Related Link.

Kim Yong-beom’s Project Trinity.

• It proposes a trinity strategy to bundle semiconductors, data centers, and physical AI into a single circular structure, positioning South Korea as a core hub in the AI supply chain.
• Kim Yong-beom (Blue House Policy Secretary) emphasized, “AI data centers are better suited for non-capital regions where there is surplus power or proximity to power generation facilities.”
• Physical AI could become the next growth engine. It’s a market where early entrants maintain long-term dominance, requiring national-level concentrated investment and manufacturing capabilities to execute it.
• “As robotic task data, factory production data, logistics operational data, and equipment sensor data accumulate, the model learns and continuously improves. It’s a relentless cycle of learning, deploying, collecting data, and learning again.”
• “Once this loop starts spinning, it becomes a nation-scale AI platform. Production capacity can be caught up, but ecosystems with accumulated data and operational experience—and nation-scale platforms—are hard to replicate. Over time, the gap widens.”
• Related Link.

SK to Build AI Factory in Japan.

• “We could build a semiconductor factory in Japan,” said Chey Tae-won (SK Chairman) in an interview with Nikkei.
• The plan is to create a large-scale AI data center and supply AI infrastructure to Japan. The target for operation is 2028–2029. It will require a GW-scale power supply and land.

European Central Bank Hikes Rates, Global Tightening Trend Continues.

• Deposits rates were raised from 2.00% to 2.25%, a 0.25 percentage point increase.
• Inflation is the crux. The eurozone’s May consumer price growth hit 3.2%. The target is 2%.

Seoul Women in Their 30s Favored Jeong Won-o.

• Exit poll predictions were revealed to be incorrect. The “Joint Broadcast Networks Exit Poll Committee” issued an apology alongside an explanation.
• The error stemmed from calculating vote shares based solely on same-day exit polls, excluding pre-vote prediction data.
• In the case of Seoul women in their 30s, broadcasts reported 53.6% support for Oh Se-hoon (Seoul Mayor) and 42.8% for Jeong Won-o (Democratic Party candidate), but the actual figures were 45.3% and 51.3%.
• While the explanation cited “institutional negligence,” it was a critical mistake.
• Related Link.

Another Take.

Gold Plunges Sharply.

• Prices have fallen over 20% from peak levels. After reaching $5,500 per 31.1g in January, gold has dropped to $4,113.
• Once considered the ultimate safe haven, its appeal has waned as global inflation surges and central banks pivot toward rate hikes, boosting the dollar’s relative attractiveness.

A New Tax Is Needed.

• AI will replace 80% of economically valuable work currently done by humans.
• Vinod Khosla (Khosla Ventures founder) argues, “To reduce the pain of unemployment, we must sacrifice some efficiency of capitalism.”
• First, capital gains should be taxed like labor income. Collecting $400 billion annually could fund support for those displaced by AI, with surpluses refunded to earners below $75,000. This isn’t redistribution but reversing a tax system already skewed upward.
• Second, impose a 20% token tax on AI computation and robotic labor substitution revenue. This could generate $150–200 billion annually within five years.
• Third, basic services like healthcare, mental health support, chronic disease management, and legal aid should be provided nearly free to all.
• Khosla emphasized, “Capitalism operates under democracy’s permission.” If structural unemployment and polarization aren’t addressed, capitalism itself could face backlash.
• Related Link.

A World Economy Hitching a Ride on Elon Musk.

• SpaceX is listing on Nasdaq today. The IPO amount is $86 billion, with a target market cap of $1.78 trillion. It will immediately become the world’s 7th-largest company.
• It’s so massive it’ll automatically be included in major indices, triggering $16.2 billion in passive orders. If added to the S&P 500, another $14 billion would flow in—but the S&P500 has decided to hold off for now.
• Goldman Sachs, the IPO underwriter, forecasts SpaceX’s AI revenue must grow 100x to $322 billion by 2030.
• Morgan Stanley analyzed that total revenue must grow 180x by 2040 to justify the valuation—a $3.4 trillion revenue with $2.7 trillion in profit.
• There’s governance risk too. Elon Musk (Tesla CEO) controls 80% of voting rights via Class B shares with 10x voting power. Short of self-sabotaging, there’s no way to oust him.
• Musk agreed to a $1 trillion compensation package contingent on growing the company’s value to $7.5 trillion and establishing a million-person colony on Mars.
• The Financial Times assessed, “Millions of investors have become passengers on Elon Musk’s audacious ventures.”
• Related Link.

Will Trump’s Sovereign Wealth Fund Work?

• There’s no reason to refuse shares if offered, but it’s not a simple matter. Donald Trump (U.S. President) has proposed acquiring stakes in AI big tech firms like OpenAI and Anthropic and distributing them to citizens.
• The Financial Times suggested, “While the goal of sharing AI’s benefits with society is desirable, it’s better to first establish growth and regulatory guardrails, then address distribution through tax reform later.” The paper added, “The government should not shake the principle of not picking winners and losers.”
• Bernie Sanders (U.S. Senator) initially proposed taking 50% of the shares as taxes, which borders on nationalization. Legal disputes are expected due to the Fifth Amendment’s restriction on seizing private property without just compensation.
• The government could buy shares at market price, but this would burden national debt. It could push up bond yields and crowd out private investment.
• Shares could be donated voluntarily, but some form of quid pro quo might be expected or required. There are concerns that political favoritism could distort industries.
• The Financial Times warned, “Distributing shares could invite moral hazard.” If stock prices rise, Trump becomes a hero—but if they crash, the burden falls on taxpayers, and government guarantees could lead to bailout pressures.
• Related Link.

The Fix.

Minimum Wage for Delivery Riders Stalls.

• KCTU demanded minimum wage protections for subcontracted workers, but the request was rejected.
• The Minimum Wage Commission consists of nine labor, nine employer, and nine public interest representatives. Yesterday’s vote failed 11-15.
• 8.7 million special-employed, platform, and freelance workers classified as “businesses” remain excluded from minimum wage laws. The KCTU Public Transport Union criticized, “The government lacks the will.” “The labor ministry played no role,” they added.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

A Rural Basic Income Pilot Expands to Seven Additional Counties.

• There are now 17 participating regions. Seven counties were added: Gangwon’s Hwacheon, Chungcheongbuk’s Bonghwa, Jeollabuk’s Jinan and Muju, Jeollanam’s Gurye and Boseong, and Gyeongsangbuk’s Cheongsong.
• Monthly vouchers worth 150,000 won for local use will be distributed.
• The Korean Peasants League criticized, “While the rural basic income initiative has merit, the government’s foremost task is addressing the existential crisis facing farmers.” They argue that taxes should prioritize stabilizing agricultural prices and building income safety nets.
• Related Link.

Public Health Doctors Shrink to a Quarter.

• There were 2,116 in 2017—this year, only 592 remain.
• Public health doctors are medical students who serve 36 months at public health centers instead of military service.
• Since the 2023 medical dispute, more medical students have opted for military enlistment over public health roles, causing the sharp decline.
• Gyeongnam Hapcheon County Public Health Center even hired a contract doctor at 1 million won per day due to the shortage.
• Public health doctors in correctional facilities dropped from 24 to 12. Some facilities now see patients only once or twice a week.

ICYMI.

Moon’s Flea-Infested Scrubbing Brigade vs. Han River’s Feces-Smeared Piglet Path.

• These are derogatory terms used by pro-Moon and pro-Lee factions to attack each other.
• Moon’s Flea-Infested Scrubbing Brigade refers to Moon Jae-in, Cho Kuk, Kim Eo-jun (the “flea”), Mae-bul Show, Chung Cheong-rae, and Yoo Si-min.
• Han River’s Feces-Smeared Piglet Path refers to Han Joon-ho, Kang Deuk-gu, Kim Min-seok, Lee Dong-hyung, Kim Yong-min, Lee Eun-ju, and Song Young-gil.
• Related Link.

Samsung Electronics’ Semiconductor Packaging Moves to Gwangju High-Tech Complex.

• 50,000 pyeong of land has been secured. Speculation grows that a semiconductor packaging plant will be built in the third high-tech zone.
• Semiconductor packaging (back-end processing) requires relatively less water and electricity.
• Related Link.

Without China, Robots Cannot Be Built.

• Leadership in the robot industry shifted from Japan to China long ago. Chinese startups like Unitree mass-produce robots under $5,000, while Japan cannot compete in speed or cost.
• This is because the competitive edge of electric vehicles has directly transferred to robotics. Even Tesla relies on Chinese suppliers for over 70% of its components.
• Mingxun Li (Bank of America researcher) stated, “Creating humanoid robots without Chinese parts is nearly impossible.”
• A Ubtech executive said, “If you send design files at 9 a.m., you can receive 3D-printed parts by lunchtime.” Over 90% of Ubtech’s components are made in China.
• The issue lies in software. Dancing humanoid events merely follow prewritten scripts. Robots transporting boxes in factories are only 30% as efficient as humans. Simulation software depends on NVIDIA.
• This could be an opportunity for South Korea. While its technology still lags behind China, the dominant view is that South Korea is the only country capable of replacing Chinese supply chains amid de-risking efforts.
• Related Link.

Worth Reading.

11.6% of Women in Their 20s Make a Different Choice.

• According to exit polls, 18–29-year-old women’s support rates for Seoul mayoral candidates were 56.7% for Oh Se-hoon (People Power Party candidate) and 31.7% for Jung Won-joo (Democratic Party candidate) (revised figures applied). Roughly 12% voted for the Justice Party or other parties.
• Ko Narin (Hankyoreh Gender Team reporter) noted, “Their third-party votes are not wasted votes but a form of protest and pressure.”
• “Women voters in their 20s and 30s no longer fall for empty declarations like ‘building a gender-equal Seoul’ or ‘a Seoul where women are safe.’ If the government’s stance doesn’t change, the next election results are as predictable as daylight. Have the government and ruling party already forgotten the 2030 women who stood in the plaza ‘without a shred of decency’?”
• Related Link.

Basic Income’s Straw Effect.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) expressed optimism, saying, “This is the effect even though it’s a two-year temporary measure,” but the population increase from rural basic income ultimately consists of people who simply moved from neighboring areas.
• Jeollanam-do Shinan County gained 3,324 people, while Mokpo and Jindo lost 5,019 and 252 people, respectively.
• When Jeollabuk-do Sunchang County gained 870 people, Namwon + Jeongeup + Imsil lost 878 people.
• In an editorial, Chosun Ilbo criticized, “Stopping rural depopulation with cash handouts is a temporary fix.” The argument is that “fundamental improvements in medical care, transportation, education, and other living infrastructure must be implemented simultaneously.”
• Related Link.

President Spoke Too Much.

• Kim Jong-in (former Democratic Party emergency committee chairman) said, “Oh Se-hoon’s failure to become Seoul mayor candidate was because the president spoke too much on real estate issues.”
• Jeon Byung-yeol (Kyunghyang Shinmun economic editor) noted, “The Twitter/X posts targeting speculators gave a refreshing feeling but lacked impact.”
• Jeon emphasized, “Don’t smash the jar (jeonse) out of fear of maggots (gap investment),” adding, “Catching flies (speculators) should come first.” The message: don’t wrongly label jeonse—desperately needed by ordinary citizens—as evil.
• “Treat Gangnam’s three districts as discarded cards. The time has come to embrace the rest with wisdom. If uncertain, it might be better to step back and let the market decide.”

You Can’t Defeat a Monster with Its Own Language.

• After the Democratic Party’s defeat in the Seoul mayoral election, some lashed out at innocent 20-somethings with slurs like “tanks should crush them” (Choi Wook) or “we should take up clubs” (Jeong Joon-hee).
• Hong Won-sik (Dongduk Women’s University professor) warned, “If the progressive camp—supposed to isolate the far-right—pushes away youth instead, building walls of isolation themselves, successful reform becomes utterly impossible.”
• “The true strategy of reform is isolating extremism. Yet today’s reform camp risks mimicking the far-right’s crude language and grammar of hatred, isolating themselves from the moderate majority—a deeply concerning path.”
• “We must break the vicious cycle of demonizing others to justify our own existence. The aesthetics of persistent persuasion and efforts to embrace are the keys to ending barbarism in politics and moving toward the future.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

“Kim Eo-jun’s prominence stems from his outsized influence.”.

• Jeong Joon-hee (Hanyang University professor) recently explained regarding the controversy over the “club” remarks, “The point was that a more advanced regulatory system is needed for hate speech like that on Ilbe than what currently exists.”
• He also addressed Kim Eo-jun’s journalism: “If people repeatedly call him a ‘conspiracy theorist,’ we should examine whether he has consistently erred or if there are serious cases to justify that label.”
• “While Garoseoro Research Institute is smaller than News Factory, it harbors far more serious problems. People should demand accountability proportional to its harm, but they don’t mention it—they just dismissively say, ‘YouTube is just garbage.’ That’s unfair.”
• Related Link.