SK Hynix ADS Surges 27.3%.

• At $193.92, this converts to 2,887,352 won based on a 10-share unit.
• The jump follows Barclays’ strong buy rating, calling it “capable of doubling.”
• Yesterday, SK Hynix’s KOSPI-listed shares closed 5.2% higher at 1,941,000 won.
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“Strengthening Property Tax: Option 1 or 2?”.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) proposed a real-time comment poll during a State Council meeting.
• “Among the citizens watching this broadcast, if you own one primary residence but agree that additional holding burdens should apply to ultra-luxury homes rather than standard protections, write 1. If not, write 2,” he said.
• A minute later, Im Ki-geun (Chief of the National Security Office) said, “90% agreed, 10% opposed.”
• When Lee asked again, “Write the first letter of the amount from which additional burdens should apply,” comments flooded in—3 billion won was the most common.
• Lee remarked, “Unexpected. I thought it would be around 5 billion won.” When Kim Yong-beom (Blue House Policy Chief) noted, “There’s significant support for 2 billion won,” Lee responded, “That would be disastrous.”
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“We’ll Take the Mayor’s Opinion in Writing.”.

• Oh Se-hoon (Seoul Mayor) requested a speaking opportunity at the State Council meeting after a long absence, but it was not accepted.
• Han Seong-hee (Prime Minister) said, “A public forum is scheduled, so we’ll take the mayor’s opinion in writing.”
• Oh Se-hoon pointed out, “There’s a high possibility the president’s situational awareness is inaccurate.”
• Chosun Ilbo criticized in an editorial, “The Seoul mayor, responsible for the field, was sidelined while comments mainly from supporters were heeded.”
• JoongAng Ilbo also noted, “While judging public opinion through unverified methods, they closed their ears to the Seoul mayor’s input,” adding, “The government must abandon the idea of solving the national real estate crisis—a problem requiring collective wisdom—through ‘pre-determined answer’-style discussions.”
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What Did Oh Se-hoon Want to Say?

• Oh Se-hoon held a briefing upon returning to Seoul City.
• “To respond to the crisis of rising sales prices and jeonse (lump-sum deposit) and monthly rents, the focus must shift from demand suppression to supply expansion,” he emphasized.
• First, accelerate private redevelopment projects,
• second, raise the LTV (loan-to-value ratio) for reconstruction and redevelopment association members’ relocation loans from 40% to 70%,
• third, ease restrictions on transferring association membership rights—these are the extraordinary measures needed, he argued.
• Fourth, he also advocated for relaxing regulations on private rental operators who purchase properties.
• Oh Se-hoon opposes strengthening property taxes or reducing long-term holding tax benefits for non-resident single-homeowners.
• Seoul apartment sales prices rose 11% year-on-year as of May. During the same period, jeonse and monthly rents increased by 6.8% and 6.6%, respectively—the highest since statistics began in 2015.
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Normalization, Not Price Suppression, Is the Goal.

• “The problem is that with so many deductions and exemptions, the tax system is losing its fundamental function.”
• Lee Jae-myung (President) emphasized, “A ‘fair tax system’ is paramount, and housing price stability is merely a secondary effect.”
• The implication: taxes are not being levied to control housing prices.

“I’m Homeless Now.”.

• Lee Jae-myung (President) said this during a State Council meeting.
• “It was the first and last home I ever bought during the IMF (foreign exchange crisis) after years of renting,” he said of the Bundang apartment that has now been sold. It was listed in February, and the transaction was finalized after completing procedures like land transaction permits.
• The apartment, purchased for 370 million won in 1998, sold for 3.03 billion won recently. It was reportedly sold below market value.
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What Matters Now.

Is This Neglecting Reform and Welfare?

• “Shouting loudly and making a spectacle might look impressive, but it only strengthens resistance and makes it harder to achieve results.”
• These were Lee Jae-myung’s words at the State Council meeting.
• “When getting a shot, tensing up breaks the needle. Reform is similar: persuade, minimize pain, gain broad empathy on legitimacy, and proceed sequentially and effectively so that ‘one day, you suddenly notice it’s changed.’”
• Some interpreted this as a veiled reference to the prosecution’s investigative authority.

Minimum Wage Rises to 10,720 Won in 2025.

• Up 380 won from this year’s 10,320 won—an increase of 3.7%.
• Labor and management’s initial demands were 12,000 won and 10,320 won, respectively.
• Public interest committee members proposed 10,720 won as a recommendation, while final revised offers from labor and management were 10,730 won and 10,700 won.
• The decision ultimately went to a vote, with 15 out of 27 committee members—including employer (management) representatives—choosing the 10,700 won proposal.
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Reviving Supplementary Investigative Authority, Democratic Party’s Fracture.

• Hong Ki-won (Democratic Party lawmaker), along with Ko Min-jung, Kwak Sang-eon, Kim Nam-hee, Mo Kyung-jong, and 11 other Democratic Party lawmakers, proposed an amendment to the Criminal Procedure Act.
• It stipulates that supplementary investigative authority should remain exceptional for crimes against socially vulnerable groups—such as sexual violence, child abuse, stalking—and livelihood crimes like voice phishing.
• Hong Ki-won argued, “The discussion should not be ‘how to weaken prosecutors’ but ‘how to better protect citizens.’”
• Seo Young-kyo (Democratic Party lawmaker) stated, “After consulting experts, it appears victims see little difference between police and prosecutors. Abolishing supplementary investigative authority poses no issue.”
• Han Byung-do (Democratic Party floor leader) insisted, “We must complete the final piece of prosecutorial reform.”
• Jeong Cheong-rae (former Democratic Party leader) posted on Facebook, “Complete abolition of supplementary investigative authority is the Democratic Party’s prosecutorial reform banner and symbol.” He added, “We will raise that banner higher.”
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“A Judicial Disaster Will Occur.”.

• Yang Hong-seok (Lee Gong Law Firm attorney), a former judicial reform advisory committee member, claimed, “The possibility is 100%.”
• As of late May, there were 133,696 unsolved cases nationwide in prosecutors’ offices. 45.6% of cases referred to prosecutors undergo supplementary investigation.
• If supplementary investigations are banned, most of these cases would be transferred to the police. The JoongAng Ilbo pointed out, “If cases that prosecutors could directly investigate become supplementary investigation requests, over 50% of prosecutors’ unsolved cases would fall to the police.”
• Jang Dong-hyeok (People Power Party leader) argued, “Handing all investigative power to the police and granting them absolute authority will create a monstrous police force.”
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Deep Dive.

Juvenile Offenders at 13: Too Lenient?

• Lee Jae-myung (President) said at a State Council meeting, “Let’s first set the age lower—many countries set it at 12”—but added, “It’s a difficult topic; let’s not decide today.”
• Juvenile offenders rose from 9,606 in 2020 to 21,095 in 2025, a 2.2-fold increase. Theft and violence accounted for 74%, while rape and molestation were 4%.
• Bae Sang-gyun (Research Fellow at the Korean Criminal and Legal Policy Research Institute) noted, “Systemic improvements, including strengthening protective measures, are more critical than simply lowering the age.”
• Kang Ji-myeong (Senior Researcher at Sungkyunkwan University’s Legal Research Institute) criticized, “The core issue is preventing delinquency and recidivism, yet the State Council is only skirting the problem.”
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3-4-5 Vision.

• Ministry of Economy and Finance raised this year’s growth forecast from 2.0% to 3.0%.
• Aiming to achieve top-four global exports and $50,000 per capita national income within the presidential term.
• National debt ratio will decrease from 50.6% to 47.0%.
• Huh Jung (Sogang University professor) pointed out, “The priority now should be discovering new growth engines to resolve semiconductor overdependence, rather than focusing on growth rate figures.”
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Semiconductor Industry Employment Multiplier: 2.4 Jobs.

• The manufacturing sector average of 5.1 jobs is far from being met.
• Employment growth is projected to stall at 150,000—lowest since 2020. This is even lower than the initial 160,000 forecasted earlier this year.
• Over 400,000 young people are “economically inactive,” and more than 1.05 million remain unemployed.
• Woo Suk-jin (Myongji University professor) noted, “K-shaped inequality, where income concentrates among a few, is worsening,” and emphasized, “The entire system must be redesigned to strengthen social safety nets—such as job-training support, unemployment benefits—and expand capital’s burden-sharing to prevent the employment base from collapsing.”
• The Hankyoreh criticized in an editorial, “Policies to address widening income and asset gaps are nowhere to be seen.”
• It warned, “Growth-centric policies alone cannot break the vicious cycle of shrinking employment, stagnant incomes, and weak domestic demand.”
• The Kyunghyang Shinmun argued in an editorial, “If jobless growth and polarization remain unresolved, 3% growth will be an empty promise,” and asked, “It’s time to ask: what kind of growth are we pursuing?”
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Roller-Coaster Kospi: V-Shaped Rebound.

• It fell 9.0% one day, then 5.3% the next, hit bottom, and closed with a 0.7% rebound. Institutions and foreigners bought; individuals sold.
• The Kospi 200 Volatility Index, dubbed the “fear gauge,” hit 83.97—above 50 indicates extreme panic.
• Goldman Sachs analyzed, “Rapid deleveraging (forced selling) of single-stock leveraged ETFs amplified intraday volatility.”
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Kospi Shaking Nasdaq.

• Semiconductor stocks used to move from the U.S. to Asia, but now the Korean market initiates influence from Asia to the U.S.
• Alexander Altman (Barclays Global Head of Equity Tactical Strategy) said, “The daily additional buy-sell volumes generated by Korea’s leveraged ETFs are terrifying,” adding, “It keeps me awake at night.”
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National Pension Service Stock Valuation Surges by 333 Trillion Won.

• The valuation rose from 129 trillion won in December 2024 to 462 trillion won as of July 10 this year. This is based on Kyunghyang Shinmun and Leaders Index’s analysis of stock prices for listed companies where the National Pension Service holds over 5% equity.
• Korean stocks now account for over 27% of total assets under management (1,671 trillion won). The target allocation is 20.8%, meaning significant reduction is required.

Another Take.

Hormuz Strait Toll Reversal.

• If 20% of cargo must be paid as toll, a 2-million-barrel oil tanker would owe $3 million—45 billion won in local currency.
• The U.S., which pressured for unconditional access, now demanding tolls is both baseless and inherently absurd.
• They reversed course within a day and resumed airstrikes.

Democratic Party Convention Adopts Preference Voting System.

• Jeong Cheong-rae (former Democratic Party leader) ultimately accepted it.
• When three or more candidates run and no one secures a majority in the first round, the lowest-polling candidate is eliminated, and their second-preference votes are redistributed to remaining candidates.
• Lee Seong-yoon (Democratic Party lawmaker), classified as pro-Cheong, resigned from his Supreme Council position. “It felt like being cornered in a boxing ring and pummeled for a week,” he said.
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America Is Now a Bigger Concern Than China.

• More companies are adopting Chinese AI models. Cost reduction is a factor, but there’s a growing awareness that dependence on the U.S. must be reduced. According to OpenRouter, Chinese models have already surpassed U.S. models in token consumption.
• U.S. frontier model token prices are 10–60 times higher than those of China’s OpenWeave models. The export ban on Anthropic’s Mistral has deepened distrust.
• Per Roman (Bullhound Capital founder) said, “Two years ago, I worried about China. Now, the U.S. is the bigger concern.”
• Related Link.

Seoul Apartment Sale-Lease Gap Widens to 887 Million Won.

• It has significantly widened from 735 million won a year ago.
• While lease prices rose 7.6%, sale prices surged 14.6%.

Darkened Drug Treatment Ward.

• National Bugok Hospital’s drug treatment ward has not accepted patients since April.
• There are no doctors. Few hospitals specialize in drug addiction treatment.
• Bugok Hospital and Chamsarang Hospital handle 74% of cases.
• The quota for psychiatrists is 11, but only 1–3 have remained.
• Even job postings received no inquiries.
• The minimum annual salary is 70.49 million won, with no upper limit—potentially 200–300 million won—but this is half the private sector’s level.
• Jang Ok-jin (Haeundae Paik Hospital professor) said, “Ten drug addiction patients require the same effort as 60 general psychiatric patients.”
• “Alcoholism has established protocols, but with new drugs constantly emerging, treatment must adapt to patients’ rapidly changing conditions.”
• Jeong In-young (National Bugok Hospital medical director, acting head) said, “I will stay as long as my health permits.”

The Fix.

“The Yongin Cluster Must Be Abandoned.”.

• Jeon Young-hwan (Energy Transition Forum senior advisor) pointed out, “The reality that the Yongin semiconductor cluster is impossible must be acknowledged.”
• “How can we bring in electricity without transmission lines? They say underground cabling, but 345kV lines can only go 40km. Eventually, you need towers, but residents oppose them. With four fabs, you’d need about 6GW, requiring six 345kV lines. I don’t think it’s feasible. The first shovel hasn’t even hit the ground. How can it happen?”
• Jeon Young-hwan emphasized, “The problem isn’t a lack of electricity—it’s the inability to transmit it.” The Honam region’s substations are saturated, so new solar cannot be connected, and renewable projects are blocked due to transmission shortages. Even the 2030 renewable targets remain unlinked to the grid.
• “Transmission timelines vary by region. In Honam, lines only need to reach factories. The distances are short, and locals don’t oppose them. It takes 2–3 years. If factories relocate, they could draw power from the Hanbit nuclear plant in Yeonggwang, freeing up lines to the capital region and allowing more renewables in Saemangeum. The moment factories move, that capacity unlocks for renewables.”
• Jeon Young-hwan noted, “Nuclear requires flexible resources like LNG or renewables.” He criticized the logic of adding nuclear to offset renewables’ intermittency as “backward causation.”
• Jeon Young-hwan stressed, “The transmission structure itself must change.” “Currently, all lines flow to the capital, but regional hubs should be connected—creating an energy highway where Honam and Yeongnam exchange renewables,” he argued.
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Factories Must Go Where the Power Is.

• The government’s mega-projects require 39.7 GW of power.
• First, for Yongin: 3 GW could be covered by an LNG plant within the industrial complex, but the remaining 12 GW must be drawn from external sources. Underground cabling has limits, and building transmission lines is far from simple.
• Second, the 6.3 GW for the Southwest region poses no problem. Gwangju-Jeonnam already produces 72.8 TWh but uses only 43 TWh, exporting surplus power to the capital region or curtailing output. The Hanbit nuclear plant supplies 5.9 GW stably, and renewable energy capacity is 6 GW. The government plans to expand Jeonnam’s renewables to 37.8 GW by 2035.
• Third, what about AI data centers? Only vague targets exist—no concrete plans. For phase one, SK (5 GW), GS (2.4 GW), and Naver (1 GW) can locate where power is available. For the remaining 10 GW, Jeon Young-hwan (Energy Transition Forum senior advisor) says, “We’ll see where the power is and go there.”

Why Trump’s Account Is Being Praised—Unusually.

• The U.S. government will deposit $1,000 into accounts for children born after 2025 and invest it in a fund linked to the S&P 500.
• Patrick Jenkins (Financial Times columnist) called it “a model the world should emulate.”
• Ted Cruz (Republican Senator) emphasized, “It’s a project to make every child and every American a capitalist.” Larry Fink (BlackRock CEO) assessed, “Every newborn gains a stake in the nation’s future.”
• If the S&P 500 follows historical returns, the $1,000 could grow to over $6,000 by the child’s 18th birthday.
• Critics note the idea should not have been politicized. Whether it will continue past Trump’s term in 2028 remains uncertain.
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Let’s Create a Korean-Style Social Solidarity Fund.

• This idea emerged at a discussion hosted by the Ministry of Employment and Labor.
• Jeong Heung-joon (Seoul University of Science and Technology professor) proposed, “Let’s impose a special-purpose tax on large corporations’ excess profits.” The idea is to use the funds for youth hiring and support for small-to-medium enterprise workers.
• Ryu Je-gang (Korean Confederation of Trade Unions policy director) said, “To redistribute massive profits concentrated in a few large corporations, tax and fiscal discussions—such as corporate tax reform—are necessary.”
• Lee Gyeore (Korean Confederation of Trade Unions Youth Committee chairperson) argued, “A new top corporate tax bracket of 30–35% should be established to expand tax revenue.”
• Yoon Dong-yeol (Konkuk University professor) countered, “A social solidarity wage that simply redistributes large corporations’ excess profits has clear limitations, such as stifling investment and industry-specific volatility.”
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Assisted Dying? The Illusion of a Clean Death.

• Assisted dying is physician-assisted suicide. Shin Seong-jun (Professor, Dongguk University College of Medicine) warned, “In Korean society, where elderly poverty and isolation are severe, and the perception of not burdening one’s children is strong, this could lead to unintended side effects.”
• Assisted dying is not a beautiful or peaceful death. In the final moments, many instinctively spit out the medication, and for families witnessing the entire process, it becomes a heavy and painful experience.
• Shin emphasized, “Once a system is established, it does not remain within the initially set boundaries.” Suicide cannot be a clean conclusion. The focus should be on finding ways to create a less painful and more peaceful final moment.
• Related Link.

ICYMI.

Mocking AI Is Like Spitting at the Sky.

• Masayoshi Son (SoftBank Group CEO) predicted that AI will account for 20% of global GDP by 2040. Of the $46 trillion, profits are expected to reach half.
• Data centers will require 3 TW of power, equivalent to one-third of the world’s total generation capacity.
• SoftBank was selected as the operator for a $33 billion gas power plant project, part of Japan’s $550 billion investment in the U.S.
• Related Link.

How to Sleep Your Way to Mars.

• Films often feature characters crossing space in cryogenic sleep, but such technology doesn’t exist yet. NASA is researching ways to induce hibernation.
• A one-way trip to Mars takes 6–9 months, and astronauts must stay at least a year to catch the optimal orbit for return. To survive 2.5 years, over 300kg of food is required. Sleeping during the journey would reduce the need for food and water.
• Related Link.

Worth Reading.

Preserving Prosecutorial Power Revives Political Prosecutors.

• Lee Jae-sung (Hankyoreh columnist) warned, “The prosecution’s investigative authority expands its influence through the media’s ‘magic golden stick,’ ultimately connecting to politics.”
• While police leniency in investigations is controversial, the real master of this field remains the prosecution. Lee criticized, “Attempts to separate investigation and prosecution aim to reform a system where prosecutors have abused power at the center of criminal procedures. Yet arguing that investigative authority must remain with a public prosecution office to check the police is irresponsible regression—it inverts cause and effect.”
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Jeonbuk’s Fourfold Exclusion Theory.

• “Jeonbuk has suffered threefold exclusion: once from capital region-centric policies, twice from the Yeongnam-Yeonghon discrimination during the so-called military regimes, and thrice by being further marginalized within the Honam region itself, especially compared to Gwangju and South Jeolla.”
• The “threefold exclusion” theory was a campaign slogan used by Lee Jae-myung (President). The “fourfold exclusion” adds a fourth layer: marginalization in the semiconductor industry.
• In 1966, Seoul’s population was 3.8 million, while Jeonbuk’s was 2.52 million. Today? It has shrunk to 1.74 million.
• Kang Jun-man (Professor at Jeonbuk National University) pointed out, “Jeonbuk has long endured discrimination and disadvantages due to the ‘dictatorship of categories,’ yet has never attempted to break free from its subordinate position to Gwangju and South Jeolla.”
• “It’s not that Gwangju and South Jeolla are inherently bad. The issue is the ‘dictatorship of categories’ imposed by the Honam label. Yet Gwangju and South Jeolla are not exempt from blame—they remain indifferent and insensitive to Jeonbuk’s plight under this ‘dictatorship of categories,’ often withholding even minimal consideration.”
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Failing to Act on What Can Be Done.

• Choi Eun-young (Director of the Korea Urban Research Institute) stated, “Tax policy alone cannot stabilize housing prices,” adding, “The Lee Jae-myung administration seems unwilling to do what it can.” She emphasized, “To avoid repeating the mistakes of the Moon Jae-in government, stronger-than-expected measures to curb housing prices must be introduced.”
• The current government’s failure to reverse Yoon Suk-yeol’s tax cuts for the wealthy is also frustrating. The fair market value ratio must be corrected first.
• South Korea’s effective property tax rate stands at 0.15%. Choi asked, “Is this truly the level our society has agreed upon?”
• She also argued that redevelopment and reconstruction are not solutions: “This approach eliminates affordable housing to supply expensive apartments. It does not stabilize housing prices.”
• For supply to lower prices, a project on the scale of Roh Tae-woo’s 2 million housing units is needed. The answer lies in expanding public rental and public sale housing.
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Budget Allocation Voting.

• It is a proposal by Lee Sang-min (Research Fellow at the Korea Institute of Public Finance) to share budget allocation rights with citizens. If each person is given the right to allocate 100,000 won, 47 million people aged 14 and over could distribute 4.7 trillion won.
• They could pour all 100,000 won into a preferred program—rental housing support, job creation, or stability for people with disabilities—or split it across multiple initiatives.
• The program’s goal is not budget distribution but shifting the terrain of debate. Lee emphasized, “A belief emerges that taxes I pay can fund projects I want.” The argument: “Giving budgets is more democratic and more productive than giving cash.”
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