The Prosecutor’s Tears.

• “I hope workers, as socially vulnerable individuals, can swiftly receive their severance pay of around 2 million won. And if any public officials, including myself, acted inappropriately during this process, I hope they receive corresponding disciplinary action.”
• Moon Ji-seok (Chief Prosecutor, Gwangju District Prosecutors’ Office) wept openly yesterday during the National Assembly audit of the Ministry of Employment and Labor.
• Legally, workers are entitled to severance pay if they work at least 15 hours a week for over a year. However, in May 2023, Coupang introduced a “reset rule” that nullified prior work periods if any week fell below 15 hours—a loophole to avoid severance payments.
• Moon handled the case during his tenure as Chief Prosecutor at the Bucheon Branch of the Incheon District Prosecutors’ Office. While Moon and the lead prosecutor insisted on indictment, Eom Hee-jun (then Chief of the Bucheon Branch) bypassed Moon and instructed the lead prosecutor to drop the charges.
• There were also signs that seizure and search information had been leaked to Coupang in advance.
• Moon stated, “Kim Dong-hee (then Deputy Chief of the Bucheon Branch) was acquainted with a Kim & Chang attorney representing Coupang.” Before work one day, Kim Dong-hee called to ask, “Is it true you’re raiding Coupang?” When Moon confirmed, “The request has been approved,” Kim responded, “The Supreme Prosecutors’ Office won’t be happy when they find out,” and hung up.
• Evidence secured during the raid was also excluded. Moon filed a formal complaint, deeming Eom Hee-jun’s and Kim Dong-hee’s interference inappropriate. “Instructing the suppression of seizure results constitutes criminal acts like falsifying official documents,” he said.
• Kim Joo-young (Democratic Party lawmaker) urged, “Unfair employment rules must be abolished,” and added, “Severance pay should be paid as quickly as possible.” Jeong Jong-cheol (Coupang CFS CEO) responded, “We will restore the original employment rules.”
• Moon remarked, “While restoring the rules is fortunate, only eight out of thousands of workers filed complaints,” and insisted, “The prosecution must indict Coupang now.”
• Related Link.

What Matters Now.

Stricter Than Expected: The October 15 Measures.

• Lee Jae-myung’s government has unveiled its third real estate policy.
• First, regulated areas have expanded. Entire Seoul, Gwacheon, Gwangmyeong, Seongnam’s Bundang and Sujeong Districts, Jungwon District, Suwon’s Yeongtong and Jangan Districts, Paldal District, Anyang’s Dongan District, Yongin’s Suji District, Uiwang, and Hanam are all included—effectively covering the entire Seoul metropolitan area. The aim is to prevent spillover effects.
• Second, in regulated zones, mortgage LTV (loan-to-value ratio) drops from 70% to 40%. Multiple homeowners face higher acquisition taxes: 8% for second homes, 12% for three or more. Capital gains taxes also rise—by 20 percentage points for two homes, 30 for three or more.
• Third, loan restrictions tighten. For collateral loans over 600 million won, limits are imposed: 400 million won for homes between 1.5–2.5 billion won, 200 million won for those exceeding 2.5 billion won.
• Fourth, stress DSR (debt service ratio) rates increase. While interest rates remain unchanged, borrowing limits shrink. Raising the stress rate from 1.5% to 3.0% reduces the maximum loan for someone earning 50 million won annually by up to 43 million won.
• Fifth, DSR now applies to jeonse (lease) loans. Gap investment becomes harder.
• Related Link.

October 15 Measures: Front-Page Angles.

• Newspapers emphasize different points—revealing their core readership.
• The Hankyoreh headlines, “Can’t Buy Seoul Apartment Unless You Live There.”
• Kukmin Ilbo declares, “Triple Locks: No Gap Investments.”
• Donga Ilbo, Seoul Shinmun, and Hankook Ilbo also run, “Can’t Buy Home With Jeonse Leverage.”
• Chosun Ilbo focuses on, “Loans for Homes Over 1.5 Billion Won Tightened to 400 Million Won.”
• JoongAng Ilbo gets more specific: “59㎡ Mareupo Apartment, Previously Bought for 800 Million Won With Jeonse, Now Requires 1.6 Billion Won in Cash.” Mareupo is shorthand for Mapo Raemian Pruzio.
• Overall, the tone is that the market will cool but Gangnam concentration will worsen, with fears of a jeonse crisis.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Middle Class and Below: Dream No More of Seoul.

• Prices may remain listed while transactions freeze, creating a blackout state. Warnings emerge: “Short-term gains may prevent spikes, but long-term risks include collapsing market trust and distorted asset values.”
• Yang Ji-young (Shinhan Premier Pathfinder Senior Researcher) cautioned, “Transaction halts could ‘institutionalize asset inequality.’” She predicts, “The middle class and below will be locked out of market entry, worsening wealth disparities.”
• While spillover effects may shrink, concerns grow that jeonse (lump-sum deposits) and monthly rents will rise together. Yang warned, “Tenant options will shrink, accelerating shifts from jeonse to semi-jeonse, and from semi-jeonse to monthly rents—raising tenant burdens.”
• Ham Young-jin (Woori Bank Real Estate Research Lab Head) forecasted, “Rentalization and tenant housing cost pressures will persist.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Extinguishing the Fire, But What About Jeonse?

• Transactions in the Han River Belt will likely decrease, and prices may stabilize. Chae Sang-wook (CEO of Connected Ground) forecasted, “Within a month, Seoul apartment weekly price increases will fall below 0.1%.”
• Hahm Young-jin (Head of Woori Bank’s Real Estate Lab) also said, “FOMO-driven panic buying in Gangnam and the Han River Belt may pause to catch its breath.” FOMO refers to the fear of missing out—a sense of falling behind.
• This is less a precision regulation than a broad dragnet. Jeong Joon-ho (Professor at Kangwon National University) also analyzed, “The effects will be significant.”
• Warnings emerge that reduced listings could fuel price increases. Nam Hyuk-woo (Woori Bank Researcher) pointed out, “Since supply is shrinking as much as demand, price declines may be limited.”
• Projections also suggest jeonse listings will vanish. Lee Chang-mu (Professor at Hanyang University) forecasted, “As highly accessible Seoul areas are regulated, those unable to own apartments will struggle to secure long-term housing.”
• The Participatory Democracy Institute commented, “Without reversing blanket real estate tax cuts, localized measures cannot quell market instability or rising prices.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

“Even Property Taxes Are on the Table.”.

• Kim Yong-beom (Presidential Office Policy Director) said this on Three Pro TV: “It’s true holding taxes are low. Saying taxes can’t be touched is wrong.”
• Supply takes 3–4 years. Hence, “now, we have no choice but to aggressively suppress demand.”
• Asked about supply commitment, he replied, “It’s not that we don’t know—it’s that interest coordination is difficult, so we ‘can’t’ do it. But we must.”
• Lim Jae-man (Sejong University Professor) argued, “There’s a need to drastically strengthen tax-exemption criteria for single-homeowners.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Is Yoon Different from Moon?

• Chosun Ilbo’s editorial criticized, “It seems like they’re having an emotional battle with the market.” The argument is that suppressing demand without expanding supply cannot solve the root problem. It emphasized, “Even if people don’t buy homes now with all their might, prices can only stabilize if there’s an expectation they’ll be able to purchase at reasonable prices in a few years.”
• There are warnings that touching taxes will lead to failure like Moon Jae-in’s policies.
• Hankyoreh and Kyunghyang Shinmun argue that avoiding tax adjustments is not an option. Hankyoreh stressed, “Don’t make the mistake of hesitating and missing the policy window—real estate taxes should be reformed to align with tax fairness and contribute to market stability.” Kyunghyang Shinmun also noted, “Nothing is more effective than raising effective tax rates, which are far below asset prices, to curb speculative demand.”
• Hankook Ilbo’s editorial remarked, “It’s disappointing that there was no prior coordination with Seoul City, which emphasizes private supply expansion.” The message is, “Extraordinary supply measures must follow.” It predicted, “Even the October 15 measures will last only a few months at best.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Yongsan Outmaneuvers the Democratic Party.

• The Democratic Party naturally cannot help but worry about elections. According to JoongAng Ilbo, presidential office policy lines—who observed the failures of the Moon Jae-in administration up close—strongly demanded and pushed through the measures.
• A senior ruling party official said, “We were most wary of reliving a Moon Jae-in administration déjà vu.” The Moon administration rolled out real estate policies 25 times but failed to curb housing prices.
• One Democratic Party insider remarked, “Seoul public opinion is already far from favorable, and only Oh Se-hoon (Seoul Mayor) will be grinning.” A Democratic Party lawmaker added, “With homeownership rates below 50% in Seoul, if this signals the disappearance of the ladder of opportunity, elections will become even harder.”
• Related Link.

Deep Dive.

Why Cambodia Became a Global Crime Hub.

• Sihanoukville’s Special Economic Zone was originally modeled not after Macau but after Masan Export Processing Zone. With the influx of Chinese casino capital and criminal groups, gambling flourished. After the pandemic cut off tourism, online gambling infrastructure became criminal infrastructure.
• Wench (the complex) operates like a factory dormitory—similar to Chinese Foxconn factories or South Korea’s Taeil-era boarding houses. Park Eun-ha (Kyunghyang Shinmun Beijing correspondent) analyzed, “The repressive labor management seen in East Asian capitalist development has been transplanted into crime.”
• Na Hyun-pil (International Democratic Solidarity Secretary-General) stated, “Criminal groups in Cambodia, Thailand, and Myanmar are linked through chains of government corruption,” adding, “There is no fundamental solution other than not only cracking down on criminal organizations but also supporting the opening of civic space and the functioning of the rule of law in these regions.”

Online Crime Networks.

• First, the dangerous state of low-skilled Korean workers must not be overlooked.
• Second, Cambodia is merely the backdrop—the networks extend to the Philippines, Laos, Myanmar, and beyond. Criminal groups fleeing Chinese crackdowns are likely to relocate to other countries if Cambodia is targeted.
• Third, the core issue is crime networks fueled by deepening global inequality. They must be addressed as a global security challenge requiring international cooperation.
• While South American drug cartels were physical-trade-based crimes, Cambodia’s online networks have low entry barriers, rapid scalability, and are far harder to trace.

Expanded Travel Ban to Cambodia.

• Bavet, Poipet, and Koh Kong are now under travel bans; Sihanoukville is subject to departure advisories; and the rest of the country has been upgraded to a travel restraint designation.
• Park Sung-joo (Director of the National Investigation Headquarters) and Kim Jin-ah (Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs) have departed. They will meet Cambodian government officials today.
• The appointment of Park Il (former Ambassador to Lebanon) as task force leader is noteworthy. He oversaw the rescue operation of 97 Korean nationals during Israel’s October 2022 bombing of Lebanon.

Chinese Health Insurance Surplus Reaches 5.5 Billion Won.

• There were times when the deficit exceeded 10 billion won.
• Since last year, medical shopping has significantly decreased after the rule changed to require foreigners to reside in Korea for over six months to qualify for health insurance.
• The cumulative deficit over nine years stands at 43.18 billion won.

The Supreme Court’s On-Site Verification Falls Flat.

• Choo Mi-ae (Chair of the Legislation and Judiciary Committee) demanded to inspect Supreme Court justices’ PCs during the National Assembly’s audit of the court.
• The Democratic Party passed a motion requiring Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae and justices to submit records of case file access and system login histories. The Supreme Court maintains that trial records cannot be disclosed. In the end, lawmakers only managed to tour the justices’ chambers—no log records were reviewed.
• Jeon Hyeon-hee (Democratic Party lawmaker) remarked, “The Supreme Court chambers were filled with paper records—apparently they still rely on physical documents.” This fueled speculation that the Lee Jae-myung case was rushed to judgment without proper review.
• A Democratic Party lawmaker interviewed by The Korea Times described it as “Choo Mi-ae’s trademark solo politics colliding with her ambition to run in next year’s local elections, creating a Choo Mi-ae black hole.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

Another Take.

Special Prosecutor for Corporal Chae Investigates Prosecutor-General Oh for Dereliction of Duty.

• Oh Dong-jin (Head of the Corruption Investigation Office) allegedly failed to notify the Supreme Prosecutors’ Office after receiving a report accusing Song Chang-jin (Head of the Corruption Investigation Office’s Investigations Bureau) of perjury.
• Song Chang-jin testified before the National Assembly last July that he “was unaware of Lee Jong-ho’s (former CEO of Black Pearl Investment) involvement in the case,” but this was a lie. Suspicions arise that the Corruption Investigation Office may have been covering for its own.
• The special prosecutor investigating Corporal Chae has yet to produce concrete investigative results. Proving actual external pressure on the investigation—not just VIP outrage—is essential.
• Related Link.

25% Tariff Would Cost Hyundai 8.4 Trillion Won.

• Operating profit margins would also shrink from 9.7% to 6.3%, according to NICE Credit Rating.
• A 15% rate would reduce costs to 5.3 trillion won.
• Despite increased local U.S. production, exports from Korea remain substantial.

U.S.-Korea Trade Talks Near Final Stages.

• Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen remarked, “The devil is in the details, but we’re resolving them.”
• A potential retreat from the demand for $350 billion in cash payments is emerging.

One Ton of Rare Earths, One Ton of Radioactive Waste.

• 200,000 liters of acidic wastewater are also discharged.
• Forty years ago, the U.S.’s Mountain Pass Mine dominated the rare earth market.
• It lost ground to Chinese rare earths priced at a fraction of the cost.
• A competition made possible by ignoring environmental pollution and mobilizing cheap labor.
• Without rare earths, no electric vehicles, wind power, robots, or fighter jets can be built.
• It’s also why Trump couldn’t launch an all-out war against China.
• Woo Kyung-im (The Dong-a Ilbo columnist) assessed, “China now holds a weapon to strike at America’s Achilles’ heel, but at the cost of its own people’s health and lives.”
• Related Link.

Is Childbirth a Social Duty? Progressives Disagree.

• In a survey by the Institute for Progressive Policy, 51% of men and 36% of women agreed with the statement, “One must necessarily have children.”
• Political leanings also showed significant divergence: 57% of progressives opposed the claim, compared to 43% of conservatives.
• Jeong Han-ul (Director of the Korea Society Research Institute) analyzed, “Political campaigns emphasizing familism and pronatalism have ample potential to emerge as major issues.”
• Related Link.

The Fix.

Rethinking Incheon Airport’s Profitability.

• Incheon International Airport’s capacity is 106 million passengers, set to rise to 130 million after Phase 5 construction.
• The airport’s transit rate fell from 16.7% in 2021 to 11.2% in the first half of this year—drifting further from its hub airport ambitions.
• Only 20% of Incheon Airport’s revenue comes from aviation; non-aviation income, such as duty-free rent, accounted for 77% last year.
• Kim Jong-woo (Busan Ilbo Seoul Economic Bureau Chief) criticized, “Central media repeatedly glorify Incheon Airport’s ‘profitability’ while dismissing regional airports as ‘airports for drying chili peppers,’” adding, “Airport policy should prioritize passenger convenience and expanding direct routes.”
• Related Link.

The Chicken’s Happiness Is Ultimately for Us.

• Since the 2017 pesticide egg scandal, eggs have been labeled with their origin—a system called shell marking.
• Eggs from free-range farms are marked 1,
• those from barn systems (non-cage indoor rearing) are marked 2,
• improved cage systems are marked 3,
• and conventional cage systems are marked 4.
• Numbers 1 and 2 meet animal welfare certification standards. According to Moon Jeong-hoon (Professor at Seoul National University), the spending on 1+2 eggs increased by 39% and purchase volume by 25% compared to 2022–2023. Eggs marked 3+4 are mainly used for processed goods like baked products.
• In Europe, 1+2 eggs account for 60%. In South Korea, the figure is around 20%.
• Moon emphasized, “If consumers demand animal-welfare-certified eggs in baked goods and are willing to pay slightly more, the market will shift.” The narrative is simple: “Happier chickens mean healthier eggs.”
• Related Link.

Why Universal Payments Are Still the Way Forward.

• Nam Chan-seop (Professor at Dong-A University) argued, “Universal payments are almost impossible in public assistance.” He emphasized, “The cruelty lies not in the application-based system itself, but in the excessive bureaucracy and the selective approach it breeds—residual welfare—stemming from the underlying intent to suppress welfare spending.”
• No Dae-myeong (Research Fellow at the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs) countered, “Universal payments are not only feasible but an effective solution to address coverage gaps.” His argument: “Building an application-based system alongside an automated welfare payment system should be seen as a long-term investment toward realizing a digital welfare state.” However, he cautioned, “Attempts to convert all welfare payments to automated systems at once must also be approached with caution.”
• Related Link.
• Related Link.

ICYMI.

KOSPI Market Cap Surpasses 3,000 Trillion Won.

• The index closed at 3,657.3, a historic high.
• Individual investors sold, while institutional and foreign investors were net buyers.
• Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix rose 3.7% and 2.7%, respectively.

Baek Hae-ryong’s Vacation.

• He was sent to the joint investigation team to probe the drug investigation pressure case, then suddenly took leave. Baek Hae-ryong (Superintendent) said, “Lim Eun-jung (Seoul Eastern District Prosecutors’ Office Chief) had no intention of investigating, so I cut ties.”
• Lim Eun-jung said, “I deeply trust the investigation team.”

Men vs. Women: Handwashing Rates 21:11.

• Average handwashing rate: 84%, average duration: 4.8 seconds.
• The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency recommends scrubbing with soap and rinsing under running water for at least 30 seconds. Only 10% followed the proper method.
• Related Link.

Worth Reading.

AI Cannot Be Taught Like Coding.

• AI is not a new subject. Han Sung-hee (Professor at Seoul National University) pointed out, “Just as placing solar panels on an old house’s roof does not make it a smart home, cramming AI into existing classrooms does not constitute AI education.”
• Amano Hiroshi (Professor at Nagoya University) once advised, “Good innovation is not just about business—it’s about seeing the ‘next step.’”
• Han Sung-hee emphasized, “When solving dilemmas, we must not cling to current frameworks.” “Rather than creating another incandescent bulb to solve problems of the incandescent era, we need the boldness to reimagine education for the LED era,” he argued.
• Related Link.

Chanting “Restoration of Agreement” Before North Korea’s “Two States” Sloganeering.

• Park No-hae (poet) advised, “Do not sell the past to live today.”
• Kim Dong-yeop (Professor at the University of North Korean Studies) pointed out, “Aides to the Lee Jae-myung administration are failing to properly decode North Korea’s strategic messaging.”
• “Normative values such as ‘mutual non-aggression,’ ‘principles of peaceful resolution,’ and ‘spirit of exchange and cooperation’ are important principles,” but “the issue is not the principles themselves—the problem is that the methods once used to realize them are no longer effective.”
• Kim Dong-yeop noted, “Past achievements seem to function not as a ‘framework for explaining the present and designing the future’ but as a ‘shield for maintaining vested interests.’”
• “We must stir the ‘stagnant water.’ What is needed now is not memories of the past, but an accurate reading of the changing international order and North Korean strategy, along with a new narrative.”
• Related Link.

The Supreme Court’s Explanation: The More You Read, the Stranger It Gets.

• One key issue is whether the court properly reviewed and judged the case records. According to the Supreme Court’s written response to the National Assembly, the case was received on March 27, the prosecution’s appeal brief on April 10, and the defendant’s response on April 21.
• Yet it was assigned to the Second Division on April 22 and just two hours later referred to the full bench.
• Typically, cases are first reviewed by a smaller division, and only if consensus isn’t reached are they escalated to the full bench—a process that can take months. The National Intelligence Service comment case and the Park Geun-hye abuse-of-power case took five and one years, respectively. Moreover, in those cases, the first- and second-trial judgments were not conflicting.
• Over the past five years and six months, the Supreme Court resolved 1,822 cases within 35 days—most dismissed appeals. This is the first time since 2009 that a remand decision was made within 35 days.
• Regarding the ruling issued just before the presidential election, the court explained, “We judged it to be the timing with the least electoral influence.” Kwon Tae-ho (editorial director of The Hankyoreh) remarked, “How many citizens would agree with that?”
• Related Link.

Trump May Fall, but MAGA Remains.

• Trump is likely to fail. He may not even complete his term. Seo Bok-kyung (CEO of The Possible Research Institute) predicted, “Even if Trump falls, MAGA will remain—and the unequal, uncertain world where MAGA has taken root will persist.”
• “That is why it’s crucial to build, over the long term, solidarity among global democrats confronting the dangers of Trump and MAGA forces,” she argued. This is why we support the No Kings protests.
• Related Link.

Political Efficacy and the Illusion of Participation.

• It may seem like a single click or a line of comment changes the world, but it could merely be the sensation of participating without actual change. Populist politicians exploit this illusion.
• Lee Hyun-sang (JoongAng Ilbo Editorial Director) assessed, “Politicians are no longer policy designers but ‘emotion curators’—orchestrating and amplifying their supporters’ anger. They demonize opponents, strengthen internal cohesion, and maximize the sense of political efficacy.”
• Lee views this as “a crisis of party democracy.” He emphasized, “Even if it requires revising the Political Parties Act, we must adjust the influence of paying members and prevent hardcore supporters from dominating the party.”
• Related Link.

Politics Is Philosophy, but Action Must Be Science.

• From the president’s perspective, the ruling party is expected to discipline its ranks and persuade its base. Yet Rep. Jeong Cheong-rae (Democratic Party leader) merely declared, “I will fight in their place,” without reaching out further to the base. Kim Gwang-ho (Kyunghyang Shinmun columnist) noted, “’In their place’ does not necessarily mean ‘for their sake.’”
• “The science of politics is the process of expanding this ‘consent of the public,’ and deliberation is its method. When a party’s philosophy becomes societal value through deliberation, the political process becomes an aesthetic. The lack of beauty in today’s politics likely stems from the absence of this process.”
• Kim Gwang-ho advised, “A party’s ultimate goal is achieved when its philosophy resonates with public sentiment through scientific political action.” If not? “It remains merely a megaphone for party opinion.”
• “Like the Democratic Party government eight years ago, which rushed headlong into purging past wrongs, is the current Democratic Party not charging forward with excessive fervor, driven only by brute strength? I hope the Democratic Party has not fallen into the trap of ‘arrogant incompetence.’”
• Related Link.