Mojtaba’s First Statement: “Blood Revenge.”.

• “The lever of blocking the Strait of Hormuz must be used,” he declared, adding, “We will not shy away from blood revenge.”
• He is the son of Ayatollah Khamenei (former Iranian Supreme Leader). Speculation also swirls that Mojtaba Khamenei (Iranian Supreme Leader) sustained serious injuries—his statement that day did not appear on screen, and an anchor read it aloud instead.
• The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices fell 1.5%, 1.6%, and 1.8%, respectively.

Oil Prices Hit $100 Again.

• Brent crude futures briefly touched $101.5 per barrel before falling back to around $95.
• The won-dollar exchange rate also surged to 1,491 won.
• The IEA (International Energy Agency) announced a record release of reserves—but it covers only four days of daily production. Based on oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, it’s equivalent to 16 days’ worth.
• Some quip that only Putin (Russian President) is smiling: higher oil prices benefit him, and the Ukraine war’s financial burden eases.
• Related Link.

Gasoline Now 1,724 Won per Liter.

• Diesel is capped at 1,713 won. Adjustments will occur every two weeks.
• Projections suggest a 200- and 100-won reduction, respectively.
• Short-term price stability is expected, but prolonged conflict could strain government finances. The system compensates refiners for losses.

Trump’s Three Miscalculations.

• First, he underestimated Iran’s retaliatory scale. The U.S. exhausted $5.6 billion worth of ammunition in the first two days of the conflict.
• Second, he failed to prepare for rising oil prices. It’s likely he didn’t properly assess the possibility of Iran blockading the Strait of Hormuz and attacking neighboring countries.
• Third, the expectation that removing Khamenei (Iranian Supreme Leader) would bring a moderate leadership was also a miscalculation.

What Matters Now.

Oh Se-hoon Ultimately Did Not Register.

• “We judged that registering without any changes being made was unavoidable,” he said.
• Oh Se-hoon (Seoul Mayor) maintains that an innovation campaign committee must be launched. When asked, “Are you saying Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party Leader) should be excluded from the committee?” he replied, “That’s the concept.” The implication is that figures without a “Yoon Again” alignment—such as Kim Jong-in (former People Power Party emergency committee chair) or Yoo Seung-min (former Saenuri Party lawmaker)—are needed.
• Specifically, he insists on dismissing Jang Ye-chan (Deputy Director of Yeouido Research Institute) and Park Min-young (People Power Party spokesperson), and disciplining Go Seong-guk (YouTuber).
• Oh Se-hoon stated, “There are unfounded suspicions that we’re using (party reform) as a pretext to avoid participating in the election, but we clarify our position: we will participate.”
• A People Power Party official met by JoongAng Ilbo dismissed the demand, calling Jang Dong-hyeok’s “two-term retreat” an excessive request.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Ruling Party Trails Across All Age Groups and Regions.

• The NBS (National Barometer Survey) results show the People Power Party significantly lagging behind in all age groups and regions.
• Seoul’s support rate stood at just 17%—the Democratic Party holds 37%.
• Even voters under 30 have long since turned away. The People Power Party holds 15%, while the Democratic Party leads at 28%.
• Related Link.

Indictment Withdrawal Deal Allegations, Jang In-soo’s Defamation Complaint.

• The Democratic Party decided to file a police complaint against Jang In-soo (former MBC journalist) for defamation. Kim Eo-jun (Ddanji Ilbo CEO) chose not to file a complaint.
• Kim Dong-ah (Democratic Party lawmaker) stated, “We don’t file complaints against TV Chosun representatives just because a guest on TV Chosun spreads falsehoods.”
• Jang In-soo appeared on Kim Eo-jun’s ‘News Factory’ and claimed that government officials sent messages to multiple prosecutors requesting the withdrawal of indictments against Lee Jae-myung (President). The implication was that the Blue House attempted to trade judicial reform for dropped charges.
• The Hankyoreh noted, “Such conspiracy theories emerged because the leadership failed to mediate internal and external disagreements and backlash over the prosecution office reform bill.”
• Jeong Cheong-rae (Democratic Party leader) belatedly stated, “The party will respond strongly using all available measures.” Jeong had previously posted on Ddanji Ilbo’s board, “The Ddanji board is a gauge of public sentiment.”
• Kang Chan-ho (JoongAng Ilbo columnist) observed, “The answer is simple: Stop the push to withdraw indictments, which could destabilize judicial order through the power of the state.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

A Dubai Becoming a Ghost City.

• 90% of the population are foreigners. While migrant workers—2 million Indians and 700,000 Nepalis—are numerous, the country earns $30 billion annually from tourism.
• A nation with no oil resources and heavily reliant on tourism and finance has taken a direct hit from war.
• Though the UAE intercepted over 90% of the 1,700 missiles Iran fired, damage was severe enough to shut down Dubai Airport.
• Related Link.

U.S. Investment Special Act Passes National Assembly.

• It will take three months to take effect. There were observations that the first investment would be an LNG export terminal or nuclear power plant construction.
• The U.S. has initiated a Section 301 trade investigation targeting 16 countries, including South Korea. Trump views Section 301 as a Plan B after the Supreme Court ruling that mutual tariffs are illegal.
• Currently, 10% tariffs are applied under Section 122, set to expire on July 24. Once the Section 301 investigation concludes, there is a possibility of arbitrarily raising tariffs.
• It is not a simple issue. Trump has specifically pointed to South Korea’s automobiles, steel, and petrochemicals as “excess production surpluses.” Beyond the $350 billion investment, there is also a possibility of additional demands.
• Related Link.

Deep Dive.

Even Without Iran, a Pause Was Overdue.

• Customer deposits grew from 50 trillion won a year ago to 132 trillion won. Margin loan balances also rose from 18 trillion to 32 trillion won—a sign of increased debt-driven investing.
• Lee Chae-won (Chairman of Life Asset Management) sees overheating. “Even without the Iran issue, the index would have fallen under some other pretext,” he diagnosed. No stock can rise forever; the market needed to cool off.
• The Korean stock market remains cheap. Its price-to-earnings ratio (PER) has only slightly risen from half the level of major markets. Korea now stands at 10x, while Japan and Taiwan are at 18x.
• Foreign investors’ exits were primarily profit-taking, as the short-term surge became burdensome.
• Related Link.

Can Inheritance Tax Easing Be Achieved?

• Lee Chae-won views easing inheritance taxes for controlling shareholders as the final piece of the money movement puzzle—arguing it’s an issue even a progressive government could resolve.
• Deferring taxation to ensure succession first, or adopting Germany’s model of exempting inheritance taxes if a company is maintained for a certain period, are viable options.
• The Democratic Party’s proposed stock price suppression prevention law takes the opposite approach. If the practice of depressing stock prices to reduce inheritance taxes exists, why not alleviate the tax burden and normalize stock prices instead?
• “Sticks alone have limits; carrots must accompany them. Only then can investment revive and stagnant funds flow. Even now, many companies hoard cash and remain idle—we need to ease restrictions so money can flow into productive sectors.”
• Related Link.

Another Take.

Desalination Attacks Cross Another Red Line.

• Bahrain relies 100% on desalination facilities. Kuwait 90%, Oman 86%, UAE 80%, Saudi Arabia 70%.
• Iran’s situation differs—its desalination dependency is only 3%, with abundant rivers and groundwater.
• If Iran attacks neighboring desalination infrastructure, the war could become far more complex.
• Related Link.

More Important Than ‘Domestic Breakthrough’.

• Developing an independent foundation model under the goal of sovereign AI.
• Kwon Seok-joon (Professor at Sungkyunkwan University) pointed out, “It’s problematic to conclude that sovereign AI should merely aim for industrial self-reliance and internalization.”
• The goal isn’t to create a Korean version of GPT or Claude—emphasis should be on securing models with controllable governance. If Claude performs well, we can use Claude. A world where all citizens abandon ChatGPT for sovereign AI may never come.
• “It should be AI where responsibility for public rights and safety remains domestic, AI that delivers results in core industries like manufacturing, semiconductors, energy, and bio, and AI as a trustworthy capability to share with allies and mid-sized partners,” he argued.
• Related Link.

Déjà Vu in Nonghyup Reform Discussions.

• Step 1: The Nonghyup Central Chairman causes a scandal—under investigation for receiving millions in bribes and illegal election funds.
• Step 2: Media exposes Nonghyup thoroughly, even reporting on local cooperatives’ financial misconduct.
• Step 3: The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs launches an audit.
• Step 4: Once issues surface, the government announces countermeasures.
• Step 5: Presidents amplify reform calls: “Nonghyup itself is a powerhouse” (Roh Moo-hyun), “Nonghyup is the real problem” (Lee Jae-myung).
• Step 6: Parliament responds by revising the Nonghyup Act.
• Step 7: Years later, another “Nonghyup has serious issues” reform forum emerges.
• At a recent forum, Park Jin-do (Professor at Chungnam National University) proposed, “Nonghyup Central should be split organizationally.” He suggested separating its cooperative management, research, and policy activities from its economic and credit businesses.
• The Lee Jae-myung administration initiated reform by introducing direct elections for the Nonghyup chairman. But changing one leader may not resolve deeper systemic issues.
• Park’s solution has three pillars: First, political resolve is essential. Second, strengthen regulatory oversight and demand near-separate independence for subsidiaries. Third, local cooperatives must rebel.
• Related Link.

Yang Moon-seok’s Constitutional Appeal.

• Three judicial reform bills have been promulgated: the law on distortion of justice, constitutional appeals against court rulings, and an increase in Supreme Court justices.
• Yang Moon-seok (Democratic Party lawmaker), convicted of fraudulent loan charges with a suspended 18-month sentence, stated, “While respecting the Supreme Court’s ruling, if there are aspects where basic rights were overlooked, I will seek the Constitutional Court’s judgment.”
• Chosun Ilbo assessed, “Concerns that the powerful and wealthy would attempt to overturn court rulings have become reality.”
• In Yang’s Ansan Gap district, speculation swirls that Kim Nam-kook (Democratic Party spokesperson) and Kim Yong (former deputy director of the Democratic Research Institute) will run for office.
• Related Link.

Yang Moon-seok and the Scenarios.

• Yang Moon-seok’s constitutional appeal leaves several complex legal questions unresolved.
• If Yang wins the appeal, can he reclaim his parliamentary seat?
• He filed for a provisional injunction to suspend the Supreme Court’s ruling—if the Constitutional Court accepts it, could he return to the National Assembly? Would an election still be necessary in that case?
• In the worst-case scenario, the district could end up with two sitting lawmakers.
• There is no clear regulation for restoring a parliamentary seat.
• Son In-hyeok (Constitutional Court Secretary-General) stated, “If a by-election occurs and the appeal is accepted, new legal disputes will arise—potentially leading to another Constitutional Court case over who is the legitimate lawmaker.”
• Related Link.

Can Prosecutors Investigate a Supreme Court Ruling?

• Cho Gi-dae (Chief Justice of the Supreme Court) was reported for distorting justice on the first day the judicial reform bills were promulgated.
• Lee Byung-chul (lawyer), who filed the complaint against Cho, claimed, “Cho Gi-dae and others intentionally failed to apply the written principle, knowing it, with the intent to harm the rights of Lee Jae-myung (then Democratic Party candidate).” The allegation is that they decided to overturn and remand the case without properly reviewing the records.
• The National Police Agency assigned the case to Yongin Western Police Station.

“Upon Arrival, It Seemed Calm,” Said Before Victims’ Families.

• These were the words of Lee Sang-min (then-Minister of the Interior and Safety) at the Itaewon disaster hearing.
• Lee arrived at the scene at 12:45 AM on October 30, 2022, when CPR and evacuations were still delayed.
• Lee claimed, “Calling during that time wouldn’t have changed anything.”
• Witness Min Sung-ho (citizen) testified, “If rescue efforts had been 10 minutes faster, 100 people could have survived.”

The Fix.

Create 300 Schools Matching Minjok Leadership Academy’s Standard.

• Per-student education costs in micro-schools with fewer than 30 students exceed 60 million won.
• Minjok Leadership Academy’s annual tuition, including dormitory fees for all boarding students, is 30 million won. Even accounting for foundation transfers, it’s two-thirds the cost of micro-schools.
• South Korea ranks last in OECD for welfare spending relative to GDP but first in public education spending. Over 10 years, per-student public education costs more than doubled. With declining enrollment, assessments suggest educational quality hasn’t improved proportionally.
• Kim Tae-il (Korea University professor) proposed establishing 92 top-tier schools nationwide—on par with Minjok Leadership Academy, Younghoon Elementary, or Gyeongbok Elementary. Over the next decade, the school-age population will shrink by another 30%. Small schools must consolidate and expand.
• If dormitories are impractical, shuttle services can be implemented. This could also boost rural migration.
• Related Link.

Seven Habits of Pension Masters.

• National Pension Service payouts are determined by three factors: enrollment period, contributions, and timing of receipt.
• A one-year increase in enrollment period raises payouts by 5%.
• It’s advisable to start voluntary enrollment as early as age 18—even one month creates an enrollment record.
• During income gaps, apply for payment exemptions to keep enrollment active. When funds allow, back-pay missed contributions to extend the enrollment period.
• Post-retirement, continue voluntary contributions until age 65. Each additional year increases payouts by 5%.
• Delaying receipt is also beneficial: payouts rise by 7.2% per year deferred, or 36% for a five-year delay.
• Hong Hee-kyung (Seoul Shinmun columnist) called this “National Pension tips that only the informed diligently pursue.”
• Related Link.

ICYMI.

“I Haven’t Written a Single Line of Code in Three Months.”.

• This is the daily reality for Silicon Valley developers these days. Sipping beer while monitoring whether the bot is performing well is sufficient.
• When they wake up, they start by checking how much work Claude Code has completed overnight.
• It feels like a Tamagotchi, but far smarter.
• The term B.C. now stands for “Before Claude.”
• Many developers simultaneously operate five agents. Industry gossip suggests five is the limit.
• Parks are filled with people sitting with laptops open—waiting for their agents’ next command prompt.
• Some developers say raising Claude Code is so engaging they’ve stopped watching Netflix.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Flyers Are Making a Comeback.

• “Bring this flyer, get two bottles of soju for 200 won.”
• As online ad costs soar, flyers are trending again. A single click on Naver or other portal search ads costs 5,000 won.
• Flyers? Just 32 won per sheet. Distributing 10,000 flyers is now said to be more cost-effective than online ads.
• Related Link.

27 Trillion Won in Private Education Costs.

• 76% of students participate in private education.
• The proportion of students not receiving private education has increased, but spending per student who does has risen.
• The average monthly expenditure is 604,000 won.

Mounjaro, Not Wegovy.

• There’s a shortage of obesity medications. Since March, it’s become difficult to find hospitals that can prescribe them.
• Word has spread that Mounjaro is more effective than Wegovy.
• Demands to apply health insurance coverage are also growing. Kim Dae-jung (Ajou University professor) noted, “Obesity is a disease and a matter the state should manage.”

Worth Reading.

Jang Dong-hyeok Has Never Even Attempted a Second-Best Strategy.

• Park Sung-min (CEO of Min Consulting) analyzes:
• To win a war, the supreme leader’s strategic vision, the Joint Chiefs’ operational planning, and the field commander’s execution must align. What about the People Power Party now? No strategic vision, no operational plan. The field commander (Oh Se-hoon) has no intelligence, no weapons, no supplies.
• In a Chosun Ilbo interview last month, Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party leader) said: “If we suffer defeats in Seoul and Busan, it won’t just mean stepping down as party leader—my political career, barely four years old, will end.”
• Jang Dong-hyeok isn’t unaware of the current situation. Has his resolve dissolved in weeks? Park Sung-min assessed, “The party swarms with Red Guard-like figures lacking an ounce of public responsibility and YouTubers scrambling only for private gain.”
• Related Link.

Why Housing Price Stability Doesn’t Equal Housing Stability.

• If there’s an expectation that home prices will rise, rental rates can decrease. The anticipated future capital gains act as a subsidy.
• Conversely, if expectations of price increases weaken, jeonse deposits rise or monthly rent conversions accelerate.
• In this structure, increasing jeonse funding support? Government aid flows through tenants to landlords. Choi Dong-beom (Seoul National University professor) analyzed, “Once introduced, benefits have a ratchet effect—difficult to reverse and moving in one direction.”
• Choi Dong-beom emphasized, “The public burden from rising housing costs cannot be underestimated.” The implication: complementary measures to reduce rental market instability must be considered simultaneously.
• Related Link.

The Temptation of Constitutional Complaints.

• “Would you prefer a lawyer who says, ‘Let’s file a constitutional complaint,’ or one who says, ‘A constitutional complaint won’t help’?” said one attorney. The implication: frivolous claims will flood the system, and only lawyers will benefit.
• In Germany and Spain, constitutional complaints are upheld at a rate of about 1%.
• Lee Min-young (Seoul Shinmun social affairs deputy editor) noted, “Constitutional complaints should not become a ‘universal cheat code’ beyond just a profit model for lawyers.” “No matter how noble the intent, without clear standards and procedures, it won’t save the wronged—it will only create more victims.”
• Related Link.

Issue Users, Knowledge Users, and Entertainment Users.

• Analysis by Park Jae-young (Korea University professor) and Ahn Soo-chan (professor at Semyung University Graduate School of Journalism).
• Issue users are primarily interested in political news and believe news should contribute to social agendas beyond mere information delivery. They are tolerant of partisan bias.
• Entertainment users consume news shown by algorithms. They do not actively seek out news.
• Knowledge users widely explore news across new media, newsletters, print newspapers, and TV. Their consumption leans more toward lifestyle news than current affairs, and they are less politically partisan.
• Baek Sang-jin (head of Kukmin Ilbo’s New Content Team) noted, “Expanding the boundaries of what we’ve believed news to be is necessary,” adding, “This is the most challenging part.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.